For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Output from BayesElo program
| Rank | Player name | Points | EPoints | StdDev | ERank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Laser 181205 | 2.5 | 15.95 | 3.71 | 3.29 | 28 | 20 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Ginkgo 2.18b | 2.5 | 15.68 | 3.69 | 3.43 | 25 | 20 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| 3 | LCZero v19-TP-11248/v19.1-RC2-11248/v19.1-11248 | 1.5 | 15.49 | 2.52 | 3.28 | 15 | 23 | 22 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 4 |
| 4 | Chiron S14 | 2.0 | 15.10 | 4.23 | 3.84 | 24 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| 5 | KomodoMCTS 2180.00/2210.00/2217.00/2221.00 | 2.0 | 13.62 | 2.35 | 4.64 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 19 | 18 | 15 | 11 |
| 6 | Fizbo 2 | 2.0 | 12.96 | 2.29 | 5.16 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 16 |
| 7 | Jonny 8.1 | 1.5 | 12.19 | 2.21 | 5.77 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 21 | 22 |
| 8 | Fritz 16.10 | 1.0 | 11.01 | 2.27 | 6.59 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 25 |
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Laser 181205 | 27.902% | 19.975% | 47.877% | 13.648% | 10.192% | 7.981% | 7.033% | 13.269% | 6.367% | 6.902% | |||||
| 2. | Ginkgo 2.18b | 25.105% | 19.775% | 44.880% | 13.832% | 10.263% | 8.466% | 7.529% | 15.030% | 7.102% | 7.928% | |||||
| 3. | Chiron S14 | 24.724% | 15.632% | 40.356% | 12.028% | 9.624% | 8.359% | 7.781% | 21.852% | 8.506% | 13.346% | |||||
| 4. | LCZero v19.1-11248 | 15.399% | 23.292% | 38.691% | 21.543% | 15.757% | 10.593% | 7.097% | 6.319% | 4.191% | 2.128% | |||||
| 5. | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | 3.610% | 9.927% | 13.537% | 15.751% | 18.484% | 17.821% | 15.250% | 19.157% | 11.754% | 7.403% | |||||
| 6. | Fizbo 2 | 2.058% | 6.414% | 8.472% | 11.761% | 16.153% | 18.638% | 18.227% | 26.749% | 16.142% | 10.607% | |||||
| 7. | Jonny 8.1 | 0.871% | 3.455% | 4.326% | 7.550% | 12.588% | 16.949% | 20.170% | 38.417% | 21.475% | 16.942% | |||||
| 8. | Fritz 16.10 | 0.331% | 1.530% | 1.861% | 3.887% | 6.939% | 11.193% | 16.913% | 59.207% | 24.463% | 34.744% |
Speculate LCZero v19.1-11248 – Chiron S14 1-0
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Laser 181205 | 29.934% | 19.292% | 49.226% | 13.200% | 10.050% | 8.018% | 6.862% | 12.644% | 6.376% | 6.268% | |||||
| 2. | Ginkgo 2.18b | 27.274% | 18.974% | 46.248% | 13.577% | 10.392% | 8.329% | 7.351% | 14.103% | 6.776% | 7.327% | |||||
| 3. | LCZero v19.1-11248 | 22.439% | 27.183% | 49.622% | 21.425% | 13.105% | 7.860% | 4.556% | 3.432% | 2.447% | 0.985% | |||||
| 4. | Chiron S14 | 12.753% | 12.153% | 24.906% | 11.727% | 10.680% | 9.997% | 10.406% | 32.284% | 11.987% | 20.297% | |||||
| 5. | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | 4.117% | 10.438% | 14.555% | 16.224% | 18.919% | 17.872% | 14.815% | 17.615% | 11.165% | 6.450% | |||||
| 6. | Fizbo 2 | 2.221% | 6.725% | 8.946% | 12.190% | 17.098% | 18.964% | 18.193% | 24.609% | 15.141% | 9.468% | |||||
| 7. | Jonny 8.1 | 0.906% | 3.649% | 4.555% | 7.934% | 12.750% | 17.482% | 20.542% | 36.737% | 20.881% | 15.856% | |||||
| 8. | Fritz 16.10 | 0.356% | 1.586% | 1.942% | 3.723% | 7.006% | 11.478% | 17.275% | 58.576% | 25.227% | 33.349% |
Speculate LCZero v19.1-11248 – Chiron S14 1/2-1/2
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Laser 181205 | 27.975% | 19.532% | 47.507% | 13.454% | 10.014% | 8.204% | 6.988% | 13.833% | 6.595% | 7.238% | |||||
| 2. | Chiron S14 | 26.452% | 18.510% | 44.962% | 13.375% | 10.178% | 8.265% | 7.584% | 15.636% | 7.216% | 8.420% | |||||
| 3. | Ginkgo 2.18b | 25.144% | 19.264% | 44.408% | 13.568% | 10.475% | 8.471% | 7.629% | 15.449% | 7.173% | 8.276% | |||||
| 4. | LCZero v19.1-11248 | 13.662% | 22.089% | 35.751% | 22.140% | 16.757% | 11.271% | 7.448% | 6.633% | 4.426% | 2.207% | |||||
| 5. | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | 3.571% | 9.501% | 13.072% | 15.113% | 18.229% | 17.919% | 15.414% | 20.253% | 12.326% | 7.927% | |||||
| 6. | Fizbo 2 | 1.966% | 6.081% | 8.047% | 11.259% | 15.633% | 18.343% | 18.640% | 28.078% | 16.747% | 11.331% | |||||
| 7. | Jonny 8.1 | 0.880% | 3.443% | 4.323% | 7.372% | 11.986% | 16.601% | 20.081% | 39.637% | 21.428% | 18.209% | |||||
| 8. | Fritz 16.10 | 0.350% | 1.580% | 1.930% | 3.719% | 6.728% | 10.926% | 16.216% | 60.481% | 24.089% | 36.392% |
Speculate LCZero v19.1-11248 – Chiron S14 0-1
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Chiron S14 | 44.046% | 20.258% | 64.304% | 11.228% | 7.225% | 5.234% | 4.243% | 7.766% | 3.958% | 3.808% | |||||
| 2. | Laser 181205 | 23.261% | 22.151% | 45.412% | 14.716% | 10.170% | 8.381% | 7.151% | 14.170% | 6.665% | 7.505% | |||||
| 3. | Ginkgo 2.18b | 20.585% | 21.050% | 41.635% | 15.328% | 10.856% | 8.757% | 7.786% | 15.638% | 7.351% | 8.287% | |||||
| 4. | LCZero v19.1-11248 | 7.038% | 17.465% | 24.503% | 21.363% | 18.808% | 14.259% | 10.254% | 10.813% | 6.853% | 3.960% | |||||
| 5. | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | 2.659% | 8.950% | 11.609% | 15.359% | 18.413% | 18.005% | 15.823% | 20.791% | 12.391% | 8.400% | |||||
| 6. | Fizbo 2 | 1.501% | 5.603% | 7.104% | 10.927% | 15.433% | 18.336% | 18.893% | 29.307% | 17.167% | 12.140% | |||||
| 7. | Jonny 8.1 | 0.669% | 3.141% | 3.810% | 7.354% | 12.214% | 16.231% | 19.933% | 40.458% | 21.646% | 18.812% | |||||
| 8. | Fritz 16.10 | 0.241% | 1.382% | 1.623% | 3.725% | 6.881% | 10.797% | 15.917% | 61.057% | 23.969% | 37.088% |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.93h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
| UTC | No | White | Black |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-12-15 21:52 | 17 | Chiron S14 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-15 23:48 | 18 | Ginkgo 2.18b | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-16 01:43 | 19 | Laser 181205 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-16 03:39 | 20 | Fritz 16.10 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-16 05:34 | 21 | Fizbo 2 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-16 07:30 | 22 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-16 09:25 | 23 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-16 11:21 | 24 | Chiron S14 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-16 13:16 | 25 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-16 15:12 | 26 | Laser 181205 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-16 17:07 | 27 | Fritz 16.10 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-16 19:03 | 28 | Jonny 8.1 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-16 20:58 | 29 | Fizbo 2 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-16 22:54 | 30 | Jonny 8.1 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-17 00:49 | 31 | Fritz 16.10 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-17 02:45 | 32 | Laser 181205 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-17 04:40 | 33 | Laser 181205 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-17 06:36 | 34 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-17 08:31 | 35 | Chiron S14 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-17 10:27 | 36 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-17 12:22 | 37 | Fizbo 2 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-17 14:18 | 38 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-17 16:13 | 39 | Jonny 8.1 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-17 18:09 | 40 | Fritz 16.10 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-17 20:04 | 41 | Fritz 16.10 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-17 22:00 | 42 | Laser 181205 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-17 23:55 | 43 | Ginkgo 2.18b | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-18 01:51 | 44 | Chiron S14 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-18 03:46 | 45 | Fizbo 2 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-18 05:42 | 46 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-18 07:37 | 47 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-18 09:33 | 48 | Jonny 8.1 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-18 11:28 | 49 | Jonny 8.1 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-18 13:24 | 50 | Fritz 16.10 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-18 15:19 | 51 | Laser 181205 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-18 17:15 | 52 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-18 19:10 | 53 | Fizbo 2 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-18 21:06 | 54 | Chiron S14 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-18 23:01 | 55 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-19 00:57 | 56 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-19 02:52 | 57 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-19 04:48 | 58 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-19 06:43 | 59 | Chiron S14 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-19 08:39 | 60 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-19 10:34 | 61 | Fizbo 2 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-19 12:30 | 62 | Fritz 16.10 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-19 14:25 | 63 | Jonny 8.1 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-19 16:21 | 64 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-19 18:16 | 65 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-19 20:12 | 66 | Chiron S14 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-19 22:07 | 67 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-20 00:03 | 68 | Laser 181205 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-20 01:58 | 69 | Fizbo 2 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-20 03:54 | 70 | Jonny 8.1 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-20 05:49 | 71 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-20 07:45 | 72 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-20 09:40 | 73 | Chiron S14 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-20 11:36 | 74 | Ginkgo 2.18b | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-20 13:31 | 75 | Laser 181205 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-20 15:27 | 76 | Fritz 16.10 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-20 17:22 | 77 | Fizbo 2 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-20 19:18 | 78 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-20 21:13 | 79 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-20 23:09 | 80 | Chiron S14 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-21 01:04 | 81 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-21 03:00 | 82 | Laser 181205 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-21 04:55 | 83 | Fritz 16.10 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-21 06:51 | 84 | Jonny 8.1 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-21 08:46 | 85 | Fizbo 2 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-21 10:42 | 86 | Jonny 8.1 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-21 12:37 | 87 | Fritz 16.10 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-21 14:33 | 88 | Laser 181205 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-21 16:28 | 89 | Laser 181205 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-21 18:24 | 90 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-21 20:19 | 91 | Chiron S14 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-21 22:15 | 92 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-22 00:10 | 93 | Fizbo 2 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-22 02:06 | 94 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-22 04:01 | 95 | Jonny 8.1 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-22 05:57 | 96 | Fritz 16.10 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-22 07:52 | 97 | Fritz 16.10 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-22 09:48 | 98 | Laser 181205 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-22 11:43 | 99 | Ginkgo 2.18b | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-22 13:39 | 100 | Chiron S14 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-22 15:34 | 101 | Fizbo 2 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-22 17:30 | 102 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-22 19:25 | 103 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-22 21:21 | 104 | Jonny 8.1 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-22 23:16 | 105 | Jonny 8.1 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-23 01:12 | 106 | Fritz 16.10 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-23 03:07 | 107 | Laser 181205 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-23 05:03 | 108 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-23 06:58 | 109 | Fizbo 2 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-23 08:54 | 110 | Chiron S14 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-23 10:49 | 111 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-23 12:45 | 112 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Jonny 8.1 |