For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Output from BayesElo program
| Rank | Player name | Points | EPoints | StdDev | ERank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiron S14 | 1.0 | 17.25 | 5.91 | 3.15 | 47 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | LCZero v19-TP-11248/v19.1-RC2-11248/v19.1-11248 | 0.5 | 16.16 | 2.70 | 2.89 | 20 | 30 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Laser 181205 | 1.0 | 13.87 | 4.43 | 4.50 | 15 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | KomodoMCTS 2180.00/2210.00/2217.00/2221.00 | 0.5 | 13.80 | 2.63 | 4.47 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 11 |
| 5 | Fizbo 2 | 1.0 | 13.23 | 2.44 | 4.90 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 14 |
| 6 | Ginkgo 2.18b | 1.0 | 13.07 | 4.01 | 4.95 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 14 |
| 7 | Jonny 8.1 | 0.5 | 12.90 | 2.49 | 5.15 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 16 |
| 8 | Fritz 16.10 | 0.5 | 11.71 | 2.44 | 5.99 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 25 |
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Chiron S14 | 46.718% | 11.785% | 58.503% | 6.950% | 5.291% | 4.894% | 4.870% | 19.492% | 6.341% | 13.151% | |||||
| 2. | LCZero v19.1-11248 | 19.318% | 29.327% | 48.645% | 20.599% | 13.137% | 8.139% | 5.281% | 4.199% | 2.912% | 1.287% | |||||
| 3. | Laser 181205 | 14.693% | 15.839% | 30.532% | 11.384% | 9.560% | 8.727% | 9.106% | 30.691% | 11.686% | 19.005% | |||||
| 4. | Ginkgo 2.18b | 9.319% | 12.863% | 22.182% | 11.455% | 10.303% | 10.018% | 11.047% | 34.995% | 13.849% | 21.146% | |||||
| 5. | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | 4.725% | 12.188% | 16.913% | 17.142% | 17.516% | 16.659% | 14.420% | 17.350% | 10.970% | 6.380% | |||||
| 6. | Fizbo 2 | 2.470% | 7.977% | 10.447% | 13.761% | 17.703% | 18.622% | 17.407% | 22.060% | 14.009% | 8.051% | |||||
| 7. | Jonny 8.1 | 1.991% | 6.948% | 8.939% | 12.181% | 16.026% | 18.113% | 18.153% | 26.588% | 16.269% | 10.319% | |||||
| 8. | Fritz 16.10 | 0.766% | 3.073% | 3.839% | 6.528% | 10.464% | 14.828% | 19.716% | 44.625% | 23.964% | 20.661% |
Speculate Jonny 8.1 – Chiron S14 1-0
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | LCZero v19.1-11248 | 29.086% | 26.031% | 55.117% | 17.765% | 11.518% | 7.345% | 4.648% | 3.607% | 2.620% | 0.987% | |||||
| 2. | Laser 181205 | 19.817% | 13.431% | 33.248% | 10.457% | 9.143% | 8.805% | 9.696% | 28.651% | 12.416% | 16.235% | |||||
| 3. | Chiron S14 | 18.218% | 10.216% | 28.434% | 7.657% | 6.915% | 7.280% | 8.597% | 41.117% | 12.485% | 28.632% | |||||
| 4. | Ginkgo 2.18b | 15.473% | 12.025% | 27.498% | 9.801% | 8.745% | 9.063% | 10.451% | 34.442% | 14.251% | 20.191% | |||||
| 5. | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | 7.647% | 14.194% | 21.841% | 16.982% | 17.364% | 16.028% | 13.258% | 14.527% | 9.650% | 4.877% | |||||
| 6. | Jonny 8.1 | 4.355% | 10.713% | 15.068% | 15.866% | 18.169% | 18.183% | 16.044% | 16.670% | 11.435% | 5.235% | |||||
| 7. | Fizbo 2 | 4.300% | 9.964% | 14.264% | 14.872% | 17.759% | 18.138% | 16.694% | 18.273% | 12.398% | 5.875% | |||||
| 8. | Fritz 16.10 | 1.104% | 3.426% | 4.530% | 6.600% | 10.387% | 15.158% | 20.612% | 42.713% | 24.745% | 17.968% |
Speculate Jonny 8.1 – Chiron S14 1/2-1/2
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Chiron S14 | 36.663% | 15.191% | 51.854% | 9.547% | 7.382% | 6.575% | 6.499% | 18.143% | 7.408% | 10.735% | |||||
| 2. | LCZero v19.1-11248 | 22.538% | 27.643% | 50.181% | 19.788% | 12.615% | 8.146% | 4.993% | 4.277% | 2.970% | 1.307% | |||||
| 3. | Laser 181205 | 16.484% | 14.520% | 31.004% | 11.140% | 9.271% | 8.697% | 9.222% | 30.666% | 11.681% | 18.985% | |||||
| 4. | Ginkgo 2.18b | 12.804% | 12.348% | 25.152% | 10.363% | 9.290% | 8.813% | 9.662% | 36.720% | 12.986% | 23.734% | |||||
| 5. | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | 5.594% | 12.211% | 17.805% | 16.510% | 17.692% | 16.407% | 14.315% | 17.271% | 10.926% | 6.345% | |||||
| 6. | Fizbo 2 | 2.931% | 8.137% | 11.068% | 13.860% | 17.329% | 18.419% | 17.471% | 21.853% | 14.043% | 7.810% | |||||
| 7. | Jonny 8.1 | 2.076% | 6.865% | 8.941% | 12.419% | 16.447% | 18.389% | 18.444% | 25.360% | 15.767% | 9.593% | |||||
| 8. | Fritz 16.10 | 0.910% | 3.085% | 3.995% | 6.373% | 9.974% | 14.554% | 19.394% | 45.710% | 24.219% | 21.491% |
Speculate Jonny 8.1 – Chiron S14 0-1
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | 1-2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7-8. | 7. | 8. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Chiron S14 | 67.252% | 11.588% | 78.840% | 5.620% | 3.665% | 2.908% | 2.553% | 6.414% | 2.683% | 3.731% | |||||
| 2. | LCZero v19.1-11248 | 11.273% | 31.367% | 42.640% | 23.493% | 14.445% | 9.045% | 5.598% | 4.779% | 3.291% | 1.488% | |||||
| 3. | Laser 181205 | 9.296% | 17.633% | 26.929% | 12.568% | 10.229% | 9.143% | 9.516% | 31.615% | 11.909% | 19.706% | |||||
| 4. | Ginkgo 2.18b | 7.273% | 14.758% | 22.031% | 11.520% | 9.947% | 9.211% | 9.942% | 37.349% | 12.975% | 24.374% | |||||
| 5. | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | 2.569% | 10.718% | 13.287% | 16.916% | 18.587% | 17.524% | 14.973% | 18.713% | 11.766% | 6.947% | |||||
| 6. | Fizbo 2 | 1.290% | 6.673% | 7.963% | 13.211% | 17.615% | 19.279% | 18.067% | 23.865% | 14.958% | 8.907% | |||||
| 7. | Jonny 8.1 | 0.646% | 4.432% | 5.078% | 9.864% | 14.709% | 18.061% | 19.976% | 32.312% | 18.977% | 13.335% | |||||
| 8. | Fritz 16.10 | 0.401% | 2.831% | 3.232% | 6.808% | 10.803% | 14.829% | 19.375% | 44.953% | 23.441% | 21.512% |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.89h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
| UTC | No | White | Black |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-12-15 04:17 | 8 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-15 06:10 | 9 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-15 08:03 | 10 | Chiron S14 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-15 09:57 | 11 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-15 11:50 | 12 | Laser 181205 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-15 13:43 | 13 | Fizbo 2 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-15 15:36 | 14 | Jonny 8.1 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-15 17:30 | 15 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-15 19:23 | 16 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-15 21:16 | 17 | Chiron S14 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-15 23:09 | 18 | Ginkgo 2.18b | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-16 01:03 | 19 | Laser 181205 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-16 02:56 | 20 | Fritz 16.10 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-16 04:49 | 21 | Fizbo 2 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-16 06:42 | 22 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-16 08:36 | 23 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-16 10:29 | 24 | Chiron S14 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-16 12:22 | 25 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-16 14:15 | 26 | Laser 181205 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-16 16:09 | 27 | Fritz 16.10 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-16 18:02 | 28 | Jonny 8.1 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-16 19:55 | 29 | Fizbo 2 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-16 21:48 | 30 | Jonny 8.1 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-16 23:42 | 31 | Fritz 16.10 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-17 01:35 | 32 | Laser 181205 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-17 03:28 | 33 | Laser 181205 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-17 05:21 | 34 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-17 07:15 | 35 | Chiron S14 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-17 09:08 | 36 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-17 11:01 | 37 | Fizbo 2 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-17 12:54 | 38 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-17 14:47 | 39 | Jonny 8.1 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-17 16:41 | 40 | Fritz 16.10 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-17 18:34 | 41 | Fritz 16.10 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-17 20:27 | 42 | Laser 181205 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-17 22:20 | 43 | Ginkgo 2.18b | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-18 00:14 | 44 | Chiron S14 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-18 02:07 | 45 | Fizbo 2 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-18 04:00 | 46 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-18 05:53 | 47 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-18 07:47 | 48 | Jonny 8.1 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-18 09:40 | 49 | Jonny 8.1 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-18 11:33 | 50 | Fritz 16.10 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-18 13:26 | 51 | Laser 181205 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-18 15:20 | 52 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-18 17:13 | 53 | Fizbo 2 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-18 19:06 | 54 | Chiron S14 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-18 20:59 | 55 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-18 22:53 | 56 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-19 00:46 | 57 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-19 02:39 | 58 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-19 04:32 | 59 | Chiron S14 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-19 06:26 | 60 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-19 08:19 | 61 | Fizbo 2 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-19 10:12 | 62 | Fritz 16.10 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-19 12:05 | 63 | Jonny 8.1 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-19 13:59 | 64 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-19 15:52 | 65 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-19 17:45 | 66 | Chiron S14 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-19 19:38 | 67 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-19 21:31 | 68 | Laser 181205 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-19 23:25 | 69 | Fizbo 2 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-20 01:18 | 70 | Jonny 8.1 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-20 03:11 | 71 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-20 05:04 | 72 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-20 06:58 | 73 | Chiron S14 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-20 08:51 | 74 | Ginkgo 2.18b | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-20 10:44 | 75 | Laser 181205 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-20 12:37 | 76 | Fritz 16.10 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-20 14:31 | 77 | Fizbo 2 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-20 16:24 | 78 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-20 18:17 | 79 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-20 20:10 | 80 | Chiron S14 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-20 22:04 | 81 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-20 23:57 | 82 | Laser 181205 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-21 01:50 | 83 | Fritz 16.10 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-21 03:43 | 84 | Jonny 8.1 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-21 05:37 | 85 | Fizbo 2 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-21 07:30 | 86 | Jonny 8.1 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-21 09:23 | 87 | Fritz 16.10 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-21 11:16 | 88 | Laser 181205 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-21 13:10 | 89 | Laser 181205 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-21 15:03 | 90 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-21 16:56 | 91 | Chiron S14 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-21 18:49 | 92 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-21 20:43 | 93 | Fizbo 2 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-21 22:36 | 94 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-22 00:29 | 95 | Jonny 8.1 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-22 02:22 | 96 | Fritz 16.10 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-22 04:15 | 97 | Fritz 16.10 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-22 06:09 | 98 | Laser 181205 | Jonny 8.1 |
| 2018-12-22 08:02 | 99 | Ginkgo 2.18b | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-22 09:55 | 100 | Chiron S14 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-22 11:48 | 101 | Fizbo 2 | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-22 13:42 | 102 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-22 15:35 | 103 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-22 17:28 | 104 | Jonny 8.1 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-22 19:21 | 105 | Jonny 8.1 | Fizbo 2 |
| 2018-12-22 21:15 | 106 | Fritz 16.10 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 |
| 2018-12-22 23:08 | 107 | Laser 181205 | LCZero v19.1-11248 |
| 2018-12-23 01:01 | 108 | Ginkgo 2.18b | Chiron S14 |
| 2018-12-23 02:54 | 109 | Fizbo 2 | Ginkgo 2.18b |
| 2018-12-23 04:48 | 110 | Chiron S14 | Laser 181205 |
| 2018-12-23 06:41 | 111 | LCZero v19.1-11248 | Fritz 16.10 |
| 2018-12-23 08:34 | 112 | KomodoMCTS 2221.00 | Jonny 8.1 |