Dec 21 2018
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For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 LCZero v19-TP-11248/v19.1-RC2-11248/v19.1-11248 13.5 19.25 1.28 1.13 88 11 1 0 0 0 0
2 KomodoMCTS 2180.00/2210.00/2217.00/2221.00 11.5 17.07 1.38 2.12 12 71 13 4 1 0 0
3 Fizbo 2 10.5 15.00 1.30 3.50 1 11 49 24 10 4 1
4 Laser 181205 9.0 13.90 1.50 4.49 0 5 20 30 21 15 9
5 Ginkgo 2.18b 8.5 12.73 1.41 5.58 0 1 6 14 23 26 29
6 Jonny 8.1 8.0 12.70 1.35 5.62 0 1 5 13 23 30 26
7 Chiron S14 8.5 12.69 1.44 5.61 0 1 6 15 22 25 30
8 Fritz 16.10 4.5 8.65 1.35 7.94 0 0 0 0 0 1 4

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. LCZero v19.1-11248 85.687% 13.205% 98.892% 0.989% 0.111% 0.008%
2. KomodoMCTS 2221.00 13.199% 65.901% 79.100% 14.776% 4.484% 1.269% 0.323% 0.048% 0.047% 0.001%
3. Fizbo 2 0.653% 12.514% 13.167% 47.137% 22.774% 10.468% 4.800% 1.654% 1.643% 0.011%
4. Laser 181205 0.434% 5.728% 6.162% 17.829% 29.699% 21.669% 14.907% 9.734% 9.427% 0.307%
5. Jonny 8.1 0.012% 1.101% 1.113% 6.345% 13.500% 23.555% 28.804% 26.683% 25.025% 1.658%
6. Chiron S14 0.008% 1.015% 1.023% 7.213% 16.678% 22.202% 24.659% 28.225% 26.716% 1.509%
7. Ginkgo 2.18b 0.007% 0.536% 0.543% 5.710% 12.734% 20.664% 25.613% 34.736% 31.976% 2.760%
8. Fritz 16.10 0.001% 0.020% 0.165% 0.894% 98.920% 5.166% 93.754%

Speculate Laser 181205 – KomodoMCTS 2221.00 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. LCZero v19.1-11248 90.362% 8.335% 98.697% 1.111% 0.184% 0.007% 0.001%
2. KomodoMCTS 2221.00 7.739% 58.569% 66.308% 21.425% 8.746% 2.687% 0.720% 0.114% 0.114%
3. Laser 181205 1.081% 12.611% 13.692% 24.121% 29.827% 18.036% 9.920% 4.404% 4.350% 0.054%
4. Fizbo 2 0.777% 16.661% 17.438% 37.293% 25.585% 12.209% 5.609% 1.866% 1.856% 0.010%
5. Chiron S14 0.016% 1.488% 1.504% 6.278% 13.464% 22.613% 25.917% 30.224% 28.687% 1.537%
6. Jonny 8.1 0.015% 1.436% 1.451% 5.184% 11.584% 23.046% 30.506% 28.229% 26.630% 1.599%
7. Ginkgo 2.18b 0.010% 0.900% 0.910% 4.588% 10.596% 21.270% 26.479% 36.157% 33.394% 2.763%
8. Fritz 16.10 0.014% 0.132% 0.848% 99.006% 4.969% 94.037%

Speculate Laser 181205 – KomodoMCTS 2221.00 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. LCZero v19.1-11248 86.333% 12.490% 98.823% 1.055% 0.111% 0.010% 0.001%
2. KomodoMCTS 2221.00 12.681% 67.705% 80.386% 14.692% 3.751% 0.948% 0.192% 0.031% 0.031%
3. Fizbo 2 0.644% 12.760% 13.404% 47.259% 22.535% 10.421% 4.767% 1.614% 1.606% 0.008%
4. Laser 181205 0.308% 4.393% 4.701% 18.094% 31.263% 22.431% 14.999% 8.512% 8.331% 0.181%
5. Jonny 8.1 0.014% 1.119% 1.133% 6.127% 13.425% 23.332% 29.309% 26.674% 25.076% 1.598%
6. Chiron S14 0.011% 0.965% 0.976% 7.246% 16.364% 21.995% 24.532% 28.887% 27.322% 1.565%
7. Ginkgo 2.18b 0.009% 0.567% 0.576% 5.527% 12.533% 20.684% 25.324% 35.356% 32.580% 2.776%
8. Fritz 16.10 0.001% 0.001% 0.018% 0.179% 0.876% 98.926% 5.054% 93.872%

Speculate Laser 181205 – KomodoMCTS 2221.00 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. LCZero v19.1-11248 80.621% 18.400% 99.021% 0.886% 0.088% 0.005%
2. KomodoMCTS 2221.00 18.826% 70.687% 89.513% 8.887% 1.313% 0.247% 0.039% 0.001% 0.001%
3. Fizbo 2 0.481% 8.366% 8.847% 55.932% 20.561% 9.279% 4.089% 1.292% 1.278% 0.014%
4. Laser 181205 0.053% 0.991% 1.044% 12.152% 27.302% 24.156% 19.940% 15.406% 14.847% 0.559%
5. Jonny 8.1 0.012% 0.696% 0.708% 7.384% 16.004% 23.743% 27.192% 24.969% 23.323% 1.646%
6. Ginkgo 2.18b 0.004% 0.315% 0.319% 6.576% 15.006% 20.646% 24.708% 32.745% 30.090% 2.655%
7. Chiron S14 0.003% 0.545% 0.548% 8.183% 19.702% 21.719% 23.017% 26.831% 25.314% 1.517%
8. Fritz 16.10 0.024% 0.205% 1.015% 98.756% 5.147% 93.609%

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.13h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2018-12-21 06:45 76 Fritz 16.10 Jonny 8.1
2018-12-21 08:53 77 Fizbo 2 Jonny 8.1
2018-12-21 11:01 78 KomodoMCTS 2221.00 Fritz 16.10
2018-12-21 13:08 79 LCZero v19.1-11248 Laser 181205
2018-12-21 15:16 80 Chiron S14 Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-21 17:24 81 Ginkgo 2.18b Fizbo 2
2018-12-21 19:31 82 Laser 181205 Chiron S14
2018-12-21 21:39 83 Fritz 16.10 LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-21 23:47 84 Jonny 8.1 KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-22 01:55 85 Fizbo 2 KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-22 04:02 86 Jonny 8.1 LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-22 06:10 87 Fritz 16.10 Chiron S14
2018-12-22 08:18 88 Laser 181205 Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-22 10:26 89 Laser 181205 Fizbo 2
2018-12-22 12:33 90 Ginkgo 2.18b Fritz 16.10
2018-12-22 14:41 91 Chiron S14 Jonny 8.1
2018-12-22 16:49 92 LCZero v19.1-11248 KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-22 18:57 93 Fizbo 2 LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-22 21:04 94 KomodoMCTS 2221.00 Chiron S14
2018-12-22 23:12 95 Jonny 8.1 Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-23 01:20 96 Fritz 16.10 Laser 181205
2018-12-23 03:28 97 Fritz 16.10 Fizbo 2
2018-12-23 05:35 98 Laser 181205 Jonny 8.1
2018-12-23 07:43 99 Ginkgo 2.18b KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-23 09:51 100 Chiron S14 LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-23 11:59 101 Fizbo 2 Chiron S14
2018-12-23 14:06 102 LCZero v19.1-11248 Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-23 16:14 103 KomodoMCTS 2221.00 Laser 181205
2018-12-23 18:22 104 Jonny 8.1 Fritz 16.10
2018-12-23 20:30 105 Jonny 8.1 Fizbo 2
2018-12-23 22:37 106 Fritz 16.10 KomodoMCTS 2221.00
2018-12-24 00:45 107 Laser 181205 LCZero v19.1-11248
2018-12-24 02:53 108 Ginkgo 2.18b Chiron S14
2018-12-24 05:01 109 Fizbo 2 Ginkgo 2.18b
2018-12-24 07:08 110 Chiron S14 Laser 181205
2018-12-24 09:16 111 LCZero v19.1-11248 Fritz 16.10
2018-12-24 11:24 112 KomodoMCTS 2221.00 Jonny 8.1
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