For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 Stockfish 181224 1.0 35.46 11.13 3.06 44 13 7 6 7 8 9
2 Houdini 6.03 1.0 33.82 4.26 2.73 16 33 27 15 7 2 0
3 LCZero v19-TP-11248/v19.1-RC2-11248/v19.1-11248/v20rc2-32194 0.5 30.50 4.65 3.92 5 14 22 24 19 11 4
4 Fire 7.1 1.0 29.84 4.59 4.15 3 11 20 24 22 14 5
5 Komodo 2227.00 0.5 29.26 10.17 4.29 18 15 9 8 9 14 16
6 KomodoMCTS 2180.00/2210.00/2217.00/2221.00/2227.00 0.0 25.66 4.51 5.59 0 2 5 12 24 32 21
7 Andscacs 095 0.0 23.55 11.45 5.43 11 9 6 6 7 11 24
8 Ethereal 11.14 0.0 15.91 9.73 6.84 3 3 3 3 5 8 21

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 181224 44.188% 13.147% 57.335% 7.302% 6.176% 6.567% 8.332% 14.288% 8.881% 5.407%
2. Komodo 2227.00 18.476% 15.100% 33.576% 9.193% 8.184% 9.399% 13.542% 26.106% 16.325% 9.781%
3. Houdini 6.03 14.970% 31.867% 46.837% 27.226% 15.812% 7.167% 2.444% 0.514% 0.480% 0.034%
4. Andscacs 095 11.123% 9.527% 20.650% 6.475% 5.921% 7.248% 11.236% 48.470% 23.556% 24.914%
5. LCZero v20rc2-32194 4.742% 14.152% 18.894% 22.061% 23.841% 19.137% 11.314% 4.753% 4.142% 0.611%
6. Fire 7.1 3.543% 11.205% 14.748% 19.427% 24.457% 22.020% 13.557% 5.791% 5.096% 0.695%
7. Ethereal 11.14 2.629% 3.249% 5.878% 2.972% 3.255% 4.417% 8.107% 75.371% 21.116% 54.255%
8. KomodoMCTS 2227.00 0.329% 1.753% 2.082% 5.344% 12.354% 24.045% 31.468% 24.707% 20.404% 4.303%

Speculate KomodoMCTS 2227.00 – Ethereal 11.14 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 181224 43.606% 13.426% 57.032% 7.373% 6.331% 6.626% 8.474% 14.164% 9.311% 4.853%
2. Komodo 2227.00 18.901% 15.068% 33.969% 9.176% 8.297% 9.390% 14.008% 25.160% 16.614% 8.546%
3. Houdini 6.03 15.556% 32.218% 47.774% 27.330% 15.241% 6.891% 2.255% 0.509% 0.473% 0.036%
4. Andscacs 095 11.430% 9.432% 20.862% 6.302% 5.992% 7.088% 11.532% 48.224% 25.442% 22.782%
5. LCZero v20rc2-32194 4.828% 14.233% 19.061% 22.289% 23.965% 19.213% 11.076% 4.396% 3.910% 0.486%
6. Fire 7.1 3.415% 11.090% 14.505% 19.439% 24.148% 22.114% 14.051% 5.743% 5.093% 0.650%
7. Ethereal 11.14 1.890% 2.454% 4.344% 2.239% 2.510% 3.551% 7.150% 80.206% 20.529% 59.677%
8. KomodoMCTS 2227.00 0.374% 2.079% 2.453% 5.852% 13.516% 25.127% 31.454% 21.598% 18.628% 2.970%

Speculate KomodoMCTS 2227.00 – Ethereal 11.14 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 181224 43.080% 13.179% 56.259% 7.140% 6.055% 6.278% 7.251% 17.017% 8.701% 8.316%
2. Komodo 2227.00 18.093% 14.594% 32.687% 9.022% 8.004% 8.757% 11.387% 30.143% 15.414% 14.729%
3. Houdini 6.03 14.352% 30.301% 44.653% 27.480% 16.398% 7.744% 2.953% 0.772% 0.684% 0.088%
4. Andscacs 095 11.091% 9.344% 20.435% 6.334% 5.785% 6.616% 9.570% 51.260% 17.152% 34.108%
5. Ethereal 11.14 5.185% 6.785% 11.970% 6.043% 6.363% 8.061% 12.550% 55.013% 22.720% 32.293%
6. LCZero v20rc2-32194 4.294% 13.142% 17.436% 20.443% 23.577% 19.810% 12.362% 6.372% 5.204% 1.168%
7. Fire 7.1 3.680% 11.404% 15.084% 19.418% 23.531% 21.408% 13.601% 6.958% 5.741% 1.217%
8. KomodoMCTS 2227.00 0.225% 1.251% 1.476% 4.120% 10.287% 21.326% 30.326% 32.465% 24.384% 8.081%

Speculate KomodoMCTS 2227.00 – Ethereal 11.14 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 181224 39.687% 13.919% 53.606% 7.737% 6.206% 6.417% 7.329% 18.705% 8.803% 9.902%
2. Komodo 2227.00 16.327% 13.824% 30.151% 9.391% 8.078% 8.650% 10.709% 33.021% 15.390% 17.631%
3. Ethereal 11.14 15.446% 13.993% 29.439% 9.319% 8.253% 8.847% 11.409% 32.733% 15.666% 17.067%
4. Houdini 6.03 11.928% 27.433% 39.361% 27.909% 18.359% 9.527% 3.751% 1.093% 0.979% 0.114%
5. Andscacs 095 10.134% 9.000% 19.134% 6.569% 5.786% 6.371% 8.672% 53.468% 15.070% 38.398%
6. LCZero v20rc2-32194 3.203% 10.740% 13.943% 18.220% 23.076% 21.785% 14.627% 8.349% 6.666% 1.683%
7. Fire 7.1 3.151% 10.357% 13.508% 18.292% 23.251% 21.930% 14.837% 8.182% 6.710% 1.472%
8. KomodoMCTS 2227.00 0.124% 0.734% 0.858% 2.563% 6.991% 16.473% 28.666% 44.449% 30.716% 13.733%

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.98h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2018-12-26 17:57 6 Andscacs 095 Fire 7.1
2018-12-26 20:56 7 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Houdini 6.03
2018-12-26 23:55 8 Stockfish 181224 Komodo 2227.00
2018-12-27 02:54 9 Komodo 2227.00 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2018-12-27 05:53 10 Houdini 6.03 Stockfish 181224
2018-12-27 08:52 11 Fire 7.1 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2018-12-27 11:51 12 Ethereal 11.14 Andscacs 095
2018-12-27 14:50 13 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Andscacs 095
2018-12-27 17:49 14 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Ethereal 11.14
2018-12-27 20:48 15 Stockfish 181224 Fire 7.1
2018-12-27 23:46 16 Komodo 2227.00 Houdini 6.03
2018-12-28 02:45 17 Houdini 6.03 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2018-12-28 05:44 18 Fire 7.1 Komodo 2227.00
2018-12-28 08:43 19 Ethereal 11.14 Stockfish 181224
2018-12-28 11:42 20 Andscacs 095 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2018-12-28 14:41 21 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2018-12-28 17:40 22 Stockfish 181224 Andscacs 095
2018-12-28 20:39 23 Komodo 2227.00 Ethereal 11.14
2018-12-28 23:38 24 Houdini 6.03 Fire 7.1
2018-12-29 02:37 25 Fire 7.1 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2018-12-29 05:35 26 Ethereal 11.14 Houdini 6.03
2018-12-29 08:34 27 Andscacs 095 Komodo 2227.00
2018-12-29 11:33 28 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Stockfish 181224
2018-12-29 14:32 29 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Stockfish 181224
2018-12-29 17:31 30 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Komodo 2227.00
2018-12-29 20:30 31 Andscacs 095 Houdini 6.03
2018-12-29 23:29 32 Ethereal 11.14 Fire 7.1
2018-12-30 02:28 33 Ethereal 11.14 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2018-12-30 05:27 34 Fire 7.1 Andscacs 095
2018-12-30 08:26 35 Houdini 6.03 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2018-12-30 11:24 36 Komodo 2227.00 Stockfish 181224
2018-12-30 14:23 37 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Komodo 2227.00
2018-12-30 17:22 38 Stockfish 181224 Houdini 6.03
2018-12-30 20:21 39 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Fire 7.1
2018-12-30 23:20 40 Andscacs 095 Ethereal 11.14
2018-12-31 02:19 41 Andscacs 095 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2018-12-31 05:18 42 Ethereal 11.14 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2018-12-31 08:17 43 Fire 7.1 Stockfish 181224
2018-12-31 11:16 44 Houdini 6.03 Komodo 2227.00
2018-12-31 14:14 45 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Houdini 6.03
2018-12-31 17:13 46 Komodo 2227.00 Fire 7.1
2018-12-31 20:12 47 Stockfish 181224 Ethereal 11.14
2018-12-31 23:11 48 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Andscacs 095
2019-01-01 02:10 49 LCZero v20rc2-32194 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-01 05:09 50 Andscacs 095 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-01 08:08 51 Ethereal 11.14 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-01 11:07 52 Fire 7.1 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-01 14:06 53 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Fire 7.1
2019-01-01 17:05 54 Houdini 6.03 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-01 20:03 55 Komodo 2227.00 Andscacs 095
2019-01-01 23:02 56 Stockfish 181224 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-02 02:01 57 Stockfish 181224 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-02 05:00 58 Komodo 2227.00 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-02 07:59 59 Houdini 6.03 Andscacs 095
2019-01-02 10:58 60 Fire 7.1 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-02 13:57 61 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-02 16:56 62 Andscacs 095 Fire 7.1
2019-01-02 19:55 63 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-02 22:54 64 Stockfish 181224 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-03 01:52 65 Komodo 2227.00 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-03 04:51 66 Houdini 6.03 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-03 07:50 67 Fire 7.1 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-03 10:49 68 Ethereal 11.14 Andscacs 095
2019-01-03 13:48 69 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Andscacs 095
2019-01-03 16:47 70 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-03 19:46 71 Stockfish 181224 Fire 7.1
2019-01-03 22:45 72 Komodo 2227.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-04 01:44 73 Houdini 6.03 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-04 04:43 74 Fire 7.1 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-04 07:41 75 Ethereal 11.14 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-04 10:40 76 Andscacs 095 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-04 13:39 77 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-04 16:38 78 Stockfish 181224 Andscacs 095
2019-01-04 19:37 79 Komodo 2227.00 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-04 22:36 80 Houdini 6.03 Fire 7.1
2019-01-05 01:35 81 Fire 7.1 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-05 04:34 82 Ethereal 11.14 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-05 07:33 83 Andscacs 095 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-05 10:32 84 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-05 13:30 85 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-05 16:29 86 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-05 19:28 87 Andscacs 095 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-05 22:27 88 Ethereal 11.14 Fire 7.1
2019-01-06 01:26 89 Ethereal 11.14 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-06 04:25 90 Fire 7.1 Andscacs 095
2019-01-06 07:24 91 Houdini 6.03 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-06 10:23 92 Komodo 2227.00 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-06 13:22 93 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-06 16:20 94 Stockfish 181224 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-06 19:19 95 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Fire 7.1
2019-01-06 22:18 96 Andscacs 095 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-07 01:17 97 Andscacs 095 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-07 04:16 98 Ethereal 11.14 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-07 07:15 99 Fire 7.1 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-07 10:14 100 Houdini 6.03 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-07 13:13 101 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-07 16:12 102 Komodo 2227.00 Fire 7.1
2019-01-07 19:11 103 Stockfish 181224 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-07 22:09 104 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Andscacs 095
2019-01-08 01:08 105 LCZero v20rc2-32194 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-08 04:07 106 Andscacs 095 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-08 07:06 107 Ethereal 11.14 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-08 10:05 108 Fire 7.1 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-08 13:04 109 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Fire 7.1
2019-01-08 16:03 110 Houdini 6.03 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-08 19:02 111 Komodo 2227.00 Andscacs 095
2019-01-08 22:01 112 Stockfish 181224 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-09 01:00 113 Stockfish 181224 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-09 03:58 114 Komodo 2227.00 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-09 06:57 115 Houdini 6.03 Andscacs 095
2019-01-09 09:56 116 Fire 7.1 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-09 12:55 117 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-09 15:54 118 Andscacs 095 Fire 7.1
2019-01-09 18:53 119 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-09 21:52 120 Stockfish 181224 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-10 00:51 121 Komodo 2227.00 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-10 03:50 122 Houdini 6.03 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-10 06:49 123 Fire 7.1 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-10 09:47 124 Ethereal 11.14 Andscacs 095
2019-01-10 12:46 125 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Andscacs 095
2019-01-10 15:45 126 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-10 18:44 127 Stockfish 181224 Fire 7.1
2019-01-10 21:43 128 Komodo 2227.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-11 00:42 129 Houdini 6.03 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-11 03:41 130 Fire 7.1 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-11 06:40 131 Ethereal 11.14 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-11 09:39 132 Andscacs 095 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-11 12:38 133 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-11 15:36 134 Stockfish 181224 Andscacs 095
2019-01-11 18:35 135 Komodo 2227.00 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-11 21:34 136 Houdini 6.03 Fire 7.1
2019-01-12 00:33 137 Fire 7.1 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-12 03:32 138 Ethereal 11.14 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-12 06:31 139 Andscacs 095 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-12 09:30 140 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-12 12:29 141 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-12 15:28 142 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-12 18:27 143 Andscacs 095 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-12 21:25 144 Ethereal 11.14 Fire 7.1
2019-01-13 00:24 145 Ethereal 11.14 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-13 03:23 146 Fire 7.1 Andscacs 095
2019-01-13 06:22 147 Houdini 6.03 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-13 09:21 148 Komodo 2227.00 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-13 12:20 149 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-13 15:19 150 Stockfish 181224 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-13 18:18 151 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Fire 7.1
2019-01-13 21:17 152 Andscacs 095 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-14 00:15 153 Andscacs 095 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-14 03:14 154 Ethereal 11.14 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-14 06:13 155 Fire 7.1 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-14 09:12 156 Houdini 6.03 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-14 12:11 157 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-14 15:10 158 Komodo 2227.00 Fire 7.1
2019-01-14 18:09 159 Stockfish 181224 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-14 21:08 160 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Andscacs 095
2019-01-15 00:07 161 LCZero v20rc2-32194 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-15 03:06 162 Andscacs 095 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-15 06:04 163 Ethereal 11.14 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-15 09:03 164 Fire 7.1 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-15 12:02 165 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Fire 7.1
2019-01-15 15:01 166 Houdini 6.03 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-15 18:00 167 Komodo 2227.00 Andscacs 095
2019-01-15 20:59 168 Stockfish 181224 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-15 23:58 169 Stockfish 181224 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-16 02:57 170 Komodo 2227.00 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-16 05:56 171 Houdini 6.03 Andscacs 095
2019-01-16 08:55 172 Fire 7.1 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-16 11:53 173 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-16 14:52 174 Andscacs 095 Fire 7.1
2019-01-16 17:51 175 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-16 20:50 176 Stockfish 181224 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-16 23:49 177 Komodo 2227.00 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-17 02:48 178 Houdini 6.03 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-17 05:47 179 Fire 7.1 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-17 08:46 180 Ethereal 11.14 Andscacs 095
2019-01-17 11:45 181 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Andscacs 095
2019-01-17 14:44 182 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-17 17:42 183 Stockfish 181224 Fire 7.1
2019-01-17 20:41 184 Komodo 2227.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-17 23:40 185 Houdini 6.03 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-18 02:39 186 Fire 7.1 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-18 05:38 187 Ethereal 11.14 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-18 08:37 188 Andscacs 095 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-18 11:36 189 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-18 14:35 190 Stockfish 181224 Andscacs 095
2019-01-18 17:34 191 Komodo 2227.00 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-18 20:33 192 Houdini 6.03 Fire 7.1
2019-01-18 23:31 193 Fire 7.1 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-19 02:30 194 Ethereal 11.14 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-19 05:29 195 Andscacs 095 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-19 08:28 196 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-19 11:27 197 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-19 14:26 198 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-19 17:25 199 Andscacs 095 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-19 20:24 200 Ethereal 11.14 Fire 7.1
2019-01-19 23:23 201 Ethereal 11.14 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-20 02:22 202 Fire 7.1 Andscacs 095
2019-01-20 05:20 203 Houdini 6.03 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-20 08:19 204 Komodo 2227.00 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-20 11:18 205 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-20 14:17 206 Stockfish 181224 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-20 17:16 207 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Fire 7.1
2019-01-20 20:15 208 Andscacs 095 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-20 23:14 209 Andscacs 095 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-21 02:13 210 Ethereal 11.14 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-21 05:12 211 Fire 7.1 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-21 08:10 212 Houdini 6.03 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-21 11:09 213 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-21 14:08 214 Komodo 2227.00 Fire 7.1
2019-01-21 17:07 215 Stockfish 181224 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-21 20:06 216 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Andscacs 095
2019-01-21 23:05 217 LCZero v20rc2-32194 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-22 02:04 218 Andscacs 095 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-22 05:03 219 Ethereal 11.14 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-22 08:02 220 Fire 7.1 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-22 11:01 221 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Fire 7.1
2019-01-22 13:59 222 Houdini 6.03 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-22 16:58 223 Komodo 2227.00 Andscacs 095
2019-01-22 19:57 224 Stockfish 181224 LCZero v20rc2-32194