Jan 08 2019
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For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 Stockfish 181224 18.5 27.88 1.81 1.21 83 13 3 1 0 0 0
2 LCZero v19-TP-11248/v19.1-RC2-11248/v19.1-11248/v20rc2-32194 17.0 25.03 1.70 2.32 13 53 24 9 1 0 0
3 Komodo 2227.00 14.5 23.29 1.93 3.25 3 20 36 35 6 1 0
4 Houdini 6.03 14.0 22.96 1.72 3.43 1 14 35 43 6 1 0
5 KomodoMCTS 2180.00/2210.00/2217.00/2221.00/2227.00 12.5 19.33 1.70 5.30 0 0 2 9 57 22 8
6 Fire 7.1 10.0 17.40 1.76 6.36 0 0 0 2 17 38 30
7 Ethereal 11.14 10.0 16.77 1.92 6.71 0 0 0 1 11 27 36
8 Andscacs 095 9.5 15.35 1.82 7.43 0 0 0 0 3 11 25

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 181224 81.359% 14.347% 95.706% 3.544% 0.725% 0.024% 0.001%
2. LCZero v20rc2-32194 13.764% 49.309% 63.073% 25.316% 10.845% 0.714% 0.049% 0.003% 0.003%
3. Komodo 2227.00 3.379% 20.810% 24.189% 34.578% 33.837% 5.939% 1.152% 0.305% 0.268% 0.037%
4. Houdini 6.03 1.491% 15.287% 16.778% 34.249% 41.341% 6.324% 1.108% 0.200% 0.190% 0.010%
5. KomodoMCTS 2227.00 0.007% 0.196% 0.203% 1.662% 8.795% 51.399% 24.587% 13.354% 10.545% 2.809%
6. Ethereal 11.14 0.038% 0.038% 0.335% 1.833% 11.814% 24.497% 61.483% 34.220% 27.263%
7. Fire 7.1 0.012% 0.012% 0.291% 2.293% 19.635% 35.530% 42.239% 28.151% 14.088%
8. Andscacs 095 0.001% 0.001% 0.025% 0.331% 4.151% 13.076% 82.416% 26.623% 55.793%

Speculate Ethereal 11.14 – Komodo 2227.00 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 181224 82.701% 14.100% 96.801% 2.674% 0.500% 0.025%
2. LCZero v20rc2-32194 14.193% 54.107% 68.300% 22.552% 8.396% 0.692% 0.055% 0.005% 0.005%
3. Komodo 2227.00 1.566% 14.151% 15.717% 31.725% 40.309% 9.206% 2.348% 0.695% 0.596% 0.099%
4. Houdini 6.03 1.533% 17.296% 18.829% 39.547% 33.625% 6.383% 1.319% 0.297% 0.276% 0.021%
5. KomodoMCTS 2227.00 0.006% 0.235% 0.241% 2.256% 10.260% 45.143% 25.602% 16.498% 13.079% 3.419%
6. Fire 7.1 0.001% 0.034% 0.035% 0.378% 2.643% 17.602% 30.941% 48.401% 31.860% 16.541%
7. Ethereal 11.14 0.075% 0.075% 0.835% 3.827% 17.275% 28.941% 49.047% 30.889% 18.158%
8. Andscacs 095 0.002% 0.002% 0.033% 0.440% 3.674% 10.794% 85.057% 23.295% 61.762%

Speculate Ethereal 11.14 – Komodo 2227.00 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 181224 81.674% 14.356% 96.030% 3.190% 0.747% 0.033%
2. LCZero v20rc2-32194 13.978% 50.504% 64.482% 24.288% 10.480% 0.694% 0.055% 0.001% 0.001%
3. Komodo 2227.00 2.880% 19.282% 22.162% 34.954% 35.969% 5.730% 0.984% 0.201% 0.186% 0.015%
4. Houdini 6.03 1.463% 15.622% 17.085% 35.262% 39.955% 6.367% 1.115% 0.216% 0.204% 0.012%
5. KomodoMCTS 2227.00 0.004% 0.194% 0.198% 1.662% 8.579% 51.478% 24.352% 13.731% 10.764% 2.967%
6. Ethereal 11.14 0.001% 0.019% 0.020% 0.300% 1.695% 12.281% 25.855% 59.849% 34.266% 25.583%
7. Fire 7.1 0.021% 0.021% 0.321% 2.240% 19.559% 34.900% 42.959% 28.529% 14.430%
8. Andscacs 095 0.002% 0.002% 0.023% 0.335% 3.858% 12.739% 83.043% 26.050% 56.993%

Speculate Ethereal 11.14 – Komodo 2227.00 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 181224 80.265% 14.705% 94.970% 4.110% 0.900% 0.020%
2. LCZero v20rc2-32194 13.362% 45.249% 58.611% 27.776% 12.855% 0.717% 0.039% 0.002% 0.002%
3. Komodo 2227.00 4.957% 26.209% 31.166% 36.327% 28.800% 3.291% 0.352% 0.064% 0.060% 0.004%
4. Houdini 6.03 1.411% 13.674% 15.085% 30.313% 46.990% 6.526% 0.915% 0.171% 0.157% 0.014%
5. KomodoMCTS 2227.00 0.004% 0.149% 0.153% 1.179% 7.448% 56.285% 23.773% 11.162% 8.981% 2.181%
6. Fire 7.1 0.001% 0.012% 0.013% 0.202% 2.063% 21.003% 39.100% 37.619% 25.450% 12.169%
7. Ethereal 11.14 0.001% 0.001% 0.071% 0.717% 7.904% 21.191% 70.116% 35.708% 34.408%
8. Andscacs 095 0.001% 0.001% 0.022% 0.227% 4.254% 14.630% 80.866% 29.642% 51.224%

Expected start time based on estimate of 3.08h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2019-01-08 20:48 108 Fire 7.1 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-08 23:53 109 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Fire 7.1
2019-01-09 02:58 110 Houdini 6.03 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-09 06:03 111 Komodo 2227.00 Andscacs 095
2019-01-09 09:08 112 Stockfish 181224 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-09 12:13 113 Stockfish 181224 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-09 15:17 114 Komodo 2227.00 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-09 18:22 115 Houdini 6.03 Andscacs 095
2019-01-09 21:27 116 Fire 7.1 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-10 00:32 117 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-10 03:37 118 Andscacs 095 Fire 7.1
2019-01-10 06:42 119 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-10 09:47 120 Stockfish 181224 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-10 12:52 121 Komodo 2227.00 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-10 15:57 122 Houdini 6.03 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-10 19:02 123 Fire 7.1 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-10 22:06 124 Ethereal 11.14 Andscacs 095
2019-01-11 01:11 125 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Andscacs 095
2019-01-11 04:16 126 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-11 07:21 127 Stockfish 181224 Fire 7.1
2019-01-11 10:26 128 Komodo 2227.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-11 13:31 129 Houdini 6.03 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-11 16:36 130 Fire 7.1 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-11 19:41 131 Ethereal 11.14 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-11 22:46 132 Andscacs 095 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-12 01:51 133 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-12 04:56 134 Stockfish 181224 Andscacs 095
2019-01-12 08:00 135 Komodo 2227.00 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-12 11:05 136 Houdini 6.03 Fire 7.1
2019-01-12 14:10 137 Fire 7.1 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-12 17:15 138 Ethereal 11.14 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-12 20:20 139 Andscacs 095 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-12 23:25 140 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-13 02:30 141 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-13 05:35 142 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-13 08:40 143 Andscacs 095 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-13 11:45 144 Ethereal 11.14 Fire 7.1
2019-01-13 14:50 145 Ethereal 11.14 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-13 17:54 146 Fire 7.1 Andscacs 095
2019-01-13 20:59 147 Houdini 6.03 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-14 00:04 148 Komodo 2227.00 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-14 03:09 149 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-14 06:14 150 Stockfish 181224 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-14 09:19 151 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Fire 7.1
2019-01-14 12:24 152 Andscacs 095 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-14 15:29 153 Andscacs 095 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-14 18:34 154 Ethereal 11.14 LCZero v20rc2-32194
2019-01-14 21:39 155 Fire 7.1 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-15 00:43 156 Houdini 6.03 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-15 03:48 157 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-15 06:53 158 Komodo 2227.00 Fire 7.1
2019-01-15 09:58 159 Stockfish 181224 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-15 13:03 160 LCZero v20rc2-32194 Andscacs 095
2019-01-15 16:08 161 LCZero v20rc2-32194 KomodoMCTS 2227.00
2019-01-15 19:13 162 Andscacs 095 Stockfish 181224
2019-01-15 22:18 163 Ethereal 11.14 Komodo 2227.00
2019-01-16 01:23 164 Fire 7.1 Houdini 6.03
2019-01-16 04:28 165 KomodoMCTS 2227.00 Fire 7.1
2019-01-16 07:33 166 Houdini 6.03 Ethereal 11.14
2019-01-16 10:37 167 Komodo 2227.00 Andscacs 095
2019-01-16 13:42 168 Stockfish 181224 LCZero v20rc2-32194
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