Mar 06 2019
Off

For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 RubiChess 1.3.1 2.5 12.08 2.36 2.94 28 23 17 13 9 5 3 2 1
2 Nemorino 5.08 1.5 11.78 2.60 3.23 25 21 16 13 9 7 4 3 1
3 Rodent III 0.276 2.0 11.53 2.90 3.50 25 18 15 12 10 8 6 4 2
4 The Baron 3.44.1 0.5 9.98 2.74 4.70 8 13 14 15 13 12 10 8 5
5 Cheese 2.0 0.5 9.41 2.72 5.19 6 10 12 14 14 13 12 9 7
6 Tucano 7.07 1.5 8.78 2.44 5.74 3 6 9 12 15 16 15 12 8
7 Winter 0.5 0.5 7.72 2.80 6.61 2 4 6 8 11 13 15 16 15
8 Minic 0.42 1.0 7.52 2.82 6.77 2 4 6 7 10 12 15 17 16
9 Topple 0.4.0 1.0 6.43 2.66 7.64 1 2 3 4 6 9 13 18 25
10 Igel 1.2 0.0 4.77 2.66 8.69 0 1 1 2 3 5 8 12 20

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2. Columns 1.-2. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. RubiChess 1.3.1 26.386% 22.456% 48.842% 17.474% 12.867% 8.810% 5.752% 3.418% 1.836% 1.001% 0.794% 0.207%
2. Rodent III 0.276 25.121% 17.399% 42.520% 14.285% 11.733% 9.776% 7.902% 6.004% 4.263% 3.517% 2.627% 0.890%
3. Nemorino 5.08 24.735% 20.372% 45.107% 16.258% 12.454% 9.387% 6.750% 4.866% 2.969% 2.209% 1.637% 0.572%
4. The Baron 3.44.1 8.740% 12.700% 21.440% 14.260% 14.515% 13.160% 11.499% 9.705% 7.543% 7.878% 5.186% 2.692%
5. Cheese 2.0 5.865% 9.813% 15.678% 12.119% 13.523% 13.910% 13.051% 11.632% 9.357% 10.730% 6.936% 3.794%
6. Tucano 7.07 2.934% 6.101% 9.035% 9.121% 11.928% 14.556% 16.000% 15.270% 12.301% 11.789% 8.046% 3.743%
7. Minic 0.42 2.582% 4.122% 6.704% 5.615% 7.538% 9.753% 11.974% 14.256% 16.648% 27.512% 15.663% 11.849%
8. Winter 0.5 2.333% 4.214% 6.547% 6.317% 8.371% 10.509% 12.441% 14.414% 15.301% 26.100% 14.838% 11.262%
9. Topple 0.4.0 1.031% 2.053% 3.084% 3.216% 4.755% 6.642% 9.440% 12.605% 17.426% 42.832% 24.136% 18.696%
10. Igel 1.2 0.273% 0.770% 1.043% 1.335% 2.316% 3.497% 5.191% 7.830% 12.356% 66.432% 20.137% 46.295%

Speculate Topple 0.4.0 – Winter 0.5 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Rodent III 0.276 32.666% 18.913% 51.579% 13.686% 10.665% 7.976% 5.999% 4.494% 3.101% 2.500% 1.797% 0.703%
2. Nemorino 5.08 24.956% 20.909% 45.865% 16.018% 12.210% 9.045% 6.584% 4.707% 3.058% 2.513% 1.781% 0.732%
3. RubiChess 1.3.1 18.540% 19.332% 37.872% 17.134% 14.365% 11.399% 8.094% 5.587% 3.357% 2.192% 1.648% 0.544%
4. The Baron 3.44.1 7.188% 10.983% 18.171% 12.998% 13.704% 13.047% 11.923% 10.185% 8.789% 11.183% 7.005% 4.178%
5. Cheese 2.0 6.816% 11.632% 18.448% 13.660% 13.806% 13.432% 11.808% 10.335% 8.495% 10.016% 6.270% 3.746%
6. Minic 0.42 4.009% 5.956% 9.965% 7.595% 8.967% 10.464% 12.043% 13.315% 13.594% 24.057% 13.114% 10.943%
7. Topple 0.4.0 2.845% 5.451% 8.296% 7.575% 10.030% 12.360% 14.228% 15.459% 15.276% 16.776% 11.656% 5.120%
8. Tucano 7.07 1.950% 4.304% 6.254% 6.827% 9.551% 12.165% 14.480% 15.615% 15.314% 19.794% 12.710% 7.084%
9. Igel 1.2 0.786% 1.810% 2.596% 2.882% 4.005% 5.575% 7.559% 9.840% 13.316% 54.227% 19.764% 34.463%
10. Winter 0.5 0.244% 0.710% 0.954% 1.625% 2.697% 4.537% 7.282% 10.463% 15.700% 56.742% 24.255% 32.487%

Speculate Topple 0.4.0 – Winter 0.5 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Rodent III 0.276 26.577% 18.210% 44.787% 14.546% 11.773% 9.336% 7.017% 5.351% 3.779% 3.411% 2.441% 0.970%
2. RubiChess 1.3.1 25.600% 22.296% 47.896% 17.663% 13.041% 9.155% 5.763% 3.407% 1.899% 1.176% 0.883% 0.293%
3. Nemorino 5.08 25.238% 20.909% 46.147% 16.483% 12.490% 9.095% 6.449% 4.358% 2.757% 2.221% 1.607% 0.614%
4. The Baron 3.44.1 8.824% 12.833% 21.657% 14.648% 14.756% 12.949% 11.117% 9.208% 7.140% 8.525% 5.378% 3.147%
5. Cheese 2.0 6.138% 10.291% 16.429% 12.780% 13.733% 14.074% 12.403% 10.767% 8.851% 10.963% 6.856% 4.107%
6. Minic 0.42 3.129% 4.873% 8.002% 6.303% 8.271% 10.204% 12.160% 13.674% 14.520% 26.866% 14.705% 12.161%
7. Tucano 7.07 2.732% 5.909% 8.641% 8.873% 11.866% 14.310% 15.641% 14.292% 12.169% 14.208% 9.316% 4.892%
8. Winter 0.5 0.713% 2.095% 2.808% 3.928% 6.399% 9.443% 12.638% 16.236% 18.019% 30.529% 17.715% 12.814%
9. Topple 0.4.0 0.643% 1.581% 2.224% 3.035% 5.050% 7.515% 11.081% 14.651% 19.424% 37.020% 23.050% 13.970%
10. Igel 1.2 0.406% 1.003% 1.409% 1.741% 2.621% 3.919% 5.731% 8.056% 11.442% 65.081% 18.049% 47.032%

Speculate Topple 0.4.0 – Winter 0.5 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. RubiChess 1.3.1 32.778% 23.598% 56.376% 16.689% 11.359% 7.119% 4.461% 2.358% 1.146% 0.492% 0.395% 0.097%
2. Nemorino 5.08 24.119% 20.181% 44.300% 16.631% 13.122% 9.591% 7.099% 4.799% 2.756% 1.702% 1.320% 0.382%
3. Rodent III 0.276 19.972% 15.955% 35.927% 14.015% 12.770% 10.853% 9.461% 7.646% 5.508% 3.820% 2.895% 0.925%
4. The Baron 3.44.1 9.497% 14.266% 23.763% 15.426% 14.584% 13.254% 11.284% 9.543% 6.697% 5.449% 3.805% 1.644%
5. Cheese 2.0 4.909% 8.541% 13.450% 11.241% 13.139% 14.489% 14.035% 13.349% 10.459% 9.838% 6.594% 3.244%
6. Tucano 7.07 3.481% 7.304% 10.785% 10.601% 13.525% 15.870% 15.921% 14.722% 10.381% 8.195% 5.947% 2.248%
7. Winter 0.5 2.677% 5.746% 8.423% 8.597% 11.581% 14.406% 16.357% 16.198% 13.821% 10.617% 7.560% 3.057%
8. Minic 0.42 2.260% 3.512% 5.772% 4.995% 6.641% 8.975% 11.872% 14.981% 19.658% 27.106% 16.224% 10.882%
9. Igel 1.2 0.159% 0.457% 0.616% 0.835% 1.511% 2.383% 3.901% 6.502% 11.113% 73.139% 20.702% 52.437%
10. Topple 0.4.0 0.148% 0.440% 0.588% 0.970% 1.768% 3.060% 5.609% 9.902% 18.461% 59.642% 34.558% 25.084%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.17h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2019-03-06 09:00 13 Rodent III 0.276 Minic 0.42
2019-03-06 10:10 14 Nemorino 5.08 Igel 1.2
2019-03-06 11:20 15 The Baron 3.44.1 Cheese 2.0
2019-03-06 12:30 16 RubiChess 1.3.1 Cheese 2.0
2019-03-06 13:40 17 Igel 1.2 The Baron 3.44.1
2019-03-06 14:49 18 Minic 0.42 Nemorino 5.08
2019-03-06 15:59 19 Winter 0.5 Rodent III 0.276
2019-03-06 17:09 20 Tucano 7.07 Topple 0.4.0
2019-03-06 18:19 21 Topple 0.4.0 RubiChess 1.3.1
2019-03-06 19:29 22 Rodent III 0.276 Tucano 7.07
2019-03-06 20:39 23 Nemorino 5.08 Winter 0.5
2019-03-06 21:49 24 The Baron 3.44.1 Minic 0.42
2019-03-06 22:59 25 Cheese 2.0 Igel 1.2
2019-03-07 00:09 26 RubiChess 1.3.1 Igel 1.2
2019-03-07 01:19 27 Minic 0.42 Cheese 2.0
2019-03-07 02:29 28 Winter 0.5 The Baron 3.44.1
2019-03-07 03:39 29 Tucano 7.07 Nemorino 5.08
2019-03-07 04:49 30 Topple 0.4.0 Rodent III 0.276
2019-03-07 05:59 31 Rodent III 0.276 RubiChess 1.3.1
2019-03-07 07:09 32 Nemorino 5.08 Topple 0.4.0
2019-03-07 08:19 33 The Baron 3.44.1 Tucano 7.07
2019-03-07 09:29 34 Cheese 2.0 Winter 0.5
2019-03-07 10:39 35 Igel 1.2 Minic 0.42
2019-03-07 11:49 36 RubiChess 1.3.1 Minic 0.42
2019-03-07 12:59 37 Winter 0.5 Igel 1.2
2019-03-07 14:09 38 Tucano 7.07 Cheese 2.0
2019-03-07 15:19 39 Topple 0.4.0 The Baron 3.44.1
2019-03-07 16:29 40 Rodent III 0.276 Nemorino 5.08
2019-03-07 17:39 41 Nemorino 5.08 RubiChess 1.3.1
2019-03-07 18:48 42 The Baron 3.44.1 Rodent III 0.276
2019-03-07 19:58 43 Cheese 2.0 Topple 0.4.0
2019-03-07 21:08 44 Igel 1.2 Tucano 7.07
2019-03-07 22:18 45 Minic 0.42 Winter 0.5
2019-03-07 23:28 46 RubiChess 1.3.1 Winter 0.5
2019-03-08 00:38 47 Minic 0.42 Tucano 7.07
2019-03-08 01:48 48 Igel 1.2 Topple 0.4.0
2019-03-08 02:58 49 Cheese 2.0 Rodent III 0.276
2019-03-08 04:08 50 The Baron 3.44.1 Nemorino 5.08
2019-03-08 05:18 51 The Baron 3.44.1 RubiChess 1.3.1
2019-03-08 06:28 52 Nemorino 5.08 Cheese 2.0
2019-03-08 07:38 53 Rodent III 0.276 Igel 1.2
2019-03-08 08:48 54 Topple 0.4.0 Minic 0.42
2019-03-08 09:58 55 Tucano 7.07 Winter 0.5
2019-03-08 11:08 56 RubiChess 1.3.1 Tucano 7.07
2019-03-08 12:18 57 Winter 0.5 Topple 0.4.0
2019-03-08 13:28 58 Minic 0.42 Rodent III 0.276
2019-03-08 14:38 59 Igel 1.2 Nemorino 5.08
2019-03-08 15:48 60 Cheese 2.0 The Baron 3.44.1
2019-03-08 16:58 61 Cheese 2.0 RubiChess 1.3.1
2019-03-08 18:08 62 The Baron 3.44.1 Igel 1.2
2019-03-08 19:18 63 Nemorino 5.08 Minic 0.42
2019-03-08 20:28 64 Rodent III 0.276 Winter 0.5
2019-03-08 21:37 65 Topple 0.4.0 Tucano 7.07
2019-03-08 22:47 66 RubiChess 1.3.1 Topple 0.4.0
2019-03-08 23:57 67 Tucano 7.07 Rodent III 0.276
2019-03-09 01:07 68 Winter 0.5 Nemorino 5.08
2019-03-09 02:17 69 Minic 0.42 The Baron 3.44.1
2019-03-09 03:27 70 Igel 1.2 Cheese 2.0
2019-03-09 04:37 71 Igel 1.2 RubiChess 1.3.1
2019-03-09 05:47 72 Cheese 2.0 Minic 0.42
2019-03-09 06:57 73 The Baron 3.44.1 Winter 0.5
2019-03-09 08:07 74 Nemorino 5.08 Tucano 7.07
2019-03-09 09:17 75 Rodent III 0.276 Topple 0.4.0
2019-03-09 10:27 76 RubiChess 1.3.1 Rodent III 0.276
2019-03-09 11:37 77 Topple 0.4.0 Nemorino 5.08
2019-03-09 12:47 78 Tucano 7.07 The Baron 3.44.1
2019-03-09 13:57 79 Winter 0.5 Cheese 2.0
2019-03-09 15:07 80 Minic 0.42 Igel 1.2
2019-03-09 16:17 81 Minic 0.42 RubiChess 1.3.1
2019-03-09 17:27 82 Igel 1.2 Winter 0.5
2019-03-09 18:37 83 Cheese 2.0 Tucano 7.07
2019-03-09 19:47 84 The Baron 3.44.1 Topple 0.4.0
2019-03-09 20:57 85 Nemorino 5.08 Rodent III 0.276
2019-03-09 22:07 86 RubiChess 1.3.1 Nemorino 5.08
2019-03-09 23:17 87 Rodent III 0.276 The Baron 3.44.1
2019-03-10 00:26 88 Topple 0.4.0 Cheese 2.0
2019-03-10 01:36 89 Tucano 7.07 Igel 1.2
2019-03-10 02:46 90 Winter 0.5 Minic 0.42
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