Mar 08 2019
Off

For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Nemorino 5.08 11.0 14.52 0.93 1.19 83 14 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 RubiChess 1.3.1 9.5 13.19 0.86 1.99 16 71 12 1 0 0 0 0 0
3 Winter 0.5 8.0 11.74 1.09 3.29 1 12 53 27 5 1 0 0 0
4 The Baron 3.44.1 8.0 11.07 0.99 3.85 0 3 30 50 13 3 1 0 0
5 Tucano 7.07 6.0 9.41 1.07 5.49 0 0 2 13 40 27 18 1 0
6 Cheese 2.0 6.0 9.03 0.97 5.86 0 0 0 5 30 41 22 3 0
7 Rodent III 0.276 6.0 8.43 1.07 6.43 0 0 0 3 12 27 52 5 0
8 Minic 0.42 4.5 6.40 0.95 7.91 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 89 2
9 Topple 0.4.0 2.5 3.74 0.94 9.10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 86
10 Igel 1.2 1.5 2.48 0.84 9.88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2. Columns 1.-2. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5-10. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Nemorino 5.08 82.929% 14.417% 97.346% 2.497% 0.150% 0.007% 0.007%
2. RubiChess 1.3.1 15.946% 68.631% 84.577% 13.161% 2.149% 0.113% 0.106% 0.007%
3. Winter 0.5 1.086% 11.434% 12.520% 54.832% 24.371% 8.277% 6.237% 1.677% 0.345% 0.018%
4. The Baron 3.44.1 0.037% 5.371% 5.408% 26.291% 49.502% 18.799% 13.923% 3.774% 1.057% 0.045%
5. Rodent III 0.276 0.002% 0.072% 0.074% 0.769% 4.043% 95.114% 11.592% 25.485% 52.838% 5.057% 0.142%
6. Tucano 7.07 0.072% 0.072% 1.676% 12.900% 85.352% 37.203% 28.911% 17.215% 2.008% 0.015%
7. Cheese 2.0 0.003% 0.003% 0.773% 6.860% 92.364% 30.490% 37.509% 19.233% 5.083% 0.049%
8. Minic 0.42 0.001% 0.025% 99.974% 0.439% 2.608% 9.039% 84.753% 3.063% 0.072%
9. Topple 0.4.0 100.000% 0.003% 0.029% 0.271% 2.588% 79.485% 17.624%
10. Igel 1.2 100.000% 0.002% 0.448% 17.246% 82.304%

Speculate Rodent III 0.276 – Winter 0.5 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5-10. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Nemorino 5.08 84.535% 14.566% 99.101% 0.822% 0.071% 0.006% 0.005% 0.001%
2. RubiChess 1.3.1 15.337% 74.679% 90.016% 8.759% 1.062% 0.163% 0.149% 0.013% 0.001%
3. Winter 0.5 0.085% 3.404% 3.489% 44.818% 33.145% 18.548% 12.319% 4.920% 1.245% 0.064%
4. The Baron 3.44.1 0.042% 6.958% 7.000% 38.198% 33.677% 21.125% 14.135% 5.532% 1.411% 0.047%
5. Rodent III 0.276 0.001% 0.290% 0.291% 2.613% 9.266% 87.830% 20.876% 31.195% 34.709% 1.045% 0.005%
6. Tucano 7.07 0.095% 0.095% 3.308% 12.976% 83.621% 29.403% 25.441% 26.142% 2.612% 0.023%
7. Cheese 2.0 0.008% 0.008% 1.482% 9.775% 88.735% 22.815% 31.367% 28.507% 5.986% 0.060%
8. Minic 0.42 0.028% 99.972% 0.297% 1.517% 7.890% 87.213% 2.995% 0.060%
9. Topple 0.4.0 100.000% 0.001% 0.014% 0.094% 2.597% 78.794% 18.500%
10. Igel 1.2 100.000% 0.001% 0.436% 18.123% 81.440%

Speculate Rodent III 0.276 – Winter 0.5 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5-10. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Nemorino 5.08 83.945% 14.272% 98.217% 1.668% 0.108% 0.007% 0.007%
2. RubiChess 1.3.1 15.584% 71.530% 87.114% 11.064% 1.705% 0.117% 0.111% 0.005% 0.001%
3. Winter 0.5 0.416% 8.153% 8.569% 54.497% 28.532% 8.402% 6.945% 1.338% 0.113% 0.006%
4. The Baron 3.44.1 0.055% 5.959% 6.014% 29.637% 45.496% 18.853% 13.823% 3.927% 1.050% 0.053%
5. Tucano 7.07 0.061% 0.061% 1.877% 12.716% 85.346% 36.289% 28.141% 18.731% 2.161% 0.024%
6. Rodent III 0.276 0.020% 0.020% 0.341% 3.821% 95.818% 12.212% 28.194% 52.168% 3.210% 0.034%
7. Cheese 2.0 0.005% 0.005% 0.915% 7.600% 91.480% 30.228% 36.151% 19.898% 5.159% 0.044%
8. Minic 0.42 0.001% 0.022% 99.977% 0.384% 2.226% 7.901% 86.346% 3.044% 0.076%
9. Topple 0.4.0 100.000% 0.001% 0.018% 0.138% 2.618% 79.444% 17.781%
10. Igel 1.2 100.000% 0.447% 17.410% 82.143%

Speculate Rodent III 0.276 – Winter 0.5 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5-10. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Nemorino 5.08 81.188% 14.720% 95.908% 3.899% 0.185% 0.008% 0.008%
2. RubiChess 1.3.1 16.642% 63.840% 80.482% 16.663% 2.766% 0.089% 0.087% 0.002%
3. Winter 0.5 2.132% 17.142% 19.274% 59.745% 18.053% 2.928% 2.668% 0.252% 0.008%
4. The Baron 3.44.1 0.038% 4.269% 4.307% 18.428% 59.240% 18.025% 14.480% 2.847% 0.670% 0.028%
5. Tucano 7.07 0.028% 0.028% 0.843% 13.306% 85.823% 41.231% 31.040% 11.967% 1.574% 0.011%
6. Cheese 2.0 0.001% 0.001% 0.399% 5.022% 94.578% 34.484% 41.874% 14.023% 4.149% 0.048%
7. Rodent III 0.276 0.023% 1.404% 98.573% 6.553% 20.747% 63.181% 7.869% 0.223%
8. Minic 0.42 0.024% 99.976% 0.485% 3.210% 9.755% 83.202% 3.248% 0.076%
9. Topple 0.4.0 100.000% 0.004% 0.028% 0.395% 2.768% 79.797% 17.008%
10. Igel 1.2 100.000% 0.001% 0.410% 16.673% 82.916%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.10h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2019-03-08 17:11 65 Topple 0.4.0 Tucano 7.07
2019-03-08 18:17 66 RubiChess 1.3.1 Topple 0.4.0
2019-03-08 19:23 67 Tucano 7.07 Rodent III 0.276
2019-03-08 20:29 68 Winter 0.5 Nemorino 5.08
2019-03-08 21:34 69 Minic 0.42 The Baron 3.44.1
2019-03-08 22:40 70 Igel 1.2 Cheese 2.0
2019-03-08 23:46 71 Igel 1.2 RubiChess 1.3.1
2019-03-09 00:52 72 Cheese 2.0 Minic 0.42
2019-03-09 01:58 73 The Baron 3.44.1 Winter 0.5
2019-03-09 03:03 74 Nemorino 5.08 Tucano 7.07
2019-03-09 04:09 75 Rodent III 0.276 Topple 0.4.0
2019-03-09 05:15 76 RubiChess 1.3.1 Rodent III 0.276
2019-03-09 06:21 77 Topple 0.4.0 Nemorino 5.08
2019-03-09 07:27 78 Tucano 7.07 The Baron 3.44.1
2019-03-09 08:32 79 Winter 0.5 Cheese 2.0
2019-03-09 09:38 80 Minic 0.42 Igel 1.2
2019-03-09 10:44 81 Minic 0.42 RubiChess 1.3.1
2019-03-09 11:50 82 Igel 1.2 Winter 0.5
2019-03-09 12:56 83 Cheese 2.0 Tucano 7.07
2019-03-09 14:01 84 The Baron 3.44.1 Topple 0.4.0
2019-03-09 15:07 85 Nemorino 5.08 Rodent III 0.276
2019-03-09 16:13 86 RubiChess 1.3.1 Nemorino 5.08
2019-03-09 17:19 87 Rodent III 0.276 The Baron 3.44.1
2019-03-09 18:25 88 Topple 0.4.0 Cheese 2.0
2019-03-09 19:30 89 Tucano 7.07 Igel 1.2
2019-03-09 20:36 90 Winter 0.5 Minic 0.42
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