Mar 12 2019
Off

For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 pirarucu 2.9.5 7.5 15.58 1.32 1.05 97 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Wasp 3.59 5.0 10.97 1.55 3.60 1 31 23 18 14 8 4 1 0
3 Monolith 1 5.5 10.70 1.43 3.86 1 23 23 21 16 10 5 1 0
4 chess22k 1.12 5.5 10.58 1.45 3.99 1 21 22 20 18 11 5 2 0
5 Marvin 20190228 5.5 10.51 1.44 4.07 1 19 21 21 19 12 6 2 0
6 AllieStein v0.1-n4 4.5 9.07 1.47 5.69 0 3 7 12 18 26 21 12 1
7 ScorpioNN 2.9.0 4.0 8.30 1.43 6.51 0 1 3 6 12 21 31 24 3
8 Gaviota 1.01 3.5 7.41 1.25 7.39 0 0 0 1 4 11 26 51 6
9 Jumbo 0.6.99.2 1.5 4.43 1.50 9.03 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 7 75
10 Bagatur 1.5f 0.5 2.44 1.30 9.83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 15

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2. Columns 1.-2. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5-10. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. pirarucu 2.9.5 96.547% 2.564% 99.111% 0.621% 0.198% 0.070% 0.058% 0.011% 0.001%
2. Wasp 3.59 1.333% 31.914% 33.247% 22.502% 17.230% 27.021% 12.802% 7.869% 4.362% 1.762% 0.225% 0.001%
3. Monolith 1 0.855% 23.463% 24.318% 23.520% 20.227% 31.935% 15.809% 9.804% 4.723% 1.524% 0.075%
4. chess22k 1.12 0.611% 17.323% 17.934% 20.327% 20.829% 40.910% 18.568% 12.441% 7.052% 2.684% 0.161% 0.004%
5. Marvin 20190228 0.585% 19.719% 20.304% 21.672% 20.959% 37.065% 17.456% 11.391% 5.964% 2.091% 0.162% 0.001%
6. AllieStein v0.1-n4 0.056% 3.241% 3.297% 6.667% 11.110% 78.926% 17.059% 23.669% 21.464% 14.857% 1.839% 0.038%
7. ScorpioNN 2.9.0 0.013% 1.607% 1.620% 3.947% 7.297% 87.136% 12.488% 20.619% 27.147% 23.083% 3.672% 0.127%
8. Gaviota 1.01 0.160% 0.160% 0.708% 2.028% 97.104% 5.465% 13.235% 26.650% 44.988% 6.564% 0.202%
9. Jumbo 0.6.99.2 0.009% 0.009% 0.036% 0.119% 99.836% 0.284% 0.915% 2.480% 8.042% 68.155% 19.960%
10. Bagatur 1.5f 0.003% 99.997% 0.011% 0.046% 0.157% 0.969% 19.147% 79.667%

Speculate Jumbo 0.6.99.2 – Wasp 3.59 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5-10. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. pirarucu 2.9.5 97.256% 2.062% 99.318% 0.492% 0.136% 0.054% 0.047% 0.006% 0.001%
2. Monolith 1 0.947% 30.281% 31.228% 23.107% 18.181% 27.484% 13.097% 8.192% 4.450% 1.523% 0.218% 0.004%
3. chess22k 1.12 0.756% 21.676% 22.432% 21.774% 19.776% 36.018% 15.979% 10.668% 6.189% 2.690% 0.491% 0.001%
4. Marvin 20190228 0.660% 24.869% 25.529% 22.909% 19.082% 32.480% 14.716% 9.802% 5.459% 2.077% 0.422% 0.004%
5. Wasp 3.59 0.286% 14.004% 14.290% 17.119% 18.382% 50.209% 18.219% 14.788% 10.209% 5.518% 1.454% 0.021%
6. AllieStein v0.1-n4 0.073% 4.582% 4.655% 8.421% 12.611% 74.313% 16.925% 20.964% 18.992% 13.305% 4.030% 0.097%
7. ScorpioNN 2.9.0 0.021% 2.274% 2.295% 5.113% 8.647% 83.945% 13.441% 19.221% 23.150% 20.072% 7.817% 0.244%
8. Gaviota 1.01 0.001% 0.219% 0.220% 0.907% 2.672% 96.201% 6.309% 13.183% 24.408% 37.497% 14.291% 0.513%
9. Jumbo 0.6.99.2 0.033% 0.033% 0.157% 0.511% 99.299% 1.256% 3.138% 6.932% 16.461% 63.564% 7.948%
10. Bagatur 1.5f 0.001% 0.002% 99.997% 0.011% 0.038% 0.211% 0.856% 7.713% 91.168%

Speculate Jumbo 0.6.99.2 – Wasp 3.59 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5-10. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. pirarucu 2.9.5 97.066% 2.171% 99.237% 0.531% 0.157% 0.075% 0.055% 0.015% 0.004% 0.001%
2. Monolith 1 0.875% 27.139% 28.014% 22.900% 18.851% 30.235% 14.625% 9.239% 4.737% 1.523% 0.107% 0.004%
3. Wasp 3.59 0.688% 22.754% 23.442% 21.314% 19.404% 35.840% 16.080% 10.996% 6.026% 2.496% 0.238% 0.004%
4. chess22k 1.12 0.674% 19.803% 20.477% 20.684% 19.946% 38.893% 17.360% 11.839% 6.775% 2.657% 0.259% 0.003%
5. Marvin 20190228 0.620% 22.169% 22.789% 21.821% 19.717% 35.673% 16.507% 10.885% 5.804% 2.250% 0.223% 0.004%
6. AllieStein v0.1-n4 0.060% 3.932% 3.992% 7.474% 11.677% 76.857% 16.456% 22.701% 21.056% 14.149% 2.433% 0.062%
7. ScorpioNN 2.9.0 0.017% 1.840% 1.857% 4.439% 7.875% 85.829% 12.841% 20.196% 25.713% 21.969% 4.927% 0.183%
8. Gaviota 1.01 0.189% 0.189% 0.808% 2.259% 96.744% 5.707% 12.921% 26.084% 43.061% 8.644% 0.327%
9. Jumbo 0.6.99.2 0.003% 0.003% 0.029% 0.111% 99.857% 0.358% 1.166% 3.606% 10.904% 70.211% 13.612%
10. Bagatur 1.5f 0.003% 99.997% 0.011% 0.042% 0.195% 0.990% 12.958% 85.801%

Speculate Jumbo 0.6.99.2 – Wasp 3.59 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5-10. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. pirarucu 2.9.5 96.397% 2.682% 99.079% 0.632% 0.199% 0.090% 0.065% 0.022% 0.003%
2. Wasp 3.59 1.699% 37.489% 39.188% 23.938% 16.745% 20.129% 10.846% 5.957% 2.546% 0.763% 0.017%
3. Monolith 1 0.773% 21.712% 22.485% 23.624% 20.734% 33.157% 16.637% 9.980% 4.954% 1.538% 0.046% 0.002%
4. Marvin 20190228 0.542% 17.915% 18.457% 21.371% 21.420% 38.752% 18.458% 11.875% 6.241% 2.089% 0.087% 0.002%
5. chess22k 1.12 0.537% 15.964% 16.501% 20.045% 21.300% 42.154% 19.374% 13.016% 6.985% 2.692% 0.087%
6. AllieStein v0.1-n4 0.041% 2.845% 2.886% 6.285% 10.801% 80.028% 16.653% 24.430% 22.464% 15.329% 1.107% 0.045%
7. ScorpioNN 2.9.0 0.010% 1.308% 1.318% 3.492% 6.997% 88.193% 12.681% 21.117% 27.859% 23.883% 2.549% 0.104%
8. Gaviota 1.01 0.001% 0.085% 0.086% 0.607% 1.779% 97.528% 5.217% 13.236% 27.444% 46.975% 4.498% 0.158%
9. Jumbo 0.6.99.2 0.006% 0.023% 99.971% 0.062% 0.327% 1.333% 5.667% 68.892% 23.690%
10. Bagatur 1.5f 0.002% 99.998% 0.007% 0.040% 0.171% 1.064% 22.717% 75.999%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.11h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2019-03-12 18:48 45 Bagatur 1.5f pirarucu 2.9.5
2019-03-12 19:54 46 Gaviota 1.01 pirarucu 2.9.5
2019-03-12 21:01 47 Bagatur 1.5f Wasp 3.59
2019-03-12 22:08 48 Jumbo 0.6.99.2 chess22k 1.12
2019-03-12 23:14 49 Monolith 1 Marvin 20190228
2019-03-13 00:21 50 ScorpioNN 2.9.0 AllieStein v0.1-n4
2019-03-13 01:27 51 ScorpioNN 2.9.0 Gaviota 1.01
2019-03-13 02:34 52 AllieStein v0.1-n4 Monolith 1
2019-03-13 03:40 53 Marvin 20190228 Jumbo 0.6.99.2
2019-03-13 04:47 54 chess22k 1.12 Bagatur 1.5f
2019-03-13 05:53 55 Wasp 3.59 pirarucu 2.9.5
2019-03-13 07:00 56 Gaviota 1.01 Wasp 3.59
2019-03-13 08:07 57 pirarucu 2.9.5 chess22k 1.12
2019-03-13 09:13 58 Bagatur 1.5f Marvin 20190228
2019-03-13 10:20 59 Jumbo 0.6.99.2 AllieStein v0.1-n4
2019-03-13 11:26 60 Monolith 1 ScorpioNN 2.9.0
2019-03-13 12:33 61 Monolith 1 Gaviota 1.01
2019-03-13 13:39 62 ScorpioNN 2.9.0 Jumbo 0.6.99.2
2019-03-13 14:46 63 AllieStein v0.1-n4 Bagatur 1.5f
2019-03-13 15:52 64 Marvin 20190228 pirarucu 2.9.5
2019-03-13 16:59 65 chess22k 1.12 Wasp 3.59
2019-03-13 18:06 66 Gaviota 1.01 chess22k 1.12
2019-03-13 19:12 67 Wasp 3.59 Marvin 20190228
2019-03-13 20:19 68 pirarucu 2.9.5 AllieStein v0.1-n4
2019-03-13 21:25 69 Bagatur 1.5f ScorpioNN 2.9.0
2019-03-13 22:32 70 Jumbo 0.6.99.2 Monolith 1
2019-03-13 23:38 71 Jumbo 0.6.99.2 Gaviota 1.01
2019-03-14 00:45 72 Monolith 1 Bagatur 1.5f
2019-03-14 01:51 73 ScorpioNN 2.9.0 pirarucu 2.9.5
2019-03-14 02:58 74 AllieStein v0.1-n4 Wasp 3.59
2019-03-14 04:04 75 Marvin 20190228 chess22k 1.12
2019-03-14 05:11 76 Gaviota 1.01 Marvin 20190228
2019-03-14 06:18 77 chess22k 1.12 AllieStein v0.1-n4
2019-03-14 07:24 78 Wasp 3.59 ScorpioNN 2.9.0
2019-03-14 08:31 79 pirarucu 2.9.5 Monolith 1
2019-03-14 09:37 80 Bagatur 1.5f Jumbo 0.6.99.2
2019-03-14 10:44 81 Bagatur 1.5f Gaviota 1.01
2019-03-14 11:50 82 Jumbo 0.6.99.2 pirarucu 2.9.5
2019-03-14 12:57 83 Monolith 1 Wasp 3.59
2019-03-14 14:03 84 ScorpioNN 2.9.0 chess22k 1.12
2019-03-14 15:10 85 AllieStein v0.1-n4 Marvin 20190228
2019-03-14 16:17 86 Gaviota 1.01 AllieStein v0.1-n4
2019-03-14 17:23 87 Marvin 20190228 ScorpioNN 2.9.0
2019-03-14 18:30 88 chess22k 1.12 Monolith 1
2019-03-14 19:36 89 Wasp 3.59 Jumbo 0.6.99.2
2019-03-14 20:43 90 pirarucu 2.9.5 Bagatur 1.5f
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