For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 AllieStein v0.1-n4/v0.2-n4 12.0 15.87 1.17 2.16 38 30 19 9 3 1 0
2 rofChade 2.016T 11.5 15.83 1.31 2.27 37 27 18 10 5 2 1
3 Arasan TCEC15 11.0 15.09 1.31 3.10 17 22 24 18 11 5 2
4 Gull 3 10.0 14.45 1.21 3.86 6 14 21 26 17 9 4
5 Vajolet2 2.6.1 9.5 13.51 1.25 5.16 1 4 10 18 25 20 14
6 Nemorino 5.08 9.5 12.64 1.16 6.27 0 1 3 8 15 24 28
7 Texel 1.08a13 9.0 12.64 1.26 6.24 0 1 3 8 15 23 27
8 Pedone 1.9 8.5 11.98 1.29 6.93 0 0 1 4 9 15 24

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2. Columns 1.-2. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. AllieStein v0.2-n4 36.667% 29.057% 65.724% 19.264% 9.040% 3.869% 1.568% 0.535% 0.446% 0.089%
2. rofChade 2.016T 35.318% 26.919% 62.237% 18.397% 10.241% 5.389% 2.484% 1.252% 0.992% 0.260%
3. Arasan TCEC15 18.967% 21.213% 40.180% 20.970% 16.451% 11.302% 6.650% 4.447% 3.342% 1.105%
4. Gull 3 6.061% 13.513% 19.574% 20.722% 24.142% 18.029% 10.447% 7.086% 5.210% 1.876%
5. Vajolet2 2.6.1 1.933% 5.391% 7.324% 10.582% 17.586% 21.551% 19.043% 23.914% 14.546% 9.368%
6. Texel 1.08a13 0.624% 1.893% 2.517% 4.203% 8.412% 14.471% 22.020% 48.377% 26.253% 22.124%
7. Nemorino 5.08 0.296% 1.320% 1.616% 3.963% 9.248% 15.898% 22.020% 47.255% 25.025% 22.230%
8. Pedone 1.9 0.134% 0.694% 0.828% 1.899% 4.880% 9.491% 15.768% 67.134% 24.186% 42.948%

Speculate Gull 3 – Arasan TCEC15 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. AllieStein v0.2-n4 39.326% 27.941% 67.267% 16.674% 9.568% 4.248% 1.625% 0.618% 0.527% 0.091%
2. rofChade 2.016T 36.677% 26.363% 63.040% 16.592% 10.458% 5.818% 2.688% 1.404% 1.113% 0.291%
3. Gull 3 11.066% 20.623% 31.689% 26.370% 20.450% 12.452% 5.938% 3.101% 2.459% 0.642%
4. Arasan TCEC15 9.667% 15.154% 24.821% 19.357% 21.261% 16.382% 10.456% 7.723% 5.662% 2.061%
5. Vajolet2 2.6.1 2.056% 5.824% 7.880% 10.747% 16.750% 21.616% 19.084% 23.923% 14.558% 9.365%
6. Texel 1.08a13 0.747% 1.948% 2.695% 4.312% 8.200% 14.559% 22.249% 47.985% 25.955% 22.030%
7. Nemorino 5.08 0.312% 1.407% 1.719% 3.972% 8.789% 15.680% 21.809% 48.031% 25.439% 22.592%
8. Pedone 1.9 0.149% 0.740% 0.889% 1.976% 4.524% 9.245% 16.151% 67.215% 24.287% 42.928%

Speculate Gull 3 – Arasan TCEC15 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. AllieStein v0.2-n4 37.201% 28.954% 66.155% 18.507% 9.179% 4.012% 1.591% 0.556% 0.495% 0.061%
2. rofChade 2.016T 35.926% 26.849% 62.775% 17.931% 9.977% 5.443% 2.556% 1.318% 1.011% 0.307%
3. Arasan TCEC15 19.334% 23.087% 42.421% 22.452% 16.276% 10.287% 5.451% 3.113% 2.400% 0.713%
4. Gull 3 4.492% 11.616% 16.108% 20.344% 26.259% 19.052% 11.038% 7.199% 5.322% 1.877%
5. Vajolet2 2.6.1 1.963% 5.502% 7.465% 10.640% 16.490% 21.570% 19.306% 24.529% 15.058% 9.471%
6. Texel 1.08a13 0.652% 1.896% 2.548% 4.113% 8.305% 14.262% 22.226% 48.546% 26.057% 22.489%
7. Nemorino 5.08 0.291% 1.352% 1.643% 4.043% 8.861% 15.783% 21.788% 47.882% 25.276% 22.606%
8. Pedone 1.9 0.141% 0.744% 0.885% 1.970% 4.653% 9.591% 16.044% 66.857% 24.381% 42.476%

Speculate Gull 3 – Arasan TCEC15 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. AllieStein v0.2-n4 32.504% 30.349% 62.853% 23.021% 8.777% 3.508% 1.340% 0.501% 0.437% 0.064%
2. rofChade 2.016T 32.280% 27.503% 59.783% 21.643% 10.181% 5.048% 2.185% 1.160% 0.893% 0.267%
3. Arasan TCEC15 31.309% 28.482% 59.791% 22.094% 10.041% 4.852% 2.189% 1.033% 0.876% 0.157%
4. Vajolet2 2.6.1 1.611% 4.939% 6.550% 10.493% 18.959% 21.459% 18.693% 23.846% 14.542% 9.304%
5. Gull 3 1.380% 5.230% 6.610% 12.865% 27.497% 23.787% 16.038% 13.203% 9.233% 3.970%
6. Texel 1.08a13 0.531% 1.713% 2.244% 4.114% 8.783% 14.724% 21.457% 48.678% 25.746% 22.932%
7. Nemorino 5.08 0.268% 1.165% 1.433% 3.768% 10.376% 16.689% 22.088% 45.646% 24.303% 21.343%
8. Pedone 1.9 0.117% 0.619% 0.736% 2.002% 5.386% 9.933% 16.010% 65.933% 23.970% 41.963%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2019-03-20 10:44 83 Texel 1.08a13 rofChade 2.016T
2019-03-20 11:49 84 Vajolet2 2.6.1 Pedone 1.9
2019-03-20 12:53 85 AllieStein v0.2-n4 Pedone 1.9
2019-03-20 13:58 86 Vajolet2 2.6.1 rofChade 2.016T
2019-03-20 15:03 87 Texel 1.08a13 Arasan TCEC15
2019-03-20 16:08 88 Gull 3 Nemorino 5.08
2019-03-20 17:13 89 Gull 3 AllieStein v0.2-n4
2019-03-20 18:18 90 Nemorino 5.08 Texel 1.08a13
2019-03-20 19:23 91 Arasan TCEC15 Vajolet2 2.6.1
2019-03-20 20:28 92 rofChade 2.016T Pedone 1.9
2019-03-20 21:33 93 AllieStein v0.2-n4 rofChade 2.016T
2019-03-20 22:38 94 Pedone 1.9 Arasan TCEC15
2019-03-20 23:43 95 Vajolet2 2.6.1 Nemorino 5.08
2019-03-21 00:48 96 Texel 1.08a13 Gull 3
2019-03-21 01:53 97 Texel 1.08a13 AllieStein v0.2-n4
2019-03-21 02:58 98 Gull 3 Vajolet2 2.6.1
2019-03-21 04:02 99 Nemorino 5.08 Pedone 1.9
2019-03-21 05:07 100 Arasan TCEC15 rofChade 2.016T
2019-03-21 06:12 101 AllieStein v0.2-n4 Arasan TCEC15
2019-03-21 07:17 102 rofChade 2.016T Nemorino 5.08
2019-03-21 08:22 103 Pedone 1.9 Gull 3
2019-03-21 09:27 104 Vajolet2 2.6.1 Texel 1.08a13
2019-03-21 10:32 105 Vajolet2 2.6.1 AllieStein v0.2-n4
2019-03-21 11:37 106 Texel 1.08a13 Pedone 1.9
2019-03-21 12:42 107 Gull 3 rofChade 2.016T
2019-03-21 13:47 108 Nemorino 5.08 Arasan TCEC15
2019-03-21 14:52 109 AllieStein v0.2-n4 Nemorino 5.08
2019-03-21 15:57 110 Arasan TCEC15 Gull 3
2019-03-21 17:02 111 rofChade 2.016T Texel 1.08a13
2019-03-21 18:07 112 Pedone 1.9 Vajolet2 2.6.1