For ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
These values are higher for TCEC, need to find correct values:
eloAdvantage = 32.8
eloDraw = 97.3
OctoFinal, match #22, simulation about most common winner
| Pos |
Name |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
Laser 230319 |
70.531% |
| 2. |
Ethereal 11.38 |
29.469% |
% of various results
| Pos |
Result |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
2.5-4.5 |
18.363% |
| 2. |
3.5-4.5 |
16.582% |
| 3. |
3.0-5.0 |
13.145% |
| 4. |
2.0-5.0 |
12.451% |
| 5. |
4.5-3.5 |
11.350% |
| 6. |
5.0-3.0 |
5.474% |
| 7. |
5.5-4.5 |
4.792% |
| 8. |
4.5-5.5 |
4.136% |
| 9. |
6.0-4.0 |
3.705% |
| 10. |
4.0-6.0 |
2.540% |
|
Rest |
7.462% |
OctoFinal, match #23, simulation about most common winner
| Pos |
Name |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
Komodo 2319.00 |
91.194% |
| 2. |
Chiron 230119 |
8.806% |
% of various results
| Pos |
Result |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
4.5-1.5 |
15.530% |
| 2. |
4.5-0.5 |
14.163% |
| 3. |
4.5-2.5 |
12.086% |
| 4. |
5.0-1.0 |
11.847% |
| 5. |
5.0-2.0 |
11.247% |
| 6. |
5.0-0.0 |
8.786% |
| 7. |
4.5-3.5 |
6.444% |
| 8. |
5.0-3.0 |
5.838% |
| 9. |
3.5-4.5 |
2.916% |
| 10. |
6.0-4.0 |
2.040% |
|
Rest |
9.103% |
OctoFinal, match #24, simulation about most common winner
| Pos |
Name |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
KomodoMCTS 2322.00 |
72.468% |
| 2. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
27.532% |
% of various results
| Pos |
Result |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
4.5-2.5 |
12.995% |
| 2. |
4.5-1.5 |
11.058% |
| 3. |
4.5-3.5 |
9.784% |
| 4. |
5.0-2.0 |
8.664% |
| 5. |
3.5-4.5 |
7.214% |
| 6. |
4.5-0.5 |
6.734% |
| 7. |
5.0-3.0 |
6.515% |
| 8. |
5.0-1.0 |
5.959% |
| 9. |
2.5-4.5 |
4.739% |
| 10. |
3.0-5.0 |
3.477% |
|
Rest |
22.861% |
QuarterFinal, match #25, simulation about most common winner
| Pos |
Name |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
LCZero v0.21.1-nT40.T6.532 |
81.143% |
| 2. |
Fire 021819 |
18.857% |
% of various results
| Pos |
Result |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
4.5-2.5 |
13.568% |
| 2. |
4.5-1.5 |
13.158% |
| 3. |
5.0-2.0 |
10.132% |
| 4. |
4.5-0.5 |
9.035% |
| 5. |
4.5-3.5 |
8.995% |
| 6. |
5.0-1.0 |
7.954% |
| 7. |
5.0-3.0 |
6.672% |
| 8. |
3.5-4.5 |
5.473% |
| 9. |
5.0-0.0 |
4.230% |
| 10. |
2.5-4.5 |
3.326% |
|
Rest |
17.457% |
QuarterFinal, match #26, simulation about most common winner
| Pos |
Name |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
Houdini 6.03 |
74.673% |
| 2. |
AllieStein v0.3-n6.1 |
25.327% |
% of various results
| Pos |
Result |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
2.5-4.5 |
12.564% |
| 2. |
1.5-4.5 |
12.012% |
| 3. |
3.5-4.5 |
11.636% |
| 4. |
3.0-5.0 |
8.604% |
| 5. |
2.0-5.0 |
7.442% |
| 6. |
1.0-5.0 |
6.398% |
| 7. |
4.5-3.5 |
6.377% |
| 8. |
0.5-4.5 |
5.505% |
| 9. |
4.5-2.5 |
5.313% |
| 10. |
4.5-5.5 |
3.143% |
|
Rest |
21.006% |
QuarterFinal, match #27, simulation about most common winner
| Pos |
Name |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
Stockfish 19042711 |
83.383% |
| 2. |
Laser 230319 |
10.896% |
| 3. |
Ethereal 11.38 |
5.721% |
% of various results
| Pos |
Result |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
4.5-1.5 |
13.771% |
| 2. |
4.5-2.5 |
13.403% |
| 3. |
5.0-2.0 |
10.389% |
| 4. |
4.5-0.5 |
10.148% |
| 5. |
5.0-1.0 |
8.686% |
| 6. |
4.5-3.5 |
8.516% |
| 7. |
5.0-3.0 |
6.685% |
| 8. |
3.5-4.5 |
4.955% |
| 9. |
5.0-0.0 |
4.934% |
| 10. |
2.5-4.5 |
2.892% |
|
Rest |
15.621% |
QuarterFinal, match #28, simulation about most common winner
| Pos |
Name |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
Komodo 2319.00 |
54.890% |
| 2. |
KomodoMCTS 2322.00 |
34.881% |
| 3. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
8.563% |
| 4. |
Chiron 230119 |
1.666% |
% of various results
| Pos |
Result |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
4.5-2.5 |
10.776% |
| 2. |
3.5-4.5 |
9.335% |
| 3. |
4.5-3.5 |
9.331% |
| 4. |
4.5-1.5 |
7.663% |
| 5. |
2.5-4.5 |
7.201% |
| 6. |
5.0-2.0 |
6.416% |
| 7. |
1.5-4.5 |
5.919% |
| 8. |
5.0-3.0 |
5.483% |
| 9. |
3.0-5.0 |
5.347% |
| 10. |
4.5-0.5 |
4.263% |
|
Rest |
28.266% |
SemiFinal, match #29, simulation about most common winner
| Pos |
Name |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
LCZero v0.21.1-nT40.T6.532 |
56.148% |
| 2. |
Houdini 6.03 |
31.021% |
| 3. |
Fire 021819 |
7.210% |
| 4. |
AllieStein v0.3-n6.1 |
5.621% |
% of various results
| Pos |
Result |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
4.5-2.5 |
11.757% |
| 2. |
4.5-3.5 |
9.638% |
| 3. |
4.5-1.5 |
9.229% |
| 4. |
3.5-4.5 |
8.525% |
| 5. |
5.0-2.0 |
7.229% |
| 6. |
2.5-4.5 |
6.384% |
| 7. |
5.0-3.0 |
5.936% |
| 8. |
4.5-0.5 |
5.193% |
| 9. |
1.5-4.5 |
4.720% |
| 10. |
3.0-5.0 |
4.654% |
|
Rest |
26.735% |
SemiFinal, match #30, simulation about most common winner
| Pos |
Name |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
Stockfish 19042711 |
60.446% |
| 2. |
Komodo 2319.00 |
20.212% |
| 3. |
KomodoMCTS 2322.00 |
10.853% |
| 4. |
Laser 230319 |
4.170% |
| 5. |
Ethereal 11.38 |
2.434% |
| 6. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
1.739% |
| 7. |
Chiron 230119 |
0.146% |
% of various results
| Pos |
Result |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
4.5-2.5 |
12.030% |
| 2. |
4.5-1.5 |
9.983% |
| 3. |
4.5-3.5 |
9.201% |
| 4. |
5.0-2.0 |
7.940% |
| 5. |
3.5-4.5 |
7.825% |
| 6. |
4.5-0.5 |
6.008% |
| 7. |
5.0-3.0 |
6.007% |
| 8. |
2.5-4.5 |
5.639% |
| 9. |
5.0-1.0 |
5.620% |
| 10. |
3.0-5.0 |
4.110% |
|
Rest |
25.637% |
Final, match #31, simulation about most common winner
| Pos |
Name |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
Stockfish 19042711 |
36.761% |
| 2. |
LCZero v0.21.1-nT40.T6.532 |
31.638% |
| 3. |
Houdini 6.03 |
12.735% |
| 4. |
Komodo 2319.00 |
9.023% |
| 5. |
KomodoMCTS 2322.00 |
4.076% |
| 6. |
Fire 021819 |
2.012% |
| 7. |
AllieStein v0.3-n6.1 |
1.304% |
| 8. |
Laser 230319 |
1.181% |
| 9. |
Ethereal 11.38 |
0.760% |
| 10. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
0.493% |
| 11. |
Chiron 230119 |
0.017% |
% of various results
| Pos |
Result |
% of simulations |
| 1. |
3.5-4.5 |
10.114% |
| 2. |
4.5-2.5 |
9.259% |
| 3. |
2.5-4.5 |
8.847% |
| 4. |
4.5-3.5 |
8.498% |
| 5. |
1.5-4.5 |
7.477% |
| 6. |
4.5-1.5 |
6.353% |
| 7. |
3.0-5.0 |
6.235% |
| 8. |
5.0-2.0 |
5.087% |
| 9. |
5.0-3.0 |
4.702% |
| 10. |
2.0-5.0 |
4.589% |
|
Rest |
28.839% |