For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 Stoofvlees II a10/II a11 18.0 22.94 1.06 1.07 94 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 16.0 20.52 1.10 2.44 4 61 25 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 Arasan TCEC16 15.5 19.70 1.16 3.18 2 27 40 19 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 Pedone 230719 14.5 18.45 1.19 4.56 0 4 17 31 24 18 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 Nemorino 5.17 14.0 18.06 1.20 5.01 0 2 11 24 27 26 8 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 Fritz 16.10 14.0 17.88 1.09 5.20 0 1 6 19 32 33 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 Texel 1.08a13 13.5 16.14 1.03 7.19 0 0 0 1 5 14 47 24 8 2 0 0 0 0 0
8 Gull 3 12.0 15.29 1.02 8.24 0 0 0 0 1 4 20 37 26 9 3 0 0 0 0
9 Vajolet2 2.7 12.0 14.81 1.09 8.82 0 0 0 0 0 2 11 24 36 17 7 1 0 0 0
10 RubiChess 1.5 10.5 13.42 1.18 10.46 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 13 27 30 20 2 0 0
11 Wasp 3.68/3.69 10.0 13.37 1.12 10.59 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 11 30 32 20 2 0 0
12 Nirvana 2.4 9.5 12.59 1.10 11.42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 14 25 47 7 1 0
13 chess22k 1.12/1.13 8.0 10.18 1.03 13.63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 43 36 14
14 Pirarucu 3.0.7 7.5 10.10 1.17 13.68 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 37 39 15
15 Marvin 3.4.0 6.0 8.79 1.10 14.88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 18 51
16 Topple 0.7.2_dev 5.0 7.76 1.10 15.63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 21

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-16. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Stoofvlees II a11 94.239% 4.969% 0.673% 0.093% 99.974% 0.023% 0.003%
2. ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 3.777% 57.254% 27.906% 7.652% 96.589% 2.548% 0.748% 0.107% 0.007% 0.001%
3. Arasan TCEC16 1.839% 29.642% 34.783% 20.002% 86.266% 9.353% 3.923% 0.410% 0.044% 0.004%
4. Pedone 230719 0.057% 4.415% 18.324% 27.724% 50.520% 22.263% 17.979% 6.516% 2.230% 0.452% 0.040%
5. Nemorino 5.17 0.034% 2.098% 11.190% 22.656% 35.978% 27.611% 22.708% 9.253% 3.354% 0.961% 0.121% 0.014% 0.014%
6. Fritz 16.10 0.054% 1.595% 6.836% 19.502% 27.987% 30.224% 30.737% 7.916% 2.448% 0.573% 0.102% 0.013% 0.012% 0.001%
7. Texel 1.08a13 0.027% 0.281% 1.944% 2.252% 5.573% 14.248% 38.550% 26.173% 10.473% 2.318% 0.413% 0.397% 0.016%
8. Gull 3 0.003% 0.292% 0.295% 1.693% 6.364% 23.329% 32.481% 23.791% 8.787% 3.260% 2.814% 0.425% 0.019% 0.002%
9. Vajolet2 2.7 0.003% 0.131% 0.134% 0.650% 2.798% 10.662% 23.162% 33.671% 18.078% 10.845% 8.300% 2.421% 0.123% 0.001%
10. RubiChess 1.5 0.001% 0.004% 0.005% 0.058% 0.389% 2.502% 6.320% 14.283% 25.496% 50.947% 27.288% 21.729% 1.794% 0.134% 0.002%
11. Wasp 3.69 0.003% 0.098% 0.646% 2.856% 10.127% 26.784% 59.486% 32.625% 23.178% 3.126% 0.502% 0.055%
12. Nirvana 2.4 0.001% 0.005% 0.107% 0.912% 5.587% 17.810% 75.578% 26.323% 40.378% 7.365% 1.396% 0.114% 0.002%
13. Pirarucu 3.0.7 0.002% 0.013% 0.072% 0.345% 99.568% 1.407% 6.671% 39.008% 33.554% 14.974% 3.954%
14. chess22k 1.13 0.005% 0.111% 99.884% 0.713% 4.213% 35.231% 36.194% 19.188% 4.345%
15. Marvin 3.4.0 0.008% 99.992% 0.101% 0.878% 10.252% 20.024% 42.322% 26.415%
16. Topple 0.7.2_dev 100.000% 0.006% 0.090% 3.082% 8.193% 23.345% 65.284%

Speculate Arasan TCEC16 – Pedone 230719 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-16. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Stoofvlees II a11 93.146% 5.774% 0.923% 0.140% 99.983% 0.017%
2. ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 3.706% 50.263% 35.643% 7.321% 96.933% 2.374% 0.585% 0.104% 0.004%
3. Arasan TCEC16 3.086% 40.421% 41.058% 11.468% 96.033% 3.170% 0.759% 0.038%
4. Nemorino 5.17 0.024% 1.810% 10.211% 26.699% 38.744% 25.820% 21.730% 9.091% 3.492% 1.004% 0.111% 0.008% 0.008%
5. Fritz 16.10 0.037% 1.219% 6.224% 23.384% 30.864% 32.473% 26.225% 7.422% 2.301% 0.605% 0.100% 0.010% 0.008% 0.002%
6. Pedone 230719 0.001% 0.499% 5.665% 28.021% 34.186% 26.782% 24.642% 9.799% 3.674% 0.852% 0.061% 0.004% 0.004%
7. Texel 1.08a13 0.014% 0.265% 2.409% 2.688% 6.408% 15.603% 36.371% 25.908% 10.298% 2.355% 0.369% 0.361% 0.008%
8. Gull 3 0.004% 0.396% 0.400% 2.035% 6.871% 23.080% 31.811% 23.705% 8.919% 3.179% 2.746% 0.409% 0.023% 0.001%
9. Vajolet2 2.7 0.007% 0.157% 0.164% 0.835% 3.094% 10.853% 23.082% 33.512% 17.996% 10.464% 8.161% 2.199% 0.103% 0.001%
10. RubiChess 1.5 0.005% 0.005% 0.076% 0.397% 2.520% 6.168% 14.484% 25.365% 50.985% 27.536% 21.629% 1.696% 0.122% 0.002%
11. Wasp 3.69 0.009% 0.084% 0.604% 2.643% 9.837% 26.860% 59.963% 32.573% 23.709% 3.092% 0.518% 0.071%
12. Nirvana 2.4 0.001% 0.010% 0.118% 0.907% 5.620% 17.771% 75.573% 26.537% 40.369% 7.205% 1.341% 0.118% 0.003%
13. Pirarucu 3.0.7 0.009% 0.076% 0.348% 99.567% 1.306% 6.437% 38.511% 34.116% 15.171% 4.026%
14. chess22k 1.13 0.001% 0.007% 0.101% 99.891% 0.668% 4.331% 36.341% 35.733% 18.715% 4.103%
15. Marvin 3.4.0 0.013% 99.987% 0.091% 0.825% 9.925% 19.988% 42.059% 27.099%
16. Topple 0.7.2_dev 100.000% 0.001% 0.082% 3.104% 8.180% 23.864% 64.769%

Speculate Arasan TCEC16 – Pedone 230719 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-16. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Stoofvlees II a11 94.876% 4.439% 0.557% 0.111% 99.983% 0.017%
2. ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 3.783% 60.856% 24.026% 7.548% 96.213% 2.842% 0.836% 0.104% 0.005%
3. Arasan TCEC16 1.196% 26.539% 35.058% 22.608% 85.401% 10.437% 3.853% 0.295% 0.014%
4. Pedone 230719 0.033% 3.980% 20.498% 29.552% 54.063% 22.359% 16.535% 5.339% 1.468% 0.223% 0.013%
5. Nemorino 5.17 0.048% 2.318% 12.159% 19.871% 34.396% 27.966% 23.530% 9.360% 3.594% 1.007% 0.131% 0.016% 0.014% 0.002%
6. Fritz 16.10 0.064% 1.833% 7.363% 18.214% 27.474% 28.952% 32.187% 8.152% 2.568% 0.536% 0.110% 0.021% 0.021%
7. Texel 1.08a13 0.035% 0.330% 1.725% 2.090% 5.167% 13.793% 38.891% 26.610% 10.570% 2.446% 0.433% 0.419% 0.014%
8. Gull 3 0.006% 0.266% 0.272% 1.540% 6.112% 23.804% 32.481% 23.509% 9.050% 3.232% 2.787% 0.421% 0.024%
9. Vajolet2 2.7 0.003% 0.100% 0.103% 0.675% 2.696% 10.717% 23.261% 33.450% 18.176% 10.922% 8.423% 2.382% 0.114% 0.003%
10. RubiChess 1.5 0.005% 0.005% 0.040% 0.360% 2.558% 6.310% 14.789% 25.162% 50.776% 27.164% 21.621% 1.855% 0.135% 0.001%
11. Wasp 3.69 0.005% 0.092% 0.649% 2.733% 10.116% 26.996% 59.409% 32.486% 23.320% 3.077% 0.480% 0.045% 0.001%
12. Nirvana 2.4 0.006% 0.130% 0.945% 5.700% 17.417% 75.802% 26.508% 40.633% 7.165% 1.380% 0.114% 0.002%
13. Pirarucu 3.0.7 0.001% 0.011% 0.096% 0.378% 99.514% 1.401% 6.493% 39.132% 33.551% 15.055% 3.882%
14. chess22k 1.13 0.004% 0.114% 99.882% 0.687% 4.225% 35.479% 36.147% 19.059% 4.285%
15. Marvin 3.4.0 0.007% 99.993% 0.087% 0.804% 10.097% 20.138% 42.105% 26.762%
16. Topple 0.7.2_dev 100.000% 0.003% 0.085% 3.057% 8.166% 23.621% 65.068%

Speculate Arasan TCEC16 – Pedone 230719 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-16. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Stoofvlees II a11 95.372% 4.067% 0.438% 0.102% 99.979% 0.017% 0.004%
2. ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 3.946% 66.296% 17.420% 8.219% 95.881% 3.015% 0.948% 0.138% 0.018%
3. Pedone 230719 0.168% 11.613% 37.363% 24.988% 74.132% 14.634% 8.394% 2.274% 0.499% 0.065% 0.002%
4. Arasan TCEC16 0.403% 13.561% 24.685% 31.228% 69.877% 19.439% 9.496% 1.070% 0.109% 0.008% 0.001%
5. Nemorino 5.17 0.044% 2.252% 11.971% 18.783% 33.050% 28.806% 24.065% 9.408% 3.564% 0.971% 0.129% 0.007% 0.007%
6. Fritz 16.10 0.067% 2.181% 7.744% 15.031% 25.023% 27.893% 35.404% 8.460% 2.555% 0.567% 0.086% 0.012% 0.012%
7. Texel 1.08a13 0.030% 0.368% 1.412% 1.810% 4.352% 12.997% 40.369% 27.164% 10.375% 2.480% 0.453% 0.435% 0.018%
8. Gull 3 0.008% 0.173% 0.181% 1.231% 5.629% 24.024% 32.518% 24.013% 8.996% 3.408% 2.929% 0.455% 0.023% 0.001%
9. Vajolet2 2.7 0.002% 0.061% 0.063% 0.561% 2.613% 10.777% 23.352% 33.217% 18.340% 11.077% 8.552% 2.396% 0.127% 0.002%
10. RubiChess 1.5 0.001% 0.003% 0.004% 0.044% 0.360% 2.717% 6.387% 14.617% 25.197% 50.674% 26.995% 21.670% 1.890% 0.117% 0.002%
11. Wasp 3.69 0.006% 0.076% 0.640% 2.877% 10.337% 26.625% 59.439% 32.401% 23.351% 3.158% 0.493% 0.036%
12. Nirvana 2.4 0.002% 0.014% 0.122% 0.941% 5.732% 17.625% 75.564% 26.379% 40.286% 7.366% 1.415% 0.117% 0.001%
13. Pirarucu 3.0.7 0.001% 0.016% 0.091% 0.402% 99.490% 1.489% 6.648% 39.710% 32.970% 14.782% 3.891%
14. chess22k 1.13 0.007% 0.108% 99.885% 0.692% 4.231% 34.308% 36.555% 19.642% 4.457%
15. Marvin 3.4.0 0.009% 99.991% 0.106% 0.852% 10.297% 20.325% 42.257% 26.154%
16. Topple 0.7.2_dev 100.000% 0.003% 0.093% 3.121% 8.122% 23.164% 65.497%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.06h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2019-08-06 14:41 188 Nirvana 2.4 Nemorino 5.17
2019-08-06 15:44 189 Fritz 16.10 RubiChess 1.5
2019-08-06 16:48 190 Topple 0.7.2_dev Pirarucu 3.0.7
2019-08-06 17:51 191 Wasp 3.69 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-08-06 18:55 192 Marvin 3.4.0 Stoofvlees II a11
2019-08-06 19:59 193 Marvin 3.4.0 chess22k 1.13
2019-08-06 21:02 194 Stoofvlees II a11 Wasp 3.69
2019-08-06 22:06 195 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 Topple 0.7.2_dev
2019-08-06 23:09 196 Pirarucu 3.0.7 Fritz 16.10
2019-08-07 00:13 197 RubiChess 1.5 Nirvana 2.4
2019-08-07 01:16 198 Nemorino 5.17 Arasan TCEC16
2019-08-07 02:20 199 Pedone 230719 Texel 1.08a13
2019-08-07 03:23 200 Gull 3 Vajolet2 2.7
2019-08-07 04:27 201 chess22k 1.13 Gull 3
2019-08-07 05:30 202 Vajolet2 2.7 Pedone 230719
2019-08-07 06:34 203 Texel 1.08a13 Nemorino 5.17
2019-08-07 07:37 204 Arasan TCEC16 RubiChess 1.5
2019-08-07 08:41 205 Nirvana 2.4 Pirarucu 3.0.7
2019-08-07 09:44 206 Fritz 16.10 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-08-07 10:48 207 Topple 0.7.2_dev Stoofvlees II a11
2019-08-07 11:51 208 Wasp 3.69 Marvin 3.4.0
2019-08-07 12:55 209 Wasp 3.69 chess22k 1.13
2019-08-07 13:58 210 Marvin 3.4.0 Topple 0.7.2_dev
2019-08-07 15:02 211 Stoofvlees II a11 Fritz 16.10
2019-08-07 16:05 212 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 Nirvana 2.4
2019-08-07 17:09 213 Pirarucu 3.0.7 Arasan TCEC16
2019-08-07 18:12 214 RubiChess 1.5 Texel 1.08a13
2019-08-07 19:16 215 Nemorino 5.17 Vajolet2 2.7
2019-08-07 20:19 216 Pedone 230719 Gull 3
2019-08-07 21:23 217 chess22k 1.13 Pedone 230719
2019-08-07 22:27 218 Gull 3 Nemorino 5.17
2019-08-07 23:30 219 Vajolet2 2.7 RubiChess 1.5
2019-08-08 00:34 220 Texel 1.08a13 Pirarucu 3.0.7
2019-08-08 01:37 221 Arasan TCEC16 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-08-08 02:41 222 Nirvana 2.4 Stoofvlees II a11
2019-08-08 03:44 223 Fritz 16.10 Marvin 3.4.0
2019-08-08 04:48 224 Topple 0.7.2_dev Wasp 3.69
2019-08-08 05:51 225 Topple 0.7.2_dev chess22k 1.13
2019-08-08 06:55 226 Wasp 3.69 Fritz 16.10
2019-08-08 07:58 227 Marvin 3.4.0 Nirvana 2.4
2019-08-08 09:02 228 Stoofvlees II a11 Arasan TCEC16
2019-08-08 10:05 229 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 Texel 1.08a13
2019-08-08 11:09 230 Pirarucu 3.0.7 Vajolet2 2.7
2019-08-08 12:12 231 RubiChess 1.5 Gull 3
2019-08-08 13:16 232 Nemorino 5.17 Pedone 230719
2019-08-08 14:19 233 chess22k 1.13 Nemorino 5.17
2019-08-08 15:23 234 Pedone 230719 RubiChess 1.5
2019-08-08 16:26 235 Gull 3 Pirarucu 3.0.7
2019-08-08 17:30 236 Vajolet2 2.7 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-08-08 18:33 237 Texel 1.08a13 Stoofvlees II a11
2019-08-08 19:37 238 Arasan TCEC16 Marvin 3.4.0
2019-08-08 20:40 239 Nirvana 2.4 Wasp 3.69
2019-08-08 21:44 240 Fritz 16.10 Topple 0.7.2_dev