For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 Stoofvlees II a10/II a11 20.5 22.49 0.71 1.03 97 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 19.0 20.80 0.73 1.99 3 95 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 Nemorino 5.17 16.0 18.42 0.86 4.38 0 1 34 23 20 17 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 Fritz 16.10 16.5 18.41 0.71 4.35 0 0 26 33 23 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 Pedone 230719 16.0 18.32 0.86 4.55 0 1 28 22 22 21 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 Arasan TCEC16 16.5 18.07 0.72 5.01 0 0 11 21 30 31 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 Texel 1.08a13 15.5 16.83 0.70 6.96 0 0 0 1 4 13 64 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 Vajolet2 2.7 14.0 15.99 0.87 7.90 0 0 0 0 1 3 17 65 12 2 0 0 0 0 0
9 Gull 3 12.5 14.55 0.83 9.37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 52 35 5 0 0 0 0
10 RubiChess 1.5 13.0 14.28 0.74 9.60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 35 51 8 0 0 0 0
11 Wasp 3.68/3.69 11.5 12.99 0.74 11.03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 12 72 14 1 0 0
12 Nirvana 2.4 10.5 11.85 0.72 12.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 67 19 1 0
13 chess22k 1.12/1.13 10.0 11.09 0.72 12.84 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 19 75 5 0
14 Pirarucu 3.0.7 8.5 9.53 0.72 14.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 66 29
15 Marvin 3.4.0 8.0 9.07 0.71 14.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 29 68
16 Topple 0.7.2_dev 6.0 7.30 0.73 15.98 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-16. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Stoofvlees II a11 97.267% 2.733% 100.000%
2. ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 2.733% 94.901% 1.781% 0.494% 99.909% 0.089% 0.002%
3. Nemorino 5.17 0.625% 34.550% 21.464% 56.639% 19.176% 13.497% 7.825% 2.795% 0.068%
4. Fritz 16.10 0.218% 25.377% 30.983% 56.578% 23.974% 16.244% 2.751% 0.452% 0.001%
5. Pedone 230719 0.564% 28.117% 22.936% 51.617% 21.508% 17.181% 8.041% 1.520% 0.133%
6. Arasan TCEC16 0.959% 9.716% 21.882% 32.557% 27.809% 32.355% 6.729% 0.549% 0.001%
7. Texel 1.08a13 0.403% 1.856% 2.259% 6.060% 15.939% 54.706% 19.300% 1.728% 0.008%
8. Vajolet2 2.7 0.056% 0.385% 0.441% 1.380% 4.698% 18.531% 56.495% 14.846% 3.527% 0.082% 0.082%
9. Gull 3 0.004% 0.083% 1.234% 8.530% 54.527% 30.749% 4.873% 4.794% 0.078% 0.001%
10. RubiChess 1.5 0.001% 0.183% 10.357% 27.784% 52.738% 8.937% 8.746% 0.191%
11. Wasp 3.69 0.002% 0.906% 11.480% 87.612% 63.089% 22.959% 1.555% 0.009%
12. Nirvana 2.4 0.006% 1.493% 98.501% 22.321% 59.974% 15.744% 0.455% 0.007%
13. chess22k 1.13 0.005% 99.995% 0.968% 16.251% 70.605% 11.189% 0.982%
14. Pirarucu 3.0.7 100.000% 0.407% 8.978% 59.001% 31.291% 0.323%
15. Marvin 3.4.0 100.000% 0.140% 3.117% 29.038% 61.604% 6.101%
16. Topple 0.7.2_dev 100.000% 0.308% 6.116% 93.576%

Speculate Nemorino 5.17 – Vajolet2 2.7 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-16. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Stoofvlees II a11 97.203% 2.797% 100.000%
2. ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 2.797% 94.395% 2.120% 0.580% 99.892% 0.105% 0.003%
3. Nemorino 5.17 1.213% 47.653% 22.998% 71.864% 16.849% 8.577% 2.710%
4. Fritz 16.10 0.158% 18.168% 33.984% 52.310% 25.950% 19.093% 2.483% 0.164%
5. Pedone 230719 0.603% 25.484% 20.191% 46.278% 24.348% 19.853% 8.741% 0.696% 0.084%
6. Arasan TCEC16 0.834% 6.396% 20.847% 28.077% 27.440% 37.692% 6.657% 0.134%
7. Texel 1.08a13 0.179% 1.400% 1.579% 5.293% 14.159% 65.905% 11.785% 1.277% 0.002%
8. Vajolet2 2.7 0.014% 0.528% 11.596% 60.614% 21.217% 5.899% 0.132% 0.132%
9. Gull 3 0.001% 0.094% 1.702% 11.928% 50.902% 30.441% 4.932% 4.837% 0.093% 0.002%
10. RubiChess 1.5 0.001% 0.206% 14.673% 25.545% 50.767% 8.808% 8.643% 0.165%
11. Wasp 3.69 0.006% 0.970% 11.430% 87.594% 63.016% 23.084% 1.486% 0.008%
12. Nirvana 2.4 0.005% 1.456% 98.539% 22.473% 60.304% 15.323% 0.431% 0.008%
13. chess22k 1.13 0.005% 99.995% 0.899% 15.817% 70.748% 11.514% 1.017%
14. Pirarucu 3.0.7 100.000% 0.386% 9.335% 58.684% 31.321% 0.274%
15. Marvin 3.4.0 100.000% 0.151% 3.106% 29.097% 61.639% 6.007%
16. Topple 0.7.2_dev 100.000% 0.266% 6.015% 93.719%

Speculate Nemorino 5.17 – Vajolet2 2.7 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-16. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Stoofvlees II a11 97.238% 2.762% 100.000%
2. ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 2.762% 95.192% 1.513% 0.475% 99.942% 0.058%
3. Pedone 230719 0.612% 29.491% 23.383% 53.486% 20.118% 16.772% 7.861% 1.616% 0.147%
4. Fritz 16.10 0.214% 28.431% 29.574% 58.219% 23.202% 15.252% 2.831% 0.494% 0.002%
5. Nemorino 5.17 0.212% 29.329% 22.769% 52.310% 22.170% 16.642% 7.786% 1.073% 0.019%
6. Arasan TCEC16 1.008% 10.813% 21.578% 33.399% 27.584% 31.877% 6.613% 0.527%
7. Texel 1.08a13 0.423% 2.204% 2.627% 6.455% 16.364% 53.954% 18.565% 2.026% 0.009%
8. Vajolet2 2.7 0.017% 0.017% 0.413% 3.009% 19.777% 62.982% 11.980% 1.822%
9. Gull 3 0.081% 0.998% 6.376% 57.165% 30.582% 4.798% 4.699% 0.098% 0.001%
10. RubiChess 1.5 0.003% 0.180% 8.367% 27.756% 54.753% 8.941% 8.778% 0.163%
11. Wasp 3.69 0.895% 11.266% 87.839% 63.012% 23.179% 1.641% 0.007%
12. Nirvana 2.4 0.010% 1.562% 98.428% 22.538% 59.768% 15.663% 0.446% 0.013%
13. chess22k 1.13 0.006% 99.994% 0.973% 16.254% 70.570% 11.176% 1.021%
14. Pirarucu 3.0.7 100.000% 0.393% 8.999% 58.916% 31.410% 0.282%
15. Marvin 3.4.0 100.000% 0.145% 3.126% 29.160% 61.633% 5.936%
16. Topple 0.7.2_dev 100.000% 0.295% 5.923% 93.782%

Speculate Nemorino 5.17 – Vajolet2 2.7 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-16. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Stoofvlees II a11 97.317% 2.683% 100.000%
2. ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 2.683% 95.259% 1.538% 0.482% 99.962% 0.038%
3. Fritz 16.10 0.243% 36.731% 27.555% 64.529% 20.298% 11.149% 3.142% 0.876% 0.006%
4. Pedone 230719 0.686% 32.410% 27.379% 60.475% 17.295% 12.507% 6.672% 2.857% 0.194%
5. Arasan TCEC16 1.129% 14.913% 23.270% 39.312% 28.897% 23.278% 7.032% 1.481%
6. Nemorino 5.17 13.617% 16.988% 30.605% 20.888% 20.167% 17.845% 10.276% 0.219%
7. Texel 1.08a13 0.596% 2.870% 3.466% 7.631% 18.415% 33.747% 34.306% 2.427% 0.008%
8. Vajolet2 2.7 0.195% 1.456% 1.651% 4.953% 14.383% 30.785% 42.411% 5.438% 0.379%
9. Gull 3 0.100% 0.630% 3.776% 60.593% 30.150% 4.751% 4.670% 0.081%
10. RubiChess 1.5 0.001% 0.147% 4.017% 30.269% 56.301% 9.265% 9.086% 0.179%
11. Wasp 3.69 0.844% 11.583% 87.573% 62.689% 23.235% 1.637% 0.012%
12. Nirvana 2.4 0.010% 1.570% 98.420% 22.525% 59.387% 16.012% 0.490% 0.006%
13. chess22k 1.13 0.009% 99.991% 1.030% 16.545% 70.456% 10.941% 1.019%
14. Pirarucu 3.0.7 100.000% 0.407% 8.758% 58.869% 31.699% 0.267%
15. Marvin 3.4.0 100.000% 0.166% 3.137% 29.453% 61.229% 6.015%
16. Topple 0.7.2_dev 100.000% 0.235% 6.047% 93.718%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.06h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2019-08-07 21:20 216 Pedone 230719 Gull 3
2019-08-07 22:24 217 chess22k 1.13 Pedone 230719
2019-08-07 23:28 218 Gull 3 Nemorino 5.17
2019-08-08 00:32 219 Vajolet2 2.7 RubiChess 1.5
2019-08-08 01:35 220 Texel 1.08a13 Pirarucu 3.0.7
2019-08-08 02:39 221 Arasan TCEC16 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-08-08 03:43 222 Nirvana 2.4 Stoofvlees II a11
2019-08-08 04:47 223 Fritz 16.10 Marvin 3.4.0
2019-08-08 05:51 224 Topple 0.7.2_dev Wasp 3.69
2019-08-08 06:54 225 Topple 0.7.2_dev chess22k 1.13
2019-08-08 07:58 226 Wasp 3.69 Fritz 16.10
2019-08-08 09:02 227 Marvin 3.4.0 Nirvana 2.4
2019-08-08 10:06 228 Stoofvlees II a11 Arasan TCEC16
2019-08-08 11:10 229 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 Texel 1.08a13
2019-08-08 12:13 230 Pirarucu 3.0.7 Vajolet2 2.7
2019-08-08 13:17 231 RubiChess 1.5 Gull 3
2019-08-08 14:21 232 Nemorino 5.17 Pedone 230719
2019-08-08 15:25 233 chess22k 1.13 Nemorino 5.17
2019-08-08 16:29 234 Pedone 230719 RubiChess 1.5
2019-08-08 17:32 235 Gull 3 Pirarucu 3.0.7
2019-08-08 18:36 236 Vajolet2 2.7 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-08-08 19:40 237 Texel 1.08a13 Stoofvlees II a11
2019-08-08 20:44 238 Arasan TCEC16 Marvin 3.4.0
2019-08-08 21:48 239 Nirvana 2.4 Wasp 3.69
2019-08-08 22:51 240 Fritz 16.10 Topple 0.7.2_dev