For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 Stoofvlees II a10/II a11 21.5 22.13 0.41 1.00 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 20.0 20.60 0.42 2.00 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 Pedone 230719 18.0 18.62 0.42 3.39 0 0 73 15 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 Arasan TCEC16 17.5 18.24 0.38 4.30 0 0 15 44 37 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 Fritz 16.10 17.5 18.21 0.39 4.40 0 0 12 40 43 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 Nemorino 5.17 17.5 17.50 0.00 6.33 0 0 0 0 0 67 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 Texel 1.08a13 17.0 17.37 0.41 6.58 0 0 0 1 8 24 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 Vajolet2 2.7 15.0 15.40 0.42 8.15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 85 15 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 RubiChess 1.5 14.5 14.88 0.42 9.24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 47 39 0 0 0 0 0
10 Gull 3 14.0 14.69 0.40 9.61 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 61 0 0 0 0 0
11 Wasp 3.68/3.69 12.5 12.96 0.43 11.40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 40 0 0 0
12 Nirvana 2.4 12.0 12.54 0.43 11.60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 60 0 0 0
13 chess22k 1.12/1.13 11.0 11.00 0.00 13.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0
14 Pirarucu 3.0.7 9.5 9.81 0.40 14.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0
15 Marvin 3.4.0 8.5 8.76 0.38 15.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
16 Topple 0.7.2_dev 7.0 7.29 0.39 16.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-16. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Stoofvlees II a11 100.000% 100.000%
2. ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 100.000% 100.000%
3. Pedone 230719 61.589% 22.910% 84.499% 12.270% 3.231%
4. Arasan TCEC16 15.863% 44.379% 60.242% 24.897% 11.695% 3.166%
5. Fritz 16.10 22.137% 28.114% 50.251% 35.932% 9.325% 4.492%
6. Nemorino 5.17 1.487% 1.487% 15.142% 41.538% 41.833%
7. Texel 1.08a13 0.411% 3.110% 3.521% 11.759% 34.211% 50.509%
8. Vajolet2 2.7 77.059% 22.941%
9. RubiChess 1.5 22.941% 29.210% 47.849%
10. Gull 3 47.849% 52.151%
11. Wasp 3.69 100.000% 59.941% 40.059%
12. Nirvana 2.4 100.000% 40.059% 59.941%
13. chess22k 1.13 100.000% 100.000%
14. Pirarucu 3.0.7 100.000% 100.000%
15. Marvin 3.4.0 100.000% 100.000%
16. Topple 0.7.2_dev 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Pedone 230719 – RubiChess 1.5 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-16. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Stoofvlees II a11 100.000% 100.000%
2. ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 100.000% 100.000%
3. Pedone 230719 100.000% 100.000%
4. Arasan TCEC16 70.772% 70.772% 15.537% 10.536% 3.155%
5. Fritz 16.10 27.009% 27.009% 59.260% 9.149% 4.582%
6. Nemorino 5.17 1.489% 1.489% 14.944% 41.626% 41.941%
7. Texel 1.08a13 0.730% 0.730% 10.259% 38.689% 50.322%
8. Vajolet2 2.7 100.000%
9. Gull 3 80.315% 19.685%
10. RubiChess 1.5 19.685% 80.315%
11. Wasp 3.69 100.000% 59.883% 40.117%
12. Nirvana 2.4 100.000% 40.117% 59.883%
13. chess22k 1.13 100.000% 100.000%
14. Pirarucu 3.0.7 100.000% 100.000%
15. Marvin 3.4.0 100.000% 100.000%
16. Topple 0.7.2_dev 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Pedone 230719 – RubiChess 1.5 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-16. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Stoofvlees II a11 100.000% 100.000%
2. ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 100.000% 100.000%
3. Fritz 16.10 59.345% 5.477% 64.822% 21.372% 9.223% 4.583%
4. Pedone 230719 40.655% 59.345% 100.000%
5. Arasan TCEC16 32.930% 32.930% 53.157% 10.718% 3.195%
6. Nemorino 5.17 1.480% 1.480% 15.235% 41.423% 41.862%
7. Texel 1.08a13 0.768% 0.768% 10.236% 38.636% 50.360%
8. Vajolet2 2.7 79.959% 20.041%
9. RubiChess 1.5 20.041% 49.123% 30.836%
10. Gull 3 30.836% 69.164%
11. Wasp 3.69 100.000% 59.773% 40.227%
12. Nirvana 2.4 100.000% 40.227% 59.773%
13. chess22k 1.13 100.000% 100.000%
14. Pirarucu 3.0.7 100.000% 100.000%
15. Marvin 3.4.0 100.000% 100.000%
16. Topple 0.7.2_dev 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Pedone 230719 – RubiChess 1.5 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-16. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Stoofvlees II a11 100.000% 100.000%
2. ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 100.000% 100.000%
3. Arasan TCEC16 63.515% 2.858% 66.373% 15.596% 14.840% 3.191%
4. Fritz 16.10 29.724% 52.586% 82.310% 3.792% 9.358% 4.540%
5. Pedone 230719 5.076% 32.898% 37.974% 49.286% 12.740%
6. Nemorino 5.17 1.531% 1.531% 15.268% 41.513% 41.688%
7. Texel 1.08a13 1.685% 10.127% 11.812% 16.058% 21.549% 50.581%
8. RubiChess 1.5 72.026% 27.974%
9. Vajolet2 2.7 27.974% 72.026%
10. Gull 3 100.000%
11. Wasp 3.69 100.000% 59.696% 40.304%
12. Nirvana 2.4 100.000% 40.304% 59.696%
13. chess22k 1.13 100.000% 100.000%
14. Pirarucu 3.0.7 100.000% 100.000%
15. Marvin 3.4.0 100.000% 100.000%
16. Topple 0.7.2_dev 100.000% 100.000%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.06h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2019-08-08 17:23 235 Gull 3 Pirarucu 3.0.7
2019-08-08 18:26 236 Vajolet2 2.7 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-08-08 19:30 237 Texel 1.08a13 Stoofvlees II a11
2019-08-08 20:34 238 Arasan TCEC16 Marvin 3.4.0
2019-08-08 21:38 239 Nirvana 2.4 Wasp 3.69
2019-08-08 22:41 240 Fritz 16.10 Topple 0.7.2_dev