For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 Stoofvlees II a10/II a11 22.5 22.50 0.00 1.00 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 20.5 20.50 0.00 2.00 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 Pedone 230719 19.0 19.00 0.00 3.00 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 Arasan TCEC16 17.5 18.23 0.38 4.46 0 0 0 54 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 Fritz 16.10 17.5 18.21 0.39 4.54 0 0 0 46 54 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 Nemorino 5.17 17.5 17.50 0.00 6.00 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 Texel 1.08a13 17.0 17.00 0.00 7.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 Vajolet2 2.7 15.5 15.50 0.00 8.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 Gull 3 15.0 15.00 0.00 9.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 RubiChess 1.5 14.5 14.50 0.00 10.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0
11 Wasp 3.68/3.69 12.5 12.96 0.43 11.40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 40 0 0 0
12 Nirvana 2.4 12.0 12.54 0.43 11.60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 60 0 0 0
13 chess22k 1.12/1.13 11.0 11.00 0.00 13.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0
14 Pirarucu 3.0.7 9.5 9.50 0.00 14.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0
15 Marvin 3.4.0 8.5 8.77 0.38 15.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
16 Topple 0.7.2_dev 7.0 7.29 0.39 16.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-16. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Stoofvlees II a11 100.000% 100.000%
2. ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 100.000% 100.000%
3. Pedone 230719 100.000% 100.000%
4. Arasan TCEC16 71.657% 71.657% 15.215% 13.128%
5. Fritz 16.10 25.453% 25.453% 56.448% 18.099%
6. Nemorino 5.17 2.890% 2.890% 28.337% 68.773%
7. Texel 1.08a13 100.000%
8. Vajolet2 2.7 100.000%
9. Gull 3 100.000%
10. RubiChess 1.5 100.000%
11. Wasp 3.69 100.000% 59.503% 40.497%
12. Nirvana 2.4 100.000% 40.497% 59.503%
13. chess22k 1.13 100.000% 100.000%
14. Pirarucu 3.0.7 100.000% 100.000%
15. Marvin 3.4.0 100.000% 100.000%
16. Topple 0.7.2_dev 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Arasan TCEC16 – Marvin 3.4.0 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-16. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Stoofvlees II a11 100.000% 100.000%
2. ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 100.000% 100.000%
3. Pedone 230719 100.000% 100.000%
4. Arasan TCEC16 100.000% 100.000%
5. Fritz 16.10 81.766% 18.234%
6. Nemorino 5.17 18.234% 81.766%
7. Texel 1.08a13 100.000%
8. Vajolet2 2.7 100.000%
9. Gull 3 100.000%
10. RubiChess 1.5 100.000%
11. Wasp 3.69 100.000% 59.658% 40.342%
12. Nirvana 2.4 100.000% 40.342% 59.658%
13. chess22k 1.13 100.000% 100.000%
14. Pirarucu 3.0.7 100.000% 100.000%
15. Marvin 3.4.0 100.000% 100.000%
16. Topple 0.7.2_dev 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Arasan TCEC16 – Marvin 3.4.0 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-16. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Stoofvlees II a11 100.000% 100.000%
2. ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 100.000% 100.000%
3. Pedone 230719 100.000% 100.000%
4. Fritz 16.10 59.407% 59.407% 22.210% 18.383%
5. Arasan TCEC16 40.593% 40.593% 59.407%
6. Nemorino 5.17 18.383% 81.617%
7. Texel 1.08a13 100.000%
8. Vajolet2 2.7 100.000%
9. Gull 3 100.000%
10. RubiChess 1.5 100.000%
11. Wasp 3.69 100.000% 59.593% 40.407%
12. Nirvana 2.4 100.000% 40.407% 59.593%
13. chess22k 1.13 100.000% 100.000%
14. Pirarucu 3.0.7 100.000% 100.000%
15. Marvin 3.4.0 100.000% 100.000%
16. Topple 0.7.2_dev 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Arasan TCEC16 – Marvin 3.4.0 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-16. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Stoofvlees II a11 100.000% 100.000%
2. ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8 100.000% 100.000%
3. Pedone 230719 100.000% 100.000%
4. Fritz 16.10 81.423% 81.423% 18.577%
5. Nemorino 5.17 18.577% 18.577% 81.423%
6. Arasan TCEC16 18.577% 81.423%
7. Texel 1.08a13 100.000%
8. Vajolet2 2.7 100.000%
9. Gull 3 100.000%
10. RubiChess 1.5 100.000%
11. Wasp 3.69 100.000% 59.794% 40.206%
12. Nirvana 2.4 100.000% 40.206% 59.794%
13. chess22k 1.13 100.000% 100.000%
14. Pirarucu 3.0.7 100.000% 100.000%
15. Marvin 3.4.0 100.000% 100.000%
16. Topple 0.7.2_dev 100.000% 100.000%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.06h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2019-08-08 21:39 239 Nirvana 2.4 Wasp 3.69
2019-08-08 22:43 240 Fritz 16.10 Topple 0.7.2_dev