Aug 24 2019
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1 Stoofvlees II a10/II a11/II a12 16.0 18.57 0.80 1.12 91 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Laser 230319 15.0 16.74 0.73 3.36 2 30 30 20 12 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 Ethereal 11.50/11.57 14.5 16.68 0.86 3.55 5 27 22 19 15 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8/v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8 14.0 16.52 0.83 3.86 1 23 22 20 17 9 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 Chiron TCEC16 14.0 16.22 0.87 4.63 1 12 17 21 19 14 10 5 1 0 0 0 0 0
6 Xiphos 0.5.3 14.0 15.52 0.75 6.23 0 1 4 9 16 26 27 14 4 1 0 0 0 0
7 Andscacs 0.95123 14.0 15.49 0.74 6.28 0 1 4 9 15 23 24 16 6 1 0 0 0 0
8 Ginkgo S16 12.5 14.55 0.88 8.15 0 0 0 1 4 8 14 28 29 10 3 1 0 0
9 Fizbo 2 12.5 14.40 0.85 8.50 0 0 0 1 2 6 11 27 32 14 5 2 0 0
10 ChessBrainVB 3.74 11.5 13.33 0.88 10.23 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 16 34 25 13 3 0
11 rofChade 2.105 11.0 12.96 0.86 10.90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 26 34 23 7 0
12 Jonny 8.1 10.5 12.35 0.85 11.82 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 10 20 35 31 0
13 Arasan TCEC16 10.0 11.89 0.86 12.38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 12 26 57 1
14 Pedone 230719 7.5 9.00 0.83 13.99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 99
15 Fire NNb/v_NNb-n07-20-2019 5.0 5.78 0.66 15.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-15. 13. 14. 15.
1. Stoofvlees II a12 91.555% 6.209% 1.590% 0.468% 99.822% 0.135% 0.039% 0.004%
2. Ethereal 11.57 4.951% 33.374% 19.706% 15.447% 73.478% 12.156% 7.921% 4.755% 1.431% 0.235% 0.023% 0.001%
3. ScorpioNN v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8 1.361% 23.707% 21.372% 19.920% 66.360% 17.004% 9.931% 4.903% 1.511% 0.269% 0.020% 0.002%
4. Laser 230319 1.367% 19.500% 25.370% 21.734% 67.971% 15.995% 9.468% 4.657% 1.632% 0.263% 0.014%
5. Chiron TCEC16 0.720% 13.537% 19.837% 19.979% 54.073% 17.002% 12.199% 8.711% 5.652% 1.943% 0.378% 0.038% 0.004%
6. Xiphos 0.5.3 0.011% 1.332% 5.062% 9.906% 16.311% 16.598% 24.601% 22.348% 13.012% 5.279% 1.572% 0.276% 0.003%
7. Andscacs 0.95123 0.035% 2.225% 6.000% 9.278% 17.538% 13.446% 18.551% 23.138% 16.889% 7.888% 2.245% 0.295% 0.010%
8. Fizbo 2 0.076% 0.640% 1.828% 2.544% 3.924% 8.316% 14.216% 24.739% 23.972% 13.182% 6.236% 2.471% 0.400% 0.400%
9. Ginkgo S16 0.040% 0.410% 1.310% 1.760% 3.105% 6.788% 12.326% 22.906% 28.220% 14.518% 6.984% 2.937% 0.456% 0.456%
10. ChessBrainVB 3.74 0.013% 0.126% 0.139% 0.601% 1.944% 3.878% 7.947% 16.481% 29.673% 23.065% 13.069% 3.203% 3.199% 0.004%
11. rofChade 2.105 0.004% 0.004% 0.034% 0.230% 0.837% 2.439% 8.379% 19.958% 28.442% 26.355% 13.322% 13.285% 0.037%
12. Jonny 8.1 0.011% 0.217% 1.698% 5.798% 13.072% 20.625% 27.300% 31.279% 30.956% 0.323%
13. Arasan TCEC16 0.001% 0.010% 0.144% 1.273% 5.345% 14.034% 27.761% 51.432% 49.410% 2.022%
14. Pedone 230719 0.002% 0.090% 99.908% 2.294% 97.442% 0.172%
15. Fire v_NNb-n07-20-2019 100.000% 0.172% 99.828%

Speculate ScorpioNN v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8 – Arasan TCEC16 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-15. 13. 14. 15.
1. Stoofvlees II a12 90.684% 6.659% 1.852% 0.563% 99.758% 0.196% 0.043% 0.003%
2. ScorpioNN v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8 2.482% 34.397% 24.755% 19.079% 80.713% 12.831% 4.811% 1.475% 0.163% 0.007%
3. Ethereal 11.57 4.986% 29.780% 19.488% 16.635% 70.889% 13.655% 8.649% 5.159% 1.364% 0.262% 0.021% 0.001%
4. Laser 230319 1.136% 15.669% 25.064% 22.759% 64.628% 17.884% 10.555% 5.078% 1.573% 0.261% 0.021%
5. Chiron TCEC16 0.670% 11.179% 18.570% 19.933% 50.352% 19.122% 13.137% 9.181% 5.890% 1.965% 0.323% 0.027% 0.003%
6. Xiphos 0.5.3 0.012% 0.904% 4.206% 9.010% 14.132% 16.024% 26.270% 23.136% 13.329% 5.226% 1.578% 0.303% 0.002%
7. Andscacs 0.95123 0.030% 1.353% 5.282% 9.239% 15.904% 13.187% 19.238% 24.056% 17.089% 7.916% 2.286% 0.323% 0.001%
8. Fizbo 2 0.048% 0.471% 1.561% 2.080% 3.724% 8.247% 14.663% 25.178% 24.139% 13.356% 6.232% 2.228% 0.153% 0.153%
9. Ginkgo S16 0.011% 0.303% 1.109% 1.423% 2.801% 6.898% 12.366% 23.252% 28.504% 14.742% 7.106% 2.743% 0.165% 0.165%
10. ChessBrainVB 3.74 0.009% 0.111% 0.120% 0.543% 1.909% 3.855% 7.947% 16.749% 30.908% 23.532% 12.778% 1.659% 1.657% 0.002%
11. rofChade 2.105 0.001% 0.001% 0.033% 0.220% 0.819% 2.400% 8.782% 21.151% 30.769% 26.659% 9.166% 9.128% 0.038%
12. Jonny 8.1 0.023% 0.209% 1.815% 6.101% 13.898% 22.657% 29.696% 25.601% 25.263% 0.338%
13. Arasan TCEC16 0.088% 1.716% 9.049% 25.739% 63.408% 59.975% 3.433%
14. Pedone 230719 0.001% 0.151% 99.848% 3.659% 95.998% 0.191%
15. Fire v_NNb-n07-20-2019 100.000% 0.191% 99.809%

Speculate ScorpioNN v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8 – Arasan TCEC16 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-15. 13. 14. 15.
1. Stoofvlees II a12 92.127% 5.739% 1.488% 0.454% 99.808% 0.153% 0.033% 0.005% 0.001%
2. Ethereal 11.57 5.167% 35.221% 19.718% 14.292% 74.398% 11.427% 7.881% 4.699% 1.343% 0.225% 0.026% 0.001%
3. Laser 230319 1.443% 21.660% 25.214% 20.809% 69.126% 15.187% 9.222% 4.635% 1.554% 0.261% 0.015%
4. ScorpioNN v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8 0.466% 17.602% 20.763% 21.535% 60.366% 20.147% 12.355% 5.536% 1.464% 0.132%
5. Chiron TCEC16 0.728% 15.296% 20.123% 19.689% 55.836% 15.571% 11.639% 8.786% 5.801% 1.988% 0.350% 0.026% 0.003%
6. Xiphos 0.5.3 0.021% 1.882% 5.497% 10.279% 17.679% 16.405% 23.775% 22.133% 12.880% 5.218% 1.577% 0.329% 0.004%
7. Andscacs 0.95123 0.047% 2.449% 6.087% 9.470% 18.053% 13.369% 18.035% 23.159% 16.988% 7.796% 2.307% 0.288% 0.005%
8. Fizbo 2 0.001% 0.107% 0.658% 1.945% 2.711% 4.011% 8.112% 14.165% 24.584% 24.055% 13.275% 6.286% 2.388% 0.413% 0.413%
9. Ginkgo S16 0.043% 0.436% 1.396% 1.875% 3.073% 6.816% 12.185% 23.174% 28.370% 14.363% 6.775% 2.886% 0.483% 0.483%
10. ChessBrainVB 3.74 0.001% 0.016% 0.130% 0.147% 0.610% 1.901% 3.689% 8.005% 16.696% 29.625% 22.981% 12.816% 3.530% 3.528% 0.002%
11. rofChade 2.105 0.001% 0.001% 0.047% 0.223% 0.792% 2.413% 8.698% 19.842% 27.112% 25.718% 15.154% 15.106% 0.048%
12. Jonny 8.1 0.008% 0.216% 1.765% 5.648% 12.894% 20.062% 26.348% 33.059% 32.704% 0.355%
13. Arasan TCEC16 0.028% 0.913% 5.726% 16.137% 29.769% 47.427% 46.241% 1.186%
14. Pedone 230719 0.003% 0.063% 99.934% 1.525% 98.226% 0.183%
15. Fire v_NNb-n07-20-2019 100.000% 0.183% 99.817%

Speculate ScorpioNN v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8 – Arasan TCEC16 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-15. 13. 14. 15.
1. Stoofvlees II a12 92.572% 5.694% 1.296% 0.328% 99.890% 0.086% 0.019% 0.004% 0.001%
2. Ethereal 11.57 5.077% 37.697% 21.183% 13.600% 77.557% 9.644% 6.845% 4.376% 1.367% 0.190% 0.021%
3. Laser 230319 1.545% 26.041% 26.415% 20.288% 74.289% 12.481% 7.600% 3.964% 1.413% 0.245% 0.006% 0.002%
4. Chiron TCEC16 0.686% 16.722% 21.806% 20.206% 59.420% 14.171% 10.475% 7.972% 5.488% 1.970% 0.427% 0.075% 0.002%
5. ScorpioNN v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8 0.051% 8.057% 14.333% 19.352% 41.793% 23.130% 17.861% 11.607% 4.530% 0.964% 0.113% 0.002%
6. Xiphos 0.5.3 0.015% 2.004% 6.330% 11.832% 20.181% 17.663% 22.215% 20.485% 12.379% 5.182% 1.578% 0.298% 0.019%
7. Andscacs 0.95123 0.054% 3.521% 7.156% 10.049% 20.780% 13.867% 17.764% 21.424% 16.042% 7.443% 2.296% 0.373% 0.011%
8. Fizbo 2 0.171% 0.874% 2.418% 3.463% 4.500% 8.135% 13.527% 23.936% 22.998% 12.818% 6.729% 3.092% 0.802% 0.802%
9. Ginkgo S16 0.092% 0.586% 1.743% 2.421% 3.664% 7.007% 11.929% 22.240% 26.634% 14.203% 7.443% 3.534% 0.925% 0.925%
10. ChessBrainVB 3.74 0.001% 0.021% 0.183% 0.205% 0.742% 1.818% 3.709% 7.852% 16.455% 27.130% 21.809% 14.259% 6.021% 6.016% 0.005%
11. rofChade 2.105 0.001% 0.001% 0.050% 0.246% 0.750% 2.363% 8.200% 17.386% 23.724% 26.546% 20.734% 20.686% 0.048%
12. Arasan TCEC16 0.001% 0.032% 0.639% 4.128% 12.470% 22.388% 29.312% 31.030% 30.739% 0.291%
13. Jonny 8.1 0.002% 0.014% 0.221% 1.750% 5.591% 11.552% 17.157% 23.192% 40.521% 40.141% 0.380%
14. Pedone 230719 0.033% 99.967% 0.691% 99.093% 0.183%
15. Fire v_NNb-n07-20-2019 100.000% 0.183% 99.817%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.50h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2019-08-24 18:51 210 Stoofvlees II a12 Pedone 230719
2019-08-24 20:21 211 rofChade 2.105 Ethereal 11.57
2019-08-24 21:51 212 Booot 6.3.1 Fire v_NNb-n07-20-2019
2019-08-24 23:22 213 ChessBrainVB 3.74 Xiphos 0.5.3
2019-08-25 00:52 214 Ginkgo S16 Laser 230319
2019-08-25 02:22 215 Chiron TCEC16 Andscacs 0.95123
2019-08-25 03:52 216 Jonny 8.1 Fizbo 2
2019-08-25 05:22 217 Arasan TCEC16 Jonny 8.1
2019-08-25 06:52 218 Fizbo 2 Chiron TCEC16
2019-08-25 08:22 219 Andscacs 0.95123 Ginkgo S16
2019-08-25 09:52 220 Laser 230319 ChessBrainVB 3.74
2019-08-25 11:22 221 Xiphos 0.5.3 Booot 6.3.1
2019-08-25 12:52 222 Fire v_NNb-n07-20-2019 rofChade 2.105
2019-08-25 14:23 223 Ethereal 11.57 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-08-25 15:53 224 Pedone 230719 ScorpioNN v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8
2019-08-25 17:23 225 Pedone 230719 Arasan TCEC16
2019-08-25 18:53 226 ScorpioNN v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8 Ethereal 11.57
2019-08-25 20:23 227 Stoofvlees II a12 Fire v_NNb-n07-20-2019
2019-08-25 21:53 228 rofChade 2.105 Xiphos 0.5.3
2019-08-25 23:23 229 Booot 6.3.1 Laser 230319
2019-08-26 00:53 230 ChessBrainVB 3.74 Andscacs 0.95123
2019-08-26 02:23 231 Ginkgo S16 Fizbo 2
2019-08-26 03:54 232 Chiron TCEC16 Jonny 8.1
2019-08-26 05:24 233 Arasan TCEC16 Chiron TCEC16
2019-08-26 06:54 234 Jonny 8.1 Ginkgo S16
2019-08-26 08:24 235 Fizbo 2 ChessBrainVB 3.74
2019-08-26 09:54 236 Andscacs 0.95123 Booot 6.3.1
2019-08-26 11:24 237 Laser 230319 rofChade 2.105
2019-08-26 12:54 238 Xiphos 0.5.3 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-08-26 14:24 239 Fire v_NNb-n07-20-2019 ScorpioNN v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8
2019-08-26 15:54 240 Ethereal 11.57 Pedone 230719
Posted inBayesElo