Aug 26 2019
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1 Stoofvlees II a10/II a11/II a12 18.5 19.03 0.43 1.00 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8/v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8 16.0 16.76 0.37 2.76 0 47 31 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 Ethereal 11.50/11.57 16.0 16.68 0.40 3.03 0 31 35 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 Laser 230319 16.0 16.62 0.41 3.21 0 23 34 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 Chiron TCEC16 15.0 15.51 0.43 5.93 0 0 0 0 41 25 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 Andscacs 0.95123 15.5 15.50 0.00 5.97 0 0 0 0 26 50 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 Xiphos 0.5.3 15.0 15.47 0.43 6.09 0 0 0 0 33 25 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 Fizbo 2 14.0 14.53 0.43 8.48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 48 0 0 0 0 0
9 Ginkgo S16 14.0 14.51 0.43 8.52 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 52 0 0 0 0 0
10 ChessBrainVB 3.74 13.0 13.47 0.43 10.59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 53 34 12 0 0
11 rofChade 2.105 13.0 13.38 0.42 10.82 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 44 19 0 0
12 Jonny 8.1 12.5 12.99 0.43 11.59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 22 69 0 0
13 Arasan TCEC16 11.0 11.49 0.43 13.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0
14 Pedone 230719 8.5 8.82 0.40 14.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
15 Fire NNb/v_NNb-n07-20-2019 5.0 5.24 0.37 15.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-15. 13. 14. 15.
1. Stoofvlees II a12 100.000% 100.000%
2. Ethereal 11.57 60.925% 18.319% 20.756% 100.000%
3. ScorpioNN v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8 30.924% 50.321% 17.293% 98.538% 1.164% 0.298%
4. Laser 230319 8.151% 30.917% 46.265% 85.333% 11.427% 3.240%
5. Chiron TCEC16 0.293% 10.091% 10.384% 45.498% 17.339% 12.656% 14.123%
6. Andscacs 0.95123 14.181% 47.273% 38.546%
7. Xiphos 0.5.3 0.150% 5.595% 5.745% 27.730% 26.245% 29.933% 10.347%
8. Fizbo 2 5.605% 18.865% 44.075% 31.455%
9. Ginkgo S16 31.455% 50.576% 14.963% 3.006%
10. ChessBrainVB 3.74 11.803% 41.774% 31.328% 15.095%
11. rofChade 2.105 6.166% 20.202% 37.319% 36.313%
12. Jonny 8.1 23.061% 28.347% 48.592%
13. Arasan TCEC16 100.000% 100.000%
14. Pedone 230719 100.000% 100.000%
15. Fire v_NNb-n07-20-2019 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Arasan TCEC16 – Chiron TCEC16 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-15. 13. 14. 15.
1. Stoofvlees II a12 100.000% 100.000%
2. Ethereal 11.57 60.841% 18.380% 20.779% 100.000%
3. ScorpioNN v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8 30.857% 50.162% 18.194% 99.213% 0.787%
4. Laser 230319 8.302% 31.208% 52.155% 91.665% 8.335%
5. Xiphos 0.5.3 0.250% 8.872% 9.122% 50.683% 40.195%
6. Andscacs 0.95123 40.195% 59.805%
7. Chiron TCEC16 23.950% 35.764% 40.286%
8. Fizbo 2 16.245% 24.041% 28.397% 31.317%
9. Ginkgo S16 31.317% 50.754% 14.931% 2.998%
10. ChessBrainVB 3.74 11.898% 41.410% 31.600% 15.092%
11. rofChade 2.105 6.031% 20.391% 37.115% 36.463%
12. Jonny 8.1 23.268% 28.287% 48.445%
13. Arasan TCEC16 100.000% 100.000%
14. Pedone 230719 100.000% 100.000%
15. Fire v_NNb-n07-20-2019 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Arasan TCEC16 – Chiron TCEC16 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-15. 13. 14. 15.
1. Stoofvlees II a12 100.000% 100.000%
2. Ethereal 11.57 60.978% 18.187% 20.835% 100.000%
3. ScorpioNN v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8 30.945% 50.136% 18.171% 99.252% 0.748%
4. Laser 230319 8.077% 31.426% 52.058% 91.561% 8.439%
5. Chiron TCEC16 66.678% 33.322%
6. Xiphos 0.5.3 0.251% 8.936% 9.187% 24.135% 26.588% 24.086% 16.004%
7. Andscacs 0.95123 40.090% 59.910%
8. Fizbo 2 16.004% 52.489% 31.507%
9. Ginkgo S16 31.507% 50.752% 14.698% 3.043%
10. ChessBrainVB 3.74 11.732% 41.736% 31.524% 15.008%
11. rofChade 2.105 6.009% 20.313% 37.187% 36.491%
12. Jonny 8.1 23.253% 28.246% 48.501%
13. Arasan TCEC16 100.000% 100.000%
14. Pedone 230719 100.000% 100.000%
15. Fire v_NNb-n07-20-2019 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Arasan TCEC16 – Chiron TCEC16 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-15. 13. 14. 15.
1. Stoofvlees II a12 100.000% 100.000%
2. Ethereal 11.57 61.097% 18.281% 20.622% 100.000%
3. ScorpioNN v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8 30.791% 49.791% 16.897% 97.479% 1.751% 0.770%
4. Laser 230319 8.112% 31.190% 35.550% 74.852% 16.748% 8.400%
5. Chiron TCEC16 0.738% 26.669% 27.407% 72.593%
6. Xiphos 0.5.3 0.262% 0.262% 8.908% 51.117% 23.857% 15.856%
7. Andscacs 0.95123 39.713% 60.287%
8. Fizbo 2 15.856% 53.111% 31.033%
9. Ginkgo S16 31.033% 50.741% 15.185% 3.041%
10. ChessBrainVB 3.74 12.210% 41.224% 31.413% 15.153%
11. rofChade 2.105 6.016% 20.285% 37.029% 36.670%
12. Jonny 8.1 23.306% 28.517% 48.177%
13. Arasan TCEC16 100.000% 100.000%
14. Pedone 230719 100.000% 100.000%
15. Fire v_NNb-n07-20-2019 100.000% 100.000%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.50h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2019-08-26 06:11 234 Jonny 8.1 Ginkgo S16
2019-08-26 07:41 235 Fizbo 2 ChessBrainVB 3.74
2019-08-26 09:11 236 Andscacs 0.95123 Booot 6.3.1
2019-08-26 10:40 237 Laser 230319 rofChade 2.105
2019-08-26 12:10 238 Xiphos 0.5.3 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-08-26 13:40 239 Fire v_NNb-n07-20-2019 ScorpioNN v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8
2019-08-26 15:10 240 Ethereal 11.57 Pedone 230719
Posted inBayesElo