Sep 02 2019
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Output from BayesElo program

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 1.0 8.61 1.86 2.83 30 22 17 12 9 6 3
2 Stockfish 190826 1.0 8.29 1.85 3.13 23 21 18 14 10 7 4
3 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 0.0 8.16 1.97 3.29 23 20 17 14 10 8 5
4 Komodo 2381.00 0.0 7.23 2.03 4.23 11 14 15 15 14 12 10
5 Houdini 6.03 0.0 6.72 1.61 4.78 4 9 14 18 19 17 13
6 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 0.0 6.71 2.05 4.78 8 10 13 14 15 15 14
7 Stoofvlees II a10/II a11/II a12 0.0 5.45 1.58 6.18 1 2 5 9 14 20 26
8 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8/v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8/v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 0.0 4.84 1.54 6.77 0 1 2 5 9 16 25

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 30.965% 23.579% 54.544% 17.351% 11.629% 7.579% 4.732% 4.165% 2.876% 1.289%
2. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 25.502% 22.095% 47.597% 17.529% 13.040% 9.044% 6.281% 6.509% 4.078% 2.431%
3. Stockfish 190826 22.907% 22.168% 45.075% 18.780% 13.964% 9.793% 6.488% 5.900% 3.833% 2.067%
4. Komodo 2381.00 11.622% 14.549% 26.171% 15.963% 15.469% 13.654% 11.645% 17.098% 9.284% 7.814%
5. Houdini 6.03 1.537% 5.741% 7.278% 13.184% 21.142% 24.416% 19.774% 14.206% 10.633% 3.573%
6. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 7.232% 10.567% 17.799% 12.868% 14.253% 14.144% 14.086% 26.850% 13.054% 13.796%
7. Stoofvlees II a12 0.201% 1.067% 1.268% 3.310% 7.615% 14.502% 22.758% 50.547% 28.944% 21.603%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 0.034% 0.234% 0.268% 1.015% 2.888% 6.868% 14.236% 74.725% 27.298% 47.427%

Speculate Komodo 2381.00 – KomodoMCTS 2381.00 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 30.525% 23.705% 54.230% 17.500% 11.959% 7.576% 4.730% 4.005% 2.722% 1.283%
2. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 24.924% 22.089% 47.013% 18.325% 13.266% 9.080% 6.156% 6.160% 3.871% 2.289%
3. Stockfish 190826 22.238% 22.063% 44.301% 18.901% 14.483% 9.929% 6.456% 5.930% 3.918% 2.012%
4. Komodo 2381.00 16.693% 18.297% 34.990% 18.066% 15.988% 11.966% 8.892% 10.098% 6.122% 3.976%
5. Houdini 6.03 1.426% 5.762% 7.188% 12.969% 21.288% 25.315% 19.461% 13.779% 10.290% 3.489%
6. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 3.929% 6.782% 10.711% 9.875% 12.581% 14.736% 16.262% 35.835% 16.416% 19.419%
7. Stoofvlees II a12 0.227% 1.071% 1.298% 3.352% 7.578% 14.534% 23.396% 49.842% 28.843% 20.999%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 0.038% 0.231% 0.269% 1.012% 2.857% 6.864% 14.647% 74.351% 27.818% 46.533%

Speculate Komodo 2381.00 – KomodoMCTS 2381.00 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 32.188% 23.636% 55.824% 16.571% 11.126% 7.430% 4.808% 4.241% 2.814% 1.427%
2. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 25.895% 22.145% 48.040% 17.440% 12.650% 8.992% 6.310% 6.568% 4.094% 2.474%
3. Stockfish 190826 23.318% 22.147% 45.465% 18.501% 13.801% 9.538% 6.532% 6.163% 4.059% 2.104%
4. Komodo 2381.00 9.529% 13.535% 23.064% 15.787% 16.158% 14.459% 12.444% 18.088% 10.080% 8.008%
5. Houdini 6.03 1.523% 6.016% 7.539% 13.401% 20.673% 24.054% 19.761% 14.572% 10.835% 3.737%
6. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 7.266% 11.134% 18.400% 13.852% 15.086% 14.964% 14.188% 23.510% 12.309% 11.201%
7. Stoofvlees II a12 0.241% 1.120% 1.361% 3.404% 7.578% 13.833% 22.259% 51.565% 29.279% 22.286%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 0.040% 0.267% 0.307% 1.044% 2.928% 6.730% 13.698% 75.293% 26.530% 48.763%

Speculate Komodo 2381.00 – KomodoMCTS 2381.00 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 31.243% 23.715% 54.958% 17.015% 11.352% 7.651% 4.849% 4.175% 2.785% 1.390%
2. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 25.809% 22.059% 47.868% 17.680% 12.710% 9.050% 6.265% 6.427% 4.031% 2.396%
3. Stockfish 190826 22.749% 22.246% 44.995% 18.685% 13.881% 9.713% 6.542% 6.184% 4.004% 2.180%
4. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 12.690% 15.407% 28.097% 16.672% 15.800% 13.438% 10.939% 15.054% 8.624% 6.430%
5. Houdini 6.03 1.530% 5.800% 7.330% 13.132% 21.121% 24.330% 19.816% 14.271% 10.610% 3.661%
6. Komodo 2381.00 5.740% 9.429% 15.169% 12.527% 14.541% 15.224% 14.970% 27.569% 13.981% 13.588%
7. Stoofvlees II a12 0.211% 1.105% 1.316% 3.300% 7.682% 13.963% 22.564% 51.175% 29.058% 22.117%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 0.028% 0.239% 0.267% 0.989% 2.913% 6.631% 14.055% 75.145% 26.907% 48.238%

Expected start time based on estimate of 3.76h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2019-09-03 02:19 4 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-03 06:05 5 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-03 09:50 6 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-03 13:36 7 Stoofvlees II a12 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-03 17:22 8 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-03 21:07 9 Stockfish 190826 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-04 00:53 10 Komodo 2381.00 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-04 04:38 11 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-04 08:24 12 Houdini 6.03 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-04 12:10 13 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-04 15:55 14 Stoofvlees II a12 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-04 19:41 15 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-04 23:27 16 Stockfish 190826 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-05 03:12 17 Komodo 2381.00 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-05 06:58 18 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-05 10:44 19 Houdini 6.03 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-05 14:29 20 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-05 18:15 21 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-05 22:00 22 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-06 01:46 23 Stockfish 190826 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-06 05:32 24 Komodo 2381.00 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-06 09:17 25 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-06 13:03 26 Houdini 6.03 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-06 16:49 27 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-06 20:34 28 Stoofvlees II a12 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-07 00:20 29 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-07 04:06 30 Stoofvlees II a12 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-07 07:51 31 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-07 11:37 32 Houdini 6.03 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-07 15:22 33 Houdini 6.03 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-07 19:08 34 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-07 22:54 35 Komodo 2381.00 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-08 02:39 36 Stockfish 190826 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-08 06:25 37 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-08 10:11 38 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-08 13:56 39 Stoofvlees II a12 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-08 17:42 40 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-08 21:28 41 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-09 01:13 42 Houdini 6.03 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-09 04:59 43 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-09 08:44 44 Komodo 2381.00 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-09 12:30 45 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-09 16:16 46 Stockfish 190826 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-09 20:01 47 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-09 23:47 48 Stoofvlees II a12 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-10 03:33 49 Stoofvlees II a12 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-10 07:18 50 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-10 11:04 51 Houdini 6.03 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-10 14:50 52 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-10 18:35 53 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-10 22:21 54 Komodo 2381.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-11 02:06 55 Stockfish 190826 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-11 05:52 56 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-11 09:38 57 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-11 13:23 58 Stockfish 190826 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-11 17:09 59 Komodo 2381.00 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-11 20:55 60 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-12 00:40 61 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-12 04:26 62 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-12 08:12 63 Stoofvlees II a12 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-12 11:57 64 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-12 15:43 65 Stockfish 190826 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-12 19:28 66 Komodo 2381.00 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-12 23:14 67 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-13 03:00 68 Houdini 6.03 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-13 06:45 69 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-13 10:31 70 Stoofvlees II a12 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-13 14:17 71 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-13 18:02 72 Stockfish 190826 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-13 21:48 73 Komodo 2381.00 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-14 01:34 74 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-14 05:19 75 Houdini 6.03 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-14 09:05 76 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-14 12:50 77 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-14 16:36 78 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-14 20:22 79 Stockfish 190826 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-15 00:07 80 Komodo 2381.00 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-15 03:53 81 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-15 07:39 82 Houdini 6.03 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-15 11:24 83 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-15 15:10 84 Stoofvlees II a12 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-15 18:56 85 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-15 22:41 86 Stoofvlees II a12 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-16 02:27 87 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-16 06:12 88 Houdini 6.03 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-16 09:58 89 Houdini 6.03 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-16 13:44 90 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-16 17:29 91 Komodo 2381.00 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-16 21:15 92 Stockfish 190826 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-17 01:01 93 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-17 04:46 94 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-17 08:32 95 Stoofvlees II a12 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-17 12:18 96 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-17 16:03 97 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-17 19:49 98 Houdini 6.03 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-17 23:34 99 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-18 03:20 100 Komodo 2381.00 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-18 07:06 101 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-18 10:51 102 Stockfish 190826 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-18 14:37 103 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-18 18:23 104 Stoofvlees II a12 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-18 22:08 105 Stoofvlees II a12 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-19 01:54 106 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-19 05:40 107 Houdini 6.03 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-19 09:25 108 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-19 13:11 109 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-19 16:56 110 Komodo 2381.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-19 20:42 111 Stockfish 190826 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-20 00:28 112 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-20 04:13 113 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-20 07:59 114 Stockfish 190826 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-20 11:45 115 Komodo 2381.00 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-20 15:30 116 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-20 19:16 117 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-20 23:02 118 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-21 02:47 119 Stoofvlees II a12 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-21 06:33 120 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-21 10:18 121 Stockfish 190826 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-21 14:04 122 Komodo 2381.00 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-21 17:50 123 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-21 21:35 124 Houdini 6.03 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-22 01:21 125 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-22 05:07 126 Stoofvlees II a12 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-22 08:52 127 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-22 12:38 128 Stockfish 190826 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-22 16:24 129 Komodo 2381.00 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-22 20:09 130 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-22 23:55 131 Houdini 6.03 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-23 03:40 132 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-23 07:26 133 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-23 11:12 134 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-23 14:57 135 Stockfish 190826 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-23 18:43 136 Komodo 2381.00 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-23 22:29 137 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-24 02:14 138 Houdini 6.03 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-24 06:00 139 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-24 09:46 140 Stoofvlees II a12 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-24 13:31 141 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-24 17:17 142 Stoofvlees II a12 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-24 21:02 143 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-25 00:48 144 Houdini 6.03 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-25 04:34 145 Houdini 6.03 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-25 08:19 146 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-25 12:05 147 Komodo 2381.00 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-25 15:51 148 Stockfish 190826 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-25 19:36 149 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-25 23:22 150 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-26 03:08 151 Stoofvlees II a12 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-26 06:53 152 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-26 10:39 153 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-26 14:24 154 Houdini 6.03 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-26 18:10 155 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-26 21:56 156 Komodo 2381.00 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-27 01:41 157 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-27 05:27 158 Stockfish 190826 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-27 09:13 159 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-27 12:58 160 Stoofvlees II a12 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-27 16:44 161 Stoofvlees II a12 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-27 20:30 162 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-28 00:15 163 Houdini 6.03 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-28 04:01 164 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-28 07:46 165 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-28 11:32 166 Komodo 2381.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-28 15:18 167 Stockfish 190826 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-28 19:03 168 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Stoofvlees II a12
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