Sep 10 2019
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Output from BayesElo program

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 Stockfish 190826 10.0 25.87 2.72 1.96 51 24 13 7 4 2 0
2 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 9.0 24.26 2.73 2.73 25 28 20 13 9 5 1
3 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 9.0 23.31 2.64 3.24 14 22 23 18 13 8 2
4 Houdini 6.03 8.5 21.92 2.21 4.07 4 11 19 26 23 14 3
5 Komodo 2381.00 8.5 21.75 2.67 4.16 6 12 17 20 22 17 5
6 Stoofvlees II a10/II a11/II a12 8.0 19.92 2.31 5.29 1 3 7 14 24 37 12
7 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 5.0 15.68 2.68 7.18 0 0 1 2 4 11 39
8 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8/v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8/v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 5.0 15.29 2.27 7.38 0 0 0 0 2 8 38

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 190826 46.162% 24.283% 70.445% 13.938% 8.311% 4.790% 2.081% 0.435% 0.380% 0.055%
2. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 25.727% 26.189% 51.916% 19.209% 13.195% 9.214% 5.216% 1.250% 1.098% 0.152%
3. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 15.946% 21.618% 37.564% 21.629% 17.749% 13.128% 7.871% 2.059% 1.763% 0.296%
4. Houdini 6.03 4.490% 11.858% 16.348% 19.543% 24.429% 22.190% 14.004% 3.486% 3.091% 0.395%
5. Komodo 2381.00 6.703% 12.318% 19.021% 17.041% 19.772% 21.149% 16.941% 6.076% 5.004% 1.072%
6. Stoofvlees II a12 0.921% 3.452% 4.373% 7.861% 14.186% 23.183% 35.167% 15.230% 12.415% 2.815%
7. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 0.047% 0.256% 0.303% 0.645% 1.842% 4.434% 11.584% 81.192% 39.595% 41.597%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 0.004% 0.026% 0.030% 0.134% 0.516% 1.912% 7.136% 90.272% 36.654% 53.618%

Speculate LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 – Stockfish 190826 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 36.387% 26.176% 62.563% 16.863% 10.501% 6.353% 3.137% 0.583% 0.528% 0.055%
2. Stockfish 190826 34.189% 26.538% 60.727% 17.404% 11.182% 6.696% 3.291% 0.700% 0.629% 0.071%
3. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 16.556% 20.736% 37.292% 21.784% 17.695% 13.009% 8.042% 2.178% 1.890% 0.288%
4. Houdini 6.03 4.806% 11.309% 16.115% 18.900% 24.643% 22.618% 14.132% 3.592% 3.213% 0.379%
5. Komodo 2381.00 6.971% 11.780% 18.751% 16.717% 19.837% 21.418% 16.997% 6.280% 5.132% 1.148%
6. Stoofvlees II a12 1.037% 3.200% 4.237% 7.522% 13.919% 23.627% 35.270% 15.425% 12.505% 2.920%
7. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 0.049% 0.231% 0.280% 0.688% 1.731% 4.429% 11.706% 81.166% 39.544% 41.622%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 0.005% 0.030% 0.035% 0.122% 0.492% 1.850% 7.425% 90.076% 36.559% 53.517%

Speculate LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 – Stockfish 190826 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 190826 47.588% 24.430% 72.018% 13.667% 7.901% 4.343% 1.736% 0.335% 0.305% 0.030%
2. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 24.101% 26.675% 50.776% 19.881% 13.876% 9.284% 5.044% 1.139% 1.026% 0.113%
3. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 16.073% 21.211% 37.284% 22.023% 17.405% 13.050% 8.168% 2.070% 1.771% 0.299%
4. Houdini 6.03 4.517% 11.711% 16.228% 19.323% 24.444% 22.392% 14.167% 3.446% 3.076% 0.370%
5. Komodo 2381.00 6.718% 12.235% 18.953% 16.590% 19.873% 21.224% 17.035% 6.325% 5.176% 1.149%
6. Stoofvlees II a12 0.948% 3.476% 4.424% 7.694% 14.133% 23.339% 34.786% 15.624% 12.620% 3.004%
7. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 0.052% 0.240% 0.292% 0.706% 1.864% 4.452% 11.653% 81.033% 39.875% 41.158%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 0.003% 0.022% 0.025% 0.116% 0.504% 1.916% 7.411% 90.028% 36.151% 53.877%

Speculate LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 – Stockfish 190826 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 190826 59.375% 21.362% 80.737% 10.324% 5.309% 2.481% 0.975% 0.174% 0.165% 0.009%
2. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 14.955% 25.325% 40.280% 21.160% 17.029% 12.109% 7.429% 1.993% 1.748% 0.245%
3. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 14.756% 23.843% 38.599% 22.058% 17.183% 12.447% 7.641% 2.072% 1.785% 0.287%
4. Houdini 6.03 3.971% 12.301% 16.272% 20.501% 24.198% 21.842% 13.776% 3.411% 3.048% 0.363%
5. Komodo 2381.00 6.122% 13.260% 19.382% 17.036% 19.581% 21.195% 16.683% 6.123% 5.037% 1.086%
6. Stoofvlees II a12 0.785% 3.651% 4.436% 8.026% 14.293% 23.422% 34.409% 15.414% 12.430% 2.984%
7. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 0.032% 0.243% 0.275% 0.757% 1.867% 4.564% 11.772% 80.765% 39.680% 41.085%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 0.004% 0.015% 0.019% 0.138% 0.540% 1.940% 7.315% 90.048% 36.107% 53.941%

Expected start time based on estimate of 3.17h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2019-09-11 01:48 65 Stockfish 190826 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-11 04:59 66 Komodo 2381.00 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-11 08:09 67 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-11 11:19 68 Houdini 6.03 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-11 14:29 69 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-11 17:39 70 Stoofvlees II a12 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-11 20:49 71 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-11 23:59 72 Stockfish 190826 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-12 03:09 73 Komodo 2381.00 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-12 06:19 74 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-12 09:29 75 Houdini 6.03 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-12 12:40 76 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-12 15:50 77 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-12 19:00 78 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-12 22:10 79 Stockfish 190826 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-13 01:20 80 Komodo 2381.00 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-13 04:30 81 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-13 07:40 82 Houdini 6.03 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-13 10:50 83 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-13 14:00 84 Stoofvlees II a12 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-13 17:10 85 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-13 20:21 86 Stoofvlees II a12 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-13 23:31 87 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-14 02:41 88 Houdini 6.03 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-14 05:51 89 Houdini 6.03 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-14 09:01 90 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-14 12:11 91 Komodo 2381.00 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-14 15:21 92 Stockfish 190826 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-14 18:31 93 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-14 21:41 94 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-15 00:51 95 Stoofvlees II a12 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-15 04:02 96 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-15 07:12 97 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-15 10:22 98 Houdini 6.03 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-15 13:32 99 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-15 16:42 100 Komodo 2381.00 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-15 19:52 101 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-15 23:02 102 Stockfish 190826 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-16 02:12 103 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-16 05:22 104 Stoofvlees II a12 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-16 08:32 105 Stoofvlees II a12 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-16 11:42 106 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-16 14:53 107 Houdini 6.03 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-16 18:03 108 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-16 21:13 109 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-17 00:23 110 Komodo 2381.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-17 03:33 111 Stockfish 190826 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-17 06:43 112 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-17 09:53 113 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-17 13:03 114 Stockfish 190826 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-17 16:13 115 Komodo 2381.00 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-17 19:23 116 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-17 22:34 117 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-18 01:44 118 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-18 04:54 119 Stoofvlees II a12 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-18 08:04 120 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-18 11:14 121 Stockfish 190826 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-18 14:24 122 Komodo 2381.00 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-18 17:34 123 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-18 20:44 124 Houdini 6.03 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-18 23:54 125 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-19 03:04 126 Stoofvlees II a12 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-19 06:15 127 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-19 09:25 128 Stockfish 190826 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-19 12:35 129 Komodo 2381.00 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-19 15:45 130 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-19 18:55 131 Houdini 6.03 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-19 22:05 132 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-20 01:15 133 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-20 04:25 134 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-20 07:35 135 Stockfish 190826 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-20 10:45 136 Komodo 2381.00 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-20 13:56 137 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-20 17:06 138 Houdini 6.03 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-20 20:16 139 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-20 23:26 140 Stoofvlees II a12 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-21 02:36 141 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-21 05:46 142 Stoofvlees II a12 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-21 08:56 143 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-21 12:06 144 Houdini 6.03 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-21 15:16 145 Houdini 6.03 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-21 18:26 146 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-21 21:37 147 Komodo 2381.00 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-22 00:47 148 Stockfish 190826 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-22 03:57 149 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-22 07:07 150 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-22 10:17 151 Stoofvlees II a12 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-22 13:27 152 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-22 16:37 153 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-22 19:47 154 Houdini 6.03 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-22 22:57 155 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-23 02:07 156 Komodo 2381.00 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-23 05:18 157 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-23 08:28 158 Stockfish 190826 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-23 11:38 159 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-23 14:48 160 Stoofvlees II a12 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-23 17:58 161 Stoofvlees II a12 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-23 21:08 162 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-24 00:18 163 Houdini 6.03 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-24 03:28 164 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-24 06:38 165 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-24 09:48 166 Komodo 2381.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-24 12:59 167 Stockfish 190826 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-24 16:09 168 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Stoofvlees II a12
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