Sep 20 2019
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 61.483% 26.664% 88.147% 10.268% 1.583% 0.002%
2. Stockfish 190826 27.579% 42.537% 70.116% 24.898% 4.945% 0.041%
3. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 10.277% 26.807% 37.084% 47.590% 14.796% 0.514% 0.016%
4. Komodo 2381.00 0.661% 3.984% 4.645% 16.860% 68.547% 8.713% 1.233% 0.002% 0.002%
5. Houdini 6.03 0.008% 0.008% 0.322% 7.722% 61.197% 29.767% 0.984% 0.979% 0.005%
6. Stoofvlees II a12 0.062% 2.405% 29.158% 64.434% 3.941% 3.917% 0.024%
7. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 0.002% 0.370% 4.468% 95.160% 80.521% 14.639%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 0.005% 0.082% 99.913% 14.581% 85.332%

Speculate ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 – LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 64.638% 27.251% 91.889% 6.924% 1.186% 0.001%
2. Stockfish 190826 30.201% 49.212% 79.413% 16.720% 3.811% 0.055% 0.001%
3. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 4.391% 18.279% 22.670% 52.798% 23.242% 1.235% 0.055%
4. Komodo 2381.00 0.770% 5.240% 6.010% 22.794% 61.319% 8.675% 1.198% 0.004% 0.004%
5. Houdini 6.03 0.016% 0.016% 0.636% 7.947% 60.613% 29.718% 1.070% 1.052% 0.018%
6. Stoofvlees II a12 0.002% 0.002% 0.128% 2.494% 29.019% 64.287% 4.070% 3.996% 0.074%
7. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 0.001% 0.394% 4.467% 95.138% 71.954% 23.184%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 0.008% 0.274% 99.718% 22.994% 76.724%

Speculate ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 – LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 62.468% 26.656% 89.124% 9.405% 1.469% 0.002%
2. Stockfish 190826 28.406% 43.638% 72.044% 23.074% 4.819% 0.062% 0.001%
3. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 8.415% 25.311% 33.726% 49.480% 16.250% 0.527% 0.017%
4. Komodo 2381.00 0.711% 4.386% 5.097% 17.649% 67.376% 8.698% 1.176% 0.004% 0.004%
5. Houdini 6.03 0.009% 0.009% 0.348% 7.730% 61.019% 29.884% 1.010% 1.005% 0.005%
6. Stoofvlees II a12 0.044% 2.356% 29.331% 64.436% 3.833% 3.810% 0.023%
7. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 0.360% 4.408% 95.232% 79.939% 15.293%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 0.001% 0.078% 99.921% 15.242% 84.679%

Speculate ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 – LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 58.928% 26.626% 85.554% 12.677% 1.763% 0.006%
2. Stockfish 190826 25.683% 37.953% 63.636% 30.656% 5.650% 0.057% 0.001%
3. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 14.744% 32.034% 46.778% 43.404% 9.659% 0.157% 0.002%
4. Komodo 2381.00 0.645% 3.385% 4.030% 13.067% 73.000% 8.824% 1.076% 0.003% 0.003%
5. Houdini 6.03 0.002% 0.002% 0.173% 7.644% 61.308% 29.847% 1.026% 1.022% 0.004%
6. Stoofvlees II a12 0.023% 2.282% 29.265% 64.611% 3.819% 3.814% 0.005%
7. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 0.002% 0.383% 4.448% 95.167% 85.435% 9.732%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 0.015% 99.985% 9.726% 90.259%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 22.0 26.09 1.15 1.52 60 29 10 1 0 0 0
2 Stockfish 190826 21.5 25.49 1.16 1.93 32 45 20 3 0 0 0
3 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 20.5 24.40 1.15 2.75 8 23 56 13 0 0 0
4 Komodo 2381.00 19.0 22.63 1.15 3.87 0 2 14 78 5 0 0
5 Houdini 6.03 16.5 20.01 1.12 5.24 0 0 0 5 66 28 0
6 Stoofvlees II a10/II a11/II a12 16.0 19.16 1.12 5.72 0 0 0 1 28 69 2
7 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 13.0 16.02 1.14 7.10 0 0 0 0 0 3 85
8 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8/v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8/v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 11.5 14.21 1.12 7.87 0 0 0 0 0 0 13

Expected start time based on estimate of 3.05h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2019-09-20 12:49 142 Stoofvlees II a12 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-20 15:52 143 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-20 18:55 144 Houdini 6.03 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-20 21:58 145 Houdini 6.03 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-21 01:01 146 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-21 04:04 147 Komodo 2381.00 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-21 07:07 148 Stockfish 190826 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-21 10:10 149 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-21 13:12 150 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-21 16:15 151 Stoofvlees II a12 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-21 19:18 152 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-21 22:21 153 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-22 01:24 154 Houdini 6.03 Stoofvlees II a12
2019-09-22 04:27 155 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-22 07:30 156 Komodo 2381.00 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-22 10:33 157 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-22 13:36 158 Stockfish 190826 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-22 16:38 159 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-22 19:41 160 Stoofvlees II a12 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-22 22:44 161 Stoofvlees II a12 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8
2019-09-23 01:47 162 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160
2019-09-23 04:50 163 Houdini 6.03 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-23 07:53 164 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-23 10:56 165 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-23 13:59 166 Komodo 2381.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-23 17:02 167 Stockfish 190826 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-23 20:04 168 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Stoofvlees II a12
Posted inBayesElo