Sep 23 2019
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 58.123% 28.314% 86.437% 13.563%
2. Stockfish 190826 29.431% 37.628% 67.059% 32.941%
3. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 12.446% 34.058% 46.504% 53.496%
4. Komodo 2381.00 100.000%
5. Houdini 6.03 64.567% 35.433%
6. Stoofvlees II a12 35.433% 64.567%
7. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 100.000% 100.000%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate KomodoMCTS 2381.00 – LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 63.903% 32.916% 96.819% 3.181%
2. Stockfish 190826 35.456% 52.258% 87.714% 12.286%
3. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 0.641% 14.826% 15.467% 84.533%
4. Komodo 2381.00 100.000%
5. Houdini 6.03 64.422% 35.578%
6. Stoofvlees II a12 35.578% 64.422%
7. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 100.000% 100.000%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate KomodoMCTS 2381.00 – LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 61.849% 28.208% 90.057% 9.943%
2. Stockfish 190826 32.559% 36.691% 69.250% 30.750%
3. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 5.592% 35.101% 40.693% 59.307%
4. Komodo 2381.00 100.000%
5. Houdini 6.03 64.290% 35.710%
6. Stoofvlees II a12 35.710% 64.290%
7. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 100.000% 100.000%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate KomodoMCTS 2381.00 – LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 52.252% 25.902% 78.154% 21.846%
2. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 23.480% 45.042% 68.522% 31.478%
3. Stockfish 190826 24.268% 29.056% 53.324% 46.676%
4. Komodo 2381.00 100.000%
5. Houdini 6.03 64.991% 35.009%
6. Stoofvlees II a12 35.009% 64.991%
7. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 100.000% 100.000%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 100.000% 100.000%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 25.0 26.26 0.59 1.71 47 35 18 0 0 0 0
2 Stockfish 190826 25.0 26.22 0.59 1.78 43 37 20 0 0 0 0
3 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 24.5 25.76 0.59 2.51 11 28 62 0 0 0 0
4 Komodo 2381.00 21.0 21.96 0.60 4.00 0 0 0 100 0 0 0
5 Houdini 6.03 18.0 18.88 0.60 5.47 0 0 0 0 53 47 0
6 Stoofvlees II a10/II a11/II a12 18.5 18.83 0.40 5.53 0 0 0 0 47 53 0
7 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 15.5 16.23 0.59 7.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
8 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8/v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8/v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 13.5 13.85 0.41 8.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Expected start time based on estimate of 3.04h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2019-09-23 03:27 163 Houdini 6.03 Stockfish 190826
2019-09-23 06:30 164 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 Komodo 2381.00
2019-09-23 09:32 165 ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10
2019-09-23 12:35 166 Komodo 2381.00 Houdini 6.03
2019-09-23 15:37 167 Stockfish 190826 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-23 18:39 168 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Stoofvlees II a12
Posted inBayesElo