For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 190826 79.196% 9.474% 88.670% 11.330%
2. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 20.804% 79.196% 100.000%
3. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 11.330% 11.330% 88.670%
4. Komodo 2381.00 100.000%
5. Stoofvlees II a12 62.420% 37.580%
6. Houdini 6.03 37.580% 62.420%
7. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 100.000% 100.000%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Komodo 2381.00 – Houdini 6.03 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 190826 79.391% 9.292% 88.683% 11.317%
2. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 20.609% 79.391% 100.000%
3. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 11.317% 11.317% 88.683%
4. Komodo 2381.00 100.000%
5. Stoofvlees II a12 100.000%
6. Houdini 6.03 100.000%
7. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 100.000% 100.000%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Komodo 2381.00 – Houdini 6.03 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 190826 79.165% 9.351% 88.516% 11.484%
2. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 20.835% 79.165% 100.000%
3. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 11.484% 11.484% 88.516%
4. Komodo 2381.00 100.000%
5. Houdini 6.03 54.539% 45.461%
6. Stoofvlees II a12 45.461% 54.539%
7. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 100.000% 100.000%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Komodo 2381.00 – Houdini 6.03 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 190826 79.353% 9.530% 88.883% 11.117%
2. AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 20.647% 79.353% 100.000%
3. LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 11.117% 11.117% 88.883%
4. Komodo 2381.00 100.000%
5. Houdini 6.03 78.194% 21.806%
6. Stoofvlees II a12 21.806% 78.194%
7. KomodoMCTS 2381.00 100.000% 100.000%
8. ScorpioNN v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 100.000% 100.000%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 Stockfish 190826 26.0 26.68 0.40 1.00 100 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 AllieStein v0.5-dev_1359f44-n10 26.0 26.00 0.00 2.00 0 100 0 0 0 0 0
3 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 25.0 25.67 0.40 3.00 0 0 100 0 0 0 0
4 Komodo 2381.00 21.5 22.07 0.42 4.00 0 0 0 100 0 0 0
5 Stoofvlees II a10/II a11/II a12 18.5 18.83 0.40 5.21 0 0 0 0 79 21 0
6 Houdini 6.03 18.0 18.43 0.42 5.79 0 0 0 0 21 79 0
7 KomodoMCTS 2381.00 16.0 16.32 0.40 7.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
8 ScorpioNN v2.9.1-n_maddex_INT8/v2.9.2-n_maddex_INT8/v3.0.1-n_maddex_INT8 14.0 14.00 0.00 8.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Expected start time based on estimate of 3.03h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2019-09-23 14:51 167 Stockfish 190826 KomodoMCTS 2381.00
2019-09-23 17:53 168 LCZero v0.22.0-nT40B.4-160 Stoofvlees II a12