For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 90.185% 7.524% 1.701% 0.433% 0.126% 0.025% 99.994% 0.005% 0.001%
2. Demolito 20191229 3.867% 39.713% 23.481% 14.844% 8.923% 4.936% 95.764% 2.464% 1.182% 0.454% 0.132% 0.004%
3. Pirarucu 3.2.4 3.881% 24.249% 24.359% 18.204% 12.778% 8.044% 91.515% 4.838% 2.446% 0.929% 0.256% 0.016%
4. Minic 1.26 1.756% 16.825% 23.001% 22.031% 15.596% 9.705% 88.914% 5.779% 3.166% 1.560% 0.549% 0.032%
5. Winter 0.7.4 0.135% 6.179% 11.224% 15.199% 17.469% 16.216% 66.422% 13.179% 9.881% 6.409% 3.545% 0.563% 0.001%
6. PeSTO 2.210 0.036% 2.162% 5.805% 9.380% 12.948% 14.937% 45.268% 15.092% 14.038% 12.788% 10.616% 2.189% 0.009%
7. Topple 0.7.4 0.111% 1.748% 4.321% 7.522% 11.230% 14.551% 39.483% 16.272% 16.463% 14.570% 11.008% 2.192% 0.012%
8. iCE 4.0.853 0.015% 1.019% 3.721% 6.478% 9.690% 12.570% 33.493% 14.655% 15.706% 16.065% 16.112% 3.947% 0.022%
9. Igel 2.3.0 0.009% 0.276% 1.199% 3.022% 5.585% 9.603% 19.694% 13.994% 18.334% 21.677% 20.654% 5.581% 0.065% 0.001%
10. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 0.005% 0.305% 1.183% 2.847% 5.532% 9.074% 18.946% 12.776% 16.629% 20.647% 24.448% 6.493% 0.061%
11. Gogobello 2.1_dev 0.005% 0.040% 0.123% 0.339% 0.507% 0.946% 2.152% 4.889% 12.552% 72.127% 5.763% 0.891% 0.156% 0.017%
12. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 0.002% 0.009% 0.098% 3.593% 31.986% 27.687% 22.835% 10.746% 3.044%
13. Tucano 8.07_dev2 0.002% 0.014% 1.651% 30.669% 27.932% 22.055% 12.985% 4.692%
14. Counter 3.4 0.001% 0.016% 1.346% 24.990% 27.333% 23.789% 16.039% 6.486%
15. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 0.248% 5.035% 11.807% 21.233% 37.213% 24.464%
16. Cheese 2.1 0.018% 1.387% 4.349% 9.932% 23.000% 61.314%

Speculate Gogobello 2.1_dev – iCE 4.0.853 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 90.248% 7.453% 1.706% 0.445% 0.109% 0.028% 99.989% 0.010% 0.001%
2. Demolito 20191229 3.890% 39.636% 23.714% 15.050% 8.855% 4.896% 96.041% 2.354% 1.094% 0.406% 0.099% 0.006%
3. Pirarucu 3.2.4 3.864% 24.765% 24.800% 18.755% 12.612% 7.864% 92.660% 4.257% 1.969% 0.866% 0.227% 0.021%
4. Minic 1.26 1.667% 17.124% 23.631% 22.823% 15.609% 8.931% 89.785% 5.337% 2.841% 1.444% 0.502% 0.090% 0.001%
5. Winter 0.7.4 0.142% 6.054% 11.470% 15.376% 18.383% 16.751% 68.176% 13.153% 8.920% 5.808% 3.160% 0.781% 0.002%
6. PeSTO 2.210 0.052% 2.146% 5.990% 9.796% 13.725% 15.525% 47.234% 14.860% 13.786% 11.936% 9.074% 3.089% 0.021%
7. Topple 0.7.4 0.124% 1.894% 4.643% 7.849% 11.929% 15.298% 41.737% 16.422% 15.582% 13.218% 9.639% 3.380% 0.022%
8. Igel 2.3.0 0.011% 0.313% 1.243% 3.233% 6.022% 10.351% 21.173% 14.865% 18.612% 19.985% 17.495% 7.784% 0.086%
9. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 0.002% 0.319% 1.193% 3.021% 6.070% 9.948% 20.553% 13.649% 16.872% 19.559% 20.332% 8.980% 0.055%
10. iCE 4.0.853 0.295% 1.589% 3.575% 6.394% 9.627% 21.480% 13.165% 16.312% 18.798% 21.500% 8.690% 0.054% 0.001%
11. Gogobello 2.1_dev 0.001% 0.021% 0.077% 0.292% 0.781% 1.172% 1.928% 4.010% 7.976% 17.871% 64.142% 2.644% 0.227% 0.029% 0.001%
12. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 0.001% 0.003% 0.077% 1.755% 33.188% 28.079% 23.061% 10.782% 3.054%
13. Tucano 8.07_dev2 0.010% 0.659% 31.597% 28.012% 22.108% 12.830% 4.784%
14. Counter 3.4 0.001% 0.014% 0.536% 25.684% 27.358% 23.663% 16.303% 6.441%
15. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 0.084% 5.147% 12.082% 21.310% 36.988% 24.389%
16. Cheese 2.1 0.003% 1.499% 4.241% 9.829% 23.096% 61.332%

Speculate Gogobello 2.1_dev – iCE 4.0.853 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 90.254% 7.382% 1.728% 0.456% 0.131% 0.041% 99.992% 0.007% 0.001%
2. Demolito 20191229 3.951% 39.932% 23.476% 14.798% 8.740% 4.781% 95.678% 2.594% 1.133% 0.465% 0.129% 0.001%
3. Pirarucu 3.2.4 3.767% 24.459% 24.568% 18.212% 12.501% 8.157% 91.664% 4.676% 2.390% 0.966% 0.288% 0.016%
4. Minic 1.26 1.727% 16.837% 22.993% 22.080% 15.580% 9.693% 88.910% 5.716% 3.169% 1.570% 0.585% 0.050%
5. Winter 0.7.4 0.129% 6.110% 11.229% 15.143% 17.622% 16.298% 66.531% 13.331% 9.934% 6.251% 3.467% 0.482% 0.004%
6. PeSTO 2.210 0.043% 2.124% 5.836% 9.643% 13.021% 14.886% 45.553% 14.642% 13.918% 12.918% 10.756% 2.199% 0.014%
7. Topple 0.7.4 0.108% 1.799% 4.552% 7.492% 11.461% 14.232% 39.644% 16.212% 16.234% 14.512% 11.286% 2.094% 0.018%
8. iCE 4.0.853 0.010% 0.789% 3.243% 6.204% 9.485% 12.836% 32.567% 15.268% 16.455% 16.883% 16.153% 2.669% 0.005%
9. Igel 2.3.0 0.006% 0.280% 1.181% 3.053% 5.766% 9.640% 19.926% 14.021% 18.135% 21.570% 20.695% 5.584% 0.067% 0.002%
10. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 0.005% 0.288% 1.194% 2.900% 5.626% 9.194% 19.207% 12.868% 16.851% 20.441% 24.282% 6.304% 0.047%
11. Gogobello 2.1_dev 0.019% 0.067% 0.242% 0.328% 0.665% 1.780% 4.418% 12.229% 74.672% 5.168% 0.655% 0.080% 0.004% 0.001%
12. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 0.005% 0.102% 3.194% 31.796% 27.878% 23.290% 10.627% 3.108%
13. Tucano 8.07_dev2 0.012% 1.367% 30.922% 28.290% 21.890% 12.889% 4.630%
14. Counter 3.4 0.001% 0.016% 1.132% 25.419% 26.988% 23.791% 16.226% 6.427%
15. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 0.231% 5.068% 11.871% 21.086% 37.270% 24.474%
16. Cheese 2.1 0.005% 1.472% 4.316% 9.863% 22.984% 61.360%

Speculate Gogobello 2.1_dev – iCE 4.0.853 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 90.337% 7.373% 1.717% 0.418% 0.111% 0.032% 99.988% 0.009% 0.003%
2. Demolito 20191229 3.921% 39.462% 23.547% 14.488% 8.946% 4.925% 95.289% 2.676% 1.323% 0.539% 0.172% 0.001%
3. Pirarucu 3.2.4 3.751% 24.044% 23.629% 17.945% 12.838% 8.392% 90.599% 5.246% 2.754% 1.132% 0.267% 0.002%
4. Minic 1.26 1.662% 16.699% 22.129% 21.169% 15.657% 10.323% 87.639% 6.213% 3.701% 1.805% 0.611% 0.031%
5. Winter 0.7.4 0.131% 6.073% 10.872% 14.478% 16.737% 15.977% 64.268% 13.880% 10.495% 7.095% 3.957% 0.304% 0.001%
6. iCE 4.0.853 0.037% 2.029% 6.167% 9.783% 12.829% 15.062% 45.907% 15.522% 14.561% 13.032% 10.373% 0.604% 0.001%
7. PeSTO 2.210 0.041% 1.956% 5.590% 9.128% 12.022% 14.416% 43.153% 14.975% 14.625% 13.805% 12.132% 1.295% 0.015%
8. Topple 0.7.4 0.107% 1.771% 4.142% 7.065% 10.318% 13.560% 36.963% 16.112% 17.506% 15.801% 12.290% 1.319% 0.009%
9. Igel 2.3.0 0.008% 0.282% 1.141% 2.802% 5.358% 8.780% 18.371% 12.994% 17.927% 23.190% 23.945% 3.520% 0.052% 0.001%
10. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 0.005% 0.311% 1.066% 2.721% 5.168% 8.484% 17.755% 12.176% 16.380% 21.407% 28.201% 4.031% 0.050%
11. Gogobello 2.1_dev 0.003% 0.016% 0.049% 0.068% 0.197% 0.724% 2.183% 7.889% 77.793% 9.132% 1.678% 0.298% 0.037% 0.001%
12. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 0.001% 0.010% 0.116% 5.617% 30.089% 27.683% 22.880% 10.598% 3.006%
13. Tucano 8.07_dev2 0.001% 0.024% 2.825% 29.886% 27.709% 22.241% 12.758% 4.556%
14. Counter 3.4 0.022% 2.215% 24.301% 27.011% 23.721% 16.373% 6.357%
15. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 0.001% 0.412% 5.023% 11.679% 21.062% 37.282% 24.541%
16. Cheese 2.1 0.031% 1.441% 4.239% 9.798% 22.952% 61.539%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev 16.0 22.57 1.19 1.11 92 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Demolito 20191225/20191229 14.5 19.86 1.29 2.99 4 45 23 14 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 14.5 19.32 1.30 3.61 3 25 28 19 12 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 13.5 18.88 1.28 4.16 1 15 23 24 16 10 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 Winter 0.7.4 12.5 17.94 1.32 5.62 0 5 11 16 19 17 13 9 6 3 0 0 0 0 0
6 PeSTO 2.210 12.0 17.21 1.37 6.80 0 1 5 9 14 16 16 14 12 10 2 0 0 0 0
7 Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 12.5 17.02 1.35 7.10 0 1 4 7 11 15 17 17 15 11 2 0 0 0 0
8 iCE 4.0.853 11.5 16.75 1.42 7.49 0 1 3 6 9 13 15 17 16 16 4 0 0 0 0
9 Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 11.5 16.30 1.31 8.22 0 0 1 2 5 9 14 18 22 22 6 0 0 0 0
10 Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 12.0 16.25 1.34 8.27 0 0 1 3 5 9 13 17 21 24 7 0 0 0 0
11 Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev 9.0 13.77 1.42 10.68 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 13 74 3 0 0 0
12 FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev 6.5 9.83 1.35 13.07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 37 28 21 10
13 Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 6.0 9.54 1.30 13.34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 29 28 24 14
14 Counter 3.4 6.0 9.43 1.27 13.44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 25 28 26 15
15 Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 5.0 8.19 1.29 14.63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 12 21 39
16 Cheese 2.1 4.0 7.13 1.23 15.48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 8 22

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.07h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-01-09 07:12 169 FabChess 1.13.5_dev Gogobello 2.1_dev
2020-01-09 08:17 170 iCE 4.0.853 PeSTO 2.210
2020-01-09 09:21 171 Demolito 20191229 Winter 0.7.4
2020-01-09 10:25 172 Defenchess 2.3_dev Topple 0.7.4
2020-01-09 11:30 173 Cheese 2.1 Marvin 3.5.0-a8
2020-01-09 12:34 174 Tucano 8.07_dev2 Pirarucu 3.2.4
2020-01-09 13:38 175 Counter 3.4 Asymptote 0.7_dev3
2020-01-09 14:43 176 Minic 1.26 Igel 2.3.0
2020-01-09 15:47 177 Minic 1.26 FabChess 1.13.5_dev
2020-01-09 16:51 178 Igel 2.3.0 Counter 3.4
2020-01-09 17:56 179 Asymptote 0.7_dev3 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-01-09 19:00 180 Pirarucu 3.2.4 Cheese 2.1
2020-01-09 20:05 181 Marvin 3.5.0-a8 Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-01-09 21:09 182 Topple 0.7.4 Demolito 20191229
2020-01-09 22:13 183 Winter 0.7.4 iCE 4.0.853
2020-01-09 23:18 184 PeSTO 2.210 Gogobello 2.1_dev
2020-01-10 00:22 185 FabChess 1.13.5_dev PeSTO 2.210
2020-01-10 01:26 186 Gogobello 2.1_dev Winter 0.7.4
2020-01-10 02:31 187 iCE 4.0.853 Topple 0.7.4
2020-01-10 03:35 188 Demolito 20191229 Marvin 3.5.0-a8
2020-01-10 04:39 189 Defenchess 2.3_dev Pirarucu 3.2.4
2020-01-10 05:44 190 Cheese 2.1 Asymptote 0.7_dev3
2020-01-10 06:48 191 Tucano 8.07_dev2 Igel 2.3.0
2020-01-10 07:53 192 Counter 3.4 Minic 1.26
2020-01-10 08:57 193 Counter 3.4 FabChess 1.13.5_dev
2020-01-10 10:01 194 Minic 1.26 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-01-10 11:06 195 Igel 2.3.0 Cheese 2.1
2020-01-10 12:10 196 Asymptote 0.7_dev3 Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-01-10 13:14 197 Pirarucu 3.2.4 Demolito 20191229
2020-01-10 14:19 198 Marvin 3.5.0-a8 iCE 4.0.853
2020-01-10 15:23 199 Topple 0.7.4 Gogobello 2.1_dev
2020-01-10 16:27 200 Winter 0.7.4 PeSTO 2.210
2020-01-10 17:32 201 FabChess 1.13.5_dev Winter 0.7.4
2020-01-10 18:36 202 PeSTO 2.210 Topple 0.7.4
2020-01-10 19:40 203 Gogobello 2.1_dev Marvin 3.5.0-a8
2020-01-10 20:45 204 iCE 4.0.853 Pirarucu 3.2.4
2020-01-10 21:49 205 Demolito 20191229 Asymptote 0.7_dev3
2020-01-10 22:54 206 Defenchess 2.3_dev Igel 2.3.0
2020-01-10 23:58 207 Cheese 2.1 Minic 1.26
2020-01-11 01:02 208 Tucano 8.07_dev2 Counter 3.4
2020-01-11 02:07 209 Tucano 8.07_dev2 FabChess 1.13.5_dev
2020-01-11 03:11 210 Counter 3.4 Cheese 2.1
2020-01-11 04:15 211 Minic 1.26 Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-01-11 05:20 212 Igel 2.3.0 Demolito 20191229
2020-01-11 06:24 213 Asymptote 0.7_dev3 iCE 4.0.853
2020-01-11 07:28 214 Pirarucu 3.2.4 Gogobello 2.1_dev
2020-01-11 08:33 215 Marvin 3.5.0-a8 PeSTO 2.210
2020-01-11 09:37 216 Topple 0.7.4 Winter 0.7.4
2020-01-11 10:42 217 FabChess 1.13.5_dev Topple 0.7.4
2020-01-11 11:46 218 Winter 0.7.4 Marvin 3.5.0-a8
2020-01-11 12:50 219 PeSTO 2.210 Pirarucu 3.2.4
2020-01-11 13:55 220 Gogobello 2.1_dev Asymptote 0.7_dev3
2020-01-11 14:59 221 iCE 4.0.853 Igel 2.3.0
2020-01-11 16:03 222 Demolito 20191229 Minic 1.26
2020-01-11 17:08 223 Defenchess 2.3_dev Counter 3.4
2020-01-11 18:12 224 Cheese 2.1 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-01-11 19:16 225 Cheese 2.1 FabChess 1.13.5_dev
2020-01-11 20:21 226 Tucano 8.07_dev2 Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-01-11 21:25 227 Counter 3.4 Demolito 20191229
2020-01-11 22:30 228 Minic 1.26 iCE 4.0.853
2020-01-11 23:34 229 Igel 2.3.0 Gogobello 2.1_dev
2020-01-12 00:38 230 Asymptote 0.7_dev3 PeSTO 2.210
2020-01-12 01:43 231 Pirarucu 3.2.4 Winter 0.7.4
2020-01-12 02:47 232 Marvin 3.5.0-a8 Topple 0.7.4
2020-01-12 03:51 233 FabChess 1.13.5_dev Marvin 3.5.0-a8
2020-01-12 04:56 234 Topple 0.7.4 Pirarucu 3.2.4
2020-01-12 06:00 235 Winter 0.7.4 Asymptote 0.7_dev3
2020-01-12 07:04 236 PeSTO 2.210 Igel 2.3.0
2020-01-12 08:09 237 Gogobello 2.1_dev Minic 1.26
2020-01-12 09:13 238 iCE 4.0.853 Counter 3.4
2020-01-12 10:18 239 Demolito 20191229 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-01-12 11:22 240 Defenchess 2.3_dev Cheese 2.1