For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.936% |
0.064% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.060% |
77.616% |
14.769% |
5.258% |
1.663% |
0.501% |
|
99.867% |
|
0.113% |
0.018% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.004% |
11.573% |
25.343% |
25.286% |
17.598% |
11.325% |
|
91.129% |
|
6.127% |
2.178% |
0.511% |
0.055% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
7.028% |
24.882% |
19.557% |
17.063% |
13.046% |
|
81.576% |
|
9.159% |
5.372% |
2.745% |
1.135% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.472% |
14.930% |
17.492% |
18.673% |
17.251% |
|
69.818% |
|
14.681% |
9.391% |
4.848% |
1.252% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.708% |
8.587% |
12.957% |
15.620% |
17.170% |
|
55.042% |
|
16.798% |
13.977% |
9.733% |
4.366% |
0.084% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.303% |
9.100% |
12.473% |
14.724% |
15.349% |
|
52.949% |
|
15.207% |
13.380% |
11.323% |
7.004% |
0.137% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.203% |
1.428% |
3.793% |
7.682% |
12.743% |
|
25.849% |
|
17.162% |
22.174% |
22.412% |
11.857% |
0.546% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
0.028% |
0.603% |
2.049% |
4.464% |
7.610% |
|
14.754% |
|
11.906% |
18.310% |
24.272% |
27.696% |
3.061% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
0.005% |
0.358% |
1.135% |
2.513% |
5.005% |
|
9.016% |
|
8.824% |
14.872% |
22.915% |
39.683% |
4.688% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.023% |
0.328% |
1.239% |
6.952% |
89.228% |
2.068% |
0.157% |
0.005% |
|
|
12. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.318% |
38.946% |
33.148% |
19.616% |
6.334% |
0.638% |
13. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.716% |
36.418% |
31.604% |
19.946% |
10.197% |
1.119% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.121% |
19.249% |
24.511% |
33.414% |
18.183% |
4.522% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.078% |
3.141% |
9.769% |
24.248% |
57.239% |
5.525% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.175% |
0.811% |
2.771% |
8.047% |
88.196% |
Speculate Marvin 3.5.0-a8 – iCE 4.0.853 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.934% |
0.066% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.063% |
77.710% |
14.782% |
5.357% |
1.578% |
0.409% |
|
99.899% |
|
0.088% |
0.009% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.003% |
11.869% |
26.554% |
27.058% |
16.736% |
9.555% |
|
91.775% |
|
5.333% |
2.193% |
0.616% |
0.083% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
7.037% |
26.147% |
19.486% |
17.205% |
12.652% |
|
82.527% |
|
8.125% |
5.059% |
2.932% |
1.348% |
0.009% |
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.586% |
16.091% |
18.819% |
19.551% |
16.560% |
|
72.607% |
|
12.545% |
8.233% |
4.834% |
1.766% |
0.015% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.305% |
9.831% |
12.906% |
14.920% |
14.935% |
|
53.897% |
|
13.738% |
12.493% |
10.913% |
8.785% |
0.174% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.110% |
3.287% |
7.134% |
10.889% |
14.500% |
|
35.920% |
|
17.088% |
18.509% |
17.803% |
10.440% |
0.240% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.256% |
1.504% |
4.010% |
8.412% |
13.893% |
|
28.075% |
|
17.341% |
18.841% |
19.840% |
15.309% |
0.594% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
0.017% |
0.966% |
2.757% |
5.735% |
9.921% |
|
19.396% |
|
14.539% |
18.970% |
21.421% |
24.359% |
1.315% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
0.044% |
0.838% |
2.473% |
4.974% |
7.572% |
|
15.901% |
|
11.169% |
15.495% |
20.764% |
33.318% |
3.352% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
|
0.003% |
|
0.034% |
0.198% |
0.873% |
4.592% |
92.027% |
2.099% |
0.170% |
0.003% |
0.001% |
|
12. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.403% |
38.645% |
33.221% |
19.699% |
6.350% |
0.682% |
13. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.678% |
36.670% |
31.886% |
19.489% |
10.113% |
1.164% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.109% |
19.169% |
24.064% |
33.253% |
18.738% |
4.667% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.084% |
3.235% |
9.920% |
24.715% |
56.619% |
5.427% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.181% |
0.739% |
2.841% |
8.179% |
88.060% |
Speculate Marvin 3.5.0-a8 – iCE 4.0.853 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.925% |
0.075% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.069% |
77.972% |
14.437% |
5.343% |
1.573% |
0.467% |
|
99.861% |
|
0.126% |
0.011% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.006% |
11.641% |
25.907% |
25.382% |
17.309% |
11.051% |
|
91.296% |
|
6.039% |
2.139% |
0.491% |
0.035% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
6.976% |
25.561% |
19.592% |
16.772% |
12.833% |
|
81.734% |
|
8.882% |
5.273% |
2.845% |
1.260% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.431% |
15.107% |
17.731% |
18.796% |
17.062% |
|
70.127% |
|
14.484% |
9.399% |
4.817% |
1.169% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.365% |
7.140% |
12.396% |
16.548% |
18.704% |
|
55.153% |
|
18.462% |
15.060% |
8.884% |
2.417% |
0.024% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.293% |
9.622% |
12.755% |
14.929% |
15.063% |
|
53.662% |
|
15.054% |
12.938% |
10.911% |
7.274% |
0.161% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.223% |
1.425% |
3.971% |
7.825% |
13.378% |
|
26.822% |
|
17.105% |
21.469% |
22.449% |
11.648% |
0.507% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
0.024% |
0.648% |
2.179% |
4.413% |
7.482% |
|
14.746% |
|
11.969% |
18.297% |
23.512% |
28.308% |
3.165% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.153% |
0.651% |
1.835% |
3.958% |
|
6.597% |
|
7.856% |
15.130% |
24.862% |
41.817% |
3.738% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
|
0.002% |
|
0.023% |
0.284% |
1.227% |
6.072% |
90.147% |
2.088% |
0.151% |
0.006% |
|
|
12. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.381% |
38.994% |
33.033% |
19.850% |
6.100% |
0.642% |
13. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.683% |
36.425% |
32.047% |
19.523% |
10.140% |
1.182% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.120% |
19.174% |
24.314% |
33.599% |
18.268% |
4.525% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.064% |
3.102% |
9.663% |
24.247% |
57.354% |
5.570% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.214% |
0.792% |
2.775% |
8.138% |
88.081% |
Speculate Marvin 3.5.0-a8 – iCE 4.0.853 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.927% |
0.072% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.067% |
77.797% |
14.424% |
5.206% |
1.769% |
0.565% |
|
99.828% |
|
0.146% |
0.025% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.006% |
10.964% |
23.542% |
23.707% |
18.747% |
13.234% |
|
90.200% |
|
7.122% |
2.236% |
0.424% |
0.018% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
6.937% |
23.561% |
18.971% |
16.839% |
13.693% |
|
80.001% |
|
10.710% |
5.645% |
2.748% |
0.890% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
1.365% |
14.872% |
18.655% |
19.635% |
18.196% |
|
72.723% |
|
14.545% |
9.356% |
3.038% |
0.334% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.391% |
13.745% |
16.321% |
17.721% |
18.015% |
|
67.193% |
|
16.912% |
10.359% |
4.864% |
0.669% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.254% |
8.089% |
11.785% |
14.066% |
15.928% |
|
51.122% |
|
16.622% |
14.818% |
11.765% |
5.553% |
0.120% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.197% |
1.269% |
3.472% |
6.920% |
11.599% |
|
23.457% |
|
17.026% |
25.392% |
24.981% |
8.741% |
0.403% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
0.023% |
0.492% |
1.794% |
3.856% |
7.334% |
|
13.499% |
|
12.843% |
21.189% |
27.238% |
22.339% |
2.890% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.089% |
0.447% |
1.436% |
|
1.977% |
|
4.043% |
10.624% |
23.228% |
51.819% |
8.306% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.031% |
0.356% |
1.713% |
9.634% |
86.086% |
2.009% |
0.162% |
0.009% |
|
|
12. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
1.368% |
39.988% |
32.526% |
19.572% |
5.926% |
0.617% |
13. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.626% |
35.772% |
32.344% |
19.781% |
10.263% |
1.214% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.119% |
18.995% |
24.424% |
33.517% |
18.266% |
4.679% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.069% |
3.045% |
9.693% |
24.432% |
57.204% |
5.557% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.186% |
0.851% |
2.689% |
8.341% |
87.933% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
20.0 |
23.87 |
0.81 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
17.0 |
20.30 |
0.90 |
2.20 |
0 |
85 |
10 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
16.0 |
18.55 |
0.95 |
4.16 |
0 |
8 |
31 |
26 |
17 |
10 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
14.5 |
18.31 |
1.03 |
4.65 |
0 |
4 |
28 |
23 |
18 |
13 |
8 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
15.5 |
17.87 |
0.97 |
5.44 |
0 |
1 |
14 |
18 |
20 |
18 |
15 |
9 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
14.0 |
17.45 |
1.05 |
6.23 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
12 |
16 |
19 |
18 |
14 |
9 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
14.0 |
17.45 |
1.09 |
6.26 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
12 |
16 |
18 |
17 |
13 |
9 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
14.5 |
16.72 |
0.96 |
7.62 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
12 |
18 |
26 |
22 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
16.11 |
1.08 |
8.57 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
11 |
18 |
27 |
30 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
13.0 |
15.82 |
1.08 |
8.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
14 |
24 |
42 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
10.5 |
13.42 |
1.07 |
10.90 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
90 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.0 |
10.03 |
0.98 |
12.75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
49 |
31 |
15 |
5 |
13 |
Counter 3.4 |
8.0 |
9.80 |
0.89 |
12.99 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
34 |
39 |
20 |
6 |
14 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.0 |
9.05 |
0.92 |
13.81 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
21 |
38 |
24 |
15 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
7.0 |
8.46 |
0.89 |
14.56 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
8 |
25 |
58 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.0 |
6.79 |
0.90 |
15.88 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-10 16:04 |
199 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-10 17:09 |
200 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-10 18:13 |
201 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-10 19:18 |
202 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-10 20:22 |
203 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-10 21:27 |
204 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-10 22:32 |
205 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-10 23:36 |
206 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 00:41 |
207 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 01:45 |
208 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 02:50 |
209 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 03:54 |
210 |
Counter 3.4 |
Cheese 2.1 |
2020-01-11 04:59 |
211 |
Minic 1.26 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 06:04 |
212 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 07:08 |
213 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-11 08:13 |
214 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-11 09:17 |
215 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-11 10:22 |
216 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 11:26 |
217 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 12:31 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 13:36 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 14:40 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 15:45 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 16:49 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 17:54 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 18:58 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 20:03 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 21:08 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 22:12 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 23:17 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 00:21 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 01:26 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 02:30 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 03:35 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 04:40 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 05:44 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 06:49 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 07:53 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 08:58 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 10:02 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 11:07 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 12:12 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |