For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.922% |
0.078% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.075% |
77.653% |
14.816% |
5.330% |
1.572% |
0.423% |
|
99.869% |
|
0.109% |
0.020% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.003% |
11.743% |
25.889% |
25.558% |
17.105% |
11.060% |
|
91.358% |
|
5.944% |
2.148% |
0.523% |
0.027% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
7.076% |
25.627% |
19.240% |
16.903% |
12.772% |
|
81.618% |
|
8.990% |
5.292% |
2.868% |
1.224% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.459% |
14.984% |
17.684% |
18.921% |
16.861% |
|
69.909% |
|
14.586% |
9.355% |
4.910% |
1.230% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.388% |
7.011% |
12.564% |
16.479% |
18.778% |
|
55.220% |
|
18.462% |
15.103% |
8.680% |
2.501% |
0.034% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.357% |
9.416% |
12.718% |
14.767% |
15.501% |
|
53.759% |
|
14.756% |
13.119% |
11.010% |
7.216% |
0.140% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.214% |
1.445% |
4.064% |
8.012% |
13.312% |
|
27.047% |
|
17.000% |
21.554% |
22.210% |
11.694% |
0.495% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
0.029% |
0.652% |
2.187% |
4.353% |
7.344% |
|
14.565% |
|
12.088% |
18.177% |
23.674% |
28.310% |
3.183% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
0.003% |
0.160% |
0.655% |
1.888% |
3.949% |
|
6.655% |
|
8.043% |
14.969% |
24.938% |
41.637% |
3.758% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.022% |
0.263% |
1.185% |
6.161% |
90.224% |
1.981% |
0.159% |
0.005% |
|
|
12. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.315% |
39.348% |
32.862% |
19.709% |
6.144% |
0.622% |
13. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.659% |
36.301% |
32.006% |
19.779% |
10.091% |
1.164% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.113% |
19.155% |
24.489% |
33.300% |
18.251% |
4.692% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.061% |
3.040% |
9.663% |
24.380% |
57.153% |
5.703% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.172% |
0.821% |
2.827% |
8.361% |
87.819% |
Speculate Topple 0.7.4 – Gogobello 2.1_dev 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.934% |
0.066% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.064% |
77.586% |
14.826% |
5.348% |
1.581% |
0.466% |
|
99.871% |
|
0.112% |
0.012% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.002% |
11.886% |
26.198% |
25.501% |
16.586% |
10.774% |
|
90.947% |
|
5.964% |
2.378% |
0.639% |
0.072% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
7.050% |
24.980% |
18.727% |
16.726% |
12.609% |
|
80.092% |
|
9.062% |
6.111% |
3.252% |
1.482% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.464% |
14.908% |
17.269% |
18.346% |
16.361% |
|
68.348% |
|
14.121% |
10.358% |
5.702% |
1.471% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.424% |
7.066% |
12.507% |
16.002% |
17.968% |
|
53.967% |
|
17.888% |
14.607% |
10.098% |
3.433% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.274% |
9.132% |
12.348% |
14.497% |
14.813% |
|
52.064% |
|
14.346% |
13.002% |
11.733% |
8.819% |
0.036% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.203% |
1.521% |
3.769% |
7.534% |
12.443% |
|
25.470% |
|
15.852% |
19.758% |
24.937% |
13.857% |
0.126% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
0.047% |
1.222% |
3.889% |
6.947% |
10.646% |
|
22.751% |
|
15.324% |
20.330% |
21.571% |
19.864% |
0.160% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.147% |
0.642% |
1.781% |
3.920% |
|
6.490% |
|
7.331% |
13.441% |
21.951% |
49.284% |
1.503% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.112% |
1.718% |
94.280% |
3.536% |
0.335% |
0.016% |
|
|
12. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.272% |
37.972% |
32.976% |
19.838% |
6.265% |
0.677% |
13. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.268% |
35.811% |
31.841% |
19.646% |
10.157% |
1.277% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.209% |
19.401% |
24.343% |
32.947% |
18.509% |
4.591% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.138% |
3.097% |
9.740% |
24.751% |
56.817% |
5.457% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.183% |
0.765% |
2.802% |
8.252% |
87.998% |
Speculate Topple 0.7.4 – Gogobello 2.1_dev 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.948% |
0.052% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.051% |
77.843% |
14.703% |
5.231% |
1.598% |
0.465% |
|
99.891% |
|
0.095% |
0.013% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.001% |
11.539% |
25.443% |
25.775% |
17.428% |
11.315% |
|
91.501% |
|
5.925% |
2.081% |
0.453% |
0.040% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
7.113% |
25.824% |
19.791% |
16.966% |
12.485% |
|
82.179% |
|
8.770% |
5.108% |
2.793% |
1.144% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.467% |
15.300% |
17.583% |
18.980% |
17.109% |
|
70.439% |
|
14.512% |
9.121% |
4.761% |
1.163% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.397% |
7.293% |
12.693% |
16.640% |
18.964% |
|
55.987% |
|
18.617% |
15.007% |
8.156% |
2.206% |
0.027% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.365% |
9.481% |
12.895% |
15.096% |
15.386% |
|
54.223% |
|
14.892% |
12.750% |
10.908% |
7.087% |
0.140% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.217% |
1.532% |
3.918% |
8.092% |
13.581% |
|
27.340% |
|
17.508% |
21.472% |
21.667% |
11.525% |
0.488% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
0.006% |
0.282% |
1.439% |
3.345% |
6.550% |
|
11.622% |
|
11.432% |
18.768% |
25.614% |
30.857% |
1.707% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
0.001% |
0.142% |
0.675% |
1.855% |
4.145% |
|
6.818% |
|
8.245% |
15.552% |
24.850% |
40.512% |
4.023% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.128% |
0.797% |
5.466% |
92.301% |
1.255% |
0.049% |
|
|
|
12. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.868% |
39.427% |
33.174% |
19.649% |
6.225% |
0.657% |
13. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.361% |
36.718% |
32.196% |
19.574% |
9.943% |
1.208% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.044% |
19.288% |
24.079% |
33.626% |
18.345% |
4.618% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.031% |
3.150% |
9.718% |
24.375% |
57.245% |
5.481% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.162% |
0.784% |
2.776% |
8.242% |
88.036% |
Speculate Topple 0.7.4 – Gogobello 2.1_dev 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.946% |
0.054% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.054% |
77.794% |
14.717% |
5.240% |
1.627% |
0.458% |
|
99.890% |
|
0.096% |
0.011% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
11.477% |
25.340% |
26.140% |
17.354% |
11.186% |
|
91.497% |
|
6.204% |
1.949% |
0.334% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
7.301% |
26.109% |
19.897% |
17.293% |
13.214% |
|
83.814% |
|
8.526% |
4.543% |
2.263% |
0.824% |
0.030% |
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.455% |
15.123% |
17.967% |
19.785% |
17.998% |
|
72.328% |
|
15.082% |
8.001% |
3.705% |
0.861% |
0.023% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.400% |
7.223% |
12.645% |
16.467% |
19.458% |
|
56.193% |
|
19.569% |
15.658% |
7.151% |
1.354% |
0.075% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.303% |
9.797% |
13.050% |
15.698% |
15.844% |
|
55.692% |
|
15.833% |
13.052% |
9.939% |
5.149% |
0.335% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.215% |
1.524% |
3.998% |
8.526% |
14.371% |
|
28.634% |
|
18.734% |
24.164% |
19.039% |
8.253% |
1.176% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
0.001% |
0.141% |
0.671% |
1.957% |
4.381% |
|
7.151% |
|
8.849% |
17.412% |
29.033% |
30.232% |
7.323% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.026% |
0.392% |
1.293% |
3.084% |
|
4.795% |
|
6.982% |
14.307% |
25.188% |
39.203% |
9.516% |
0.009% |
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
|
0.006% |
|
0.125% |
0.903% |
3.345% |
14.105% |
81.099% |
0.413% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
12. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.300% |
40.633% |
33.227% |
19.326% |
5.905% |
0.606% |
13. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.105% |
36.780% |
31.940% |
19.775% |
10.170% |
1.230% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
18.974% |
24.530% |
33.660% |
18.236% |
4.589% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
3.020% |
9.461% |
24.390% |
57.435% |
5.687% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.171% |
0.838% |
2.849% |
8.254% |
87.888% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
20.0 |
23.88 |
0.80 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
17.0 |
20.30 |
0.90 |
2.20 |
0 |
86 |
10 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
16.0 |
18.55 |
0.95 |
4.14 |
0 |
8 |
32 |
26 |
17 |
10 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
14.5 |
18.31 |
1.03 |
4.63 |
0 |
4 |
28 |
23 |
17 |
12 |
8 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
15.5 |
17.87 |
0.97 |
5.43 |
0 |
1 |
14 |
18 |
20 |
18 |
15 |
8 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
14.0 |
17.45 |
1.09 |
6.24 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
12 |
16 |
18 |
17 |
13 |
10 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
14.5 |
17.44 |
0.94 |
6.22 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
12 |
17 |
21 |
20 |
14 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
14.5 |
16.72 |
0.96 |
7.62 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
12 |
18 |
26 |
22 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
16.11 |
1.08 |
8.58 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
10 |
18 |
26 |
31 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
13.5 |
15.84 |
0.97 |
9.05 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
15 |
26 |
43 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
10.5 |
13.41 |
1.07 |
10.91 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
91 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.0 |
10.03 |
0.97 |
12.75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
49 |
31 |
15 |
5 |
13 |
Counter 3.4 |
8.0 |
9.79 |
0.89 |
12.99 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
34 |
39 |
20 |
6 |
14 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.0 |
9.04 |
0.93 |
13.81 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
21 |
38 |
24 |
15 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
7.0 |
8.46 |
0.89 |
14.56 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
8 |
26 |
58 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.0 |
6.80 |
0.90 |
15.88 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-10 17:02 |
200 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-10 18:07 |
201 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-10 19:11 |
202 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-10 20:16 |
203 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-10 21:20 |
204 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-10 22:25 |
205 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-10 23:29 |
206 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 00:34 |
207 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 01:38 |
208 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 02:43 |
209 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 03:48 |
210 |
Counter 3.4 |
Cheese 2.1 |
2020-01-11 04:52 |
211 |
Minic 1.26 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 05:57 |
212 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 07:01 |
213 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-11 08:06 |
214 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-11 09:10 |
215 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-11 10:15 |
216 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 11:19 |
217 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 12:24 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 13:28 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 14:33 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 15:37 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 16:42 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 17:46 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 18:51 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 19:56 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 21:00 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 22:05 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 23:09 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 00:14 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 01:18 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 02:23 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 03:27 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 04:32 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 05:36 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 06:41 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 07:45 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 08:50 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 09:55 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 10:59 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 12:04 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |