For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.933% |
0.067% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.066% |
77.794% |
14.693% |
5.319% |
1.541% |
0.475% |
|
99.888% |
|
0.095% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.001% |
11.378% |
25.390% |
25.908% |
17.600% |
11.359% |
|
91.636% |
|
6.074% |
1.966% |
0.311% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
7.301% |
25.897% |
19.828% |
17.283% |
13.201% |
|
83.510% |
|
8.699% |
4.620% |
2.318% |
0.825% |
0.028% |
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.507% |
15.115% |
17.958% |
19.616% |
17.895% |
|
72.091% |
|
15.393% |
8.076% |
3.591% |
0.818% |
0.031% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.327% |
7.286% |
12.793% |
16.695% |
19.523% |
|
56.624% |
|
19.202% |
15.731% |
7.055% |
1.342% |
0.046% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.399% |
9.953% |
13.094% |
15.515% |
15.825% |
|
55.786% |
|
15.761% |
12.932% |
9.840% |
5.332% |
0.349% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.226% |
1.482% |
4.072% |
8.468% |
14.324% |
|
28.572% |
|
18.763% |
24.225% |
18.992% |
8.413% |
1.035% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
0.001% |
0.147% |
0.693% |
1.961% |
4.218% |
|
7.020% |
|
8.819% |
17.340% |
29.265% |
30.092% |
7.464% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.037% |
0.335% |
1.321% |
3.175% |
|
4.868% |
|
7.097% |
14.196% |
25.357% |
39.180% |
9.298% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
|
0.005% |
|
0.097% |
0.897% |
3.271% |
13.984% |
81.360% |
0.381% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
12. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.275% |
40.648% |
33.091% |
19.438% |
5.971% |
0.576% |
13. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.099% |
36.298% |
32.207% |
19.988% |
10.239% |
1.169% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
19.467% |
24.329% |
33.602% |
18.108% |
4.485% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
3.005% |
9.535% |
24.184% |
57.558% |
5.712% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.197% |
0.833% |
2.788% |
8.124% |
88.058% |
Speculate Winter 0.7.4 – PeSTO 2.210 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.935% |
0.065% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.061% |
74.741% |
16.575% |
6.393% |
1.716% |
0.415% |
|
99.901% |
|
0.086% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
0.001% |
12.648% |
38.366% |
22.293% |
14.508% |
7.034% |
|
94.850% |
|
3.211% |
1.324% |
0.496% |
0.117% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.003% |
10.402% |
21.811% |
29.179% |
19.251% |
11.709% |
|
92.355% |
|
5.613% |
1.751% |
0.268% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.554% |
14.516% |
17.703% |
20.753% |
18.507% |
|
73.033% |
|
14.940% |
7.745% |
3.477% |
0.768% |
0.037% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.296% |
5.635% |
13.231% |
18.276% |
20.345% |
|
57.783% |
|
19.606% |
14.826% |
6.479% |
1.240% |
0.066% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.108% |
1.862% |
6.251% |
13.178% |
17.418% |
|
38.817% |
|
19.556% |
17.665% |
14.742% |
8.570% |
0.650% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.186% |
1.076% |
4.061% |
9.185% |
16.568% |
|
31.076% |
|
19.417% |
22.900% |
17.670% |
7.909% |
1.028% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.131% |
0.586% |
1.863% |
4.561% |
|
7.141% |
|
9.757% |
17.943% |
28.553% |
29.328% |
7.278% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.028% |
0.303% |
1.270% |
3.435% |
|
5.036% |
|
7.663% |
14.882% |
24.938% |
38.039% |
9.436% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
|
0.008% |
|
0.151% |
0.951% |
3.377% |
14.014% |
81.131% |
0.359% |
0.009% |
|
|
|
12. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.275% |
40.171% |
33.286% |
19.688% |
5.938% |
0.640% |
13. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.083% |
36.910% |
32.036% |
19.759% |
10.004% |
1.208% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
19.348% |
24.194% |
33.481% |
18.324% |
4.644% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
2.992% |
9.647% |
24.311% |
57.587% |
5.458% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.214% |
0.828% |
2.761% |
8.147% |
88.050% |
Speculate Winter 0.7.4 – PeSTO 2.210 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.935% |
0.065% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.062% |
80.061% |
13.320% |
4.460% |
1.503% |
0.491% |
|
99.897% |
|
0.088% |
0.012% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.003% |
12.171% |
27.683% |
23.766% |
16.328% |
11.225% |
|
91.176% |
|
6.291% |
2.152% |
0.362% |
0.019% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
4.762% |
23.116% |
21.291% |
19.251% |
14.620% |
|
83.040% |
|
9.582% |
4.719% |
1.982% |
0.663% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.470% |
16.153% |
18.159% |
18.006% |
17.477% |
|
71.265% |
|
15.679% |
8.434% |
3.744% |
0.852% |
0.026% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.851% |
9.731% |
14.404% |
16.738% |
16.613% |
|
58.337% |
|
16.036% |
12.635% |
8.885% |
3.929% |
0.178% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.381% |
8.160% |
12.546% |
16.241% |
18.855% |
|
56.183% |
|
19.315% |
15.721% |
7.308% |
1.390% |
0.083% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.238% |
1.608% |
4.222% |
8.502% |
13.552% |
|
28.122% |
|
18.091% |
24.465% |
19.550% |
8.685% |
1.087% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
0.001% |
0.191% |
0.737% |
2.115% |
4.063% |
|
7.107% |
|
8.140% |
16.841% |
29.860% |
30.575% |
7.477% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.038% |
0.415% |
1.316% |
3.100% |
|
4.869% |
|
6.676% |
14.128% |
25.069% |
39.771% |
9.479% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
|
0.004% |
|
0.102% |
0.893% |
3.237% |
14.114% |
81.262% |
0.385% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
12. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.286% |
40.940% |
32.764% |
19.489% |
5.906% |
0.613% |
13. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.095% |
36.312% |
32.472% |
19.923% |
10.000% |
1.198% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
19.220% |
24.307% |
33.600% |
18.322% |
4.545% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
2.955% |
9.670% |
24.124% |
57.633% |
5.611% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.180% |
0.784% |
2.864% |
8.139% |
88.033% |
Speculate Winter 0.7.4 – PeSTO 2.210 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.941% |
0.058% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.057% |
80.761% |
12.981% |
4.189% |
1.419% |
0.455% |
|
99.862% |
|
0.120% |
0.017% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.002% |
12.099% |
28.046% |
22.408% |
16.325% |
11.559% |
|
90.439% |
|
6.858% |
2.320% |
0.366% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
3.687% |
21.966% |
22.447% |
17.614% |
13.061% |
|
78.775% |
|
9.605% |
6.466% |
3.762% |
1.364% |
0.028% |
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.374% |
15.580% |
18.464% |
19.010% |
17.330% |
|
71.758% |
|
15.532% |
8.254% |
3.612% |
0.822% |
0.022% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
1.362% |
10.687% |
15.024% |
19.495% |
20.509% |
|
67.077% |
|
16.362% |
9.351% |
5.066% |
2.084% |
0.060% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.411% |
8.604% |
12.111% |
15.477% |
18.293% |
|
54.896% |
|
19.396% |
16.755% |
7.502% |
1.377% |
0.074% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.246% |
1.939% |
4.241% |
7.465% |
11.768% |
|
25.659% |
|
17.686% |
25.900% |
20.679% |
9.009% |
1.067% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
0.002% |
0.156% |
0.713% |
1.875% |
4.134% |
|
6.880% |
|
7.875% |
16.317% |
30.159% |
31.164% |
7.605% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.040% |
0.403% |
1.320% |
2.887% |
|
4.650% |
|
6.481% |
13.757% |
25.505% |
40.088% |
9.514% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
|
0.004% |
|
0.085% |
0.863% |
3.348% |
14.074% |
81.242% |
0.376% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
12. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.281% |
40.989% |
32.915% |
19.382% |
5.855% |
0.577% |
13. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.097% |
36.478% |
32.278% |
19.962% |
10.012% |
1.173% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
19.010% |
24.585% |
33.694% |
18.166% |
4.538% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
2.937% |
9.409% |
24.134% |
57.787% |
5.730% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.205% |
0.805% |
2.828% |
8.180% |
87.982% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
20.0 |
23.88 |
0.81 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
17.0 |
20.30 |
0.91 |
2.20 |
0 |
86 |
10 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
16.0 |
18.55 |
0.94 |
4.11 |
0 |
8 |
32 |
27 |
17 |
10 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
14.5 |
18.33 |
1.03 |
4.55 |
0 |
4 |
29 |
24 |
18 |
12 |
8 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
15.5 |
17.85 |
0.97 |
5.39 |
0 |
1 |
14 |
18 |
21 |
19 |
16 |
8 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
14.0 |
17.45 |
1.08 |
6.14 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
12 |
17 |
19 |
18 |
13 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
14.5 |
17.44 |
0.95 |
6.11 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
12 |
17 |
22 |
21 |
14 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
14.5 |
16.71 |
0.96 |
7.48 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
13 |
20 |
29 |
19 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
13.5 |
15.84 |
0.97 |
8.91 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
8 |
18 |
33 |
28 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
15.47 |
0.98 |
9.36 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
12 |
25 |
45 |
11 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
11.5 |
14.06 |
0.97 |
10.74 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
15 |
80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.0 |
10.05 |
0.98 |
12.74 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
50 |
31 |
14 |
5 |
13 |
Counter 3.4 |
8.0 |
9.79 |
0.90 |
12.99 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
34 |
39 |
20 |
6 |
14 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.0 |
9.04 |
0.92 |
13.82 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
21 |
38 |
24 |
15 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
7.0 |
8.45 |
0.89 |
14.57 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
8 |
26 |
58 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.0 |
6.79 |
0.89 |
15.88 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-10 18:01 |
201 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-10 19:06 |
202 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-10 20:10 |
203 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-10 21:15 |
204 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-10 22:19 |
205 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-10 23:24 |
206 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 00:28 |
207 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 01:33 |
208 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 02:37 |
209 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 03:42 |
210 |
Counter 3.4 |
Cheese 2.1 |
2020-01-11 04:46 |
211 |
Minic 1.26 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 05:51 |
212 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 06:55 |
213 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-11 08:00 |
214 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-11 09:04 |
215 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-11 10:09 |
216 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 11:13 |
217 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 12:18 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 13:22 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 14:27 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 15:32 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 16:36 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 17:41 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 18:45 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 19:50 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 20:54 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 21:59 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 23:03 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 00:08 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 01:12 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 02:17 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 03:21 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 04:26 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 05:30 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 06:35 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 07:39 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 08:44 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 09:48 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 10:53 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 11:57 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |