For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.939% |
0.061% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.060% |
79.854% |
13.383% |
4.585% |
1.529% |
0.471% |
|
99.882% |
|
0.104% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.001% |
12.151% |
27.716% |
23.649% |
16.475% |
11.194% |
|
91.186% |
|
6.358% |
2.084% |
0.356% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
4.925% |
23.002% |
20.889% |
19.680% |
14.536% |
|
83.032% |
|
9.525% |
4.669% |
2.068% |
0.690% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.493% |
16.262% |
18.360% |
17.806% |
17.454% |
|
71.375% |
|
15.724% |
8.367% |
3.665% |
0.853% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.880% |
9.572% |
14.604% |
16.818% |
16.856% |
|
58.730% |
|
15.712% |
12.664% |
8.626% |
4.127% |
0.141% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.414% |
8.202% |
12.615% |
16.115% |
18.818% |
|
56.164% |
|
19.340% |
15.767% |
7.242% |
1.415% |
0.072% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.221% |
1.636% |
4.138% |
8.257% |
13.432% |
|
27.684% |
|
18.245% |
24.761% |
19.513% |
8.704% |
1.093% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
0.001% |
0.179% |
0.742% |
2.071% |
4.242% |
|
7.235% |
|
8.308% |
16.768% |
29.858% |
30.409% |
7.422% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.048% |
0.418% |
1.249% |
2.994% |
|
4.709% |
|
6.597% |
14.061% |
25.339% |
39.790% |
9.500% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
|
0.003% |
|
0.087% |
0.845% |
3.333% |
13.995% |
81.359% |
0.375% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
12. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.272% |
40.629% |
33.051% |
19.592% |
5.865% |
0.590% |
13. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.093% |
36.698% |
32.216% |
19.845% |
9.968% |
1.180% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
19.245% |
24.440% |
33.676% |
18.075% |
4.557% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
2.871% |
9.507% |
24.120% |
57.903% |
5.590% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.178% |
0.783% |
2.767% |
8.189% |
88.083% |
Speculate FabChess 1.13.5_dev – Winter 0.7.4 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.937% |
0.063% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.063% |
83.115% |
12.608% |
2.932% |
0.917% |
0.269% |
|
99.904% |
|
0.084% |
0.011% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
13.120% |
33.839% |
22.049% |
14.033% |
9.520% |
|
92.561% |
|
5.345% |
1.778% |
0.305% |
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.466% |
18.868% |
21.319% |
18.217% |
15.519% |
|
75.389% |
|
13.215% |
7.284% |
3.317% |
0.778% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.898% |
11.573% |
18.259% |
17.445% |
15.379% |
|
63.554% |
|
13.498% |
11.148% |
7.963% |
3.685% |
0.152% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
0.539% |
8.762% |
14.515% |
19.395% |
20.566% |
|
63.777% |
|
17.512% |
10.599% |
5.751% |
2.300% |
0.061% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.489% |
11.666% |
14.061% |
16.163% |
17.405% |
|
59.784% |
|
17.362% |
14.619% |
6.860% |
1.297% |
0.078% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.308% |
2.440% |
5.279% |
9.333% |
12.680% |
|
30.040% |
|
16.977% |
23.847% |
19.468% |
8.523% |
1.145% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
0.002% |
0.185% |
0.961% |
2.710% |
4.948% |
|
8.806% |
|
8.762% |
16.318% |
27.977% |
30.366% |
7.771% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.059% |
0.625% |
1.787% |
3.708% |
|
6.179% |
|
7.147% |
13.478% |
24.861% |
38.648% |
9.655% |
0.032% |
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
|
0.006% |
|
0.098% |
0.918% |
3.497% |
14.385% |
79.981% |
1.100% |
0.015% |
|
|
|
12. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
1.047% |
64.725% |
25.680% |
7.481% |
1.047% |
0.013% |
13. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.084% |
22.094% |
39.854% |
24.899% |
11.772% |
1.297% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
10.811% |
24.776% |
39.416% |
20.247% |
4.745% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
1.187% |
9.029% |
25.528% |
58.838% |
5.414% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.051% |
0.646% |
2.676% |
8.096% |
88.531% |
Speculate FabChess 1.13.5_dev – Winter 0.7.4 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.945% |
0.055% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.053% |
81.780% |
12.558% |
3.828% |
1.283% |
0.397% |
|
99.899% |
|
0.083% |
0.017% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.002% |
12.859% |
30.818% |
22.479% |
15.280% |
10.338% |
|
91.776% |
|
5.853% |
2.011% |
0.342% |
0.018% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
2.163% |
16.881% |
20.333% |
21.476% |
18.115% |
|
78.968% |
|
11.918% |
5.794% |
2.543% |
0.772% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.488% |
17.656% |
19.629% |
17.510% |
16.420% |
|
72.703% |
|
14.935% |
8.010% |
3.573% |
0.756% |
0.023% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.938% |
10.636% |
15.474% |
16.608% |
15.988% |
|
59.644% |
|
15.259% |
12.536% |
8.592% |
3.811% |
0.158% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.471% |
9.367% |
12.636% |
15.927% |
18.303% |
|
56.704% |
|
18.627% |
15.896% |
7.374% |
1.330% |
0.069% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.245% |
1.853% |
4.287% |
8.245% |
13.171% |
|
27.801% |
|
18.271% |
24.547% |
19.552% |
8.726% |
1.103% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
0.001% |
0.181% |
0.838% |
2.299% |
4.150% |
|
7.469% |
|
8.372% |
16.615% |
29.231% |
30.715% |
7.598% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.050% |
0.496% |
1.372% |
3.118% |
|
5.036% |
|
6.586% |
13.693% |
25.411% |
39.646% |
9.628% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.096% |
0.881% |
3.381% |
14.226% |
81.043% |
0.365% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
12. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.263% |
48.540% |
32.786% |
15.023% |
3.231% |
0.157% |
13. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.096% |
32.221% |
33.810% |
21.678% |
10.963% |
1.232% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
16.444% |
23.806% |
35.940% |
19.074% |
4.730% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
2.313% |
8.959% |
24.689% |
58.472% |
5.559% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.117% |
0.631% |
2.670% |
8.260% |
88.322% |
Speculate FabChess 1.13.5_dev – Winter 0.7.4 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.931% |
0.068% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.068% |
78.427% |
13.620% |
5.465% |
1.771% |
0.520% |
|
99.871% |
|
0.117% |
0.011% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
6.954% |
29.848% |
23.026% |
18.754% |
11.880% |
|
90.462% |
|
6.276% |
2.305% |
0.787% |
0.170% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.001% |
11.664% |
24.680% |
24.848% |
17.486% |
12.033% |
|
90.712% |
|
6.733% |
2.186% |
0.353% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.432% |
15.093% |
16.860% |
18.321% |
18.342% |
|
70.048% |
|
16.551% |
8.643% |
3.777% |
0.955% |
0.026% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.886% |
8.642% |
13.042% |
16.814% |
17.384% |
|
56.768% |
|
16.744% |
13.147% |
9.048% |
4.125% |
0.168% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.380% |
6.678% |
12.055% |
16.134% |
19.366% |
|
54.613% |
|
19.949% |
16.560% |
7.396% |
1.411% |
0.071% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.189% |
1.251% |
3.697% |
7.910% |
13.822% |
|
26.869% |
|
18.796% |
24.860% |
19.733% |
8.637% |
1.105% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.151% |
0.683% |
1.772% |
3.814% |
|
6.420% |
|
8.136% |
16.990% |
30.071% |
30.817% |
7.566% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.036% |
0.324% |
1.038% |
2.837% |
|
4.235% |
|
6.603% |
14.425% |
25.471% |
39.874% |
9.392% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
|
0.002% |
|
0.095% |
0.873% |
3.363% |
13.995% |
81.527% |
0.143% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.102% |
42.601% |
29.390% |
17.660% |
9.128% |
1.119% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.037% |
30.681% |
35.463% |
24.752% |
8.118% |
0.949% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
22.644% |
24.364% |
31.221% |
17.287% |
4.478% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.685% |
9.933% |
23.433% |
57.210% |
5.739% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.246% |
0.848% |
2.934% |
8.257% |
87.715% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
20.0 |
23.87 |
0.81 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
17.0 |
20.30 |
0.91 |
2.18 |
0 |
87 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
16.0 |
18.54 |
0.94 |
4.09 |
0 |
8 |
34 |
25 |
16 |
10 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
15.0 |
18.24 |
0.93 |
4.63 |
0 |
2 |
26 |
25 |
20 |
14 |
8 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
15.5 |
17.87 |
0.97 |
5.37 |
0 |
1 |
15 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
14.5 |
17.55 |
0.97 |
6.00 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
14 |
19 |
20 |
18 |
12 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
14.5 |
17.44 |
0.95 |
6.13 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
12 |
16 |
21 |
21 |
15 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
14.5 |
16.71 |
0.96 |
7.52 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
12 |
19 |
30 |
20 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
13.5 |
15.84 |
0.97 |
8.95 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
17 |
33 |
29 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
15.47 |
0.98 |
9.38 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
11 |
26 |
45 |
11 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
11.5 |
14.05 |
0.96 |
10.75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
15 |
80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.0 |
10.04 |
0.97 |
12.74 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
49 |
31 |
14 |
4 |
13 |
Counter 3.4 |
8.0 |
9.80 |
0.90 |
12.99 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
34 |
39 |
20 |
6 |
14 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.0 |
9.04 |
0.92 |
13.81 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
21 |
38 |
24 |
15 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
7.0 |
8.45 |
0.89 |
14.57 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
8 |
26 |
58 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.0 |
6.79 |
0.89 |
15.88 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-10 19:09 |
202 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-10 20:14 |
203 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-10 21:18 |
204 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-10 22:23 |
205 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-10 23:27 |
206 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 00:32 |
207 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 01:36 |
208 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 02:41 |
209 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 03:45 |
210 |
Counter 3.4 |
Cheese 2.1 |
2020-01-11 04:50 |
211 |
Minic 1.26 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 05:54 |
212 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 06:59 |
213 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-11 08:03 |
214 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-11 09:08 |
215 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-11 10:12 |
216 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 11:17 |
217 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 12:22 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 13:26 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 14:31 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 15:35 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 16:40 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 17:44 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 18:49 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 19:53 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 20:58 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 22:02 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 23:07 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 00:11 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 01:16 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 02:20 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 03:25 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 04:29 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 05:34 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 06:38 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 07:43 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 08:47 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 09:52 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 10:57 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 12:01 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |