For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.922% |
0.078% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.074% |
78.358% |
13.809% |
5.421% |
1.743% |
0.479% |
|
99.884% |
|
0.106% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
7.036% |
30.153% |
23.165% |
18.526% |
11.752% |
|
90.632% |
|
6.169% |
2.286% |
0.770% |
0.142% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.004% |
11.613% |
24.356% |
24.861% |
17.697% |
12.198% |
|
90.729% |
|
6.734% |
2.138% |
0.380% |
0.019% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.499% |
14.978% |
16.686% |
18.125% |
18.335% |
|
69.623% |
|
16.761% |
8.846% |
3.918% |
0.826% |
0.026% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.845% |
8.557% |
13.034% |
16.968% |
17.427% |
|
56.831% |
|
16.784% |
13.047% |
9.136% |
4.046% |
0.156% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.378% |
6.712% |
12.162% |
16.190% |
19.504% |
|
54.946% |
|
20.087% |
16.320% |
7.254% |
1.310% |
0.083% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.193% |
1.259% |
3.678% |
7.909% |
13.747% |
|
26.786% |
|
18.568% |
25.129% |
19.665% |
8.743% |
1.109% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.144% |
0.674% |
1.746% |
3.834% |
|
6.398% |
|
8.000% |
17.062% |
29.824% |
31.131% |
7.585% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.032% |
0.319% |
1.096% |
2.723% |
|
4.170% |
|
6.694% |
14.305% |
25.658% |
39.655% |
9.518% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
|
0.001% |
|
0.097% |
0.857% |
3.395% |
14.128% |
81.353% |
0.167% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.104% |
42.211% |
29.751% |
17.706% |
9.134% |
1.094% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.055% |
30.837% |
35.152% |
24.819% |
8.252% |
0.885% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
22.789% |
24.367% |
31.202% |
17.152% |
4.485% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
3.741% |
9.828% |
23.391% |
57.278% |
5.757% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.255% |
0.900% |
2.882% |
8.184% |
87.779% |
Speculate PeSTO 2.210 – Topple 0.7.4 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.932% |
0.067% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.067% |
77.906% |
13.585% |
5.513% |
2.092% |
0.662% |
|
99.825% |
|
0.150% |
0.024% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.001% |
11.472% |
23.213% |
23.436% |
17.668% |
13.287% |
|
89.077% |
|
8.041% |
2.506% |
0.368% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
6.944% |
27.719% |
22.171% |
19.609% |
13.399% |
|
89.842% |
|
6.960% |
2.400% |
0.703% |
0.095% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.558% |
13.916% |
17.957% |
19.754% |
18.092% |
|
71.277% |
|
14.884% |
9.284% |
4.313% |
0.240% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.474% |
14.140% |
15.851% |
17.551% |
19.426% |
|
68.442% |
|
19.134% |
8.658% |
3.177% |
0.576% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.376% |
6.154% |
10.946% |
14.754% |
19.094% |
|
51.324% |
|
21.637% |
18.721% |
7.450% |
0.824% |
0.044% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.202% |
1.132% |
3.469% |
6.996% |
12.316% |
|
24.115% |
|
19.556% |
29.304% |
19.476% |
6.590% |
0.959% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
0.001% |
0.140% |
0.657% |
1.543% |
3.385% |
|
5.726% |
|
7.255% |
18.705% |
35.487% |
25.856% |
6.971% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.033% |
0.337% |
|
0.370% |
|
2.295% |
9.369% |
24.911% |
48.460% |
14.595% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
|
0.002% |
|
0.088% |
1.029% |
4.114% |
17.351% |
77.251% |
0.158% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.097% |
42.232% |
29.740% |
17.690% |
9.146% |
1.095% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.051% |
30.999% |
35.322% |
24.595% |
8.099% |
0.934% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.012% |
22.721% |
24.377% |
31.488% |
16.931% |
4.471% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
3.657% |
9.634% |
23.320% |
57.553% |
5.831% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.233% |
0.920% |
2.907% |
8.271% |
87.669% |
Speculate PeSTO 2.210 – Topple 0.7.4 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.930% |
0.070% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.068% |
78.621% |
13.932% |
5.288% |
1.532% |
0.443% |
|
99.884% |
|
0.101% |
0.015% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
7.235% |
31.206% |
23.092% |
18.163% |
11.151% |
|
90.847% |
|
5.699% |
2.446% |
0.830% |
0.177% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.002% |
11.749% |
25.397% |
25.461% |
17.298% |
11.434% |
|
91.341% |
|
6.193% |
2.063% |
0.389% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.529% |
15.641% |
17.382% |
18.724% |
17.847% |
|
71.123% |
|
15.604% |
8.299% |
3.982% |
0.976% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.347% |
6.985% |
12.849% |
16.551% |
19.281% |
|
56.013% |
|
19.776% |
15.383% |
7.294% |
1.465% |
0.069% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.244% |
5.410% |
11.274% |
16.743% |
18.746% |
|
52.417% |
|
19.075% |
14.983% |
10.008% |
3.425% |
0.092% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.204% |
1.262% |
3.859% |
8.449% |
14.512% |
|
28.286% |
|
18.196% |
22.927% |
19.816% |
9.579% |
1.196% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
0.001% |
0.163% |
0.696% |
1.838% |
4.135% |
|
6.833% |
|
8.360% |
16.806% |
26.994% |
33.251% |
7.756% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.099% |
0.702% |
2.450% |
|
3.255% |
|
6.902% |
16.243% |
27.824% |
39.194% |
6.582% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
|
0.001% |
|
0.094% |
0.835% |
2.863% |
11.919% |
84.124% |
0.162% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.100% |
42.629% |
29.416% |
17.589% |
9.101% |
1.165% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.047% |
30.457% |
35.257% |
24.833% |
8.433% |
0.973% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
22.704% |
24.402% |
30.888% |
17.542% |
4.454% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
3.812% |
10.011% |
23.705% |
56.677% |
5.788% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.236% |
0.912% |
2.985% |
8.247% |
87.620% |
Speculate PeSTO 2.210 – Topple 0.7.4 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.936% |
0.064% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.064% |
78.751% |
14.108% |
5.197% |
1.410% |
0.387% |
|
99.917% |
|
0.069% |
0.013% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
7.171% |
32.774% |
24.696% |
17.572% |
9.264% |
|
91.477% |
|
4.899% |
2.451% |
0.921% |
0.252% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
11.790% |
26.090% |
27.182% |
17.384% |
10.264% |
|
92.710% |
|
5.069% |
1.766% |
0.420% |
0.035% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.604% |
16.601% |
18.386% |
19.627% |
16.682% |
|
72.900% |
|
12.671% |
8.334% |
4.785% |
1.282% |
0.028% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.378% |
7.109% |
13.402% |
18.424% |
19.995% |
|
59.308% |
|
17.817% |
13.060% |
7.303% |
2.398% |
0.114% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.032% |
1.740% |
5.218% |
10.859% |
14.893% |
|
32.742% |
|
18.172% |
18.570% |
17.587% |
12.373% |
0.556% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.209% |
1.256% |
3.955% |
9.243% |
16.215% |
|
30.878% |
|
17.773% |
18.845% |
19.792% |
11.526% |
1.186% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
0.001% |
0.136% |
1.171% |
3.444% |
7.640% |
|
12.392% |
|
14.086% |
20.945% |
25.075% |
24.919% |
2.583% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.186% |
0.793% |
2.037% |
4.656% |
|
7.672% |
|
9.355% |
15.405% |
21.907% |
37.691% |
7.970% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
|
0.004% |
|
0.089% |
0.611% |
2.209% |
9.524% |
87.393% |
0.169% |
|
0.001% |
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.102% |
42.600% |
29.320% |
17.477% |
9.339% |
1.162% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.053% |
30.150% |
35.265% |
24.960% |
8.575% |
0.997% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
22.780% |
24.413% |
30.698% |
17.482% |
4.618% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
4.053% |
10.121% |
23.959% |
56.169% |
5.692% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.248% |
0.881% |
2.905% |
8.435% |
87.531% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
20.0 |
23.88 |
0.80 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
17.0 |
20.30 |
0.90 |
2.19 |
0 |
86 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
16.0 |
18.56 |
0.82 |
4.14 |
0 |
4 |
35 |
27 |
18 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
16.0 |
18.54 |
0.94 |
4.20 |
0 |
8 |
30 |
26 |
18 |
11 |
6 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
15.5 |
17.84 |
0.97 |
5.50 |
0 |
1 |
13 |
16 |
20 |
20 |
18 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
14.5 |
17.56 |
0.97 |
6.08 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
13 |
19 |
21 |
19 |
12 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
14.5 |
17.45 |
0.95 |
6.21 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
11 |
16 |
21 |
22 |
15 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
14.5 |
16.71 |
0.96 |
7.57 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
12 |
19 |
31 |
20 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
13.5 |
15.84 |
0.97 |
8.97 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
18 |
33 |
29 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
15.47 |
0.98 |
9.39 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
11 |
26 |
45 |
11 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
11.5 |
14.06 |
0.97 |
10.74 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
15 |
80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Counter 3.4 |
8.0 |
9.79 |
0.90 |
12.89 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
42 |
34 |
18 |
6 |
13 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.0 |
9.73 |
0.87 |
12.96 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
38 |
35 |
19 |
7 |
14 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.0 |
9.05 |
0.92 |
13.73 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
22 |
36 |
23 |
15 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
7.0 |
8.44 |
0.89 |
14.54 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
9 |
25 |
57 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.0 |
6.80 |
0.90 |
15.87 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-10 20:51 |
203 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-10 21:55 |
204 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-10 23:00 |
205 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 00:05 |
206 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 01:10 |
207 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 02:14 |
208 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 03:19 |
209 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 04:24 |
210 |
Counter 3.4 |
Cheese 2.1 |
2020-01-11 05:28 |
211 |
Minic 1.26 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 06:33 |
212 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 07:38 |
213 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-11 08:42 |
214 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-11 09:47 |
215 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-11 10:52 |
216 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 11:57 |
217 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 13:01 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 14:06 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 15:11 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 16:15 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 17:20 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 18:25 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 19:30 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 20:34 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 21:39 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 22:44 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 23:48 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 00:53 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 01:58 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 03:03 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 04:07 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 05:12 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 06:17 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 07:21 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 08:26 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 09:31 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 10:35 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 11:40 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 12:45 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |