For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.916% |
0.084% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.080% |
77.851% |
13.618% |
5.591% |
2.093% |
0.610% |
|
99.843% |
|
0.133% |
0.023% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.004% |
11.454% |
23.219% |
23.635% |
17.652% |
13.171% |
|
89.135% |
|
7.948% |
2.563% |
0.347% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
7.022% |
27.498% |
22.161% |
19.735% |
13.486% |
|
89.902% |
|
6.901% |
2.472% |
0.649% |
0.075% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.622% |
14.099% |
17.738% |
19.963% |
18.014% |
|
71.436% |
|
14.589% |
9.319% |
4.376% |
0.276% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.415% |
14.058% |
15.857% |
17.337% |
19.569% |
|
68.236% |
|
19.208% |
8.813% |
3.146% |
0.577% |
0.020% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.371% |
6.093% |
10.985% |
14.494% |
19.058% |
|
51.001% |
|
21.859% |
18.770% |
7.486% |
0.839% |
0.045% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.181% |
1.256% |
3.451% |
7.091% |
12.379% |
|
24.358% |
|
19.812% |
28.999% |
19.324% |
6.588% |
0.919% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.159% |
0.582% |
1.597% |
3.364% |
|
5.702% |
|
7.140% |
18.668% |
35.470% |
25.995% |
7.025% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.038% |
0.348% |
|
0.386% |
|
2.309% |
9.353% |
25.006% |
48.274% |
14.672% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
|
0.001% |
|
0.101% |
1.020% |
4.195% |
17.369% |
77.141% |
0.166% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.104% |
42.152% |
29.750% |
17.699% |
9.182% |
1.113% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.058% |
31.408% |
35.115% |
24.364% |
8.095% |
0.960% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
22.328% |
24.519% |
31.387% |
17.202% |
4.559% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
3.669% |
9.656% |
23.469% |
57.251% |
5.949% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.277% |
0.953% |
3.081% |
8.270% |
87.419% |
Speculate Gogobello 2.1_dev – Marvin 3.5.0-a8 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.929% |
0.071% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.067% |
78.104% |
13.495% |
5.511% |
2.056% |
0.592% |
|
99.825% |
|
0.150% |
0.023% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
6.924% |
27.778% |
22.422% |
19.889% |
13.982% |
|
90.995% |
|
6.754% |
1.754% |
0.441% |
0.055% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.004% |
11.321% |
23.028% |
23.630% |
18.022% |
13.494% |
|
89.499% |
|
7.984% |
2.322% |
0.193% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.626% |
14.364% |
18.532% |
20.385% |
18.247% |
|
73.154% |
|
15.158% |
8.870% |
2.619% |
0.194% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.444% |
13.960% |
15.392% |
17.567% |
19.719% |
|
68.082% |
|
20.618% |
8.549% |
2.332% |
0.392% |
0.027% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.343% |
6.244% |
10.961% |
14.856% |
19.952% |
|
52.356% |
|
22.494% |
19.719% |
4.751% |
0.601% |
0.079% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.167% |
1.126% |
3.502% |
6.878% |
12.512% |
|
24.185% |
|
20.641% |
32.946% |
15.453% |
5.298% |
1.477% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.050% |
0.318% |
1.095% |
|
1.468% |
|
3.384% |
12.641% |
36.140% |
31.573% |
14.794% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.029% |
0.402% |
|
0.431% |
|
2.557% |
10.858% |
29.642% |
34.907% |
21.605% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
|
0.005% |
|
0.260% |
2.318% |
8.427% |
26.978% |
62.007% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
42.350% |
29.696% |
17.729% |
9.094% |
1.126% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
31.525% |
35.420% |
24.194% |
7.932% |
0.929% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
22.296% |
24.433% |
31.694% |
17.135% |
4.442% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.591% |
9.545% |
23.432% |
57.527% |
5.905% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.233% |
0.906% |
2.951% |
8.312% |
87.598% |
Speculate Gogobello 2.1_dev – Marvin 3.5.0-a8 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.937% |
0.063% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.063% |
77.902% |
13.657% |
5.475% |
2.150% |
0.598% |
|
99.845% |
|
0.131% |
0.023% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
11.540% |
23.556% |
23.740% |
17.609% |
13.013% |
|
89.458% |
|
7.733% |
2.480% |
0.325% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
6.868% |
27.534% |
22.267% |
19.738% |
13.486% |
|
89.893% |
|
6.892% |
2.413% |
0.703% |
0.099% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.661% |
13.944% |
17.967% |
19.776% |
18.046% |
|
71.394% |
|
14.808% |
9.103% |
4.419% |
0.275% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.427% |
13.939% |
16.073% |
17.488% |
19.694% |
|
68.621% |
|
19.169% |
8.551% |
3.071% |
0.575% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.359% |
6.108% |
10.741% |
14.735% |
19.525% |
|
51.468% |
|
21.937% |
18.620% |
7.221% |
0.705% |
0.049% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.179% |
1.208% |
3.355% |
7.226% |
12.445% |
|
24.413% |
|
19.925% |
29.804% |
18.816% |
6.155% |
0.887% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
0.001% |
0.054% |
0.382% |
1.243% |
2.856% |
|
4.536% |
|
7.073% |
19.168% |
39.436% |
26.869% |
2.918% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.035% |
0.337% |
|
0.372% |
|
2.324% |
9.519% |
24.031% |
50.312% |
13.442% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.319% |
1.977% |
15.006% |
82.614% |
0.075% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.054% |
42.386% |
29.486% |
17.840% |
9.105% |
1.129% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
31.064% |
35.208% |
24.603% |
8.182% |
0.928% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
22.515% |
24.588% |
31.196% |
17.243% |
4.454% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
3.711% |
9.862% |
23.540% |
57.172% |
5.712% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.249% |
0.855% |
2.821% |
8.298% |
87.777% |
Speculate Gogobello 2.1_dev – Marvin 3.5.0-a8 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.931% |
0.069% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.067% |
77.866% |
13.694% |
5.480% |
2.134% |
0.598% |
|
99.839% |
|
0.135% |
0.023% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.002% |
11.592% |
23.685% |
23.388% |
17.462% |
12.628% |
|
88.757% |
|
7.676% |
2.930% |
0.625% |
0.012% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
6.924% |
27.363% |
21.746% |
19.288% |
13.264% |
|
88.585% |
|
7.080% |
3.238% |
0.970% |
0.127% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.545% |
13.558% |
17.810% |
19.224% |
16.893% |
|
69.030% |
|
14.248% |
9.957% |
6.396% |
0.369% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.472% |
14.082% |
15.837% |
17.381% |
19.064% |
|
67.836% |
|
17.854% |
9.404% |
4.044% |
0.862% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.320% |
5.946% |
10.808% |
14.064% |
18.388% |
|
49.526% |
|
20.167% |
17.549% |
11.615% |
1.132% |
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.208% |
1.233% |
3.433% |
6.952% |
12.011% |
|
23.837% |
|
18.003% |
24.213% |
24.971% |
8.622% |
0.354% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
0.004% |
0.439% |
1.498% |
3.470% |
6.802% |
|
12.213% |
|
12.772% |
25.340% |
32.484% |
16.962% |
0.229% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.025% |
0.352% |
|
0.377% |
|
2.065% |
7.339% |
18.588% |
65.089% |
6.542% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.304% |
6.825% |
92.449% |
0.404% |
0.011% |
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.234% |
42.392% |
29.728% |
17.506% |
9.033% |
1.107% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.144% |
30.569% |
35.236% |
24.796% |
8.319% |
0.936% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.023% |
22.666% |
24.302% |
31.222% |
17.275% |
4.512% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
3.732% |
9.887% |
23.549% |
57.128% |
5.690% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.237% |
0.836% |
2.927% |
8.245% |
87.755% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
20.0 |
23.88 |
0.80 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
17.0 |
20.30 |
0.90 |
2.20 |
0 |
86 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
16.0 |
18.57 |
0.82 |
4.22 |
0 |
4 |
33 |
26 |
19 |
11 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
16.0 |
18.54 |
0.95 |
4.30 |
0 |
8 |
28 |
24 |
18 |
13 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
15.5 |
17.97 |
0.86 |
5.39 |
0 |
1 |
11 |
19 |
24 |
21 |
15 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
15.5 |
17.85 |
0.97 |
5.59 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
15 |
18 |
21 |
21 |
9 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
14.5 |
17.45 |
0.95 |
6.32 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
10 |
14 |
21 |
25 |
17 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
14.5 |
16.70 |
0.96 |
7.60 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
11 |
20 |
36 |
20 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
13.5 |
15.83 |
0.97 |
8.90 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
7 |
20 |
42 |
22 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
15.04 |
0.87 |
9.80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
22 |
53 |
18 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
11.5 |
14.06 |
0.97 |
10.68 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
19 |
75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Counter 3.4 |
8.0 |
9.79 |
0.89 |
12.89 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
42 |
34 |
18 |
6 |
13 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.0 |
9.75 |
0.87 |
12.94 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
39 |
35 |
19 |
6 |
14 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.0 |
9.04 |
0.92 |
13.75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
16 |
22 |
36 |
23 |
15 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
7.0 |
8.44 |
0.89 |
14.55 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
8 |
25 |
58 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.0 |
6.79 |
0.90 |
15.87 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-10 21:46 |
204 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-10 22:51 |
205 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-10 23:55 |
206 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 01:00 |
207 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 02:05 |
208 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 03:09 |
209 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 04:14 |
210 |
Counter 3.4 |
Cheese 2.1 |
2020-01-11 05:19 |
211 |
Minic 1.26 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 06:23 |
212 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 07:28 |
213 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-11 08:33 |
214 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-11 09:37 |
215 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-11 10:42 |
216 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 11:47 |
217 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 12:51 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 13:56 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 15:01 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 16:05 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 17:10 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 18:15 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 19:19 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 20:24 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 21:29 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 22:33 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 23:38 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 00:43 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 01:47 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 02:52 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 03:57 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 05:01 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 06:06 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 07:11 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 08:15 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 09:20 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 10:25 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 11:29 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 12:34 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |