For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.931% |
0.069% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.066% |
78.096% |
13.483% |
5.509% |
2.068% |
0.610% |
|
99.832% |
|
0.142% |
0.024% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.003% |
11.561% |
23.274% |
23.356% |
17.789% |
13.261% |
|
89.244% |
|
7.920% |
2.512% |
0.317% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
6.666% |
27.729% |
22.282% |
19.705% |
13.632% |
|
90.014% |
|
6.765% |
2.404% |
0.723% |
0.094% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.601% |
14.213% |
17.946% |
19.620% |
17.762% |
|
71.142% |
|
14.872% |
9.224% |
4.499% |
0.261% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.454% |
14.011% |
15.882% |
17.772% |
19.508% |
|
68.627% |
|
19.114% |
8.661% |
3.056% |
0.529% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.355% |
6.049% |
11.143% |
14.632% |
19.387% |
|
51.566% |
|
21.812% |
18.756% |
7.091% |
0.747% |
0.028% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.198% |
1.191% |
3.480% |
7.121% |
12.542% |
|
24.532% |
|
20.061% |
29.715% |
18.652% |
6.156% |
0.884% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.050% |
0.400% |
1.265% |
2.906% |
|
4.621% |
|
7.010% |
18.906% |
39.530% |
27.019% |
2.914% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.028% |
0.392% |
|
0.422% |
|
2.296% |
9.486% |
24.119% |
50.113% |
13.564% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.312% |
2.011% |
15.074% |
82.509% |
0.085% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.061% |
42.300% |
29.551% |
17.949% |
9.014% |
1.125% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.019% |
31.235% |
35.247% |
24.443% |
8.143% |
0.913% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
22.477% |
24.417% |
31.316% |
17.267% |
4.522% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
3.668% |
9.856% |
23.375% |
57.243% |
5.853% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.235% |
0.928% |
2.917% |
8.333% |
87.587% |
Speculate iCE 4.0.853 – Pirarucu 3.2.4 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.921% |
0.079% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.076% |
78.544% |
13.398% |
5.260% |
1.981% |
0.619% |
|
99.878% |
|
0.101% |
0.017% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
7.029% |
29.330% |
22.086% |
18.496% |
11.793% |
|
88.734% |
|
7.622% |
2.707% |
0.821% |
0.116% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.003% |
11.582% |
24.328% |
22.266% |
17.208% |
14.271% |
|
89.658% |
|
7.680% |
2.368% |
0.292% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.589% |
13.731% |
18.501% |
19.449% |
17.654% |
|
70.924% |
|
14.261% |
9.794% |
4.726% |
0.294% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.690% |
12.027% |
17.984% |
21.218% |
22.294% |
|
74.213% |
|
14.484% |
9.238% |
2.008% |
0.056% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
0.302% |
5.696% |
9.656% |
13.094% |
18.961% |
|
47.709% |
|
29.842% |
15.473% |
5.786% |
1.170% |
0.020% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.185% |
1.430% |
3.815% |
7.402% |
11.416% |
|
24.248% |
|
16.259% |
32.300% |
19.791% |
6.481% |
0.921% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.060% |
0.431% |
1.110% |
2.626% |
|
4.227% |
|
6.728% |
18.178% |
40.614% |
27.166% |
3.087% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.042% |
0.366% |
|
0.409% |
|
3.015% |
9.585% |
23.807% |
49.446% |
13.738% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.340% |
2.151% |
15.269% |
82.160% |
0.072% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.050% |
42.112% |
29.665% |
17.946% |
9.132% |
1.095% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.016% |
31.318% |
35.334% |
24.432% |
7.981% |
0.919% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
22.590% |
24.387% |
31.386% |
17.132% |
4.502% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
3.660% |
9.681% |
23.287% |
57.528% |
5.841% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.248% |
0.933% |
2.949% |
8.227% |
87.643% |
Speculate iCE 4.0.853 – Pirarucu 3.2.4 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.918% |
0.082% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.082% |
78.287% |
13.606% |
5.399% |
1.946% |
0.548% |
|
99.868% |
|
0.112% |
0.019% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
11.582% |
24.373% |
24.001% |
16.734% |
12.126% |
|
88.816% |
|
8.202% |
2.626% |
0.350% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
7.042% |
28.589% |
21.686% |
19.445% |
13.106% |
|
89.868% |
|
6.928% |
2.363% |
0.739% |
0.102% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.679% |
14.855% |
18.409% |
19.893% |
16.833% |
|
71.669% |
|
14.349% |
9.219% |
4.491% |
0.271% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.029% |
14.061% |
17.608% |
19.897% |
21.532% |
|
74.127% |
|
17.674% |
6.315% |
1.718% |
0.166% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.098% |
3.272% |
8.946% |
13.417% |
20.154% |
|
45.887% |
|
25.245% |
21.242% |
7.108% |
0.507% |
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.201% |
1.191% |
3.549% |
7.295% |
12.595% |
|
24.831% |
|
18.816% |
30.097% |
19.208% |
6.128% |
0.920% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.053% |
0.400% |
1.339% |
2.755% |
|
4.547% |
|
6.771% |
18.785% |
40.039% |
26.942% |
2.916% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.034% |
0.351% |
|
0.387% |
|
1.900% |
9.074% |
24.339% |
50.687% |
13.613% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.260% |
2.007% |
15.191% |
82.459% |
0.079% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.057% |
42.523% |
29.429% |
17.835% |
9.015% |
1.141% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.019% |
31.013% |
35.453% |
24.425% |
8.140% |
0.950% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
22.576% |
24.376% |
31.314% |
17.213% |
4.519% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
3.594% |
9.797% |
23.517% |
57.359% |
5.731% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.215% |
0.944% |
2.909% |
8.273% |
87.659% |
Speculate iCE 4.0.853 – Pirarucu 3.2.4 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.925% |
0.075% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.074% |
76.908% |
13.723% |
5.963% |
2.358% |
0.795% |
|
99.821% |
|
0.166% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.001% |
11.224% |
20.926% |
24.744% |
19.672% |
12.608% |
|
89.175% |
|
8.034% |
2.459% |
0.326% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
6.542% |
24.324% |
22.975% |
21.649% |
16.435% |
|
91.925% |
|
5.570% |
1.901% |
0.506% |
0.098% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
3.427% |
26.005% |
22.844% |
21.182% |
18.790% |
|
92.248% |
|
6.203% |
1.323% |
0.223% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.648% |
13.659% |
17.225% |
20.099% |
19.482% |
|
72.113% |
|
15.533% |
8.231% |
3.886% |
0.235% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
0.396% |
2.927% |
6.943% |
14.048% |
|
24.314% |
|
29.322% |
30.061% |
14.285% |
1.896% |
0.122% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.176% |
0.934% |
2.935% |
6.728% |
14.288% |
|
25.061% |
|
25.618% |
25.456% |
17.108% |
5.938% |
0.819% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.033% |
0.385% |
1.354% |
3.203% |
|
4.975% |
|
7.781% |
20.583% |
37.198% |
26.604% |
2.859% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.015% |
0.351% |
|
0.368% |
|
1.764% |
9.682% |
24.394% |
50.446% |
13.346% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
0.291% |
2.074% |
14.774% |
82.769% |
0.082% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.068% |
42.661% |
29.236% |
17.877% |
9.070% |
1.088% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
30.724% |
35.498% |
24.678% |
8.102% |
0.984% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
22.515% |
24.503% |
30.974% |
17.488% |
4.519% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.778% |
9.840% |
23.656% |
57.122% |
5.604% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.240% |
0.922% |
2.815% |
8.218% |
87.805% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
20.0 |
23.88 |
0.81 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
17.0 |
20.30 |
0.91 |
2.20 |
0 |
86 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
16.0 |
18.56 |
0.82 |
4.23 |
0 |
4 |
34 |
26 |
19 |
11 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
16.0 |
18.54 |
0.95 |
4.30 |
0 |
8 |
28 |
24 |
18 |
12 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
15.5 |
17.97 |
0.86 |
5.37 |
0 |
1 |
11 |
19 |
24 |
21 |
14 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
15.5 |
17.85 |
0.97 |
5.58 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
15 |
18 |
21 |
21 |
9 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
14.5 |
17.45 |
0.95 |
6.31 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
10 |
15 |
21 |
25 |
17 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
14.5 |
16.70 |
0.95 |
7.60 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
11 |
20 |
36 |
20 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
14.0 |
15.90 |
0.86 |
8.84 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
21 |
45 |
22 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
15.05 |
0.87 |
9.80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
20 |
57 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
12.0 |
14.00 |
0.85 |
10.78 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
17 |
81 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Counter 3.4 |
8.0 |
9.79 |
0.89 |
12.89 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
41 |
34 |
18 |
6 |
13 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.0 |
9.74 |
0.87 |
12.94 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
39 |
35 |
19 |
6 |
14 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.0 |
9.05 |
0.93 |
13.73 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
22 |
36 |
23 |
15 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
7.0 |
8.43 |
0.89 |
14.56 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
8 |
25 |
58 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.0 |
6.79 |
0.90 |
15.87 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-10 23:01 |
205 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 00:06 |
206 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 01:10 |
207 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 02:15 |
208 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 03:20 |
209 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 04:25 |
210 |
Counter 3.4 |
Cheese 2.1 |
2020-01-11 05:29 |
211 |
Minic 1.26 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 06:34 |
212 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 07:39 |
213 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-11 08:43 |
214 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-11 09:48 |
215 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-11 10:53 |
216 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 11:58 |
217 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 13:02 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 14:07 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 15:12 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 16:16 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 17:21 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 18:26 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 19:31 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 20:35 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 21:40 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 22:45 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 23:49 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 00:54 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 01:59 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 03:04 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 04:08 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 05:13 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 06:18 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 07:22 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 08:27 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 09:32 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 10:37 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 11:41 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 12:46 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |