For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.926% |
0.074% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.074% |
78.238% |
13.524% |
5.439% |
2.016% |
0.544% |
|
99.835% |
|
0.139% |
0.025% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
11.665% |
24.242% |
24.228% |
16.671% |
12.109% |
|
88.915% |
|
8.051% |
2.695% |
0.329% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
7.032% |
28.401% |
21.983% |
19.317% |
13.078% |
|
89.811% |
|
6.921% |
2.440% |
0.737% |
0.091% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.682% |
15.066% |
18.339% |
19.795% |
16.754% |
|
71.636% |
|
14.417% |
9.223% |
4.459% |
0.265% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.015% |
14.140% |
17.328% |
19.931% |
21.628% |
|
74.042% |
|
17.950% |
6.137% |
1.695% |
0.176% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.102% |
3.304% |
8.671% |
13.645% |
20.103% |
|
45.825% |
|
25.102% |
21.308% |
7.217% |
0.536% |
0.012% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.192% |
1.248% |
3.623% |
7.323% |
12.515% |
|
24.901% |
|
18.942% |
30.086% |
18.913% |
6.270% |
0.888% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.075% |
0.387% |
1.273% |
2.879% |
|
4.614% |
|
6.557% |
18.692% |
39.995% |
27.165% |
2.977% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.029% |
0.390% |
|
0.421% |
|
1.918% |
9.108% |
24.614% |
50.504% |
13.435% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.286% |
2.040% |
14.983% |
82.608% |
0.079% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.057% |
42.457% |
29.559% |
17.832% |
9.041% |
1.054% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
30.993% |
35.323% |
24.561% |
8.159% |
0.949% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
22.570% |
24.505% |
31.108% |
17.298% |
4.516% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
3.659% |
9.756% |
23.633% |
57.209% |
5.738% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.242% |
0.856% |
2.866% |
8.293% |
87.743% |
Speculate Demolito 20191229 – Asymptote 0.7_dev3 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.907% |
0.093% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.091% |
84.670% |
10.999% |
3.210% |
0.876% |
0.140% |
|
99.986% |
|
0.012% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.002% |
9.224% |
25.505% |
24.780% |
17.105% |
12.160% |
|
88.776% |
|
8.263% |
2.617% |
0.339% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
4.521% |
29.458% |
22.840% |
19.799% |
13.113% |
|
89.731% |
|
7.060% |
2.425% |
0.667% |
0.117% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.853% |
15.265% |
18.799% |
20.445% |
16.595% |
|
71.957% |
|
14.399% |
9.078% |
4.288% |
0.277% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
0.511% |
14.217% |
17.639% |
19.943% |
22.050% |
|
74.360% |
|
17.632% |
6.085% |
1.728% |
0.195% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.036% |
3.308% |
8.902% |
13.470% |
20.348% |
|
46.064% |
|
25.321% |
21.069% |
7.072% |
0.457% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.092% |
1.173% |
3.453% |
7.060% |
12.484% |
|
24.262% |
|
18.968% |
30.389% |
19.120% |
6.334% |
0.927% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.075% |
0.376% |
1.275% |
2.759% |
|
4.485% |
|
6.446% |
18.787% |
40.104% |
27.193% |
2.985% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.027% |
0.351% |
|
0.379% |
|
1.896% |
9.231% |
24.665% |
50.472% |
13.357% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.317% |
2.017% |
14.950% |
82.646% |
0.067% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.049% |
43.563% |
30.726% |
17.312% |
7.327% |
1.023% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
31.493% |
36.430% |
25.474% |
5.856% |
0.732% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
23.092% |
25.565% |
33.814% |
13.585% |
3.941% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.499% |
6.231% |
19.931% |
64.607% |
7.732% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.286% |
1.048% |
3.469% |
8.625% |
86.572% |
Speculate Demolito 20191229 – Asymptote 0.7_dev3 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.987% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.012% |
71.944% |
17.073% |
7.231% |
2.794% |
0.756% |
|
99.810% |
|
0.178% |
0.012% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.001% |
14.747% |
22.514% |
23.044% |
16.670% |
12.068% |
|
89.044% |
|
8.068% |
2.567% |
0.316% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
9.147% |
27.032% |
21.499% |
19.021% |
12.956% |
|
89.655% |
|
6.959% |
2.484% |
0.773% |
0.129% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.359% |
14.793% |
18.062% |
19.847% |
16.596% |
|
71.657% |
|
14.422% |
9.201% |
4.471% |
0.248% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.389% |
13.943% |
17.493% |
19.788% |
21.820% |
|
74.433% |
|
17.494% |
6.141% |
1.773% |
0.159% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.129% |
3.303% |
8.750% |
13.563% |
19.996% |
|
45.741% |
|
25.128% |
21.343% |
7.241% |
0.533% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.272% |
1.279% |
3.514% |
7.029% |
12.580% |
|
24.674% |
|
19.220% |
29.985% |
18.913% |
6.367% |
0.841% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.063% |
0.405% |
1.243% |
2.852% |
|
4.563% |
|
6.542% |
18.651% |
39.783% |
27.472% |
2.989% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.045% |
0.376% |
|
0.423% |
|
1.987% |
9.305% |
24.658% |
50.337% |
13.290% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.311% |
2.072% |
14.750% |
82.770% |
0.094% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.066% |
41.661% |
28.282% |
17.409% |
11.316% |
1.266% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.028% |
30.860% |
34.227% |
23.463% |
10.200% |
1.222% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
22.293% |
23.396% |
27.995% |
21.114% |
5.201% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.873% |
13.388% |
28.996% |
50.071% |
2.672% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.219% |
0.706% |
2.137% |
7.299% |
89.639% |
Speculate Demolito 20191229 – Asymptote 0.7_dev3 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
55.977% |
22.257% |
12.632% |
6.192% |
2.151% |
|
99.209% |
|
0.652% |
0.132% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
20.121% |
20.524% |
21.326% |
15.862% |
11.565% |
|
89.398% |
|
7.801% |
2.456% |
0.341% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
15.752% |
24.122% |
19.676% |
17.622% |
12.626% |
|
89.798% |
|
6.904% |
2.418% |
0.775% |
0.105% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
4.223% |
14.607% |
17.131% |
19.325% |
16.181% |
|
71.467% |
|
14.328% |
9.239% |
4.688% |
0.276% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
3.039% |
13.537% |
16.552% |
19.502% |
21.738% |
|
74.368% |
|
17.519% |
6.188% |
1.737% |
0.188% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.389% |
3.340% |
8.448% |
12.961% |
19.883% |
|
45.021% |
|
25.035% |
21.903% |
7.466% |
0.556% |
0.019% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.499% |
1.548% |
3.862% |
7.253% |
12.586% |
|
25.748% |
|
19.040% |
29.629% |
18.658% |
6.107% |
0.818% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.065% |
0.373% |
1.243% |
2.877% |
|
4.558% |
|
6.826% |
18.739% |
39.852% |
27.171% |
2.854% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.040% |
0.393% |
|
0.433% |
|
1.895% |
9.001% |
24.496% |
50.930% |
13.245% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.295% |
1.980% |
14.663% |
82.949% |
0.112% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.061% |
37.692% |
26.119% |
19.362% |
15.268% |
1.498% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.029% |
29.340% |
30.415% |
22.689% |
16.024% |
1.503% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.019% |
12.122% |
22.033% |
33.031% |
32.197% |
0.598% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
20.626% |
20.950% |
23.516% |
28.866% |
6.038% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.108% |
0.482% |
1.402% |
7.645% |
90.363% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
20.0 |
23.88 |
0.80 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
17.0 |
20.30 |
0.91 |
2.20 |
0 |
86 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
16.0 |
18.56 |
0.83 |
4.21 |
0 |
4 |
34 |
26 |
18 |
11 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
16.0 |
18.55 |
0.95 |
4.27 |
0 |
8 |
29 |
25 |
18 |
11 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
15.5 |
17.97 |
0.86 |
5.36 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
19 |
24 |
20 |
15 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
16.0 |
17.91 |
0.87 |
5.42 |
0 |
1 |
13 |
16 |
20 |
23 |
19 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
15.0 |
17.38 |
0.84 |
6.49 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
8 |
13 |
22 |
29 |
19 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
14.5 |
16.70 |
0.96 |
7.60 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
11 |
18 |
37 |
21 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
14.0 |
15.90 |
0.86 |
8.86 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
21 |
46 |
22 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
15.05 |
0.87 |
9.81 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
21 |
57 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
12.0 |
14.00 |
0.85 |
10.78 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
17 |
81 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Counter 3.4 |
8.0 |
9.79 |
0.90 |
12.90 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
41 |
34 |
18 |
6 |
13 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.0 |
9.74 |
0.87 |
12.94 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
39 |
35 |
19 |
6 |
14 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.0 |
9.05 |
0.92 |
13.74 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
22 |
36 |
23 |
15 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
7.0 |
8.44 |
0.89 |
14.55 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
9 |
25 |
58 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.0 |
6.79 |
0.89 |
15.88 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-11 00:14 |
206 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 01:19 |
207 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 02:24 |
208 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 03:28 |
209 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 04:33 |
210 |
Counter 3.4 |
Cheese 2.1 |
2020-01-11 05:38 |
211 |
Minic 1.26 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 06:43 |
212 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 07:47 |
213 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-11 08:52 |
214 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-11 09:57 |
215 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-11 11:02 |
216 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 12:06 |
217 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 13:11 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 14:16 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 15:21 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 16:25 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 17:30 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 18:35 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 19:40 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 20:44 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 21:49 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 22:54 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 23:59 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 01:03 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 02:08 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 03:13 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 04:18 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 05:22 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 06:27 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 07:32 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 08:37 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 09:41 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 10:46 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 11:51 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 12:56 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |