For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.979% |
0.021% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.021% |
71.880% |
16.989% |
7.333% |
2.935% |
0.676% |
|
99.834% |
|
0.153% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
14.854% |
22.562% |
23.199% |
16.750% |
11.753% |
|
89.118% |
|
7.978% |
2.549% |
0.353% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
9.169% |
27.119% |
21.280% |
19.179% |
13.116% |
|
89.863% |
|
6.925% |
2.344% |
0.768% |
0.100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.340% |
14.797% |
18.218% |
19.738% |
16.607% |
|
71.700% |
|
14.466% |
9.114% |
4.445% |
0.274% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.311% |
13.901% |
17.253% |
19.725% |
21.831% |
|
74.021% |
|
17.893% |
6.168% |
1.752% |
0.166% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.161% |
3.307% |
8.747% |
13.204% |
20.180% |
|
45.599% |
|
25.150% |
21.552% |
7.168% |
0.521% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.264% |
1.264% |
3.600% |
7.207% |
12.593% |
|
24.928% |
|
19.063% |
29.915% |
18.979% |
6.204% |
0.911% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.061% |
0.370% |
1.231% |
2.897% |
|
4.559% |
|
6.487% |
18.922% |
39.891% |
27.231% |
2.910% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.031% |
0.347% |
|
0.378% |
|
1.882% |
9.149% |
24.535% |
50.783% |
13.273% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.274% |
2.109% |
14.719% |
82.819% |
0.076% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.065% |
42.043% |
28.173% |
17.373% |
11.037% |
1.309% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
30.626% |
34.309% |
23.607% |
10.323% |
1.124% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
22.135% |
23.494% |
28.221% |
20.842% |
5.308% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.907% |
13.273% |
28.747% |
50.459% |
2.614% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.213% |
0.751% |
2.052% |
7.339% |
89.645% |
Speculate Defenchess 2.3_dev – Igel 2.3.0 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.999% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.001% |
72.399% |
16.929% |
7.327% |
2.624% |
0.614% |
|
99.894% |
|
0.099% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
14.422% |
22.879% |
23.551% |
16.967% |
11.964% |
|
89.783% |
|
8.013% |
1.939% |
0.262% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
9.065% |
27.233% |
21.623% |
19.245% |
13.138% |
|
90.304% |
|
6.890% |
2.216% |
0.506% |
0.084% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.494% |
15.103% |
18.522% |
20.518% |
16.826% |
|
73.463% |
|
14.160% |
8.081% |
4.002% |
0.290% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.431% |
14.006% |
17.788% |
20.500% |
22.502% |
|
76.227% |
|
17.331% |
4.946% |
1.369% |
0.127% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.150% |
3.417% |
9.029% |
13.992% |
21.261% |
|
47.849% |
|
26.339% |
18.280% |
6.993% |
0.521% |
0.018% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.038% |
0.362% |
1.748% |
4.763% |
10.136% |
|
17.047% |
|
17.818% |
31.555% |
23.588% |
8.660% |
1.332% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.071% |
0.410% |
1.338% |
3.125% |
|
4.944% |
|
7.155% |
21.507% |
36.967% |
26.487% |
2.940% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.053% |
0.434% |
|
0.489% |
|
2.189% |
11.032% |
23.940% |
48.948% |
13.402% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.437% |
2.373% |
14.880% |
82.231% |
0.073% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.049% |
41.620% |
28.351% |
17.481% |
11.213% |
1.286% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.022% |
30.729% |
34.174% |
23.399% |
10.444% |
1.232% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
22.350% |
23.443% |
28.040% |
21.080% |
5.085% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.020% |
13.269% |
28.912% |
50.074% |
2.725% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.208% |
0.763% |
2.168% |
7.189% |
89.672% |
Speculate Defenchess 2.3_dev – Igel 2.3.0 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.985% |
0.015% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.014% |
71.458% |
17.245% |
7.467% |
2.863% |
0.765% |
|
99.812% |
|
0.177% |
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.001% |
15.021% |
22.677% |
23.040% |
16.258% |
11.799% |
|
88.796% |
|
7.977% |
2.841% |
0.384% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
9.374% |
26.985% |
21.285% |
18.882% |
12.965% |
|
89.491% |
|
7.040% |
2.514% |
0.835% |
0.120% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.262% |
14.650% |
17.664% |
19.381% |
16.377% |
|
70.334% |
|
14.386% |
10.052% |
4.952% |
0.275% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.501% |
13.821% |
17.261% |
19.452% |
21.319% |
|
73.354% |
|
17.534% |
6.921% |
2.003% |
0.188% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.148% |
3.147% |
8.380% |
12.896% |
18.832% |
|
43.403% |
|
23.835% |
24.484% |
7.736% |
0.523% |
0.019% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.221% |
1.412% |
4.507% |
9.017% |
15.059% |
|
30.216% |
|
21.326% |
29.790% |
15.028% |
3.380% |
0.260% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.063% |
0.396% |
1.225% |
2.582% |
|
4.266% |
|
5.960% |
16.232% |
42.571% |
28.048% |
2.923% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.026% |
0.302% |
|
0.328% |
|
1.764% |
6.995% |
24.948% |
52.410% |
13.555% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.160% |
1.543% |
15.054% |
83.162% |
0.080% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.066% |
41.881% |
28.334% |
17.348% |
11.051% |
1.320% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
30.467% |
34.266% |
23.591% |
10.414% |
1.251% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
22.460% |
23.468% |
27.989% |
20.893% |
5.187% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.915% |
13.193% |
28.836% |
50.275% |
2.781% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.197% |
0.739% |
2.236% |
7.367% |
89.461% |
Speculate Defenchess 2.3_dev – Igel 2.3.0 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.892% |
0.107% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.103% |
70.379% |
17.051% |
7.627% |
3.375% |
1.161% |
|
99.696% |
|
0.280% |
0.024% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.005% |
15.036% |
21.964% |
21.852% |
16.171% |
11.828% |
|
86.856% |
|
8.238% |
4.391% |
0.507% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
9.298% |
26.566% |
20.742% |
18.155% |
12.866% |
|
87.627% |
|
7.790% |
3.181% |
1.258% |
0.144% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.453% |
13.613% |
16.277% |
18.161% |
19.783% |
|
69.287% |
|
18.138% |
9.633% |
2.677% |
0.265% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.239% |
13.245% |
16.241% |
17.557% |
16.661% |
|
65.943% |
|
15.734% |
12.367% |
5.665% |
0.288% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
1.323% |
4.521% |
9.386% |
14.331% |
18.795% |
|
48.356% |
|
20.852% |
23.088% |
6.827% |
0.852% |
0.025% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.165% |
2.990% |
7.550% |
11.245% |
16.534% |
|
38.484% |
|
22.560% |
29.894% |
8.496% |
0.550% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.049% |
0.325% |
0.991% |
2.178% |
|
3.543% |
|
5.231% |
12.616% |
47.247% |
28.436% |
2.927% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
0.194% |
|
0.208% |
|
1.177% |
4.743% |
26.000% |
54.390% |
13.482% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.063% |
1.323% |
15.067% |
83.434% |
0.112% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.079% |
42.132% |
28.294% |
17.211% |
11.020% |
1.264% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.029% |
30.347% |
34.416% |
23.713% |
10.310% |
1.185% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
22.295% |
23.452% |
28.088% |
20.937% |
5.223% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.899% |
13.072% |
28.889% |
50.405% |
2.735% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.215% |
0.765% |
2.099% |
7.328% |
89.593% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
20.0 |
23.88 |
0.80 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
17.5 |
20.02 |
0.82 |
2.26 |
0 |
82 |
12 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
16.0 |
18.56 |
0.83 |
4.19 |
0 |
5 |
34 |
26 |
18 |
10 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
16.0 |
18.55 |
0.95 |
4.24 |
0 |
11 |
27 |
25 |
17 |
11 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
15.5 |
17.96 |
0.85 |
5.38 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
19 |
23 |
20 |
15 |
7 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
16.0 |
17.92 |
0.86 |
5.40 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
16 |
20 |
23 |
19 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
15.0 |
17.37 |
0.84 |
6.50 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
8 |
13 |
22 |
29 |
19 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
14.5 |
16.71 |
0.96 |
7.58 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
11 |
18 |
37 |
20 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
14.0 |
15.90 |
0.86 |
8.86 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
21 |
46 |
22 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
15.05 |
0.87 |
9.81 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
21 |
57 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
12.0 |
13.99 |
0.85 |
10.78 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
16 |
81 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Counter 3.4 |
8.0 |
9.80 |
0.90 |
12.93 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
41 |
33 |
18 |
8 |
13 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.0 |
9.74 |
0.87 |
13.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
38 |
34 |
19 |
9 |
14 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.0 |
9.05 |
0.92 |
13.82 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
16 |
21 |
31 |
29 |
15 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
7.5 |
8.72 |
0.80 |
14.34 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
12 |
31 |
50 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.0 |
6.80 |
0.90 |
15.91 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-11 01:16 |
207 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 02:21 |
208 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 03:26 |
209 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 04:30 |
210 |
Counter 3.4 |
Cheese 2.1 |
2020-01-11 05:35 |
211 |
Minic 1.26 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 06:40 |
212 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 07:44 |
213 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-11 08:49 |
214 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-11 09:54 |
215 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-11 10:59 |
216 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 12:03 |
217 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 13:08 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 14:13 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 15:18 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 16:22 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 17:27 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 18:32 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 19:37 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 20:41 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 21:46 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 22:51 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 23:56 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 01:00 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 02:05 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 03:10 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 04:15 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 05:19 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 06:24 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 07:29 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 08:33 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 09:38 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 10:43 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 11:48 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 12:52 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |