For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.994% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.006% |
71.384% |
17.144% |
7.584% |
2.948% |
0.751% |
|
99.817% |
|
0.165% |
0.018% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
15.093% |
22.722% |
23.130% |
16.362% |
11.779% |
|
89.086% |
|
7.743% |
2.804% |
0.361% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
9.418% |
26.954% |
21.235% |
18.782% |
12.899% |
|
89.288% |
|
7.118% |
2.546% |
0.923% |
0.125% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.274% |
14.618% |
17.606% |
19.175% |
16.375% |
|
70.048% |
|
14.549% |
10.185% |
4.937% |
0.279% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.467% |
13.845% |
17.352% |
19.507% |
21.195% |
|
73.366% |
|
17.543% |
6.763% |
2.140% |
0.188% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.156% |
3.225% |
8.276% |
12.735% |
18.947% |
|
43.339% |
|
23.897% |
24.311% |
7.933% |
0.508% |
0.012% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.202% |
1.446% |
4.406% |
9.202% |
15.042% |
|
30.298% |
|
21.303% |
29.652% |
15.074% |
3.435% |
0.238% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.046% |
0.411% |
1.256% |
2.690% |
|
4.403% |
|
6.081% |
16.340% |
42.375% |
27.855% |
2.946% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.033% |
0.322% |
|
0.355% |
|
1.600% |
7.188% |
24.738% |
52.693% |
13.426% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.193% |
1.519% |
14.911% |
83.284% |
0.091% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.065% |
42.015% |
28.161% |
17.358% |
11.123% |
1.278% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.024% |
30.590% |
34.365% |
23.620% |
10.237% |
1.164% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
22.096% |
23.756% |
27.993% |
20.789% |
5.363% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.994% |
13.008% |
28.926% |
50.476% |
2.596% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.214% |
0.709% |
2.103% |
7.375% |
89.599% |
Speculate Cheese 2.1 – Minic 1.26 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.988% |
0.012% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.012% |
78.455% |
13.757% |
5.007% |
2.001% |
0.612% |
|
99.844% |
|
0.141% |
0.015% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
11.088% |
31.353% |
21.601% |
15.968% |
10.950% |
|
90.960% |
|
5.765% |
2.302% |
0.846% |
0.127% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
3.330% |
18.872% |
18.497% |
17.215% |
14.824% |
|
72.738% |
|
12.866% |
9.260% |
4.888% |
0.245% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.933% |
18.314% |
18.239% |
18.231% |
19.773% |
|
76.490% |
|
15.135% |
6.236% |
1.917% |
0.222% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
4.686% |
11.872% |
18.817% |
19.936% |
18.164% |
|
73.475% |
|
16.545% |
8.428% |
1.528% |
0.024% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.179% |
3.676% |
10.882% |
15.158% |
17.652% |
|
47.547% |
|
21.488% |
22.689% |
7.725% |
0.537% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.317% |
2.033% |
6.391% |
10.043% |
14.639% |
|
33.423% |
|
19.931% |
28.097% |
14.908% |
3.363% |
0.278% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.123% |
0.563% |
1.394% |
2.969% |
|
5.049% |
|
6.469% |
15.868% |
41.512% |
28.167% |
2.935% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.054% |
0.417% |
|
0.474% |
|
1.660% |
6.917% |
25.065% |
52.095% |
13.789% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.188% |
1.611% |
15.220% |
82.915% |
0.066% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.047% |
41.370% |
27.806% |
16.793% |
10.571% |
3.413% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
30.552% |
33.592% |
22.800% |
10.021% |
3.020% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
22.244% |
22.821% |
26.543% |
18.062% |
10.326% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.884% |
13.184% |
27.716% |
46.117% |
8.099% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.884% |
2.597% |
6.148% |
15.229% |
75.142% |
Speculate Cheese 2.1 – Minic 1.26 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.984% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.016% |
74.742% |
15.158% |
6.459% |
2.691% |
0.737% |
|
99.803% |
|
0.180% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.341% |
29.139% |
20.419% |
17.662% |
12.463% |
|
90.024% |
|
6.514% |
2.476% |
0.851% |
0.135% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
10.124% |
17.963% |
22.954% |
19.330% |
14.723% |
|
85.094% |
|
10.780% |
3.810% |
0.316% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.701% |
16.472% |
17.551% |
18.136% |
15.825% |
|
70.685% |
|
14.156% |
10.005% |
4.872% |
0.279% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.666% |
16.048% |
17.561% |
18.723% |
20.383% |
|
74.381% |
|
16.704% |
6.650% |
2.071% |
0.194% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.157% |
3.491% |
9.483% |
13.196% |
18.273% |
|
44.600% |
|
22.808% |
24.174% |
7.874% |
0.531% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.253% |
1.655% |
5.161% |
9.046% |
14.658% |
|
30.773% |
|
21.205% |
29.510% |
14.982% |
3.256% |
0.274% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.074% |
0.411% |
1.186% |
2.602% |
|
4.273% |
|
6.063% |
16.058% |
42.442% |
28.216% |
2.948% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.030% |
0.336% |
|
0.367% |
|
1.590% |
7.123% |
25.014% |
52.502% |
13.404% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.177% |
1.578% |
14.887% |
83.258% |
0.100% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.071% |
42.159% |
27.914% |
17.213% |
11.009% |
1.634% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.024% |
30.550% |
34.333% |
23.418% |
10.252% |
1.423% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
22.068% |
23.630% |
27.686% |
20.114% |
6.497% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.948% |
13.298% |
28.971% |
49.574% |
3.209% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.175% |
0.825% |
2.712% |
9.051% |
87.237% |
Speculate Cheese 2.1 – Minic 1.26 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.991% |
0.009% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.009% |
68.058% |
19.138% |
8.519% |
3.269% |
0.803% |
|
99.796% |
|
0.187% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
20.103% |
27.499% |
24.421% |
14.107% |
8.598% |
|
94.728% |
|
4.404% |
0.832% |
0.036% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
8.557% |
25.107% |
21.349% |
20.157% |
13.627% |
|
88.797% |
|
7.551% |
2.605% |
0.931% |
0.116% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.830% |
12.410% |
17.137% |
20.271% |
17.095% |
|
68.743% |
|
15.336% |
10.526% |
5.108% |
0.284% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.165% |
11.589% |
17.230% |
20.230% |
21.984% |
|
72.198% |
|
18.359% |
7.172% |
2.067% |
0.204% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.135% |
3.017% |
7.293% |
12.025% |
19.428% |
|
41.898% |
|
24.329% |
25.154% |
8.085% |
0.524% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.143% |
1.213% |
3.744% |
8.803% |
15.525% |
|
29.428% |
|
21.942% |
29.858% |
15.234% |
3.263% |
0.275% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.027% |
0.307% |
1.115% |
2.655% |
|
4.104% |
|
6.250% |
16.511% |
42.521% |
27.693% |
2.921% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.023% |
0.285% |
|
0.308% |
|
1.642% |
7.182% |
24.431% |
53.021% |
13.416% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.143% |
1.587% |
14.895% |
83.279% |
0.096% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.069% |
42.190% |
28.332% |
17.522% |
11.287% |
0.600% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.023% |
30.594% |
34.532% |
23.890% |
10.480% |
0.481% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
22.204% |
23.815% |
28.676% |
22.086% |
3.215% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.891% |
13.178% |
29.189% |
51.840% |
0.902% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.025% |
0.143% |
0.723% |
4.307% |
94.802% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
20.5 |
23.64 |
0.70 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
17.5 |
20.01 |
0.82 |
2.27 |
0 |
81 |
13 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
16.0 |
18.56 |
0.95 |
4.22 |
0 |
11 |
27 |
24 |
17 |
11 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
16.0 |
18.56 |
0.82 |
4.20 |
0 |
5 |
33 |
26 |
18 |
10 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
15.5 |
17.95 |
0.86 |
5.42 |
0 |
1 |
11 |
19 |
23 |
19 |
15 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
16.0 |
17.91 |
0.86 |
5.45 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
16 |
20 |
22 |
19 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
15.0 |
17.36 |
0.84 |
6.58 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
7 |
13 |
21 |
27 |
22 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
15.0 |
16.96 |
0.87 |
7.29 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
14 |
21 |
37 |
15 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
14.0 |
15.90 |
0.86 |
8.93 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
17 |
51 |
22 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
15.04 |
0.87 |
9.84 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
21 |
58 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
12.0 |
13.98 |
0.86 |
10.79 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
17 |
81 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Counter 3.4 |
8.0 |
9.81 |
0.89 |
12.92 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
41 |
33 |
17 |
8 |
13 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.0 |
9.74 |
0.87 |
13.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
38 |
34 |
19 |
9 |
14 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.0 |
9.06 |
0.93 |
13.82 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
16 |
21 |
31 |
29 |
15 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
7.5 |
8.72 |
0.80 |
14.35 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
12 |
31 |
50 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.0 |
6.80 |
0.90 |
15.91 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-11 02:33 |
208 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 03:38 |
209 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 04:43 |
210 |
Counter 3.4 |
Cheese 2.1 |
2020-01-11 05:47 |
211 |
Minic 1.26 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 06:52 |
212 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 07:57 |
213 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-11 09:02 |
214 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-11 10:07 |
215 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-11 11:11 |
216 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 12:16 |
217 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 13:21 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 14:26 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 15:31 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 16:35 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 17:40 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 18:45 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 19:50 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 20:55 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 21:59 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 23:04 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-12 00:09 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 01:14 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 02:19 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 03:23 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 04:28 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 05:33 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 06:38 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 07:43 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 08:47 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 09:52 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 10:57 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 12:02 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 13:07 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |