For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 99.986% 0.014% 100.000%
2. Demolito 20191229 0.013% 74.913% 14.999% 6.506% 2.674% 0.707% 99.812% 0.167% 0.021%
3. Winter 0.7.4 10.226% 29.177% 20.696% 17.532% 12.338% 89.969% 6.665% 2.384% 0.832% 0.150%
4. Minic 1.26 0.001% 10.047% 18.083% 23.457% 19.204% 14.764% 85.556% 10.407% 3.723% 0.314%
5. PeSTO 2.210 2.777% 16.474% 17.260% 18.122% 15.856% 70.489% 14.221% 9.979% 5.024% 0.285% 0.002%
6. Pirarucu 3.2.4 1.601% 16.025% 17.234% 18.669% 20.516% 74.045% 16.829% 6.795% 2.125% 0.206%
7. iCE 4.0.853 0.157% 3.451% 9.340% 13.441% 18.278% 44.667% 22.911% 24.135% 7.770% 0.502% 0.015%
8. Igel 2.3.0 0.264% 1.713% 5.074% 9.145% 14.600% 30.796% 21.000% 29.381% 15.200% 3.384% 0.239%
9. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 0.001% 0.078% 0.432% 1.182% 2.624% 4.317% 6.129% 16.290% 41.901% 28.431% 2.932%
10. Topple 0.7.4 0.001% 0.031% 0.317% 0.349% 1.671% 7.123% 25.260% 52.169% 13.428%
11. Gogobello 2.1_dev 0.169% 1.574% 14.873% 83.293% 0.091%
12. Counter 3.4 0.069% 41.801% 28.239% 17.228% 11.009% 1.654%
13. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 0.019% 30.597% 34.305% 23.367% 10.261% 1.451%
14. Tucano 8.07_dev2 0.003% 22.338% 23.211% 27.612% 20.210% 6.626%
15. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 5.018% 13.405% 29.006% 49.361% 3.210%
16. Cheese 2.1 0.155% 0.840% 2.787% 9.159% 87.059%

Speculate Tucano 8.07_dev2 – Counter 3.4 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 99.982% 0.018% 100.000%
2. Demolito 20191229 0.016% 74.439% 15.357% 6.494% 2.731% 0.764% 99.801% 0.179% 0.020%
3. Winter 0.7.4 10.407% 29.008% 20.641% 17.759% 12.204% 90.019% 6.489% 2.508% 0.860% 0.124%
4. Minic 1.26 0.002% 10.203% 18.232% 23.142% 19.245% 14.529% 85.353% 10.664% 3.671% 0.312%
5. PeSTO 2.210 2.834% 16.272% 17.369% 18.222% 15.862% 70.559% 13.913% 10.189% 5.053% 0.285% 0.001%
6. Pirarucu 3.2.4 1.678% 15.949% 17.363% 18.613% 20.637% 74.240% 16.980% 6.559% 2.000% 0.221%
7. iCE 4.0.853 0.160% 3.440% 9.491% 13.195% 18.443% 44.729% 23.039% 24.020% 7.710% 0.492% 0.010%
8. Igel 2.3.0 0.261% 1.672% 5.100% 9.033% 14.641% 30.707% 21.069% 29.763% 14.949% 3.278% 0.234%
9. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 0.069% 0.399% 1.171% 2.619% 4.258% 6.081% 15.979% 42.490% 28.269% 2.923%
10. Topple 0.7.4 0.001% 0.001% 0.031% 0.301% 0.334% 1.585% 7.115% 25.029% 52.651% 13.286%
11. Gogobello 2.1_dev 0.001% 0.176% 1.597% 14.680% 83.520% 0.026%
12. Tucano 8.07_dev2 0.003% 41.285% 28.022% 20.122% 9.264% 1.304%
13. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 0.018% 36.003% 26.200% 24.705% 11.608% 1.466%
14. Counter 3.4 0.005% 17.678% 30.184% 27.135% 21.435% 3.563%
15. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 4.816% 14.704% 25.432% 51.860% 3.188%
16. Cheese 2.1 0.192% 0.890% 2.606% 5.833% 90.479%

Speculate Tucano 8.07_dev2 – Counter 3.4 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 99.988% 0.012% 100.000%
2. Demolito 20191229 0.012% 74.584% 15.325% 6.464% 2.698% 0.704% 99.787% 0.191% 0.022%
3. Winter 0.7.4 10.377% 29.216% 20.561% 17.401% 12.334% 89.889% 6.684% 2.472% 0.833% 0.122%
4. Minic 1.26 9.944% 17.958% 23.306% 19.410% 14.598% 85.216% 10.647% 3.787% 0.348% 0.002%
5. PeSTO 2.210 2.963% 16.326% 17.523% 18.359% 15.726% 70.897% 13.956% 9.925% 4.943% 0.277% 0.002%
6. Pirarucu 3.2.4 1.682% 15.978% 17.264% 18.632% 20.895% 74.451% 16.688% 6.665% 1.994% 0.202%
7. iCE 4.0.853 0.177% 3.438% 9.458% 13.212% 18.127% 44.412% 23.281% 24.117% 7.659% 0.508% 0.023%
8. Igel 2.3.0 0.261% 1.686% 4.990% 9.054% 14.718% 30.709% 20.887% 29.543% 15.252% 3.372% 0.237%
9. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 0.073% 0.433% 1.210% 2.587% 4.303% 5.998% 16.107% 42.473% 28.156% 2.963%
10. Topple 0.7.4 0.001% 0.024% 0.311% 0.336% 1.668% 7.202% 24.963% 52.111% 13.720%
11. Gogobello 2.1_dev 0.160% 1.535% 15.250% 83.020% 0.035%
12. Counter 3.4 0.022% 43.724% 31.536% 16.710% 7.489% 0.519%
13. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 0.013% 32.575% 30.433% 24.757% 10.741% 1.481%
14. Tucano 8.07_dev2 17.859% 23.935% 31.707% 20.696% 5.803%
15. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 5.583% 13.257% 24.385% 53.267% 3.508%
16. Cheese 2.1 0.224% 0.839% 2.441% 7.807% 88.689%

Speculate Tucano 8.07_dev2 – Counter 3.4 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 99.987% 0.013% 100.000%
2. Demolito 20191229 0.013% 74.640% 15.263% 6.454% 2.707% 0.730% 99.807% 0.179% 0.014%
3. Winter 0.7.4 10.207% 28.789% 20.900% 17.545% 12.411% 89.852% 6.680% 2.518% 0.822% 0.128%
4. Minic 1.26 10.168% 18.136% 23.433% 19.353% 14.433% 85.523% 10.480% 3.667% 0.328% 0.002%
5. PeSTO 2.210 2.763% 16.607% 17.389% 18.161% 15.717% 70.637% 14.172% 9.966% 4.950% 0.272% 0.003%
6. Pirarucu 3.2.4 1.757% 16.197% 17.120% 18.813% 20.590% 74.477% 16.638% 6.622% 2.067% 0.196%
7. iCE 4.0.853 0.149% 3.334% 9.236% 13.051% 18.347% 44.117% 23.050% 24.316% 7.929% 0.571% 0.017%
8. Igel 2.3.0 0.303% 1.610% 5.042% 9.177% 14.902% 31.034% 21.072% 29.284% 15.021% 3.321% 0.268%
9. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 0.064% 0.426% 1.163% 2.537% 4.190% 6.037% 16.388% 42.172% 28.236% 2.977%
10. Topple 0.7.4 0.030% 0.333% 0.363% 1.692% 7.068% 25.116% 52.446% 13.315%
11. Gogobello 2.1_dev 0.157% 1.595% 14.828% 83.231% 0.186% 0.003%
12. Counter 3.4 0.171% 70.812% 22.868% 5.562% 0.585% 0.002%
13. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 0.018% 22.139% 47.204% 21.203% 8.203% 1.233%
14. Tucano 8.07_dev2 2.304% 17.515% 33.600% 33.109% 13.472%
15. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 4.445% 11.808% 36.711% 44.195% 2.841%
16. Cheese 2.1 0.114% 0.602% 2.924% 13.908% 82.452%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev 20.5 23.64 0.70 1.00 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Demolito 20191225/20191229 17.5 20.02 0.82 2.23 0 85 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 Winter 0.7.4 16.0 18.56 0.83 4.12 0 6 37 23 16 10 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 16.5 18.33 0.86 4.56 0 7 21 25 21 14 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 PeSTO 2.210 15.5 17.96 0.86 5.35 0 1 13 20 22 18 15 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 16.0 17.92 0.86 5.38 0 2 14 16 19 22 18 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 iCE 4.0.853 15.0 17.38 0.84 6.51 0 0 3 9 13 20 26 22 6 1 0 0 0 0 0
8 Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 15.0 16.95 0.87 7.28 0 0 1 4 7 13 21 37 15 2 0 0 0 0 0
9 Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 14.0 15.89 0.86 8.93 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 17 51 23 3 0 0 0 0
10 Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 13.0 15.04 0.87 9.84 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 21 58 16 0 0 0 0
11 Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev 12.0 13.98 0.86 10.80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 17 82 0 0 0 0
12 Counter 3.4 8.0 9.79 0.90 12.94 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 33 18 8
13 FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev 8.0 9.73 0.87 13.01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 34 19 9
14 Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 7.0 9.06 0.92 13.82 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 21 31 28
15 Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 7.5 8.73 0.80 14.34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 12 31 49
16 Cheese 2.1 5.5 7.02 0.80 15.89 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-01-11 03:18 209 Tucano 8.07_dev2 FabChess 1.13.5_dev
2020-01-11 04:23 210 Counter 3.4 Cheese 2.1
2020-01-11 05:27 211 Minic 1.26 Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-01-11 06:32 212 Igel 2.3.0 Demolito 20191229
2020-01-11 07:37 213 Asymptote 0.7_dev3 iCE 4.0.853
2020-01-11 08:42 214 Pirarucu 3.2.4 Gogobello 2.1_dev
2020-01-11 09:46 215 Marvin 3.5.0-a8 PeSTO 2.210
2020-01-11 10:51 216 Topple 0.7.4 Winter 0.7.4
2020-01-11 11:56 217 FabChess 1.13.5_dev Topple 0.7.4
2020-01-11 13:00 218 Winter 0.7.4 Marvin 3.5.0-a8
2020-01-11 14:05 219 PeSTO 2.210 Pirarucu 3.2.4
2020-01-11 15:10 220 Gogobello 2.1_dev Asymptote 0.7_dev3
2020-01-11 16:14 221 iCE 4.0.853 Igel 2.3.0
2020-01-11 17:19 222 Demolito 20191229 Minic 1.26
2020-01-11 18:24 223 Defenchess 2.3_dev Counter 3.4
2020-01-11 19:29 224 Cheese 2.1 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-01-11 20:33 225 Cheese 2.1 FabChess 1.13.5_dev
2020-01-11 21:38 226 Tucano 8.07_dev2 Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-01-11 22:43 227 Counter 3.4 Demolito 20191229
2020-01-11 23:47 228 Minic 1.26 iCE 4.0.853
2020-01-12 00:52 229 Igel 2.3.0 Gogobello 2.1_dev
2020-01-12 01:57 230 Asymptote 0.7_dev3 PeSTO 2.210
2020-01-12 03:02 231 Pirarucu 3.2.4 Winter 0.7.4
2020-01-12 04:06 232 Marvin 3.5.0-a8 Topple 0.7.4
2020-01-12 05:11 233 FabChess 1.13.5_dev Marvin 3.5.0-a8
2020-01-12 06:16 234 Topple 0.7.4 Pirarucu 3.2.4
2020-01-12 07:20 235 Winter 0.7.4 Asymptote 0.7_dev3
2020-01-12 08:25 236 PeSTO 2.210 Igel 2.3.0
2020-01-12 09:30 237 Gogobello 2.1_dev Minic 1.26
2020-01-12 10:34 238 iCE 4.0.853 Counter 3.4
2020-01-12 11:39 239 Demolito 20191229 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-01-12 12:44 240 Defenchess 2.3_dev Cheese 2.1