For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.986% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.013% |
74.913% |
14.999% |
6.506% |
2.674% |
0.707% |
|
99.812% |
|
0.167% |
0.021% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.226% |
29.177% |
20.696% |
17.532% |
12.338% |
|
89.969% |
|
6.665% |
2.384% |
0.832% |
0.150% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.001% |
10.047% |
18.083% |
23.457% |
19.204% |
14.764% |
|
85.556% |
|
10.407% |
3.723% |
0.314% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.777% |
16.474% |
17.260% |
18.122% |
15.856% |
|
70.489% |
|
14.221% |
9.979% |
5.024% |
0.285% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.601% |
16.025% |
17.234% |
18.669% |
20.516% |
|
74.045% |
|
16.829% |
6.795% |
2.125% |
0.206% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.157% |
3.451% |
9.340% |
13.441% |
18.278% |
|
44.667% |
|
22.911% |
24.135% |
7.770% |
0.502% |
0.015% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.264% |
1.713% |
5.074% |
9.145% |
14.600% |
|
30.796% |
|
21.000% |
29.381% |
15.200% |
3.384% |
0.239% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
0.001% |
0.078% |
0.432% |
1.182% |
2.624% |
|
4.317% |
|
6.129% |
16.290% |
41.901% |
28.431% |
2.932% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.031% |
0.317% |
|
0.349% |
|
1.671% |
7.123% |
25.260% |
52.169% |
13.428% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.169% |
1.574% |
14.873% |
83.293% |
0.091% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.069% |
41.801% |
28.239% |
17.228% |
11.009% |
1.654% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.019% |
30.597% |
34.305% |
23.367% |
10.261% |
1.451% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
22.338% |
23.211% |
27.612% |
20.210% |
6.626% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.018% |
13.405% |
29.006% |
49.361% |
3.210% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.155% |
0.840% |
2.787% |
9.159% |
87.059% |
Speculate Tucano 8.07_dev2 – Counter 3.4 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.982% |
0.018% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.016% |
74.439% |
15.357% |
6.494% |
2.731% |
0.764% |
|
99.801% |
|
0.179% |
0.020% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.407% |
29.008% |
20.641% |
17.759% |
12.204% |
|
90.019% |
|
6.489% |
2.508% |
0.860% |
0.124% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.002% |
10.203% |
18.232% |
23.142% |
19.245% |
14.529% |
|
85.353% |
|
10.664% |
3.671% |
0.312% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.834% |
16.272% |
17.369% |
18.222% |
15.862% |
|
70.559% |
|
13.913% |
10.189% |
5.053% |
0.285% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.678% |
15.949% |
17.363% |
18.613% |
20.637% |
|
74.240% |
|
16.980% |
6.559% |
2.000% |
0.221% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.160% |
3.440% |
9.491% |
13.195% |
18.443% |
|
44.729% |
|
23.039% |
24.020% |
7.710% |
0.492% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.261% |
1.672% |
5.100% |
9.033% |
14.641% |
|
30.707% |
|
21.069% |
29.763% |
14.949% |
3.278% |
0.234% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.069% |
0.399% |
1.171% |
2.619% |
|
4.258% |
|
6.081% |
15.979% |
42.490% |
28.269% |
2.923% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.001% |
0.031% |
0.301% |
|
0.334% |
|
1.585% |
7.115% |
25.029% |
52.651% |
13.286% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.176% |
1.597% |
14.680% |
83.520% |
0.026% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
41.285% |
28.022% |
20.122% |
9.264% |
1.304% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.018% |
36.003% |
26.200% |
24.705% |
11.608% |
1.466% |
14. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
17.678% |
30.184% |
27.135% |
21.435% |
3.563% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.816% |
14.704% |
25.432% |
51.860% |
3.188% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.192% |
0.890% |
2.606% |
5.833% |
90.479% |
Speculate Tucano 8.07_dev2 – Counter 3.4 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.988% |
0.012% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.012% |
74.584% |
15.325% |
6.464% |
2.698% |
0.704% |
|
99.787% |
|
0.191% |
0.022% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.377% |
29.216% |
20.561% |
17.401% |
12.334% |
|
89.889% |
|
6.684% |
2.472% |
0.833% |
0.122% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
9.944% |
17.958% |
23.306% |
19.410% |
14.598% |
|
85.216% |
|
10.647% |
3.787% |
0.348% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.963% |
16.326% |
17.523% |
18.359% |
15.726% |
|
70.897% |
|
13.956% |
9.925% |
4.943% |
0.277% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.682% |
15.978% |
17.264% |
18.632% |
20.895% |
|
74.451% |
|
16.688% |
6.665% |
1.994% |
0.202% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.177% |
3.438% |
9.458% |
13.212% |
18.127% |
|
44.412% |
|
23.281% |
24.117% |
7.659% |
0.508% |
0.023% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.261% |
1.686% |
4.990% |
9.054% |
14.718% |
|
30.709% |
|
20.887% |
29.543% |
15.252% |
3.372% |
0.237% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.073% |
0.433% |
1.210% |
2.587% |
|
4.303% |
|
5.998% |
16.107% |
42.473% |
28.156% |
2.963% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.024% |
0.311% |
|
0.336% |
|
1.668% |
7.202% |
24.963% |
52.111% |
13.720% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.160% |
1.535% |
15.250% |
83.020% |
0.035% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.022% |
43.724% |
31.536% |
16.710% |
7.489% |
0.519% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.013% |
32.575% |
30.433% |
24.757% |
10.741% |
1.481% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17.859% |
23.935% |
31.707% |
20.696% |
5.803% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.583% |
13.257% |
24.385% |
53.267% |
3.508% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.224% |
0.839% |
2.441% |
7.807% |
88.689% |
Speculate Tucano 8.07_dev2 – Counter 3.4 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.987% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.013% |
74.640% |
15.263% |
6.454% |
2.707% |
0.730% |
|
99.807% |
|
0.179% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.207% |
28.789% |
20.900% |
17.545% |
12.411% |
|
89.852% |
|
6.680% |
2.518% |
0.822% |
0.128% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
10.168% |
18.136% |
23.433% |
19.353% |
14.433% |
|
85.523% |
|
10.480% |
3.667% |
0.328% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.763% |
16.607% |
17.389% |
18.161% |
15.717% |
|
70.637% |
|
14.172% |
9.966% |
4.950% |
0.272% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.757% |
16.197% |
17.120% |
18.813% |
20.590% |
|
74.477% |
|
16.638% |
6.622% |
2.067% |
0.196% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.149% |
3.334% |
9.236% |
13.051% |
18.347% |
|
44.117% |
|
23.050% |
24.316% |
7.929% |
0.571% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.303% |
1.610% |
5.042% |
9.177% |
14.902% |
|
31.034% |
|
21.072% |
29.284% |
15.021% |
3.321% |
0.268% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.064% |
0.426% |
1.163% |
2.537% |
|
4.190% |
|
6.037% |
16.388% |
42.172% |
28.236% |
2.977% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.030% |
0.333% |
|
0.363% |
|
1.692% |
7.068% |
25.116% |
52.446% |
13.315% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.157% |
1.595% |
14.828% |
83.231% |
0.186% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.171% |
70.812% |
22.868% |
5.562% |
0.585% |
0.002% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.018% |
22.139% |
47.204% |
21.203% |
8.203% |
1.233% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.304% |
17.515% |
33.600% |
33.109% |
13.472% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.445% |
11.808% |
36.711% |
44.195% |
2.841% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.114% |
0.602% |
2.924% |
13.908% |
82.452% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
20.5 |
23.64 |
0.70 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
17.5 |
20.02 |
0.82 |
2.23 |
0 |
85 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
16.0 |
18.56 |
0.83 |
4.12 |
0 |
6 |
37 |
23 |
16 |
10 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
16.5 |
18.33 |
0.86 |
4.56 |
0 |
7 |
21 |
25 |
21 |
14 |
9 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
15.5 |
17.96 |
0.86 |
5.35 |
0 |
1 |
13 |
20 |
22 |
18 |
15 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
16.0 |
17.92 |
0.86 |
5.38 |
0 |
2 |
14 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
18 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
15.0 |
17.38 |
0.84 |
6.51 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
9 |
13 |
20 |
26 |
22 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
15.0 |
16.95 |
0.87 |
7.28 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
7 |
13 |
21 |
37 |
15 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
14.0 |
15.89 |
0.86 |
8.93 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
17 |
51 |
23 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
15.04 |
0.87 |
9.84 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
21 |
58 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
12.0 |
13.98 |
0.86 |
10.80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
17 |
82 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Counter 3.4 |
8.0 |
9.79 |
0.90 |
12.94 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
41 |
33 |
18 |
8 |
13 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.0 |
9.73 |
0.87 |
13.01 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
38 |
34 |
19 |
9 |
14 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.0 |
9.06 |
0.92 |
13.82 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
21 |
31 |
28 |
15 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
7.5 |
8.73 |
0.80 |
14.34 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
12 |
31 |
49 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.5 |
7.02 |
0.80 |
15.89 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-11 03:18 |
209 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 04:23 |
210 |
Counter 3.4 |
Cheese 2.1 |
2020-01-11 05:27 |
211 |
Minic 1.26 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 06:32 |
212 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 07:37 |
213 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-11 08:42 |
214 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-11 09:46 |
215 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-11 10:51 |
216 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 11:56 |
217 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 13:00 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 14:05 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 15:10 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 16:14 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 17:19 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 18:24 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 19:29 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 20:33 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 21:38 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 22:43 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 23:47 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 00:52 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 01:57 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 03:02 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 04:06 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 05:11 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 06:16 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 07:20 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 08:25 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 09:30 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 10:34 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 11:39 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 12:44 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |