For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.990% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.010% |
74.845% |
15.179% |
6.370% |
2.648% |
0.739% |
|
99.791% |
|
0.193% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.115% |
29.033% |
20.913% |
17.649% |
12.162% |
|
89.872% |
|
6.621% |
2.484% |
0.911% |
0.112% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
10.098% |
17.990% |
23.448% |
19.280% |
14.597% |
|
85.413% |
|
10.450% |
3.815% |
0.320% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.782% |
16.447% |
17.284% |
18.304% |
15.870% |
|
70.687% |
|
14.167% |
9.998% |
4.880% |
0.267% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.712% |
16.109% |
17.404% |
18.743% |
20.401% |
|
74.369% |
|
16.709% |
6.675% |
2.038% |
0.209% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.157% |
3.421% |
9.181% |
12.962% |
18.337% |
|
44.058% |
|
23.046% |
24.302% |
8.024% |
0.553% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.281% |
1.752% |
4.992% |
9.178% |
14.823% |
|
31.026% |
|
21.035% |
29.260% |
15.213% |
3.212% |
0.254% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.069% |
0.407% |
1.197% |
2.771% |
|
4.444% |
|
6.121% |
16.165% |
42.256% |
28.029% |
2.985% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.039% |
0.300% |
|
0.340% |
|
1.658% |
7.102% |
24.802% |
52.521% |
13.577% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.183% |
1.556% |
15.095% |
82.982% |
0.184% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.158% |
71.082% |
22.589% |
5.587% |
0.576% |
0.008% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.026% |
21.830% |
47.775% |
20.869% |
8.235% |
1.265% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.304% |
17.240% |
33.771% |
33.095% |
13.590% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.470% |
11.743% |
36.874% |
43.943% |
2.970% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.130% |
0.653% |
2.899% |
14.151% |
82.167% |
Speculate Tucano 8.07_dev2 – FabChess 1.13.5_dev 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.984% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.016% |
74.468% |
15.232% |
6.534% |
2.790% |
0.736% |
|
99.776% |
|
0.203% |
0.021% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.306% |
29.014% |
21.082% |
17.426% |
12.195% |
|
90.023% |
|
6.485% |
2.519% |
0.848% |
0.125% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
10.156% |
18.132% |
23.181% |
19.390% |
14.630% |
|
85.489% |
|
10.387% |
3.755% |
0.364% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.893% |
16.362% |
17.323% |
18.312% |
15.699% |
|
70.589% |
|
14.254% |
9.892% |
4.969% |
0.296% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.751% |
16.061% |
17.222% |
18.746% |
20.860% |
|
74.640% |
|
16.400% |
6.691% |
2.048% |
0.221% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.156% |
3.350% |
9.189% |
13.064% |
18.194% |
|
43.953% |
|
23.225% |
24.362% |
7.921% |
0.522% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.254% |
1.775% |
5.013% |
9.013% |
14.647% |
|
30.702% |
|
21.201% |
29.273% |
15.210% |
3.364% |
0.250% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.074% |
0.455% |
1.217% |
2.737% |
|
4.483% |
|
6.142% |
16.101% |
42.131% |
28.191% |
2.952% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.042% |
0.302% |
|
0.345% |
|
1.703% |
7.217% |
24.936% |
52.655% |
13.144% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.169% |
1.573% |
14.621% |
83.480% |
0.157% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.157% |
80.246% |
14.559% |
4.170% |
0.864% |
0.004% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8.461% |
36.799% |
34.745% |
17.173% |
2.822% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.846% |
34.573% |
36.165% |
20.500% |
3.916% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6.097% |
13.216% |
22.117% |
54.883% |
3.687% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.193% |
0.853% |
2.803% |
6.580% |
89.571% |
Speculate Tucano 8.07_dev2 – FabChess 1.13.5_dev 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.983% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.017% |
74.833% |
15.102% |
6.481% |
2.671% |
0.721% |
|
99.825% |
|
0.162% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.322% |
28.949% |
20.880% |
17.351% |
12.312% |
|
89.814% |
|
6.641% |
2.514% |
0.890% |
0.141% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
9.925% |
17.933% |
23.289% |
19.564% |
14.596% |
|
85.307% |
|
10.571% |
3.780% |
0.342% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.865% |
16.517% |
17.476% |
18.316% |
15.692% |
|
70.866% |
|
13.895% |
10.045% |
4.904% |
0.286% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.608% |
16.380% |
17.021% |
18.644% |
20.809% |
|
74.462% |
|
16.485% |
6.841% |
2.012% |
0.200% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.158% |
3.374% |
9.309% |
13.145% |
18.108% |
|
44.094% |
|
23.265% |
24.130% |
7.908% |
0.585% |
0.018% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.272% |
1.675% |
5.116% |
9.073% |
14.761% |
|
30.897% |
|
21.213% |
29.273% |
14.973% |
3.390% |
0.254% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.070% |
0.428% |
1.215% |
2.674% |
|
4.387% |
|
6.143% |
16.137% |
42.320% |
28.132% |
2.881% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.021% |
0.327% |
|
0.348% |
|
1.625% |
7.104% |
25.072% |
52.257% |
13.594% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.163% |
1.579% |
15.009% |
83.078% |
0.171% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.171% |
72.959% |
20.965% |
5.278% |
0.622% |
0.005% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
21.142% |
56.135% |
17.864% |
4.629% |
0.230% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.581% |
11.473% |
35.447% |
45.463% |
3.036% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.017% |
10.785% |
38.770% |
35.975% |
13.453% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.130% |
0.642% |
2.641% |
13.311% |
83.276% |
Speculate Tucano 8.07_dev2 – FabChess 1.13.5_dev 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.989% |
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.010% |
74.830% |
15.130% |
6.490% |
2.673% |
0.679% |
|
99.812% |
|
0.177% |
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.139% |
29.068% |
21.240% |
17.197% |
12.435% |
|
90.079% |
|
6.554% |
2.393% |
0.839% |
0.135% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.001% |
10.089% |
18.033% |
23.290% |
19.452% |
14.506% |
|
85.371% |
|
10.480% |
3.804% |
0.345% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.821% |
16.523% |
17.347% |
18.202% |
15.751% |
|
70.644% |
|
14.245% |
10.045% |
4.791% |
0.273% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.674% |
16.074% |
17.235% |
18.798% |
20.588% |
|
74.369% |
|
16.688% |
6.746% |
2.012% |
0.185% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.153% |
3.320% |
9.099% |
13.254% |
18.413% |
|
44.239% |
|
23.017% |
24.303% |
7.907% |
0.523% |
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.283% |
1.780% |
4.867% |
9.188% |
14.716% |
|
30.834% |
|
21.188% |
29.635% |
14.765% |
3.327% |
0.251% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.072% |
0.430% |
1.211% |
2.601% |
|
4.314% |
|
5.994% |
15.943% |
42.596% |
28.071% |
3.082% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.025% |
0.311% |
|
0.338% |
|
1.657% |
6.953% |
25.107% |
52.120% |
13.825% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.167% |
1.638% |
15.366% |
82.583% |
0.242% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.182% |
57.970% |
33.922% |
7.621% |
0.305% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.064% |
38.982% |
54.124% |
6.492% |
0.338% |
|
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.649% |
10.200% |
55.591% |
29.809% |
1.751% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.099% |
1.410% |
27.166% |
46.151% |
25.174% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.058% |
0.340% |
3.130% |
23.397% |
73.075% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
20.5 |
23.64 |
0.70 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
17.5 |
20.02 |
0.82 |
2.22 |
0 |
85 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
16.0 |
18.55 |
0.83 |
4.13 |
0 |
6 |
37 |
23 |
16 |
10 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
16.5 |
18.34 |
0.86 |
4.54 |
0 |
7 |
21 |
25 |
21 |
14 |
9 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
15.5 |
17.95 |
0.86 |
5.36 |
0 |
1 |
13 |
20 |
21 |
18 |
15 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
16.0 |
17.92 |
0.86 |
5.37 |
0 |
2 |
14 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
18 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
15.0 |
17.35 |
0.84 |
6.54 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
8 |
13 |
20 |
26 |
23 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
15.0 |
16.96 |
0.87 |
7.26 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
8 |
14 |
21 |
36 |
15 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
14.0 |
15.89 |
0.86 |
8.93 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
17 |
51 |
23 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
15.05 |
0.87 |
9.84 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
21 |
58 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
12.0 |
13.99 |
0.85 |
10.79 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
17 |
81 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Counter 3.4 |
9.0 |
10.37 |
0.78 |
12.34 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
70 |
27 |
4 |
0 |
13 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.0 |
9.74 |
0.88 |
13.05 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
26 |
50 |
17 |
7 |
14 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
7.5 |
8.72 |
0.80 |
14.23 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
12 |
46 |
36 |
15 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.0 |
8.48 |
0.80 |
14.52 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
11 |
31 |
47 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.5 |
7.02 |
0.80 |
15.84 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
10 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-11 04:26 |
210 |
Counter 3.4 |
Cheese 2.1 |
2020-01-11 05:31 |
211 |
Minic 1.26 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 06:36 |
212 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 07:40 |
213 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-11 08:45 |
214 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-11 09:50 |
215 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-11 10:55 |
216 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 11:59 |
217 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 13:04 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 14:09 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 15:13 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 16:18 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 17:23 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 18:28 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 19:32 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 20:37 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 21:42 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 22:47 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 23:51 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 00:56 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 02:01 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 03:05 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 04:10 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 05:15 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 06:20 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 07:24 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 08:29 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 09:34 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 10:38 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 11:43 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 12:48 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |