For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.990% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.010% |
74.938% |
15.158% |
6.355% |
2.597% |
0.726% |
|
99.784% |
|
0.202% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.168% |
28.973% |
20.486% |
17.651% |
12.547% |
|
89.825% |
|
6.630% |
2.498% |
0.891% |
0.156% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
10.063% |
17.954% |
23.398% |
19.421% |
14.650% |
|
85.486% |
|
10.379% |
3.816% |
0.318% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.762% |
16.255% |
17.427% |
18.332% |
15.786% |
|
70.562% |
|
14.101% |
10.022% |
5.024% |
0.291% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.665% |
16.489% |
17.508% |
18.646% |
20.216% |
|
74.524% |
|
16.704% |
6.619% |
1.960% |
0.193% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.140% |
3.374% |
9.346% |
12.942% |
18.270% |
|
44.072% |
|
23.126% |
24.230% |
8.033% |
0.525% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.254% |
1.717% |
5.062% |
9.248% |
14.777% |
|
31.058% |
|
20.936% |
29.235% |
15.171% |
3.344% |
0.256% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.080% |
0.418% |
1.140% |
2.695% |
|
4.333% |
|
6.322% |
16.296% |
42.048% |
28.128% |
2.873% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.023% |
0.333% |
|
0.356% |
|
1.600% |
7.094% |
25.014% |
52.366% |
13.570% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.176% |
1.541% |
14.996% |
83.128% |
0.159% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.159% |
72.790% |
21.041% |
5.391% |
0.614% |
0.005% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
21.268% |
55.906% |
18.001% |
4.606% |
0.219% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.598% |
11.605% |
35.436% |
45.333% |
3.028% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.014% |
10.788% |
38.566% |
36.237% |
13.395% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.171% |
0.660% |
2.606% |
13.210% |
83.353% |
Speculate Counter 3.4 – Cheese 2.1 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.987% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.013% |
74.475% |
15.276% |
6.558% |
2.731% |
0.743% |
|
99.796% |
|
0.174% |
0.030% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.513% |
28.836% |
20.808% |
17.389% |
12.352% |
|
89.898% |
|
6.716% |
2.439% |
0.842% |
0.105% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
10.009% |
18.371% |
23.532% |
19.238% |
14.402% |
|
85.552% |
|
10.323% |
3.798% |
0.327% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.842% |
16.444% |
17.454% |
18.182% |
15.529% |
|
70.451% |
|
14.318% |
9.938% |
5.010% |
0.281% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.733% |
15.987% |
17.152% |
19.037% |
20.741% |
|
74.650% |
|
16.498% |
6.611% |
2.031% |
0.210% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.158% |
3.321% |
9.038% |
13.221% |
18.114% |
|
43.852% |
|
23.273% |
24.314% |
8.050% |
0.502% |
0.009% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.256% |
1.696% |
5.080% |
8.960% |
15.057% |
|
31.049% |
|
21.099% |
29.213% |
14.986% |
3.408% |
0.245% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
0.001% |
0.069% |
0.378% |
1.219% |
2.740% |
|
4.407% |
|
5.989% |
16.378% |
42.237% |
27.987% |
3.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.023% |
0.322% |
|
0.345% |
|
1.609% |
7.126% |
24.883% |
52.367% |
13.670% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.153% |
1.634% |
15.140% |
82.746% |
0.326% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.326% |
86.490% |
12.248% |
0.921% |
0.015% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.463% |
67.207% |
18.278% |
4.023% |
0.029% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.198% |
11.050% |
41.029% |
40.411% |
7.312% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.523% |
9.448% |
39.299% |
48.189% |
0.541% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.047% |
0.473% |
7.362% |
92.118% |
Speculate Counter 3.4 – Cheese 2.1 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.986% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.014% |
74.648% |
15.304% |
6.395% |
2.681% |
0.760% |
|
99.802% |
|
0.183% |
0.015% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.470% |
28.948% |
20.562% |
17.558% |
12.211% |
|
89.749% |
|
6.720% |
2.544% |
0.857% |
0.130% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
9.978% |
18.144% |
23.432% |
19.412% |
14.566% |
|
85.532% |
|
10.351% |
3.772% |
0.344% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.749% |
16.226% |
17.514% |
18.229% |
15.872% |
|
70.590% |
|
14.209% |
9.965% |
4.992% |
0.244% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.715% |
16.193% |
17.135% |
18.753% |
20.649% |
|
74.445% |
|
16.595% |
6.718% |
2.055% |
0.187% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.162% |
3.415% |
9.254% |
13.010% |
18.255% |
|
44.096% |
|
23.329% |
24.180% |
7.858% |
0.523% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.264% |
1.708% |
5.294% |
9.087% |
14.735% |
|
31.088% |
|
21.000% |
29.505% |
14.928% |
3.213% |
0.266% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.062% |
0.414% |
1.233% |
2.616% |
|
4.325% |
|
6.063% |
15.875% |
42.534% |
28.263% |
2.940% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.037% |
0.336% |
|
0.373% |
|
1.549% |
7.231% |
24.887% |
52.293% |
13.667% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.195% |
1.545% |
15.146% |
83.064% |
0.049% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.049% |
71.330% |
23.830% |
4.496% |
0.295% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
22.776% |
54.423% |
18.266% |
4.404% |
0.131% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.993% |
10.844% |
35.601% |
45.557% |
3.005% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.852% |
10.493% |
39.102% |
35.143% |
14.410% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.410% |
2.535% |
14.601% |
82.454% |
Speculate Counter 3.4 – Cheese 2.1 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.985% |
0.015% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.014% |
75.004% |
15.077% |
6.426% |
2.542% |
0.722% |
|
99.785% |
|
0.194% |
0.021% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.044% |
29.121% |
20.631% |
17.543% |
12.439% |
|
89.778% |
|
6.709% |
2.539% |
0.849% |
0.125% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.001% |
10.033% |
17.831% |
23.435% |
19.338% |
14.627% |
|
85.265% |
|
10.592% |
3.832% |
0.310% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.807% |
16.482% |
17.135% |
18.336% |
15.558% |
|
70.318% |
|
14.254% |
10.154% |
4.976% |
0.296% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.656% |
16.149% |
17.422% |
18.698% |
20.434% |
|
74.359% |
|
16.686% |
6.661% |
2.075% |
0.219% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.165% |
3.474% |
9.500% |
13.325% |
18.567% |
|
45.031% |
|
22.931% |
23.802% |
7.700% |
0.524% |
0.012% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.276% |
1.782% |
5.003% |
8.974% |
14.683% |
|
30.718% |
|
21.010% |
29.608% |
15.072% |
3.326% |
0.266% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.084% |
0.446% |
1.207% |
2.648% |
|
4.385% |
|
6.017% |
16.127% |
42.362% |
28.180% |
2.929% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.037% |
0.322% |
|
0.361% |
|
1.605% |
7.121% |
25.059% |
52.192% |
13.662% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.135% |
1.597% |
15.137% |
83.122% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
49.600% |
34.072% |
14.249% |
2.051% |
0.021% |
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
39.601% |
37.370% |
16.656% |
5.757% |
0.616% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.693% |
15.647% |
28.246% |
40.757% |
7.657% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.579% |
10.846% |
34.024% |
29.447% |
23.104% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.520% |
2.065% |
6.825% |
21.988% |
68.602% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
20.5 |
23.64 |
0.70 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
17.5 |
20.02 |
0.82 |
2.22 |
0 |
85 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
16.0 |
18.55 |
0.83 |
4.13 |
0 |
6 |
37 |
23 |
17 |
10 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
16.5 |
18.34 |
0.86 |
4.54 |
0 |
7 |
22 |
25 |
20 |
14 |
9 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
15.5 |
17.95 |
0.86 |
5.36 |
0 |
1 |
13 |
20 |
22 |
18 |
15 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
16.0 |
17.92 |
0.86 |
5.38 |
0 |
2 |
14 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
18 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
15.0 |
17.36 |
0.84 |
6.54 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
8 |
13 |
20 |
26 |
22 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
15.0 |
16.96 |
0.87 |
7.27 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
7 |
14 |
21 |
36 |
14 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
14.0 |
15.89 |
0.86 |
8.93 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
16 |
51 |
23 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
15.04 |
0.87 |
9.84 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
21 |
59 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
12.0 |
13.99 |
0.85 |
10.79 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
16 |
82 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Counter 3.4 |
9.0 |
10.37 |
0.78 |
12.33 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
71 |
25 |
4 |
0 |
13 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.5 |
9.78 |
0.75 |
12.93 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
25 |
58 |
14 |
2 |
14 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
7.5 |
8.72 |
0.80 |
14.24 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
12 |
47 |
36 |
15 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.5 |
8.43 |
0.67 |
14.64 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
33 |
53 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.5 |
7.02 |
0.80 |
15.86 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
8 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-11 05:35 |
211 |
Minic 1.26 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 06:40 |
212 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 07:45 |
213 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-11 08:49 |
214 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-11 09:54 |
215 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-11 10:59 |
216 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 12:04 |
217 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 13:08 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 14:13 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 15:18 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 16:23 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 17:27 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 18:32 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 19:37 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 20:42 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 21:46 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 22:51 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 23:56 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 01:01 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 02:05 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 03:10 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 04:15 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 05:20 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 06:24 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 07:29 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 08:34 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 09:38 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 10:43 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 11:48 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 12:53 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |