For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.985% |
0.015% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.014% |
74.359% |
15.245% |
6.600% |
2.756% |
0.806% |
|
99.780% |
|
0.199% |
0.021% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.390% |
29.347% |
20.660% |
17.397% |
12.224% |
|
90.018% |
|
6.557% |
2.421% |
0.880% |
0.124% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.001% |
9.998% |
17.980% |
23.552% |
19.577% |
14.468% |
|
85.576% |
|
10.450% |
3.675% |
0.299% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.941% |
16.282% |
17.443% |
18.340% |
15.791% |
|
70.797% |
|
14.061% |
9.930% |
4.959% |
0.252% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.843% |
15.950% |
17.205% |
18.667% |
20.622% |
|
74.287% |
|
16.610% |
6.784% |
2.087% |
0.232% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.175% |
3.346% |
9.163% |
13.004% |
18.138% |
|
43.826% |
|
23.156% |
24.420% |
8.095% |
0.487% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.279% |
1.758% |
4.952% |
9.020% |
14.910% |
|
30.919% |
|
21.228% |
29.271% |
15.072% |
3.278% |
0.232% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.092% |
0.425% |
1.211% |
2.724% |
|
4.452% |
|
6.081% |
16.407% |
42.039% |
28.124% |
2.897% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.028% |
0.317% |
|
0.345% |
|
1.658% |
6.915% |
24.999% |
52.382% |
13.701% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.156% |
1.570% |
15.121% |
82.840% |
0.313% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.313% |
86.571% |
12.153% |
0.948% |
0.015% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.364% |
67.528% |
18.029% |
4.056% |
0.023% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.186% |
11.032% |
41.167% |
40.343% |
7.272% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.566% |
9.240% |
39.382% |
48.273% |
0.539% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.047% |
0.474% |
7.313% |
92.166% |
Speculate Minic 1.26 – Defenchess 2.3_dev 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.949% |
0.051% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.050% |
66.734% |
19.431% |
9.118% |
3.597% |
0.862% |
|
99.792% |
|
0.190% |
0.018% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
0.001% |
22.224% |
30.995% |
24.659% |
12.682% |
6.819% |
|
97.380% |
|
2.384% |
0.234% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
7.923% |
23.360% |
21.824% |
21.210% |
14.278% |
|
88.595% |
|
7.673% |
2.715% |
0.879% |
0.138% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
1.703% |
11.628% |
17.228% |
20.716% |
17.557% |
|
68.832% |
|
15.481% |
10.378% |
5.022% |
0.285% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.072% |
10.518% |
16.865% |
20.778% |
22.376% |
|
71.609% |
|
19.119% |
6.921% |
2.150% |
0.201% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.131% |
2.954% |
6.692% |
11.086% |
19.603% |
|
40.466% |
|
24.972% |
25.639% |
8.366% |
0.540% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.162% |
1.097% |
3.346% |
8.760% |
15.678% |
|
29.043% |
|
22.364% |
30.294% |
14.758% |
3.309% |
0.232% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.017% |
0.268% |
1.148% |
2.535% |
|
3.968% |
|
6.241% |
16.559% |
42.508% |
27.911% |
2.813% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.023% |
0.292% |
|
0.315% |
|
1.575% |
7.075% |
24.820% |
52.738% |
13.477% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.167% |
1.495% |
14.878% |
83.124% |
0.335% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.335% |
86.614% |
12.066% |
0.969% |
0.016% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.340% |
67.208% |
18.263% |
4.152% |
0.037% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.193% |
11.188% |
41.420% |
39.850% |
7.349% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.518% |
9.487% |
38.819% |
48.578% |
0.598% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.051% |
0.529% |
7.404% |
92.016% |
Speculate Minic 1.26 – Defenchess 2.3_dev 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.994% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.006% |
74.014% |
15.170% |
6.929% |
2.833% |
0.825% |
|
99.777% |
|
0.206% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.683% |
28.710% |
19.619% |
17.676% |
12.915% |
|
89.603% |
|
6.810% |
2.511% |
0.948% |
0.128% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
10.184% |
18.996% |
26.085% |
20.722% |
13.451% |
|
89.438% |
|
8.380% |
2.112% |
0.070% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.904% |
16.160% |
16.969% |
18.041% |
15.987% |
|
70.061% |
|
14.585% |
10.194% |
4.891% |
0.269% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.779% |
15.820% |
16.487% |
18.648% |
20.883% |
|
73.617% |
|
17.200% |
6.853% |
2.122% |
0.208% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.164% |
3.401% |
8.742% |
12.174% |
18.084% |
|
42.565% |
|
23.838% |
24.870% |
8.145% |
0.570% |
0.012% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.265% |
1.685% |
4.780% |
8.703% |
15.008% |
|
30.441% |
|
21.268% |
29.780% |
14.952% |
3.339% |
0.220% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
0.001% |
0.058% |
0.388% |
1.178% |
2.550% |
|
4.175% |
|
6.054% |
16.406% |
42.305% |
28.080% |
2.980% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.025% |
0.297% |
|
0.323% |
|
1.659% |
7.096% |
24.953% |
52.496% |
13.473% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.161% |
1.614% |
14.910% |
82.986% |
0.329% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.329% |
86.732% |
12.062% |
0.866% |
0.011% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.155% |
67.521% |
18.089% |
4.209% |
0.026% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.187% |
10.941% |
41.247% |
40.356% |
7.269% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.597% |
9.430% |
39.297% |
48.099% |
0.577% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.046% |
0.501% |
7.325% |
92.128% |
Speculate Minic 1.26 – Defenchess 2.3_dev 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
78.329% |
13.450% |
5.135% |
2.196% |
0.701% |
|
99.811% |
|
0.161% |
0.028% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
11.324% |
31.799% |
20.868% |
15.577% |
11.371% |
|
90.939% |
|
5.823% |
2.273% |
0.835% |
0.130% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
3.389% |
18.957% |
18.098% |
17.105% |
14.794% |
|
72.343% |
|
13.155% |
9.477% |
4.763% |
0.262% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
4.486% |
11.195% |
21.145% |
21.955% |
18.725% |
|
77.506% |
|
15.616% |
6.303% |
0.572% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.986% |
18.873% |
17.476% |
18.117% |
19.610% |
|
76.062% |
|
15.323% |
6.406% |
1.990% |
0.219% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.150% |
3.609% |
10.707% |
14.408% |
17.375% |
|
46.249% |
|
21.770% |
23.553% |
7.841% |
0.570% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.336% |
2.001% |
6.027% |
9.432% |
14.297% |
|
32.093% |
|
20.503% |
28.940% |
14.901% |
3.291% |
0.272% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.116% |
0.543% |
1.167% |
2.759% |
|
4.585% |
|
5.992% |
15.884% |
42.323% |
28.321% |
2.895% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.043% |
0.368% |
|
0.412% |
|
1.657% |
6.950% |
25.211% |
52.149% |
13.621% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.186% |
1.564% |
15.055% |
82.904% |
0.291% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.291% |
86.296% |
12.421% |
0.977% |
0.015% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.629% |
67.204% |
18.170% |
3.973% |
0.024% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.622% |
9.557% |
39.678% |
47.593% |
0.550% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.162% |
10.760% |
40.704% |
41.056% |
7.318% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.058% |
0.471% |
7.363% |
92.108% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
20.5 |
23.64 |
0.70 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
17.5 |
20.01 |
0.82 |
2.23 |
0 |
85 |
10 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
16.0 |
18.56 |
0.83 |
4.12 |
0 |
6 |
37 |
23 |
17 |
10 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
16.5 |
18.34 |
0.86 |
4.54 |
0 |
7 |
22 |
25 |
20 |
14 |
9 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
15.5 |
17.96 |
0.86 |
5.34 |
0 |
1 |
13 |
20 |
22 |
18 |
15 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
16.0 |
17.91 |
0.86 |
5.39 |
0 |
2 |
14 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
18 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
15.0 |
17.35 |
0.84 |
6.55 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
8 |
13 |
20 |
26 |
23 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
15.0 |
16.96 |
0.87 |
7.27 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
8 |
14 |
21 |
37 |
14 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
14.0 |
15.90 |
0.86 |
8.93 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
17 |
51 |
22 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
15.04 |
0.86 |
9.84 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
21 |
58 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
12.0 |
13.99 |
0.86 |
10.79 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
17 |
81 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Counter 3.4 |
10.0 |
10.78 |
0.65 |
12.14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
87 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.5 |
9.79 |
0.75 |
13.07 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
71 |
15 |
2 |
14 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
7.5 |
8.72 |
0.80 |
14.24 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
50 |
37 |
15 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.5 |
8.44 |
0.67 |
14.58 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
34 |
59 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.5 |
6.61 |
0.67 |
15.97 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-11 06:32 |
212 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 07:37 |
213 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-11 08:42 |
214 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-11 09:46 |
215 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-11 10:51 |
216 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 11:56 |
217 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 13:00 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 14:05 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 15:10 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 16:14 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 17:19 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 18:24 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 19:29 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 20:33 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 21:38 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 22:43 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 23:47 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 00:52 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 01:57 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 03:01 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 04:06 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 05:11 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 06:16 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 07:20 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 08:25 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 09:30 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 10:34 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 11:39 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 12:44 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |