For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.994% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.006% |
74.029% |
15.049% |
6.885% |
2.974% |
0.847% |
|
99.790% |
|
0.191% |
0.019% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.644% |
28.816% |
19.662% |
17.673% |
12.664% |
|
89.459% |
|
6.951% |
2.556% |
0.912% |
0.122% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
10.124% |
19.093% |
26.282% |
20.689% |
13.417% |
|
89.605% |
|
8.304% |
2.011% |
0.080% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.978% |
16.045% |
17.053% |
18.152% |
15.997% |
|
70.225% |
|
14.463% |
10.208% |
4.830% |
0.271% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.790% |
15.862% |
16.336% |
18.557% |
21.067% |
|
73.612% |
|
17.227% |
6.972% |
1.982% |
0.207% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.172% |
3.317% |
8.764% |
12.254% |
18.078% |
|
42.585% |
|
23.747% |
24.965% |
8.096% |
0.585% |
0.022% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.256% |
1.763% |
4.673% |
8.457% |
15.131% |
|
30.280% |
|
21.418% |
29.681% |
15.086% |
3.297% |
0.238% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
0.001% |
0.055% |
0.345% |
1.206% |
2.470% |
|
4.077% |
|
6.059% |
16.360% |
42.404% |
28.110% |
2.990% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.038% |
0.329% |
|
0.367% |
|
1.640% |
7.053% |
25.055% |
52.395% |
13.490% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.175% |
1.555% |
15.013% |
82.921% |
0.336% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.336% |
86.373% |
12.316% |
0.967% |
0.008% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.511% |
67.400% |
18.024% |
4.034% |
0.031% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.166% |
10.847% |
41.281% |
40.383% |
7.323% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.614% |
9.383% |
39.236% |
48.180% |
0.587% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.054% |
0.492% |
7.395% |
92.059% |
Speculate Igel 2.3.0 – Demolito 20191229 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
58.426% |
21.765% |
11.471% |
5.943% |
1.858% |
|
99.463% |
|
0.481% |
0.055% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
17.307% |
24.407% |
18.086% |
15.939% |
12.152% |
|
87.891% |
|
7.510% |
3.093% |
1.334% |
0.172% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
14.665% |
17.483% |
22.448% |
19.682% |
13.324% |
|
87.602% |
|
8.732% |
3.529% |
0.137% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
3.419% |
14.810% |
15.740% |
17.340% |
19.246% |
|
70.555% |
|
17.429% |
9.066% |
2.712% |
0.238% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
5.103% |
14.375% |
15.000% |
15.551% |
15.848% |
|
65.877% |
|
15.473% |
12.486% |
5.878% |
0.286% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.718% |
3.963% |
9.130% |
13.661% |
19.760% |
|
47.232% |
|
22.533% |
24.122% |
5.701% |
0.412% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.362% |
3.143% |
7.829% |
10.918% |
15.512% |
|
37.764% |
|
21.649% |
31.258% |
8.717% |
0.597% |
0.015% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.054% |
0.296% |
0.957% |
2.142% |
|
3.449% |
|
5.119% |
12.049% |
47.709% |
28.849% |
2.825% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
0.158% |
|
0.167% |
|
1.074% |
4.326% |
26.555% |
54.642% |
13.236% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.016% |
1.256% |
14.804% |
83.601% |
0.323% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.323% |
86.646% |
12.127% |
0.878% |
0.026% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.300% |
67.431% |
18.189% |
4.048% |
0.032% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.165% |
10.962% |
41.076% |
40.464% |
7.333% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.566% |
9.436% |
39.384% |
48.067% |
0.547% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.044% |
0.473% |
7.395% |
92.088% |
Speculate Igel 2.3.0 – Demolito 20191229 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
75.709% |
15.467% |
6.358% |
2.114% |
0.333% |
|
99.981% |
|
0.019% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
9.860% |
29.283% |
19.677% |
18.279% |
12.813% |
|
89.912% |
|
6.651% |
2.441% |
0.864% |
0.132% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
10.563% |
18.470% |
26.818% |
20.748% |
13.242% |
|
89.841% |
|
8.465% |
1.624% |
0.070% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.311% |
16.478% |
17.611% |
18.209% |
15.666% |
|
70.275% |
|
14.128% |
10.159% |
5.162% |
0.274% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.439% |
16.125% |
16.731% |
18.980% |
21.246% |
|
74.521% |
|
16.819% |
6.413% |
2.050% |
0.197% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.105% |
3.368% |
8.876% |
12.345% |
18.230% |
|
42.924% |
|
23.610% |
24.661% |
8.226% |
0.562% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.013% |
0.756% |
3.506% |
8.103% |
15.549% |
|
27.927% |
|
22.615% |
31.605% |
15.396% |
2.373% |
0.084% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.053% |
0.422% |
1.204% |
2.617% |
|
4.296% |
|
6.154% |
16.466% |
42.121% |
27.933% |
3.030% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.018% |
0.304% |
|
0.323% |
|
1.539% |
6.499% |
24.706% |
53.384% |
13.549% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.132% |
1.405% |
15.145% |
82.992% |
0.326% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.326% |
86.692% |
12.059% |
0.910% |
0.013% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.242% |
67.399% |
18.231% |
4.100% |
0.028% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.170% |
11.011% |
41.159% |
40.140% |
7.520% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.570% |
9.483% |
39.219% |
48.146% |
0.582% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.048% |
0.481% |
7.601% |
91.870% |
Speculate Igel 2.3.0 – Demolito 20191229 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
99.984% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
0.016% |
89.259% |
8.010% |
2.235% |
0.454% |
0.023% |
|
99.997% |
|
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
4.367% |
33.278% |
20.621% |
19.139% |
13.364% |
|
90.769% |
|
6.640% |
2.046% |
0.465% |
0.080% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
5.112% |
20.767% |
30.218% |
21.410% |
13.609% |
|
91.116% |
|
7.961% |
0.893% |
0.030% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.798% |
17.539% |
18.731% |
20.348% |
16.482% |
|
73.898% |
|
13.621% |
8.056% |
4.138% |
0.285% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
0.427% |
16.678% |
17.104% |
19.952% |
22.476% |
|
76.637% |
|
17.193% |
4.656% |
1.358% |
0.156% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.021% |
3.557% |
9.572% |
13.464% |
20.661% |
|
47.275% |
|
26.348% |
18.382% |
7.428% |
0.551% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
|
0.113% |
1.080% |
3.842% |
9.953% |
|
14.988% |
|
18.987% |
33.965% |
24.243% |
7.195% |
0.622% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.058% |
0.438% |
1.355% |
3.001% |
|
4.852% |
|
7.043% |
21.149% |
36.905% |
27.090% |
2.961% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.036% |
0.431% |
|
0.468% |
|
2.203% |
10.497% |
23.464% |
49.865% |
13.503% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.356% |
1.969% |
14.778% |
82.575% |
0.321% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.321% |
86.187% |
12.539% |
0.937% |
0.016% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.600% |
67.117% |
18.173% |
4.079% |
0.031% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.713% |
9.533% |
39.636% |
47.558% |
0.560% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.179% |
10.755% |
40.768% |
40.636% |
7.662% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.056% |
0.486% |
7.711% |
91.747% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
21.0 |
23.50 |
0.56 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
17.5 |
20.00 |
0.82 |
2.24 |
0 |
84 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
16.0 |
18.55 |
0.83 |
4.17 |
0 |
6 |
35 |
23 |
17 |
10 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
17.0 |
18.48 |
0.74 |
4.27 |
0 |
7 |
25 |
28 |
20 |
12 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
15.5 |
17.95 |
0.86 |
5.42 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
18 |
22 |
19 |
16 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
16.0 |
17.92 |
0.87 |
5.44 |
0 |
1 |
13 |
15 |
19 |
22 |
19 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
15.0 |
17.35 |
0.84 |
6.60 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
7 |
12 |
21 |
27 |
23 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
15.0 |
16.96 |
0.87 |
7.29 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
14 |
22 |
37 |
14 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
14.0 |
15.90 |
0.86 |
8.93 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
17 |
51 |
23 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
15.04 |
0.87 |
9.84 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
21 |
58 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
12.0 |
13.98 |
0.85 |
10.80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
16 |
82 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Counter 3.4 |
10.0 |
10.79 |
0.65 |
12.13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
87 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.5 |
9.79 |
0.75 |
13.08 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
71 |
15 |
2 |
14 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
7.5 |
8.73 |
0.80 |
14.24 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
50 |
37 |
15 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.5 |
8.44 |
0.67 |
14.58 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
34 |
59 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.5 |
6.61 |
0.68 |
15.97 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-11 07:36 |
213 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-11 08:41 |
214 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-11 09:46 |
215 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-11 10:50 |
216 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 11:55 |
217 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 13:00 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 14:05 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 15:09 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 16:14 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 17:19 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 18:23 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 19:28 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 20:33 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 21:37 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 22:42 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 23:47 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 00:52 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 01:56 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 03:01 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 04:06 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 05:10 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 06:15 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 07:20 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 08:24 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 09:29 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 10:34 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 11:39 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 12:43 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |