For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
75.863% |
15.366% |
6.363% |
2.071% |
0.311% |
|
99.974% |
|
0.026% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
9.892% |
29.420% |
19.645% |
17.995% |
12.855% |
|
89.807% |
|
6.793% |
2.400% |
0.866% |
0.134% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
10.420% |
18.372% |
26.929% |
21.021% |
13.181% |
|
89.923% |
|
8.398% |
1.597% |
0.082% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.363% |
16.399% |
17.328% |
18.477% |
15.859% |
|
70.426% |
|
14.062% |
10.184% |
5.051% |
0.275% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.336% |
16.174% |
16.665% |
18.865% |
21.135% |
|
74.175% |
|
17.024% |
6.506% |
2.091% |
0.204% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.117% |
3.425% |
9.140% |
12.188% |
18.227% |
|
43.097% |
|
23.410% |
24.780% |
8.169% |
0.534% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.009% |
0.784% |
3.531% |
8.133% |
15.543% |
|
28.000% |
|
22.416% |
31.891% |
15.261% |
2.360% |
0.072% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.060% |
0.397% |
1.227% |
2.575% |
|
4.259% |
|
6.221% |
16.264% |
42.165% |
28.180% |
2.911% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.023% |
0.314% |
|
0.339% |
|
1.650% |
6.251% |
24.879% |
53.380% |
13.501% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.127% |
1.436% |
14.933% |
83.203% |
0.301% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.301% |
86.474% |
12.294% |
0.915% |
0.016% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.488% |
67.193% |
18.210% |
4.077% |
0.032% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.154% |
11.039% |
41.075% |
40.366% |
7.366% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.583% |
9.420% |
39.284% |
48.117% |
0.596% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.054% |
0.516% |
7.424% |
92.006% |
Speculate Asymptote 0.7_dev3 – iCE 4.0.853 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
75.631% |
15.601% |
6.492% |
2.047% |
0.222% |
|
99.993% |
|
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
9.808% |
29.926% |
20.784% |
18.878% |
13.495% |
|
92.891% |
|
4.684% |
1.794% |
0.535% |
0.096% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
10.842% |
19.217% |
29.289% |
22.544% |
10.977% |
|
92.869% |
|
5.730% |
1.294% |
0.107% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.286% |
17.192% |
18.364% |
19.460% |
17.054% |
|
74.356% |
|
13.700% |
7.763% |
3.912% |
0.266% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.425% |
16.857% |
18.162% |
20.706% |
23.918% |
|
81.068% |
|
12.888% |
4.451% |
1.406% |
0.187% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.008% |
0.771% |
3.742% |
9.115% |
18.230% |
|
31.866% |
|
29.041% |
23.797% |
13.025% |
2.200% |
0.071% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
0.346% |
2.664% |
5.709% |
11.994% |
|
20.713% |
|
24.412% |
35.280% |
17.653% |
1.881% |
0.061% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.090% |
0.502% |
1.486% |
3.556% |
|
5.634% |
|
7.567% |
18.283% |
38.225% |
27.387% |
2.904% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.055% |
0.554% |
|
0.610% |
|
1.971% |
7.179% |
23.661% |
52.923% |
13.656% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.159% |
1.476% |
15.060% |
82.927% |
0.378% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.378% |
81.959% |
15.319% |
2.308% |
0.036% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.095% |
56.488% |
25.454% |
7.911% |
0.052% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.358% |
20.305% |
50.453% |
21.870% |
0.014% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.210% |
7.888% |
21.651% |
61.663% |
8.588% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.134% |
8.520% |
91.346% |
Speculate Asymptote 0.7_dev3 – iCE 4.0.853 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
75.741% |
15.475% |
6.499% |
2.010% |
0.258% |
|
99.983% |
|
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
9.712% |
29.626% |
20.433% |
18.120% |
12.910% |
|
90.801% |
|
5.942% |
2.279% |
0.836% |
0.142% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
10.715% |
18.930% |
27.390% |
21.059% |
12.488% |
|
90.582% |
|
7.835% |
1.518% |
0.065% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.395% |
17.050% |
17.960% |
18.916% |
15.680% |
|
72.001% |
|
13.609% |
9.141% |
4.986% |
0.262% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.425% |
16.688% |
17.351% |
19.529% |
21.856% |
|
76.849% |
|
15.197% |
5.774% |
1.965% |
0.215% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.006% |
1.413% |
6.286% |
10.185% |
17.318% |
|
35.208% |
|
25.205% |
29.369% |
9.799% |
0.415% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.006% |
0.744% |
3.646% |
8.821% |
16.368% |
|
29.585% |
|
24.143% |
29.020% |
14.883% |
2.296% |
0.073% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.074% |
0.433% |
1.338% |
2.797% |
|
4.642% |
|
6.483% |
16.571% |
41.198% |
28.071% |
3.035% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.022% |
0.325% |
|
0.349% |
|
1.569% |
6.189% |
24.835% |
53.805% |
13.253% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.139% |
1.433% |
14.794% |
83.318% |
0.316% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.316% |
86.736% |
11.924% |
1.008% |
0.016% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.325% |
66.775% |
18.110% |
4.759% |
0.031% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.445% |
10.738% |
45.828% |
40.865% |
0.124% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.178% |
10.519% |
34.809% |
45.945% |
8.549% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.044% |
0.245% |
8.415% |
91.296% |
Speculate Asymptote 0.7_dev3 – iCE 4.0.853 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
75.699% |
15.436% |
6.250% |
2.196% |
0.367% |
|
99.948% |
|
0.052% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
9.904% |
28.696% |
18.976% |
17.648% |
12.634% |
|
87.858% |
|
8.230% |
2.808% |
0.960% |
0.144% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
10.555% |
17.812% |
25.286% |
19.727% |
14.831% |
|
88.211% |
|
9.885% |
1.843% |
0.061% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.311% |
15.788% |
16.451% |
17.672% |
15.357% |
|
67.579% |
|
14.648% |
11.803% |
5.663% |
0.306% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.334% |
15.651% |
15.945% |
17.713% |
19.624% |
|
70.267% |
|
19.490% |
7.659% |
2.367% |
0.217% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.184% |
5.808% |
13.294% |
16.586% |
21.227% |
|
57.099% |
|
21.742% |
17.947% |
3.177% |
0.035% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.013% |
0.759% |
3.458% |
7.394% |
13.624% |
|
25.248% |
|
19.104% |
36.174% |
16.963% |
2.420% |
0.091% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.050% |
0.339% |
1.057% |
2.163% |
|
3.609% |
|
5.444% |
15.423% |
44.168% |
28.425% |
2.931% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.007% |
0.173% |
|
0.181% |
|
1.405% |
6.219% |
25.270% |
53.069% |
13.856% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.124% |
1.371% |
15.384% |
82.822% |
0.299% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.299% |
88.484% |
10.933% |
0.281% |
0.003% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.556% |
72.266% |
15.110% |
2.054% |
0.014% |
14. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.176% |
12.764% |
52.929% |
27.862% |
6.269% |
15. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.485% |
3.958% |
30.927% |
63.613% |
1.017% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.079% |
0.753% |
6.468% |
92.700% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
21.0 |
23.50 |
0.56 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
18.0 |
20.01 |
0.69 |
2.18 |
0 |
87 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
16.0 |
18.56 |
0.82 |
4.17 |
0 |
5 |
37 |
24 |
18 |
10 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
17.0 |
18.48 |
0.74 |
4.28 |
0 |
6 |
25 |
29 |
20 |
12 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
15.5 |
17.95 |
0.86 |
5.41 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
19 |
23 |
19 |
15 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
16.0 |
17.92 |
0.86 |
5.43 |
0 |
1 |
13 |
16 |
19 |
23 |
19 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
15.0 |
17.35 |
0.84 |
6.59 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
7 |
12 |
20 |
27 |
23 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
15.5 |
16.96 |
0.74 |
7.34 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
14 |
23 |
40 |
13 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
14.0 |
15.89 |
0.86 |
8.96 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
16 |
52 |
23 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
15.04 |
0.87 |
9.85 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
21 |
59 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
12.0 |
13.98 |
0.85 |
10.80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
17 |
82 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Counter 3.4 |
10.0 |
10.78 |
0.65 |
12.13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
87 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.5 |
9.78 |
0.75 |
13.07 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
71 |
15 |
2 |
14 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
7.5 |
8.72 |
0.80 |
14.24 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
50 |
37 |
15 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.5 |
8.45 |
0.67 |
14.57 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
35 |
59 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.5 |
6.61 |
0.68 |
15.97 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-11 08:27 |
214 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-11 09:31 |
215 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-11 10:36 |
216 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 11:41 |
217 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 12:45 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 13:50 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 14:54 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 15:59 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 17:04 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 18:08 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 19:13 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 20:18 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 21:22 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 22:27 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 23:32 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 00:36 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 01:41 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 02:45 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 03:50 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 04:55 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 05:59 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 07:04 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 08:09 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 09:13 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 10:18 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 11:23 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 12:27 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |