For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
75.641% |
15.601% |
6.471% |
2.040% |
0.233% |
|
99.986% |
|
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
9.803% |
29.513% |
20.480% |
18.470% |
12.759% |
|
91.025% |
|
5.869% |
2.181% |
0.787% |
0.138% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
10.762% |
18.859% |
27.526% |
21.329% |
12.230% |
|
90.706% |
|
7.705% |
1.518% |
0.071% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.419% |
17.207% |
17.747% |
18.715% |
15.959% |
|
72.047% |
|
13.617% |
9.041% |
4.988% |
0.306% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
1.349% |
16.583% |
17.393% |
19.497% |
21.902% |
|
76.724% |
|
15.336% |
5.712% |
2.022% |
0.206% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.012% |
1.373% |
6.238% |
9.977% |
17.114% |
|
34.714% |
|
25.572% |
29.292% |
9.992% |
0.423% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.014% |
0.789% |
3.684% |
8.675% |
16.630% |
|
29.792% |
|
23.719% |
29.183% |
14.884% |
2.350% |
0.072% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.075% |
0.460% |
1.267% |
2.839% |
|
4.641% |
|
6.551% |
16.531% |
41.037% |
28.220% |
3.020% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.030% |
0.334% |
|
0.365% |
|
1.617% |
6.417% |
24.773% |
53.303% |
13.525% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.125% |
1.446% |
15.054% |
83.025% |
0.350% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.350% |
86.771% |
11.903% |
0.961% |
0.015% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.282% |
66.714% |
18.243% |
4.716% |
0.045% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.392% |
10.809% |
45.642% |
41.042% |
0.115% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.205% |
10.533% |
34.886% |
45.916% |
8.460% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.041% |
0.268% |
8.311% |
91.380% |
Speculate Pirarucu 3.2.4 – Gogobello 2.1_dev 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
75.487% |
15.418% |
6.502% |
2.221% |
0.358% |
|
99.986% |
|
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
9.371% |
26.248% |
20.188% |
18.755% |
15.754% |
|
90.316% |
|
6.369% |
2.316% |
0.860% |
0.139% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
10.296% |
16.402% |
26.021% |
22.512% |
13.326% |
|
88.557% |
|
9.461% |
1.906% |
0.076% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
2.543% |
25.042% |
21.980% |
20.851% |
19.834% |
|
90.250% |
|
8.275% |
1.348% |
0.126% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.291% |
15.582% |
16.673% |
17.948% |
16.881% |
|
69.375% |
|
15.370% |
9.915% |
5.072% |
0.268% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.006% |
0.807% |
5.352% |
9.229% |
15.162% |
|
30.556% |
|
27.325% |
31.443% |
10.233% |
0.443% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.006% |
0.460% |
2.953% |
7.295% |
15.919% |
|
26.633% |
|
26.045% |
29.933% |
15.218% |
2.171% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.041% |
0.331% |
1.176% |
2.604% |
|
4.152% |
|
6.196% |
16.924% |
41.843% |
30.136% |
0.749% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.013% |
0.162% |
|
0.175% |
|
0.945% |
6.215% |
26.480% |
60.063% |
6.122% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.092% |
6.779% |
92.430% |
0.699% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.699% |
86.319% |
11.984% |
0.977% |
0.021% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.368% |
66.536% |
18.343% |
4.713% |
0.040% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.433% |
10.739% |
46.043% |
40.663% |
0.122% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.181% |
10.705% |
34.392% |
46.241% |
8.481% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.036% |
0.245% |
8.362% |
91.357% |
Speculate Pirarucu 3.2.4 – Gogobello 2.1_dev 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
75.804% |
15.780% |
6.346% |
1.892% |
0.161% |
|
99.983% |
|
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.017% |
30.788% |
19.748% |
17.852% |
12.263% |
|
90.668% |
|
6.053% |
2.346% |
0.781% |
0.152% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
11.110% |
20.039% |
27.796% |
20.323% |
11.790% |
|
91.058% |
|
7.385% |
1.477% |
0.080% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.412% |
17.634% |
18.358% |
18.977% |
15.294% |
|
72.675% |
|
13.245% |
8.955% |
4.877% |
0.248% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
0.637% |
13.202% |
16.820% |
20.644% |
23.735% |
|
75.038% |
|
17.853% |
5.739% |
1.323% |
0.047% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.006% |
1.603% |
6.676% |
10.228% |
17.487% |
|
36.000% |
|
24.150% |
29.467% |
9.953% |
0.430% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.014% |
0.866% |
3.800% |
8.757% |
16.150% |
|
29.587% |
|
23.524% |
29.432% |
15.343% |
2.114% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.088% |
0.456% |
1.307% |
2.815% |
|
4.666% |
|
6.203% |
16.542% |
41.609% |
28.272% |
2.708% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.020% |
0.305% |
|
0.325% |
|
1.570% |
6.042% |
25.194% |
53.097% |
13.772% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.840% |
15.640% |
83.410% |
0.110% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.110% |
86.994% |
11.924% |
0.949% |
0.023% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.372% |
66.879% |
18.104% |
4.616% |
0.029% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.355% |
10.490% |
45.776% |
41.270% |
0.109% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.169% |
10.679% |
34.935% |
45.721% |
8.496% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.028% |
0.236% |
8.370% |
91.366% |
Speculate Pirarucu 3.2.4 – Gogobello 2.1_dev 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
76.204% |
15.606% |
6.264% |
1.813% |
0.111% |
|
99.998% |
|
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.267% |
34.039% |
20.880% |
17.733% |
9.061% |
|
91.980% |
|
4.998% |
2.133% |
0.730% |
0.159% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
10.900% |
21.292% |
29.630% |
19.990% |
11.286% |
|
93.098% |
|
5.724% |
1.142% |
0.036% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.439% |
18.560% |
19.533% |
20.262% |
14.506% |
|
75.300% |
|
11.710% |
8.288% |
4.435% |
0.260% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
0.154% |
7.118% |
10.483% |
16.446% |
22.863% |
|
57.064% |
|
24.101% |
12.535% |
5.589% |
0.711% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.015% |
2.057% |
7.848% |
11.572% |
20.406% |
|
41.898% |
|
22.680% |
25.958% |
8.944% |
0.507% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.021% |
1.175% |
4.785% |
10.602% |
17.983% |
|
34.566% |
|
21.104% |
26.996% |
14.355% |
2.708% |
0.271% |
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.153% |
0.576% |
1.518% |
3.237% |
|
5.484% |
|
7.045% |
15.731% |
39.739% |
25.507% |
6.494% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.064% |
0.547% |
|
0.612% |
|
2.636% |
6.800% |
22.146% |
42.377% |
25.429% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.417% |
4.026% |
27.771% |
67.772% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
87.254% |
11.816% |
0.898% |
0.018% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.292% |
67.348% |
17.713% |
4.610% |
0.037% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.269% |
10.263% |
45.891% |
41.459% |
0.118% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.171% |
10.528% |
35.238% |
45.759% |
8.304% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.045% |
0.260% |
8.154% |
91.541% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
21.0 |
23.51 |
0.56 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
18.0 |
20.01 |
0.69 |
2.17 |
0 |
87 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
16.0 |
18.55 |
0.83 |
4.14 |
0 |
5 |
37 |
24 |
18 |
10 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
17.0 |
18.48 |
0.74 |
4.22 |
0 |
6 |
26 |
30 |
20 |
11 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
15.5 |
17.95 |
0.86 |
5.36 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
19 |
23 |
19 |
14 |
7 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
16.0 |
17.92 |
0.86 |
5.36 |
0 |
1 |
14 |
16 |
20 |
23 |
17 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
15.5 |
17.20 |
0.72 |
6.86 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
10 |
20 |
30 |
27 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
15.5 |
16.96 |
0.75 |
7.29 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
15 |
24 |
38 |
13 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
14.0 |
15.89 |
0.86 |
8.95 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
15 |
52 |
23 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
15.04 |
0.87 |
9.85 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
21 |
59 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
12.0 |
13.98 |
0.86 |
10.80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
17 |
82 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Counter 3.4 |
10.0 |
10.79 |
0.65 |
12.13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
87 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.5 |
9.79 |
0.75 |
13.09 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
70 |
16 |
2 |
14 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
8.0 |
8.88 |
0.68 |
14.14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
13 |
57 |
29 |
15 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.5 |
8.45 |
0.67 |
14.66 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
27 |
67 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.5 |
6.61 |
0.68 |
15.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-11 09:25 |
215 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-11 10:30 |
216 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 11:34 |
217 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 12:39 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 13:43 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 14:48 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 15:53 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 16:57 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 18:02 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 19:06 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 20:11 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 21:16 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 22:20 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 23:25 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 00:30 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 01:34 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 02:39 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 03:43 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 04:48 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 05:53 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 06:57 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 08:02 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 09:06 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 10:11 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 11:16 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 12:20 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |