For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
76.007% |
15.576% |
6.360% |
1.859% |
0.190% |
|
99.992% |
|
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
9.936% |
31.138% |
19.815% |
17.830% |
12.096% |
|
90.815% |
|
6.019% |
2.207% |
0.819% |
0.140% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
11.000% |
19.984% |
27.878% |
20.386% |
11.774% |
|
91.022% |
|
7.466% |
1.448% |
0.064% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
2.424% |
17.479% |
18.558% |
19.270% |
15.091% |
|
72.822% |
|
13.053% |
9.070% |
4.796% |
0.259% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
0.618% |
13.305% |
16.696% |
20.338% |
23.920% |
|
74.877% |
|
17.883% |
5.882% |
1.318% |
0.040% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.008% |
1.559% |
6.558% |
10.269% |
17.518% |
|
35.912% |
|
24.232% |
29.524% |
9.903% |
0.429% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.007% |
0.870% |
3.673% |
8.733% |
16.303% |
|
29.586% |
|
23.582% |
29.350% |
15.245% |
2.237% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.089% |
0.461% |
1.301% |
2.781% |
|
4.632% |
|
6.195% |
16.482% |
41.737% |
28.302% |
2.652% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.014% |
0.327% |
|
0.342% |
|
1.562% |
6.037% |
25.266% |
52.953% |
13.840% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.852% |
15.640% |
83.392% |
0.116% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.116% |
86.848% |
12.027% |
1.003% |
0.006% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.434% |
66.545% |
18.200% |
4.791% |
0.030% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.423% |
10.671% |
45.651% |
41.143% |
0.112% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.179% |
10.715% |
34.893% |
45.774% |
8.439% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.042% |
0.253% |
8.286% |
91.419% |
Speculate Marvin 3.5.0-a8 – PeSTO 2.210 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
77.172% |
16.020% |
5.810% |
0.923% |
0.073% |
|
99.998% |
|
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.606% |
36.934% |
18.503% |
15.841% |
8.816% |
|
90.700% |
|
5.146% |
2.936% |
1.009% |
0.209% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
11.417% |
22.633% |
31.392% |
17.336% |
9.971% |
|
92.749% |
|
5.748% |
1.371% |
0.132% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
0.704% |
15.715% |
18.627% |
22.248% |
19.662% |
|
76.956% |
|
14.432% |
6.510% |
1.995% |
0.107% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.082% |
5.606% |
11.817% |
17.800% |
17.234% |
|
52.539% |
|
16.893% |
15.728% |
13.983% |
0.857% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.009% |
2.084% |
8.146% |
10.697% |
18.277% |
|
39.213% |
|
21.251% |
21.898% |
16.877% |
0.761% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.010% |
0.729% |
4.187% |
11.285% |
18.375% |
|
34.586% |
|
20.145% |
20.471% |
20.984% |
3.814% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.279% |
1.514% |
3.827% |
7.196% |
|
12.816% |
|
14.876% |
26.031% |
30.820% |
15.208% |
0.249% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.043% |
0.396% |
|
0.443% |
|
1.507% |
5.055% |
14.108% |
64.420% |
14.467% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.092% |
14.624% |
85.190% |
0.094% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.094% |
87.247% |
11.657% |
0.985% |
0.017% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9.992% |
66.498% |
18.641% |
4.824% |
0.045% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.479% |
11.001% |
45.680% |
40.736% |
0.104% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.188% |
10.811% |
34.467% |
46.117% |
8.417% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.033% |
0.227% |
8.306% |
91.434% |
Speculate Marvin 3.5.0-a8 – PeSTO 2.210 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
76.845% |
15.325% |
6.126% |
1.542% |
0.152% |
|
99.990% |
|
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.302% |
32.512% |
18.971% |
17.389% |
11.452% |
|
90.626% |
|
5.909% |
2.415% |
0.901% |
0.149% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
11.298% |
21.688% |
28.750% |
18.747% |
11.128% |
|
91.611% |
|
6.951% |
1.368% |
0.070% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.813% |
14.068% |
17.873% |
21.476% |
17.389% |
|
71.619% |
|
15.979% |
9.939% |
2.442% |
0.021% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
0.724% |
13.595% |
16.983% |
20.874% |
22.971% |
|
75.147% |
|
17.996% |
5.521% |
1.319% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.006% |
1.945% |
6.983% |
10.110% |
17.998% |
|
37.042% |
|
24.297% |
28.748% |
9.530% |
0.383% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.012% |
0.864% |
4.274% |
9.362% |
16.740% |
|
31.252% |
|
23.033% |
29.563% |
14.171% |
1.981% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.040% |
0.482% |
1.878% |
|
2.403% |
|
4.302% |
16.460% |
47.954% |
27.508% |
1.373% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.018% |
0.292% |
|
0.310% |
|
1.523% |
5.986% |
23.132% |
54.873% |
14.176% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.481% |
15.068% |
84.332% |
0.119% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.119% |
87.000% |
11.837% |
1.024% |
0.020% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.361% |
66.766% |
18.105% |
4.727% |
0.041% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.320% |
10.790% |
45.835% |
40.914% |
0.141% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.200% |
10.572% |
34.763% |
45.859% |
8.606% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.035% |
0.273% |
8.480% |
91.212% |
Speculate Marvin 3.5.0-a8 – PeSTO 2.210 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
74.697% |
15.309% |
6.855% |
2.833% |
0.285% |
|
99.979% |
|
0.021% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
9.437% |
25.479% |
22.147% |
19.137% |
14.775% |
|
90.975% |
|
6.640% |
1.749% |
0.554% |
0.082% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
4.859% |
28.462% |
22.871% |
18.243% |
12.581% |
|
87.016% |
|
9.002% |
3.896% |
0.086% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
10.407% |
17.418% |
24.863% |
23.740% |
13.136% |
|
89.564% |
|
8.706% |
1.720% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
0.583% |
11.341% |
14.753% |
19.165% |
27.421% |
|
73.263% |
|
20.448% |
5.447% |
0.842% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.009% |
1.009% |
5.202% |
9.888% |
16.641% |
|
32.749% |
|
26.199% |
35.297% |
5.570% |
0.185% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.008% |
0.982% |
3.308% |
6.975% |
14.578% |
|
25.851% |
|
25.839% |
35.337% |
11.740% |
1.233% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.009% |
0.304% |
|
0.314% |
|
1.563% |
9.822% |
45.455% |
37.603% |
5.243% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
0.279% |
|
0.289% |
|
1.582% |
6.732% |
34.235% |
43.894% |
13.268% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.508% |
17.003% |
81.383% |
0.106% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.106% |
86.708% |
12.149% |
1.016% |
0.021% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.751% |
66.991% |
17.713% |
4.509% |
0.036% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.239% |
10.251% |
45.850% |
41.526% |
0.134% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.196% |
10.572% |
35.154% |
45.697% |
8.381% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.037% |
0.267% |
8.247% |
91.449% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
21.0 |
23.50 |
0.56 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
18.0 |
20.01 |
0.70 |
2.17 |
0 |
88 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
16.0 |
18.55 |
0.82 |
4.10 |
0 |
5 |
38 |
24 |
17 |
9 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
17.0 |
18.48 |
0.74 |
4.17 |
0 |
6 |
28 |
30 |
20 |
10 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
15.5 |
17.95 |
0.86 |
5.32 |
0 |
1 |
13 |
20 |
24 |
18 |
14 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
16.5 |
17.83 |
0.74 |
5.49 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
15 |
21 |
26 |
19 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
15.5 |
17.20 |
0.73 |
6.85 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
10 |
20 |
29 |
27 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
15.5 |
16.95 |
0.74 |
7.30 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
7 |
15 |
23 |
38 |
13 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
14.0 |
15.90 |
0.86 |
8.94 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
15 |
52 |
22 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
15.04 |
0.87 |
9.86 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
22 |
59 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
12.5 |
14.07 |
0.73 |
10.80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
18 |
81 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Counter 3.4 |
10.0 |
10.79 |
0.65 |
12.13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
87 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.5 |
9.79 |
0.75 |
13.09 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
70 |
16 |
3 |
14 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
8.0 |
8.87 |
0.68 |
14.14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
13 |
57 |
29 |
15 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.5 |
8.45 |
0.67 |
14.66 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
27 |
67 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.5 |
6.61 |
0.68 |
15.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-11 10:29 |
216 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 11:33 |
217 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 12:38 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 13:42 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 14:47 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 15:52 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 16:56 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 18:01 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 19:05 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 20:10 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 21:15 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 22:19 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 23:24 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 00:29 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 01:33 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 02:38 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 03:42 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 04:47 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 05:52 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 06:56 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 08:01 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 09:05 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 10:10 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 11:15 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 12:19 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |