For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
77.018% |
16.094% |
5.887% |
0.906% |
0.091% |
|
99.996% |
|
0.003% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
10.630% |
37.016% |
18.442% |
16.063% |
8.649% |
|
90.800% |
|
5.005% |
2.921% |
1.067% |
0.207% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
11.563% |
22.777% |
31.349% |
17.139% |
10.024% |
|
92.852% |
|
5.695% |
1.317% |
0.136% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
0.703% |
15.356% |
18.628% |
22.303% |
19.643% |
|
76.633% |
|
14.752% |
6.452% |
2.050% |
0.113% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.068% |
5.629% |
11.915% |
17.832% |
17.008% |
|
52.452% |
|
16.997% |
15.728% |
13.963% |
0.860% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.011% |
2.044% |
8.123% |
10.902% |
18.580% |
|
39.660% |
|
21.051% |
21.842% |
16.626% |
0.821% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.007% |
0.767% |
4.207% |
11.166% |
18.463% |
|
34.610% |
|
19.834% |
20.719% |
21.114% |
3.723% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.317% |
1.448% |
3.647% |
7.202% |
|
12.614% |
|
15.033% |
25.985% |
30.698% |
15.428% |
0.242% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.042% |
0.340% |
|
0.383% |
|
1.630% |
5.035% |
14.272% |
64.482% |
14.198% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.074% |
14.366% |
85.444% |
0.116% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.116% |
87.263% |
11.613% |
0.989% |
0.019% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.017% |
66.389% |
18.618% |
4.937% |
0.039% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.398% |
11.082% |
45.662% |
40.747% |
0.111% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.206% |
10.880% |
34.460% |
45.985% |
8.469% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.036% |
0.271% |
8.312% |
91.381% |
Speculate Topple 0.7.4 – Winter 0.7.4 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
83.244% |
13.239% |
2.875% |
0.567% |
0.072% |
|
99.997% |
|
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
14.219% |
30.109% |
26.513% |
13.747% |
8.946% |
|
93.534% |
|
5.241% |
1.118% |
0.107% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
1.809% |
23.593% |
19.007% |
21.264% |
14.690% |
|
80.363% |
|
9.820% |
6.496% |
2.693% |
0.628% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
0.554% |
18.421% |
22.284% |
20.140% |
16.453% |
|
77.852% |
|
12.154% |
6.810% |
2.880% |
0.304% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.124% |
8.763% |
13.744% |
16.562% |
15.872% |
|
55.065% |
|
15.894% |
14.442% |
12.629% |
1.970% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.029% |
3.860% |
8.556% |
11.029% |
18.369% |
|
41.843% |
|
20.167% |
20.178% |
15.779% |
2.033% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.021% |
1.537% |
4.965% |
12.026% |
16.783% |
|
35.332% |
|
18.347% |
18.481% |
20.240% |
7.600% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.478% |
2.053% |
4.521% |
7.589% |
|
14.641% |
|
13.841% |
22.012% |
24.637% |
24.591% |
0.278% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.144% |
1.226% |
|
1.373% |
|
4.533% |
10.463% |
21.021% |
58.515% |
4.095% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
4.359% |
95.520% |
0.107% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.107% |
87.173% |
11.690% |
1.014% |
0.016% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.047% |
66.221% |
18.690% |
5.003% |
0.039% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.495% |
11.172% |
45.877% |
40.330% |
0.126% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.178% |
10.875% |
34.168% |
46.341% |
8.438% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.042% |
0.251% |
8.310% |
91.397% |
Speculate Topple 0.7.4 – Winter 0.7.4 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
80.094% |
13.869% |
5.005% |
0.928% |
0.098% |
|
99.994% |
|
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
6.415% |
35.806% |
21.668% |
17.942% |
9.556% |
|
91.387% |
|
5.212% |
2.685% |
0.695% |
0.021% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
12.700% |
24.280% |
29.462% |
16.474% |
9.782% |
|
92.698% |
|
5.818% |
1.349% |
0.135% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
0.640% |
16.822% |
18.597% |
21.013% |
19.738% |
|
76.810% |
|
14.791% |
6.273% |
2.044% |
0.082% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.120% |
6.120% |
11.412% |
17.894% |
17.378% |
|
52.924% |
|
16.907% |
15.535% |
13.887% |
0.747% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.014% |
2.112% |
8.235% |
10.421% |
18.067% |
|
38.849% |
|
21.750% |
22.203% |
16.516% |
0.682% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.017% |
0.712% |
4.125% |
11.343% |
18.402% |
|
34.599% |
|
19.995% |
20.797% |
21.138% |
3.471% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.279% |
1.496% |
3.985% |
6.911% |
|
12.671% |
|
14.670% |
26.123% |
30.016% |
16.263% |
0.257% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.068% |
|
0.068% |
|
0.851% |
5.035% |
15.500% |
67.710% |
10.836% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.069% |
11.024% |
88.804% |
0.103% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.103% |
87.187% |
11.736% |
0.955% |
0.019% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.044% |
66.490% |
18.449% |
4.984% |
0.033% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.483% |
10.928% |
45.772% |
40.705% |
0.112% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.183% |
10.804% |
34.582% |
46.020% |
8.411% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.042% |
0.242% |
8.272% |
91.444% |
Speculate Topple 0.7.4 – Winter 0.7.4 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
70.897% |
19.671% |
8.165% |
1.149% |
0.113% |
|
99.995% |
|
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
19.196% |
46.530% |
16.185% |
11.170% |
4.227% |
|
97.308% |
|
1.838% |
0.760% |
0.094% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
9.057% |
16.788% |
35.372% |
20.117% |
10.805% |
|
92.139% |
|
6.244% |
1.467% |
0.150% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
0.780% |
12.680% |
16.372% |
23.904% |
22.169% |
|
75.905% |
|
16.150% |
6.477% |
1.468% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.054% |
3.051% |
11.162% |
19.074% |
17.846% |
|
51.187% |
|
17.511% |
16.656% |
14.466% |
0.180% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.005% |
0.838% |
7.856% |
10.774% |
18.327% |
|
37.800% |
|
21.933% |
22.827% |
17.327% |
0.113% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.011% |
0.278% |
3.845% |
10.620% |
19.565% |
|
34.319% |
|
20.629% |
22.194% |
21.681% |
1.177% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.164% |
1.043% |
3.192% |
6.948% |
|
11.347% |
|
15.680% |
28.380% |
35.510% |
8.896% |
0.187% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
1.239% |
9.148% |
66.142% |
23.461% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.156% |
23.492% |
76.218% |
0.134% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.134% |
87.069% |
11.807% |
0.983% |
0.007% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.227% |
66.903% |
18.129% |
4.711% |
0.030% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.380% |
10.714% |
45.752% |
41.021% |
0.133% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.190% |
10.542% |
34.863% |
46.069% |
8.336% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.034% |
0.273% |
8.192% |
91.501% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
21.0 |
23.50 |
0.56 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
18.0 |
20.01 |
0.69 |
2.15 |
0 |
88 |
9 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
16.0 |
18.55 |
0.83 |
3.96 |
0 |
5 |
43 |
25 |
15 |
7 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
17.0 |
18.48 |
0.74 |
4.00 |
0 |
7 |
32 |
34 |
15 |
8 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
16.5 |
17.84 |
0.74 |
5.31 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
19 |
26 |
20 |
14 |
6 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
15.5 |
17.35 |
0.73 |
6.41 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
9 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
16 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
15.5 |
17.20 |
0.73 |
6.76 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
12 |
21 |
24 |
20 |
13 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
15.5 |
16.97 |
0.75 |
7.27 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
10 |
17 |
20 |
26 |
22 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
15.0 |
16.49 |
0.73 |
8.31 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
5 |
12 |
27 |
43 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
15.04 |
0.87 |
10.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
9 |
71 |
17 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
12.5 |
14.07 |
0.73 |
10.83 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
83 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Counter 3.4 |
10.0 |
10.79 |
0.65 |
12.13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
88 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.5 |
9.78 |
0.74 |
13.10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
70 |
16 |
3 |
14 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
8.0 |
8.89 |
0.68 |
14.13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
14 |
57 |
28 |
15 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.5 |
8.45 |
0.67 |
14.67 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
26 |
68 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.5 |
6.61 |
0.68 |
15.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-11 11:23 |
217 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-11 12:27 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 13:32 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 14:36 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 15:41 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 16:45 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 17:50 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 18:55 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 19:59 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 21:04 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 22:08 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 23:13 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 00:17 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 01:22 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 02:26 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 03:31 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 04:35 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 05:40 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 06:45 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 07:49 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 08:54 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 09:58 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 11:03 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 12:07 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |