For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
71.096% |
19.464% |
8.245% |
1.094% |
0.098% |
|
99.997% |
|
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
19.090% |
46.801% |
16.069% |
11.191% |
4.202% |
|
97.353% |
|
1.859% |
0.705% |
0.083% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
9.020% |
16.761% |
35.598% |
19.865% |
10.920% |
|
92.164% |
|
6.292% |
1.424% |
0.120% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
0.720% |
12.562% |
16.360% |
24.177% |
22.088% |
|
75.907% |
|
16.231% |
6.420% |
1.442% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.065% |
3.110% |
10.888% |
19.109% |
17.999% |
|
51.171% |
|
17.657% |
16.295% |
14.682% |
0.195% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.005% |
0.868% |
7.974% |
10.794% |
18.168% |
|
37.809% |
|
21.799% |
22.874% |
17.386% |
0.132% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.004% |
0.297% |
3.870% |
10.642% |
19.654% |
|
34.467% |
|
20.520% |
22.418% |
21.439% |
1.156% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.137% |
0.996% |
3.128% |
6.871% |
|
11.132% |
|
15.626% |
28.600% |
35.590% |
8.836% |
0.216% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.013% |
1.264% |
9.097% |
66.047% |
23.579% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.161% |
23.634% |
76.082% |
0.123% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.123% |
86.971% |
11.901% |
0.994% |
0.011% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.391% |
66.478% |
18.429% |
4.682% |
0.020% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.340% |
10.664% |
45.811% |
41.081% |
0.104% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.175% |
10.927% |
34.530% |
46.066% |
8.302% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.030% |
0.236% |
8.160% |
91.574% |
Speculate FabChess 1.13.5_dev – Topple 0.7.4 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
71.008% |
19.451% |
8.279% |
1.141% |
0.116% |
|
99.995% |
|
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
19.183% |
47.044% |
15.702% |
11.095% |
4.277% |
|
97.301% |
|
1.894% |
0.701% |
0.104% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
9.003% |
16.540% |
35.513% |
19.994% |
11.129% |
|
92.179% |
|
6.313% |
1.368% |
0.140% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
0.745% |
12.703% |
16.660% |
23.932% |
21.999% |
|
76.039% |
|
16.091% |
6.485% |
1.385% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.049% |
3.019% |
11.073% |
19.393% |
17.809% |
|
51.343% |
|
17.558% |
16.583% |
14.516% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.008% |
0.821% |
7.955% |
10.680% |
18.324% |
|
37.788% |
|
21.973% |
22.443% |
17.796% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.004% |
0.267% |
3.851% |
10.592% |
19.405% |
|
34.119% |
|
20.584% |
23.043% |
22.254% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.155% |
0.967% |
3.173% |
6.941% |
|
11.236% |
|
15.582% |
29.377% |
41.818% |
1.871% |
0.116% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.695% |
53.480% |
44.825% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.292% |
44.649% |
54.924% |
0.135% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.135% |
72.320% |
25.227% |
2.282% |
0.036% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
26.226% |
67.695% |
5.789% |
0.290% |
|
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.178% |
4.350% |
51.890% |
42.498% |
0.084% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.141% |
2.728% |
39.879% |
49.170% |
8.082% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.160% |
8.006% |
91.834% |
Speculate FabChess 1.13.5_dev – Topple 0.7.4 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
70.975% |
19.602% |
8.089% |
1.225% |
0.104% |
|
99.995% |
|
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
19.069% |
46.846% |
16.100% |
11.082% |
4.281% |
|
97.378% |
|
1.817% |
0.710% |
0.095% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
9.100% |
16.670% |
35.525% |
19.959% |
10.827% |
|
92.081% |
|
6.317% |
1.471% |
0.131% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
0.791% |
12.579% |
16.446% |
24.140% |
22.065% |
|
76.021% |
|
16.215% |
6.344% |
1.420% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.056% |
3.059% |
11.023% |
19.037% |
18.099% |
|
51.274% |
|
17.607% |
16.426% |
14.693% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.007% |
0.825% |
7.990% |
10.769% |
18.200% |
|
37.791% |
|
21.839% |
22.715% |
17.655% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.002% |
0.274% |
3.816% |
10.732% |
19.657% |
|
34.481% |
|
20.537% |
22.564% |
21.977% |
0.441% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.145% |
1.011% |
3.056% |
6.767% |
|
10.979% |
|
15.663% |
29.457% |
38.205% |
5.534% |
0.162% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.313% |
5.659% |
68.766% |
25.262% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.165% |
25.259% |
74.476% |
0.100% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.100% |
88.117% |
10.848% |
0.924% |
0.011% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9.414% |
74.138% |
14.688% |
1.760% |
|
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.193% |
7.503% |
48.171% |
42.021% |
0.112% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.176% |
7.511% |
36.025% |
47.828% |
8.460% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.192% |
8.380% |
91.428% |
Speculate FabChess 1.13.5_dev – Topple 0.7.4 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
1-6. |
|
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
70.924% |
19.649% |
8.127% |
1.193% |
0.103% |
|
99.996% |
|
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
19.215% |
46.521% |
16.117% |
11.115% |
4.273% |
|
97.241% |
|
1.919% |
0.744% |
0.096% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 1.26 |
|
|
9.033% |
16.809% |
35.700% |
19.872% |
10.759% |
|
92.173% |
|
6.278% |
1.410% |
0.139% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
0.770% |
12.688% |
16.284% |
24.362% |
21.853% |
|
75.957% |
|
16.094% |
6.547% |
1.402% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
0.049% |
3.089% |
10.922% |
18.740% |
17.847% |
|
50.647% |
|
17.762% |
16.573% |
14.644% |
0.374% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
0.004% |
0.816% |
7.974% |
10.721% |
18.538% |
|
38.053% |
|
21.919% |
22.811% |
16.969% |
0.248% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Igel 2.3.0 |
|
|
0.005% |
0.281% |
3.827% |
10.811% |
19.581% |
|
34.505% |
|
20.472% |
21.548% |
21.311% |
2.164% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
|
|
|
0.147% |
1.049% |
3.186% |
7.046% |
|
11.428% |
|
15.525% |
27.878% |
30.993% |
13.900% |
0.276% |
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Topple 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.027% |
2.489% |
14.349% |
71.877% |
11.258% |
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.097% |
11.437% |
88.359% |
0.107% |
|
|
|
|
12. |
Counter 3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.107% |
94.109% |
5.413% |
0.366% |
0.005% |
|
13. |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.381% |
62.037% |
26.793% |
8.711% |
0.078% |
14. |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.183% |
15.835% |
40.845% |
39.998% |
0.139% |
15. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.220% |
16.642% |
31.674% |
43.057% |
8.407% |
16. |
Cheese 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.073% |
0.322% |
8.229% |
91.376% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
21.0 |
23.50 |
0.56 |
1.00 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
18.0 |
20.01 |
0.70 |
2.20 |
0 |
84 |
11 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
17.0 |
19.00 |
0.70 |
3.38 |
0 |
10 |
58 |
20 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 |
17.0 |
18.48 |
0.74 |
4.18 |
0 |
5 |
20 |
43 |
18 |
8 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
16.5 |
17.83 |
0.75 |
5.43 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
16 |
30 |
22 |
15 |
6 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
15.5 |
17.35 |
0.73 |
6.47 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
21 |
23 |
22 |
16 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
15.5 |
17.20 |
0.73 |
6.81 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
12 |
22 |
25 |
21 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 |
15.5 |
16.97 |
0.74 |
7.30 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
9 |
17 |
21 |
27 |
23 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 |
15.0 |
16.50 |
0.73 |
8.26 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
5 |
13 |
28 |
48 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 |
13.0 |
14.58 |
0.75 |
10.24 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
68 |
28 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev |
12.5 |
14.06 |
0.73 |
10.71 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
28 |
71 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Counter 3.4 |
10.0 |
10.79 |
0.65 |
12.13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
87 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev |
8.5 |
9.78 |
0.75 |
13.10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
70 |
16 |
3 |
14 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 |
8.0 |
8.88 |
0.68 |
14.13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
14 |
57 |
28 |
15 |
Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 |
7.5 |
8.45 |
0.67 |
14.66 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
26 |
67 |
16 |
Cheese 2.1 |
5.5 |
6.61 |
0.67 |
15.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-11 12:17 |
218 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-11 13:22 |
219 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-11 14:26 |
220 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-11 15:31 |
221 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-11 16:35 |
222 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-11 17:40 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-11 18:44 |
224 |
Cheese 2.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-11 19:49 |
225 |
Cheese 2.1 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
2020-01-11 20:53 |
226 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-11 21:58 |
227 |
Counter 3.4 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-11 23:02 |
228 |
Minic 1.26 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-12 00:07 |
229 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
2020-01-12 01:11 |
230 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-12 02:16 |
231 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 03:20 |
232 |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
2020-01-12 04:25 |
233 |
FabChess 1.13.5_dev |
Marvin 3.5.0-a8 |
2020-01-12 05:29 |
234 |
Topple 0.7.4 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-12 06:34 |
235 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Asymptote 0.7_dev3 |
2020-01-12 07:38 |
236 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Igel 2.3.0 |
2020-01-12 08:43 |
237 |
Gogobello 2.1_dev |
Minic 1.26 |
2020-01-12 09:47 |
238 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Counter 3.4 |
2020-01-12 10:52 |
239 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-01-12 11:56 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Cheese 2.1 |