Jan 11 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
2. Demolito 20191229 85.118% 13.571% 1.311% 100.000%
3. Winter 0.7.4 13.915% 64.436% 12.760% 7.552% 1.337% 100.000%
4. Minic 1.26 0.967% 10.057% 55.689% 19.524% 9.308% 95.545% 4.047% 0.408%
5. Pirarucu 3.2.4 11.818% 15.203% 32.244% 28.547% 87.812% 10.617% 1.571%
6. Igel 2.3.0 0.118% 9.394% 19.402% 34.347% 63.261% 25.704% 9.487% 1.548%
7. PeSTO 2.210 5.218% 18.473% 19.535% 43.226% 29.027% 17.096% 10.651%
8. iCE 4.0.853 0.425% 2.805% 5.889% 9.119% 17.558% 47.231% 26.092%
9. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 1.037% 1.037% 13.047% 24.207% 52.625% 8.508% 0.576%
10. Topple 0.7.4 8.563% 56.435% 35.002%
11. Gogobello 2.1_dev 0.521% 35.057% 64.422%
12. Counter 3.4 83.171% 16.400% 0.429%
13. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 16.064% 75.549% 8.183% 0.204%
14. Tucano 8.07_dev2 6.696% 68.074% 25.230%
15. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 0.765% 1.355% 23.314% 74.566%
16. Cheese 2.1 100.000%

Speculate Minic 1.26 – iCE 4.0.853 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
2. Demolito 20191229 83.531% 13.363% 3.106% 100.000%
3. Winter 0.7.4 13.979% 58.035% 15.049% 11.371% 1.566% 100.000%
4. Minic 1.26 2.490% 20.542% 69.488% 7.064% 0.416% 100.000%
5. Pirarucu 3.2.4 7.976% 8.990% 40.497% 33.989% 91.452% 8.548%
6. Igel 2.3.0 0.084% 3.367% 18.984% 38.990% 61.425% 33.473% 5.102%
7. PeSTO 2.210 22.084% 23.401% 45.485% 32.931% 14.815% 6.769%
8. iCE 4.0.853 7.214% 49.954% 42.832%
9. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 1.638% 1.638% 17.834% 30.129% 41.216% 8.623% 0.560%
10. Topple 0.7.4 8.617% 56.305% 35.078%
11. Gogobello 2.1_dev 0.566% 35.072% 64.362%
12. Counter 3.4 83.390% 16.182% 0.428%
13. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 15.798% 75.696% 8.293% 0.213%
14. Tucano 8.07_dev2 6.756% 68.205% 25.039%
15. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 0.812% 1.366% 23.074% 74.748%
16. Cheese 2.1 100.000%

Speculate Minic 1.26 – iCE 4.0.853 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
2. Demolito 20191229 86.187% 13.813% 100.000%
3. Winter 0.7.4 13.813% 68.244% 9.210% 7.283% 1.450% 100.000%
4. Minic 1.26 3.796% 58.283% 28.507% 9.414% 100.000%
5. Pirarucu 3.2.4 14.016% 17.106% 29.507% 29.754% 90.383% 9.617%
6. Igel 2.3.0 0.131% 8.971% 16.759% 38.270% 64.131% 26.427% 7.967% 1.475%
7. PeSTO 2.210 6.430% 17.944% 20.253% 44.627% 31.282% 12.612% 11.479%
8. iCE 4.0.853 18.860% 56.327% 24.813%
9. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 0.859% 0.859% 13.814% 23.094% 53.039% 8.633% 0.561%
10. Topple 0.7.4 8.644% 56.235% 35.121%
11. Gogobello 2.1_dev 0.550% 35.132% 64.318%
12. Counter 3.4 83.191% 16.383% 0.426%
13. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 16.031% 75.654% 8.130% 0.185%
14. Tucano 8.07_dev2 6.616% 68.237% 25.147%
15. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 0.778% 1.347% 23.207% 74.668%
16. Cheese 2.1 100.000%

Speculate Minic 1.26 – iCE 4.0.853 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
2. Demolito 20191229 86.013% 13.987% 100.000%
3. Winter 0.7.4 13.987% 69.583% 12.893% 2.642% 0.895% 100.000%
4. Pirarucu 3.2.4 15.429% 22.751% 23.547% 19.274% 81.001% 14.152% 4.847%
5. Minic 1.26 0.794% 33.913% 28.868% 21.479% 85.054% 13.772% 1.174%
6. Igel 2.3.0 0.207% 17.502% 22.617% 24.990% 65.316% 13.942% 17.054% 3.688%
7. PeSTO 2.210 11.498% 13.353% 13.561% 38.412% 21.771% 24.840% 14.977%
8. iCE 4.0.853 1.443% 8.973% 19.426% 29.842% 30.309% 34.880% 4.969%
9. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 0.375% 0.375% 6.054% 17.205% 67.124% 8.667% 0.575%
10. Topple 0.7.4 8.682% 55.714% 35.604%
11. Gogobello 2.1_dev 0.560% 35.619% 63.821%
12. Counter 3.4 82.895% 16.689% 0.416%
13. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 16.292% 75.235% 8.286% 0.187%
14. Tucano 8.07_dev2 6.716% 68.201% 25.083%
15. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 0.813% 1.360% 23.097% 74.730%
16. Cheese 2.1 100.000%

Gogobello 2.1_dev not included in next 4 simulations.

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 17-15.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
2. Winter 0.7.4 64.398% 18.540% 8.474% 8.588% 100.000%
3. Demolito 20191229 30.951% 52.204% 15.699% 1.146% 100.000%
4. Minic 1.26 1.422% 18.819% 57.874% 21.885% 100.000%
5. Pirarucu 3.2.4 3.229% 10.437% 17.953% 53.438% 13.083% 98.140% 1.860%
6. Igel 2.3.0 4.292% 38.097% 42.389% 27.818% 22.549% 6.789% 0.455%
7. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 3.184% 26.999% 30.183% 27.059% 18.998% 11.919% 11.841%
8. PeSTO 2.210 7.467% 19.136% 26.603% 24.001% 27.031% 19.330% 3.035%
9. iCE 4.0.853 2.386% 2.386% 13.954% 24.539% 47.954% 11.167%
10. Topple 0.7.4 0.299% 0.299% 5.308% 6.883% 14.008% 73.502%
11. Counter 3.4 83.067% 16.498% 0.435%
12. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 16.077% 75.411% 8.306% 0.206%
13. Tucano 8.07_dev2 6.668% 68.248% 25.084%
14. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 0.856% 1.423% 23.011% 74.710%
15. Cheese 2.1 100.000%

Speculate Minic 1.26 – iCE 4.0.853 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 17-15.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
2. Winter 0.7.4 64.114% 16.191% 4.970% 14.725% 100.000%
3. Demolito 20191229 29.669% 39.620% 29.076% 1.635% 100.000%
4. Minic 1.26 3.113% 36.452% 60.435% 100.000%
5. Pirarucu 3.2.4 3.104% 7.737% 5.519% 68.951% 12.946% 98.257% 1.743%
6. Igel 2.3.0 3.944% 36.091% 40.035% 28.505% 28.785% 2.675%
7. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 3.302% 29.446% 32.748% 32.889% 15.500% 10.839% 8.024%
8. PeSTO 2.210 7.443% 20.973% 28.416% 26.308% 30.933% 12.217% 2.126%
9. iCE 4.0.853 1.446% 17.999% 59.014% 21.541%
10. Topple 0.7.4 0.544% 0.544% 9.109% 6.783% 15.255% 68.309%
11. Counter 3.4 83.423% 16.161% 0.416%
12. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 15.771% 75.792% 8.239% 0.198%
13. Tucano 8.07_dev2 6.721% 68.084% 25.195%
14. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 0.806% 1.326% 23.261% 74.607%
15. Cheese 2.1 100.000%

Speculate Minic 1.26 – iCE 4.0.853 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 17-15.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
2. Winter 0.7.4 64.641% 20.627% 8.287% 6.445% 100.000%
3. Demolito 20191229 31.847% 56.085% 10.463% 1.605% 100.000%
4. Minic 1.26 0.208% 11.885% 67.512% 20.395% 100.000%
5. Pirarucu 3.2.4 3.304% 11.403% 13.738% 57.072% 12.735% 98.252% 1.748%
6. Igel 2.3.0 3.968% 38.785% 42.753% 35.922% 20.299% 1.026%
7. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 3.167% 28.160% 31.327% 28.588% 17.432% 9.487% 13.166%
8. PeSTO 2.210 7.348% 20.130% 27.478% 23.101% 28.145% 18.427% 2.849%
9. iCE 4.0.853 6.986% 28.258% 57.489% 7.267%
10. Topple 0.7.4 0.190% 0.190% 3.655% 5.866% 13.571% 76.718%
11. Counter 3.4 83.107% 16.451% 0.442%
12. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 16.118% 75.463% 8.243% 0.176%
13. Tucano 8.07_dev2 6.735% 68.127% 25.138%
14. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 0.775% 1.351% 23.188% 74.686%
15. Cheese 2.1 100.000%

Speculate Minic 1.26 – iCE 4.0.853 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 17-15.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
2. Winter 0.7.4 64.891% 20.465% 13.202% 1.442% 100.000%
3. Demolito 20191229 31.857% 66.558% 1.585% 100.000%
4. Pirarucu 3.2.4 3.252% 12.977% 38.812% 29.345% 13.557% 97.943% 2.057%
5. Minic 1.26 46.401% 53.599% 100.000%
6. Igel 2.3.0 4.800% 40.200% 45.000% 19.448% 15.980% 17.979% 1.593%
7. iCE 4.0.853 8.201% 8.201% 37.190% 30.284% 23.479% 0.846%
8. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 3.275% 22.186% 25.461% 17.829% 25.774% 15.325% 15.611%
9. PeSTO 2.210 7.539% 15.735% 23.274% 21.706% 20.103% 30.392% 4.525%
10. Topple 0.7.4 0.121% 0.121% 1.770% 7.859% 12.825% 77.425%
11. Counter 3.4 82.801% 16.760% 0.439%
12. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 16.331% 75.137% 8.334% 0.198%
13. Tucano 8.07_dev2 6.730% 67.946% 25.324%
14. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 0.868% 1.373% 23.281% 74.478%
15. Cheese 2.1 100.000%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev 23.0 23.88 0.28 1.00 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Demolito 20191225/20191229 19.5 20.26 0.37 2.05 0 95 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 Winter 0.7.4 18.0 19.35 0.56 3.14 0 5 80 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 17.5 18.57 0.61 4.16 0 0 12 65 17 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 17.0 17.93 0.61 5.25 0 0 3 17 43 29 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 16.5 17.53 0.60 6.18 0 0 0 5 23 33 29 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 PeSTO 2.210 16.0 17.25 0.59 6.64 0 0 0 1 14 28 36 16 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 iCE 4.0.853 15.5 16.65 0.58 7.91 0 0 0 0 0 4 22 51 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 15.0 16.15 0.60 8.72 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 23 68 4 0 0 0 0 0
10 Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 13.5 14.46 0.61 10.42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 51 46 0 0 0 0
11 Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev 13.5 14.39 0.61 10.53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 46 54 0 0 0 0
12 Counter 3.4 10.0 10.29 0.39 12.21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 79 21 0 0
13 FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev 9.5 9.90 0.42 12.81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 78 1 0
14 Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 8.5 8.74 0.37 14.33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 33
15 Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 8.0 8.54 0.54 14.66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 31 67
16 Cheese 2.1 6.0 6.12 0.28 16.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-01-12 00:14 229 Igel 2.3.0 Gogobello 2.1_dev
2020-01-12 01:19 230 Asymptote 0.7_dev3 PeSTO 2.210
2020-01-12 02:23 231 Pirarucu 3.2.4 Winter 0.7.4
2020-01-12 03:28 232 Marvin 3.5.0-a8 Topple 0.7.4
2020-01-12 04:32 233 FabChess 1.13.5_dev Marvin 3.5.0-a8
2020-01-12 05:37 234 Topple 0.7.4 Pirarucu 3.2.4
2020-01-12 06:41 235 Winter 0.7.4 Asymptote 0.7_dev3
2020-01-12 07:46 236 PeSTO 2.210 Igel 2.3.0
2020-01-12 08:50 237 Gogobello 2.1_dev Minic 1.26
2020-01-12 09:55 238 iCE 4.0.853 Counter 3.4
2020-01-12 10:59 239 Demolito 20191229 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-01-12 12:04 240 Defenchess 2.3_dev Cheese 2.1
Posted inBayesElo