Jan 12 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
2. Demolito 20191229 86.321% 13.679% 100.000%
3. Winter 0.7.4 13.679% 69.585% 13.893% 2.843% 100.000%
4. Pirarucu 3.2.4 15.785% 29.622% 20.341% 17.021% 82.769% 17.231%
5. Minic 1.26 0.951% 43.312% 29.261% 12.615% 86.139% 13.861%
6. Igel 2.3.0 9.527% 22.478% 25.729% 57.734% 14.262% 22.749% 5.255%
7. iCE 4.0.853 3.646% 14.935% 21.716% 40.297% 33.418% 21.883% 4.402%
8. PeSTO 2.210 10.142% 22.919% 33.061% 14.163% 35.345% 17.431%
9. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 7.065% 20.023% 63.906% 9.006%
10. Topple 0.7.4 9.006% 50.552% 40.442%
11. Gogobello 2.1_dev 40.442% 59.558%
12. Counter 3.4 83.636% 16.364%
13. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 16.364% 76.894% 6.742%
14. Tucano 8.07_dev2 6.742% 70.187% 23.071%
15. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 23.071% 76.929%
16. Cheese 2.1 100.000%

Speculate Pirarucu 3.2.4 – Winter 0.7.4 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
2. Demolito 20191229 100.000% 100.000%
3. Winter 0.7.4 49.953% 41.928% 8.119% 100.000%
4. Pirarucu 3.2.4 46.974% 34.768% 18.258% 100.000%
5. Minic 1.26 3.073% 23.304% 42.291% 14.826% 83.494% 16.506%
6. Igel 2.3.0 21.651% 35.095% 56.746% 15.342% 22.788% 5.124%
7. iCE 4.0.853 9.681% 23.498% 33.179% 40.478% 22.050% 4.293%
8. PeSTO 2.210 26.581% 26.581% 20.317% 35.666% 17.436%
9. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 7.357% 19.496% 64.411% 8.736%
10. Topple 0.7.4 8.736% 50.672% 40.592%
11. Gogobello 2.1_dev 40.592% 59.408%
12. Counter 3.4 83.701% 16.299%
13. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 16.299% 76.876% 6.825%
14. Tucano 8.07_dev2 6.825% 69.620% 23.555%
15. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 23.555% 76.445%
16. Cheese 2.1 100.000%

Speculate Pirarucu 3.2.4 – Winter 0.7.4 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
2. Demolito 20191229 89.987% 10.013% 100.000%
3. Winter 0.7.4 10.013% 85.409% 2.899% 1.679% 100.000%
4. Minic 1.26 50.422% 21.402% 11.551% 83.375% 16.625%
5. Pirarucu 3.2.4 4.578% 33.530% 30.657% 20.598% 89.363% 10.637%
6. Igel 2.3.0 9.506% 21.490% 25.634% 56.630% 15.348% 22.557% 5.465%
7. iCE 4.0.853 3.643% 14.806% 19.389% 37.838% 35.930% 22.007% 4.225%
8. PeSTO 2.210 9.966% 22.828% 32.794% 14.339% 35.448% 17.419%
9. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 7.121% 19.988% 63.912% 8.979%
10. Topple 0.7.4 8.979% 50.478% 40.543%
11. Gogobello 2.1_dev 40.543% 59.457%
12. Counter 3.4 83.570% 16.430%
13. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 16.430% 76.715% 6.855%
14. Tucano 8.07_dev2 6.855% 70.257% 22.888%
15. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 22.888% 77.112%
16. Cheese 2.1 100.000%

Speculate Pirarucu 3.2.4 – Winter 0.7.4 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
2. Demolito 20191229 73.974% 26.026% 100.000%
3. Winter 0.7.4 26.026% 73.974% 100.000%
4. Minic 1.26 53.738% 24.387% 11.667% 89.792% 10.208%
5. Igel 2.3.0 16.365% 23.945% 19.482% 59.792% 12.624% 22.332% 5.252%
6. Pirarucu 3.2.4 23.511% 16.133% 27.122% 66.766% 33.234%
7. iCE 4.0.853 6.386% 18.352% 21.798% 46.536% 27.541% 21.587% 4.336%
8. PeSTO 2.210 17.183% 19.931% 37.114% 9.604% 35.746% 17.536%
9. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 6.789% 20.335% 63.942% 8.934%
10. Topple 0.7.4 8.934% 50.862% 40.204%
11. Gogobello 2.1_dev 40.204% 59.796%
12. Counter 3.4 83.585% 16.415%
13. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 16.415% 76.658% 6.927%
14. Tucano 8.07_dev2 6.927% 70.825% 22.248%
15. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 22.248% 77.752%
16. Cheese 2.1 100.000%

Gogobello 2.1_dev not included in next 4 simulations.

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 17-15.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
2. Winter 0.7.4 64.905% 20.264% 13.366% 1.465% 100.000%
3. Demolito 20191229 31.854% 66.624% 1.522% 100.000%
4. Pirarucu 3.2.4 3.241% 13.112% 38.952% 37.503% 6.236% 99.044% 0.956%
5. Minic 1.26 46.160% 53.840% 100.000%
6. Igel 2.3.0 3.966% 39.829% 43.795% 19.894% 15.882% 18.900% 1.529%
7. iCE 4.0.853 16.116% 16.116% 38.770% 27.446% 16.972% 0.696%
8. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 3.226% 28.171% 31.397% 14.915% 26.481% 12.595% 14.612%
9. PeSTO 2.210 9.648% 9.648% 23.629% 21.413% 41.039% 4.271%
10. Topple 0.7.4 1.836% 8.778% 10.494% 78.892%
11. Counter 3.4 83.675% 16.325%
12. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 16.325% 76.817% 6.858%
13. Tucano 8.07_dev2 6.858% 70.436% 22.706%
14. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 22.706% 77.294%
15. Cheese 2.1 100.000%

Speculate Pirarucu 3.2.4 – Winter 0.7.4 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 17-15.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
2. Demolito 20191229 73.621% 21.863% 4.516% 100.000%
3. Winter 0.7.4 15.579% 38.774% 40.882% 4.765% 100.000%
4. Pirarucu 3.2.4 10.800% 39.363% 49.837% 100.000%
5. Minic 1.26 4.765% 95.235% 100.000%
6. Igel 2.3.0 43.124% 43.124% 20.751% 15.902% 18.772% 1.451%
7. iCE 4.0.853 15.168% 15.168% 40.118% 27.372% 16.624% 0.718%
8. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 32.096% 32.096% 13.809% 26.845% 12.610% 14.640%
9. PeSTO 2.210 9.612% 9.612% 23.536% 21.318% 41.325% 4.209%
10. Topple 0.7.4 1.786% 8.563% 10.669% 78.982%
11. Counter 3.4 83.539% 16.461%
12. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 16.461% 76.673% 6.866%
13. Tucano 8.07_dev2 6.866% 69.391% 23.743%
14. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 23.743% 76.257%
15. Cheese 2.1 100.000%

Speculate Pirarucu 3.2.4 – Winter 0.7.4 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 17-15.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
2. Winter 0.7.4 77.208% 18.843% 3.949% 100.000%
3. Demolito 20191229 22.792% 76.558% 0.650% 100.000%
4. Minic 1.26 64.043% 35.957% 100.000%
5. Pirarucu 3.2.4 4.599% 31.358% 64.043% 100.000%
6. Igel 2.3.0 42.826% 42.826% 21.037% 15.808% 18.792% 1.537%
7. iCE 4.0.853 14.977% 14.977% 39.659% 27.647% 16.957% 0.760%
8. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 32.453% 32.453% 13.926% 26.536% 12.483% 14.602%
9. PeSTO 2.210 9.744% 9.744% 23.411% 21.395% 41.194% 4.256%
10. Topple 0.7.4 1.967% 8.614% 10.574% 78.845%
11. Counter 3.4 83.566% 16.434%
12. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 16.434% 76.729% 6.837%
13. Tucano 8.07_dev2 6.837% 70.371% 22.792%
14. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 22.792% 77.208%
15. Cheese 2.1 100.000%

Speculate Pirarucu 3.2.4 – Winter 0.7.4 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1-6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 17-15.
1. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
2. Winter 0.7.4 91.765% 8.235% 100.000%
3. Demolito 20191229 8.235% 91.765% 100.000%
4. Minic 1.26 64.510% 35.490% 100.000%
5. Pirarucu 3.2.4 35.490% 47.866% 14.377% 97.733% 2.267%
6. Igel 2.3.0 9.286% 35.873% 45.159% 18.725% 15.586% 19.019% 1.511%
7. iCE 4.0.853 17.345% 17.345% 37.820% 27.346% 16.777% 0.712%
8. Marvin 3.5.0-a8 7.358% 22.911% 30.269% 15.947% 26.609% 12.426% 14.749%
9. PeSTO 2.210 9.494% 9.494% 23.376% 21.616% 41.170% 4.344%
10. Topple 0.7.4 1.865% 8.843% 10.608% 78.684%
11. Counter 3.4 83.756% 16.244%
12. FabChess 1.13.5_dev 16.244% 76.966% 6.790%
13. Tucano 8.07_dev2 6.790% 71.092% 22.118%
14. Asymptote 0.7_dev3 22.118% 77.882%
15. Cheese 2.1 100.000%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev 23.0 23.88 0.28 1.00 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Demolito 20191225/20191229 19.5 20.26 0.37 2.05 0 95 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 Winter 0.7.4 18.0 19.35 0.56 3.02 0 5 90 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26 17.5 18.00 0.43 4.57 0 0 1 51 39 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 17.0 17.93 0.61 4.90 0 0 5 39 31 13 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0 17.0 17.43 0.42 6.45 0 0 0 6 20 27 19 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 iCE 4.0.853 16.5 17.22 0.39 6.91 0 0 0 0 4 26 47 20 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 PeSTO 2.210 16.5 17.07 0.42 7.21 0 0 0 0 5 24 22 42 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 Marvin 3.4.0 256th/3.5.0-a8 15.0 16.15 0.60 8.93 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 87 4 0 0 0 0 0
10 Gogobello 2.1/2.1_dev 14.0 14.50 0.43 10.47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 53 47 0 0 0 0
11 Topple 0.7.3_dev/0.7.4 13.5 14.46 0.61 10.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 44 53 0 0 0 0
12 Counter 3.4 10.0 10.28 0.39 12.21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 79 21 0 0
13 FabChess 1.13.4_dev/1.13.5_dev 9.5 9.90 0.42 12.79 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 79 0 0
14 Tucano 8.07_dev/8.07_dev2 8.5 8.74 0.37 14.47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 53 47
15 Asymptote 0.7_dev2/0.7_dev3 8.5 8.72 0.35 14.53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 53
16 Cheese 2.1 6.0 6.12 0.28 16.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.07h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-01-12 03:08 232 Marvin 3.5.0-a8 Topple 0.7.4
2020-01-12 04:12 233 FabChess 1.13.5_dev Marvin 3.5.0-a8
2020-01-12 05:17 234 Topple 0.7.4 Pirarucu 3.2.4
2020-01-12 06:21 235 Winter 0.7.4 Asymptote 0.7_dev3
2020-01-12 07:26 236 PeSTO 2.210 Igel 2.3.0
2020-01-12 08:30 237 Gogobello 2.1_dev Minic 1.26
2020-01-12 09:34 238 iCE 4.0.853 Counter 3.4
2020-01-12 10:39 239 Demolito 20191229 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-01-12 11:43 240 Defenchess 2.3_dev Cheese 2.1
Posted inBayesElo