Jan 22 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-15. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
1. Fire 021819 81.973% 14.148% 3.015% 0.708% 99.844% 0.143% 0.013%
2. Defenchess 2.3_dev 15.933% 63.599% 16.249% 3.386% 99.167% 0.774% 0.053% 0.005% 0.001%
3. RubiChess 1.6.1.1 1.565% 14.821% 38.228% 25.981% 80.595% 17.327% 1.840% 0.206% 0.028% 0.004%
4. Pedone 2.0 0.446% 5.035% 23.783% 33.796% 63.060% 30.239% 5.285% 1.084% 0.268% 0.059% 0.005%
5. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0.083% 2.385% 18.410% 32.957% 53.835% 35.918% 7.884% 1.785% 0.423% 0.130% 0.022% 0.003% 0.003%
6. Nemorino 5.27 0.008% 0.157% 1.566% 1.731% 8.585% 49.494% 21.862% 10.133% 4.951% 2.072% 1.172% 0.837% 0.292% 0.043%
7. Winter 0.7.4 0.002% 0.069% 0.811% 0.882% 3.433% 15.369% 27.930% 19.941% 14.103% 8.980% 9.362% 5.310% 2.773% 1.173% 0.106%
8. PeSTO 2.210 0.001% 0.076% 0.597% 0.674% 2.444% 12.591% 20.553% 20.257% 16.423% 11.656% 15.402% 7.763% 4.788% 2.514% 0.337%
9. Gull 20170410_256th 0.001% 0.011% 0.170% 0.182% 0.840% 4.043% 11.899% 19.998% 21.994% 19.487% 21.557% 12.486% 6.807% 2.146% 0.118%
10. Texel 1.08a13 0.002% 0.026% 0.028% 0.256% 2.288% 9.357% 16.133% 19.351% 20.310% 32.277% 16.160% 11.258% 4.582% 0.277%
11. Demolito 20191229 0.019% 0.442% 1.805% 4.669% 9.004% 15.431% 68.630% 23.026% 26.073% 16.098% 3.416% 0.017%
12. Minic 1.32 0.007% 0.393% 2.481% 5.898% 9.633% 14.352% 67.236% 20.071% 22.942% 20.192% 3.984% 0.047%
13. iCE 4.0.853 0.002% 0.002% 0.015% 0.305% 1.029% 2.192% 4.160% 7.103% 85.194% 12.436% 20.223% 37.918% 14.213% 0.404%
14. Igel 2.3.1 0.004% 0.059% 0.188% 0.581% 99.168% 1.906% 4.809% 14.968% 69.859% 7.626%
15. Pirarucu 3.2.4 0.001% 99.999% 0.002% 0.035% 0.366% 7.690% 91.906%

Speculate iCE 4.0.853 – Fire 021819 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-15. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
1. Fire 021819 68.014% 22.725% 6.777% 1.976% 99.492% 0.471% 0.037%
2. Defenchess 2.3_dev 27.408% 52.779% 15.320% 3.606% 99.113% 0.824% 0.060% 0.003%
3. RubiChess 1.6.1.1 3.422% 15.482% 36.493% 25.519% 80.916% 17.043% 1.805% 0.204% 0.025% 0.007%
4. Pedone 2.0 0.959% 6.124% 23.028% 33.350% 63.461% 30.221% 5.007% 0.995% 0.258% 0.051% 0.006% 0.001% 0.001%
5. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0.197% 2.876% 18.093% 32.529% 53.695% 36.073% 7.709% 1.845% 0.504% 0.137% 0.031% 0.006% 0.006%
6. Nemorino 5.27 0.005% 0.168% 1.561% 1.734% 8.542% 49.748% 21.434% 10.018% 4.828% 2.286% 1.410% 0.971% 0.366% 0.073%
7. Winter 0.7.4 0.004% 0.045% 0.730% 0.779% 3.391% 15.110% 27.173% 19.757% 13.928% 9.125% 10.737% 5.708% 3.325% 1.574% 0.130%
8. PeSTO 2.210 0.004% 0.061% 0.558% 0.623% 2.310% 12.592% 20.016% 19.584% 15.721% 11.602% 17.552% 8.344% 5.586% 3.180% 0.441% 0.001%
9. Gull 20170410_256th 0.001% 0.015% 0.141% 0.157% 0.788% 3.973% 11.926% 19.051% 21.304% 18.417% 24.384% 12.887% 7.798% 3.518% 0.181%
10. Texel 1.08a13 0.026% 0.026% 0.254% 2.308% 9.320% 15.746% 18.486% 19.034% 34.826% 15.825% 11.825% 6.741% 0.435%
11. Demolito 20191229 0.002% 0.002% 0.029% 0.424% 1.802% 4.484% 8.453% 14.175% 70.631% 20.065% 24.343% 21.705% 4.504% 0.014%
12. Minic 1.32 0.005% 0.351% 2.481% 5.450% 8.890% 12.844% 69.979% 17.572% 21.489% 26.128% 4.725% 0.065%
13. iCE 4.0.853 0.002% 0.002% 0.049% 0.876% 2.789% 5.085% 8.032% 11.957% 71.210% 17.145% 21.536% 26.321% 6.158% 0.050%
14. Igel 2.3.1 0.012% 0.038% 0.163% 0.523% 99.264% 1.474% 3.708% 10.555% 75.917% 7.610%
15. Pirarucu 3.2.4 100.000% 0.002% 0.024% 0.205% 7.509% 92.260%

Speculate iCE 4.0.853 – Fire 021819 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-15. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
1. Fire 021819 77.679% 17.300% 3.889% 0.912% 99.780% 0.209% 0.011%
2. Defenchess 2.3_dev 19.612% 59.764% 16.203% 3.528% 99.107% 0.831% 0.058% 0.004%
3. RubiChess 1.6.1.1 2.057% 15.063% 38.113% 25.774% 81.007% 17.021% 1.749% 0.196% 0.024% 0.003%
4. Pedone 2.0 0.513% 5.326% 23.692% 33.632% 63.163% 30.297% 5.145% 1.095% 0.237% 0.053% 0.008% 0.002% 0.002%
5. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0.139% 2.535% 17.785% 33.167% 53.626% 36.093% 7.877% 1.810% 0.463% 0.109% 0.020% 0.002% 0.002%
6. Nemorino 5.27 0.002% 0.153% 1.512% 1.667% 8.677% 49.754% 21.699% 10.098% 4.793% 2.090% 1.222% 0.859% 0.302% 0.061%
7. Winter 0.7.4 0.006% 0.068% 0.734% 0.808% 3.469% 15.167% 27.657% 19.909% 13.987% 9.196% 9.807% 5.501% 2.912% 1.265% 0.129%
8. PeSTO 2.210 0.003% 0.079% 0.585% 0.667% 2.362% 12.838% 20.568% 20.076% 16.193% 11.430% 15.866% 7.907% 4.919% 2.649% 0.390% 0.001%
9. Gull 20170410_256th 0.001% 0.016% 0.129% 0.146% 0.713% 4.027% 11.983% 19.908% 21.807% 19.140% 22.276% 12.667% 7.026% 2.434% 0.149%
10. Texel 1.08a13 0.002% 0.024% 0.026% 0.271% 2.281% 9.572% 16.076% 19.485% 20.027% 32.262% 15.773% 11.119% 5.065% 0.305%
11. Demolito 20191229 0.003% 0.003% 0.029% 0.406% 1.747% 4.691% 8.924% 15.105% 69.095% 22.263% 25.340% 17.690% 3.788% 0.014%
12. Minic 1.32 0.009% 0.360% 2.448% 5.777% 9.527% 13.658% 68.221% 19.280% 22.113% 22.353% 4.407% 0.068%
13. iCE 4.0.853 0.019% 0.326% 1.215% 2.685% 4.937% 8.736% 82.082% 14.024% 21.909% 35.029% 10.962% 0.158%
14. Igel 2.3.1 0.001% 0.006% 0.056% 0.182% 0.590% 99.165% 1.721% 4.328% 13.177% 72.292% 7.647%
15. Pirarucu 3.2.4 100.000% 0.001% 0.032% 0.277% 7.578% 92.112%

Speculate iCE 4.0.853 – Fire 021819 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-15. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
1. Fire 021819 87.006% 10.975% 1.681% 0.303% 99.965% 0.033% 0.002%
2. Defenchess 2.3_dev 11.772% 67.276% 16.667% 3.443% 99.158% 0.765% 0.076% 0.001%
3. RubiChess 1.6.1.1 0.958% 14.737% 38.815% 26.249% 80.759% 17.186% 1.818% 0.204% 0.029% 0.004%
4. Pedone 2.0 0.219% 4.754% 24.059% 33.942% 62.974% 30.578% 5.102% 1.046% 0.237% 0.058% 0.005%
5. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0.045% 2.239% 18.458% 32.975% 53.717% 36.064% 7.787% 1.801% 0.496% 0.116% 0.019%
6. Nemorino 5.27 0.009% 0.160% 1.591% 1.760% 8.428% 49.904% 21.635% 10.337% 4.829% 2.135% 0.972% 0.707% 0.231% 0.034%
7. Winter 0.7.4 0.004% 0.075% 0.762% 0.841% 3.475% 15.428% 28.281% 20.346% 14.134% 8.967% 8.528% 4.916% 2.528% 1.003% 0.081%
8. PeSTO 2.210 0.005% 0.072% 0.557% 0.634% 2.387% 12.783% 20.460% 20.621% 16.801% 11.888% 14.426% 7.413% 4.462% 2.231% 0.319% 0.001%
9. Gull 20170410_256th 0.001% 0.012% 0.152% 0.165% 0.818% 4.089% 12.243% 19.904% 22.422% 19.535% 20.824% 12.605% 6.521% 1.608% 0.090%
10. Texel 1.08a13 0.001% 0.025% 0.026% 0.232% 2.137% 9.502% 16.031% 19.612% 20.952% 31.508% 16.289% 11.244% 3.731% 0.244%
11. Demolito 20191229 0.001% 0.001% 0.021% 0.395% 1.805% 4.719% 9.267% 15.901% 67.891% 24.479% 26.663% 13.740% 2.997% 0.012%
12. Minic 1.32 0.007% 0.373% 2.526% 6.072% 9.863% 14.860% 66.299% 21.121% 23.902% 17.621% 3.605% 0.050%
13. iCE 4.0.853 0.006% 0.106% 0.487% 1.172% 2.686% 5.132% 90.411% 10.565% 19.155% 42.455% 17.697% 0.539%
14. Igel 2.3.1 0.009% 0.036% 0.208% 0.606% 99.141% 1.899% 5.248% 17.113% 67.337% 7.544%
15. Pirarucu 3.2.4 100.000% 0.006% 0.046% 0.464% 7.630% 91.854%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 Fire 021819 15.5 22.95 1.48 1.22 83 13 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev 14.5 21.00 1.32 2.14 15 63 15 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 14.0 19.20 1.33 3.59 1 13 39 26 16 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 Pedone 1.9/2.0 13.5 18.56 1.34 4.16 0 6 24 33 27 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 13.0 18.19 1.32 4.52 0 3 16 29 35 12 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 11.0 15.91 1.34 6.86 0 0 0 3 9 36 26 13 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
7 Winter 0.7.4 9.0 14.63 1.47 8.50 0 0 0 1 3 12 20 20 16 12 8 5 3 1 0
8 Wasp 3.75/3.82 0.0 14.50 2.77 8.90 0 1 3 4 6 13 13 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 4
9 PeSTO 2.210 9.0 14.22 1.48 9.10 0 0 0 0 2 8 15 18 17 15 11 7 5 2 0
10 Gull 191130/20170410_256th 10.0 13.78 1.33 9.78 0 0 0 0 1 4 9 15 17 18 15 11 7 3 0
11 Texel 1.08a13 9.5 13.55 1.28 10.16 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 13 17 18 17 13 9 4 0
12 Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 8.5 12.60 1.31 11.63 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 8 12 16 20 20 15 3
13 Demolito 20191225/20191229 8.5 12.44 1.29 11.88 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 6 10 15 20 23 16 3
14 iCE 4.0.853 7.0 11.61 1.43 12.94 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 13 21 35 12
15 Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 5.5 9.62 1.36 14.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 16 67
16 Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 3.5 7.22 1.33 15.88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 10

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-01-22 06:57 176 PeSTO 2.210 Winter 0.7.4
2020-01-22 07:59 177 PeSTO 2.210 Minic 1.32
2020-01-22 09:01 178 Winter 0.7.4 iCE 4.0.853
2020-01-22 10:02 179 Fire 021819 Pirarucu 3.2.4
2020-01-22 11:04 180 Demolito 20191229 Igel 2.3.1
2020-01-22 12:06 181 Gull 20170410_256th Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-01-22 13:07 182 Wasp 3.82 Nemorino 5.27
2020-01-22 14:09 183 RubiChess 1.6.1.1 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17
2020-01-22 15:11 184 Texel 1.08a13 Pedone 2.0
2020-01-22 16:12 185 Minic 1.32 Texel 1.08a13
2020-01-22 17:14 186 Pedone 2.0 RubiChess 1.6.1.1
2020-01-22 18:16 187 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 Wasp 3.82
2020-01-22 19:18 188 Nemorino 5.27 Gull 20170410_256th
2020-01-22 20:19 189 Defenchess 2.3_dev Demolito 20191229
2020-01-22 21:21 190 Igel 2.3.1 Fire 021819
2020-01-22 22:23 191 Pirarucu 3.2.4 Winter 0.7.4
2020-01-22 23:24 192 iCE 4.0.853 PeSTO 2.210
2020-01-23 00:26 193 iCE 4.0.853 Minic 1.32
2020-01-23 01:28 194 PeSTO 2.210 Pirarucu 3.2.4
2020-01-23 02:30 195 Winter 0.7.4 Igel 2.3.1
2020-01-23 03:31 196 Fire 021819 Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-01-23 04:33 197 Demolito 20191229 Nemorino 5.27
2020-01-23 05:35 198 Gull 20170410_256th Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17
2020-01-23 06:36 199 Wasp 3.82 Pedone 2.0
2020-01-23 07:38 200 RubiChess 1.6.1.1 Texel 1.08a13
2020-01-23 08:40 201 Minic 1.32 RubiChess 1.6.1.1
2020-01-23 09:41 202 Texel 1.08a13 Wasp 3.82
2020-01-23 10:43 203 Pedone 2.0 Gull 20170410_256th
2020-01-23 11:45 204 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 Demolito 20191229
2020-01-23 12:47 205 Nemorino 5.27 Fire 021819
2020-01-23 13:48 206 Defenchess 2.3_dev Winter 0.7.4
2020-01-23 14:50 207 Igel 2.3.1 PeSTO 2.210
2020-01-23 15:52 208 Pirarucu 3.2.4 iCE 4.0.853
2020-01-23 16:53 209 Pirarucu 3.2.4 Minic 1.32
2020-01-23 17:55 210 iCE 4.0.853 Igel 2.3.1
2020-01-23 18:57 211 PeSTO 2.210 Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-01-23 19:58 212 Winter 0.7.4 Nemorino 5.27
2020-01-23 21:00 213 Fire 021819 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17
2020-01-23 22:02 214 Demolito 20191229 Pedone 2.0
2020-01-23 23:04 215 Gull 20170410_256th Texel 1.08a13
2020-01-24 00:05 216 Wasp 3.82 RubiChess 1.6.1.1
2020-01-24 01:07 217 Minic 1.32 Wasp 3.82
2020-01-24 02:09 218 RubiChess 1.6.1.1 Gull 20170410_256th
2020-01-24 03:10 219 Texel 1.08a13 Demolito 20191229
2020-01-24 04:12 220 Pedone 2.0 Fire 021819
2020-01-24 05:14 221 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 Winter 0.7.4
2020-01-24 06:15 222 Nemorino 5.27 PeSTO 2.210
2020-01-24 07:17 223 Defenchess 2.3_dev iCE 4.0.853
2020-01-24 08:19 224 Igel 2.3.1 Pirarucu 3.2.4
2020-01-24 09:21 225 Igel 2.3.1 Minic 1.32
2020-01-24 10:22 226 Pirarucu 3.2.4 Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-01-24 11:24 227 iCE 4.0.853 Nemorino 5.27
2020-01-24 12:26 228 PeSTO 2.210 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17
2020-01-24 13:27 229 Winter 0.7.4 Pedone 2.0
2020-01-24 14:29 230 Fire 021819 Texel 1.08a13
2020-01-24 15:31 231 Demolito 20191229 RubiChess 1.6.1.1
2020-01-24 16:32 232 Gull 20170410_256th Wasp 3.82
2020-01-24 17:34 233 Minic 1.32 Gull 20170410_256th
2020-01-24 18:36 234 Wasp 3.82 Demolito 20191229
2020-01-24 19:38 235 RubiChess 1.6.1.1 Fire 021819
2020-01-24 20:39 236 Texel 1.08a13 Winter 0.7.4
2020-01-24 21:41 237 Pedone 2.0 PeSTO 2.210
2020-01-24 22:43 238 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 iCE 4.0.853
2020-01-24 23:44 239 Nemorino 5.27 Pirarucu 3.2.4
2020-01-25 00:46 240 Defenchess 2.3_dev Igel 2.3.1
Posted inBayesElo