For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
84.540% |
13.991% |
1.344% |
0.118% |
|
99.993% |
|
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
15.071% |
80.282% |
4.393% |
0.226% |
|
99.972% |
|
0.028% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.373% |
5.228% |
67.975% |
20.181% |
|
93.757% |
|
6.111% |
0.127% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.016% |
0.401% |
13.280% |
41.074% |
|
54.771% |
|
38.451% |
4.788% |
1.422% |
0.451% |
0.109% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.098% |
12.929% |
35.934% |
|
48.961% |
|
41.524% |
6.472% |
2.001% |
0.742% |
0.243% |
0.056% |
|
0.001% |
|
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.345% |
|
0.350% |
|
3.495% |
35.425% |
21.286% |
16.403% |
13.096% |
7.408% |
|
2.537% |
|
1.989% |
0.470% |
0.078% |
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.011% |
0.957% |
|
0.968% |
|
4.514% |
19.387% |
21.574% |
20.136% |
16.886% |
13.012% |
|
3.523% |
|
3.105% |
0.397% |
0.021% |
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.035% |
0.672% |
|
0.707% |
|
2.781% |
16.023% |
18.964% |
19.813% |
20.286% |
15.836% |
|
5.590% |
|
4.570% |
0.954% |
0.065% |
0.001% |
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
0.028% |
0.448% |
|
0.476% |
|
2.451% |
11.267% |
20.480% |
22.610% |
20.836% |
17.213% |
|
4.667% |
|
4.329% |
0.331% |
0.007% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.045% |
|
0.045% |
|
0.638% |
6.465% |
13.808% |
17.927% |
22.141% |
27.836% |
|
11.140% |
|
8.513% |
2.461% |
0.166% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.043% |
0.375% |
1.440% |
4.002% |
10.401% |
|
83.739% |
|
41.452% |
27.041% |
13.281% |
1.965% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.075% |
0.399% |
1.994% |
6.555% |
|
90.976% |
|
23.459% |
39.961% |
23.365% |
4.191% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.010% |
0.079% |
0.401% |
1.563% |
|
97.945% |
|
10.448% |
21.762% |
44.498% |
21.188% |
0.049% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.112% |
|
99.882% |
|
2.134% |
6.623% |
18.496% |
70.662% |
1.967% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.023% |
1.993% |
97.984% |
Speculate Minic 1.32 – RubiChess 1.6.1.1 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
85.311% |
14.320% |
0.313% |
0.051% |
|
99.995% |
|
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
14.650% |
83.948% |
1.260% |
0.128% |
|
99.986% |
|
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.015% |
1.044% |
52.889% |
31.945% |
|
85.893% |
|
13.560% |
0.533% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.023% |
0.553% |
23.475% |
34.095% |
|
58.146% |
|
35.194% |
4.691% |
1.379% |
0.466% |
0.109% |
0.015% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
0.001% |
0.135% |
21.821% |
31.147% |
|
53.104% |
|
37.319% |
6.529% |
2.062% |
0.740% |
0.196% |
0.048% |
|
0.002% |
|
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
0.014% |
0.364% |
|
0.378% |
|
3.536% |
35.275% |
21.338% |
15.977% |
12.407% |
7.265% |
|
3.824% |
|
2.921% |
0.777% |
0.126% |
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.037% |
0.965% |
|
1.002% |
|
4.473% |
19.180% |
21.101% |
19.752% |
15.847% |
12.418% |
|
6.227% |
|
5.505% |
0.676% |
0.046% |
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.097% |
0.698% |
|
0.795% |
|
2.832% |
15.913% |
18.481% |
19.367% |
19.222% |
14.763% |
|
8.627% |
|
6.951% |
1.546% |
0.130% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
0.094% |
0.578% |
|
0.672% |
|
2.470% |
11.292% |
20.361% |
21.791% |
19.524% |
15.215% |
|
8.675% |
|
8.071% |
0.593% |
0.011% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.029% |
|
0.029% |
|
0.597% |
6.427% |
13.851% |
17.222% |
21.023% |
24.627% |
|
16.224% |
|
11.825% |
4.123% |
0.274% |
0.002% |
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.153% |
1.339% |
4.203% |
9.519% |
19.405% |
|
65.381% |
|
45.183% |
16.517% |
3.543% |
0.138% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.064% |
0.388% |
1.800% |
4.926% |
|
92.815% |
|
13.347% |
48.767% |
26.221% |
4.480% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
0.094% |
0.346% |
1.255% |
|
98.295% |
|
5.485% |
20.861% |
50.104% |
21.804% |
0.041% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.063% |
|
99.930% |
|
0.710% |
6.140% |
19.531% |
71.583% |
1.966% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.014% |
1.993% |
97.993% |
Speculate Minic 1.32 – RubiChess 1.6.1.1 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
84.946% |
14.133% |
0.814% |
0.097% |
|
99.990% |
|
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
14.908% |
82.355% |
2.516% |
0.212% |
|
99.991% |
|
0.009% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.128% |
2.934% |
67.131% |
23.204% |
|
93.397% |
|
6.543% |
0.059% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.018% |
0.455% |
14.633% |
39.493% |
|
54.599% |
|
38.670% |
4.797% |
1.404% |
0.430% |
0.088% |
0.012% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.123% |
14.837% |
34.638% |
|
49.598% |
|
41.084% |
6.390% |
1.977% |
0.707% |
0.201% |
0.041% |
|
0.002% |
|
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.320% |
|
0.324% |
|
3.452% |
36.048% |
21.495% |
16.220% |
12.830% |
7.160% |
|
2.471% |
|
1.889% |
0.497% |
0.085% |
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.904% |
|
0.911% |
|
4.442% |
19.144% |
21.594% |
20.324% |
16.736% |
13.070% |
|
3.779% |
|
3.309% |
0.446% |
0.024% |
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.027% |
0.642% |
|
0.669% |
|
2.791% |
15.893% |
18.810% |
19.974% |
20.469% |
15.593% |
|
5.801% |
|
4.691% |
1.032% |
0.076% |
0.002% |
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
0.031% |
0.457% |
|
0.488% |
|
2.394% |
11.170% |
20.489% |
22.697% |
20.872% |
16.870% |
|
5.020% |
|
4.578% |
0.424% |
0.018% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.033% |
|
0.033% |
|
0.605% |
6.489% |
13.987% |
17.936% |
22.194% |
27.589% |
|
11.167% |
|
8.439% |
2.528% |
0.200% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.156% |
1.211% |
4.177% |
11.859% |
|
82.592% |
|
45.816% |
26.181% |
9.776% |
0.819% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.073% |
0.432% |
2.046% |
6.237% |
|
91.209% |
|
20.628% |
41.861% |
24.263% |
4.457% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.014% |
0.069% |
0.381% |
1.473% |
|
98.061% |
|
9.027% |
20.882% |
46.378% |
21.728% |
0.046% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.096% |
|
99.898% |
|
1.621% |
6.149% |
19.160% |
70.987% |
1.981% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.020% |
2.007% |
97.973% |
Speculate Minic 1.32 – RubiChess 1.6.1.1 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
84.291% |
13.424% |
2.132% |
0.148% |
|
99.995% |
|
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
15.011% |
77.650% |
6.998% |
0.323% |
|
99.982% |
|
0.018% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.693% |
8.518% |
76.353% |
12.564% |
|
98.128% |
|
1.872% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.005% |
0.327% |
7.199% |
45.398% |
|
52.929% |
|
40.415% |
4.693% |
1.416% |
0.435% |
0.106% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.081% |
7.312% |
39.272% |
|
46.665% |
|
43.879% |
6.545% |
1.966% |
0.681% |
0.227% |
0.036% |
|
0.001% |
|
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.279% |
|
0.279% |
|
3.531% |
35.670% |
21.696% |
16.478% |
13.156% |
7.381% |
|
1.809% |
|
1.445% |
0.316% |
0.048% |
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.929% |
|
0.929% |
|
4.346% |
19.206% |
21.592% |
20.625% |
17.419% |
13.778% |
|
2.105% |
|
1.869% |
0.226% |
0.010% |
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.629% |
|
0.635% |
|
2.847% |
16.211% |
18.884% |
20.254% |
20.968% |
16.263% |
|
3.938% |
|
3.317% |
0.570% |
0.051% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
0.418% |
|
0.418% |
|
2.483% |
11.262% |
20.486% |
22.846% |
21.688% |
18.496% |
|
2.321% |
|
2.155% |
0.165% |
0.001% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.040% |
|
0.040% |
|
0.604% |
6.407% |
13.878% |
18.094% |
22.784% |
29.576% |
|
8.617% |
|
7.020% |
1.501% |
0.096% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.101% |
1.115% |
5.437% |
|
93.346% |
|
37.153% |
32.972% |
19.746% |
3.475% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.070% |
0.403% |
2.125% |
7.204% |
|
90.193% |
|
30.027% |
34.584% |
21.440% |
4.142% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.011% |
0.083% |
0.406% |
1.681% |
|
97.818% |
|
14.061% |
22.388% |
40.775% |
20.555% |
0.039% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.142% |
|
99.852% |
|
2.952% |
7.278% |
17.821% |
69.838% |
1.963% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.012% |
1.990% |
97.998% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
18.0 |
22.44 |
1.16 |
1.22 |
79 |
19 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
16.5 |
21.24 |
1.08 |
1.89 |
20 |
73 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
15.5 |
18.99 |
1.06 |
3.40 |
0 |
5 |
61 |
23 |
9 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
14.0 |
17.88 |
1.17 |
4.46 |
0 |
1 |
17 |
38 |
31 |
10 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
13.5 |
17.55 |
1.14 |
4.78 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
29 |
40 |
14 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
11.5 |
15.12 |
1.16 |
7.88 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
21 |
22 |
18 |
14 |
11 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
14.87 |
2.74 |
8.51 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
6 |
8 |
14 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
4 |
8 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
11.5 |
14.78 |
1.15 |
8.42 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
13 |
18 |
18 |
17 |
15 |
11 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
12.0 |
14.69 |
1.08 |
8.61 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
11 |
17 |
19 |
18 |
16 |
11 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
11.5 |
14.55 |
1.15 |
8.82 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
10 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
14 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
11.5 |
14.30 |
1.04 |
9.28 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
12 |
16 |
18 |
20 |
17 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
10.0 |
12.71 |
1.06 |
11.87 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
18 |
34 |
22 |
9 |
1 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
9.5 |
12.06 |
1.06 |
12.75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
9 |
22 |
36 |
24 |
4 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
8.5 |
11.44 |
1.12 |
13.51 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
12 |
25 |
41 |
17 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
7.0 |
10.11 |
1.13 |
14.65 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
19 |
69 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
4.5 |
7.28 |
1.12 |
15.95 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-23 09:40 |
202 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-23 10:41 |
203 |
Pedone 2.0 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-23 11:43 |
204 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-23 12:45 |
205 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-23 13:46 |
206 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-23 14:48 |
207 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-23 15:50 |
208 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-23 16:51 |
209 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-23 17:53 |
210 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
2020-01-23 18:55 |
211 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-23 19:57 |
212 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-23 20:58 |
213 |
Fire 021819 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-23 22:00 |
214 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-23 23:02 |
215 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 00:03 |
216 |
Wasp 3.82 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 01:05 |
217 |
Minic 1.32 |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 02:07 |
218 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 03:08 |
219 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 04:10 |
220 |
Pedone 2.0 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 05:12 |
221 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 06:13 |
222 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 07:15 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 08:17 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 09:19 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 10:20 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 11:22 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 12:24 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 13:25 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 14:27 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 15:29 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 16:30 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 17:32 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 18:34 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 19:35 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 20:37 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 21:39 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 22:41 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 23:42 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 00:44 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |