For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
84.988% |
14.095% |
0.806% |
0.103% |
|
99.992% |
|
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
14.852% |
82.367% |
2.548% |
0.217% |
|
99.984% |
|
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.135% |
2.978% |
66.992% |
23.195% |
|
93.300% |
|
6.641% |
0.059% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.025% |
0.461% |
14.888% |
39.604% |
|
54.978% |
|
38.375% |
4.646% |
1.400% |
0.483% |
0.109% |
0.009% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.099% |
14.703% |
34.493% |
|
49.295% |
|
41.259% |
6.480% |
2.052% |
0.650% |
0.209% |
0.054% |
|
0.001% |
|
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.317% |
|
0.325% |
|
3.381% |
35.729% |
21.702% |
16.422% |
12.848% |
7.101% |
|
2.492% |
|
1.917% |
0.495% |
0.080% |
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.941% |
|
0.946% |
|
4.487% |
19.190% |
21.602% |
20.365% |
16.848% |
12.926% |
|
3.636% |
|
3.200% |
0.419% |
0.017% |
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.023% |
0.677% |
|
0.700% |
|
2.762% |
16.142% |
18.577% |
19.798% |
20.445% |
15.728% |
|
5.848% |
|
4.670% |
1.087% |
0.089% |
0.002% |
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
0.027% |
0.422% |
|
0.449% |
|
2.448% |
11.275% |
20.340% |
22.747% |
21.003% |
16.665% |
|
5.073% |
|
4.672% |
0.394% |
0.007% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.031% |
|
0.031% |
|
0.623% |
6.472% |
14.079% |
17.901% |
21.840% |
27.797% |
|
11.257% |
|
8.502% |
2.555% |
0.200% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.151% |
1.138% |
4.247% |
11.895% |
|
82.567% |
|
45.934% |
26.045% |
9.746% |
0.842% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.080% |
0.399% |
2.063% |
6.219% |
|
91.236% |
|
20.487% |
41.770% |
24.577% |
4.402% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.017% |
0.097% |
0.381% |
1.488% |
|
98.015% |
|
9.036% |
20.788% |
46.442% |
21.703% |
0.046% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.118% |
|
99.875% |
|
1.581% |
6.447% |
18.822% |
71.030% |
1.995% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.020% |
2.021% |
97.959% |
Speculate Texel 1.08a13 – Wasp 3.82 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
84.617% |
14.429% |
0.838% |
0.106% |
|
99.990% |
|
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
15.207% |
82.130% |
2.428% |
0.221% |
|
99.986% |
|
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.152% |
2.904% |
67.224% |
23.127% |
|
93.407% |
|
6.514% |
0.079% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.023% |
0.427% |
14.884% |
39.808% |
|
55.142% |
|
38.052% |
4.806% |
1.428% |
0.464% |
0.097% |
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
0.001% |
0.110% |
14.556% |
34.392% |
|
49.059% |
|
41.461% |
6.498% |
2.030% |
0.672% |
0.232% |
0.048% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.294% |
|
0.297% |
|
3.471% |
35.386% |
21.471% |
16.743% |
12.823% |
7.243% |
|
2.566% |
|
1.932% |
0.544% |
0.090% |
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.011% |
0.960% |
|
0.971% |
|
4.317% |
19.126% |
21.417% |
20.210% |
16.903% |
13.216% |
|
3.840% |
|
3.395% |
0.412% |
0.033% |
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.027% |
0.667% |
|
0.694% |
|
2.997% |
16.141% |
18.708% |
19.820% |
20.262% |
15.480% |
|
5.898% |
|
4.732% |
1.090% |
0.076% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
0.029% |
0.383% |
|
0.412% |
|
2.491% |
11.115% |
20.329% |
22.382% |
20.953% |
17.149% |
|
5.169% |
|
4.762% |
0.397% |
0.010% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.042% |
|
0.042% |
|
0.673% |
6.841% |
14.371% |
18.046% |
22.154% |
26.868% |
|
11.005% |
|
8.227% |
2.597% |
0.180% |
0.001% |
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.160% |
1.133% |
4.211% |
12.031% |
|
82.460% |
|
45.528% |
26.349% |
9.729% |
0.854% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.072% |
0.434% |
1.952% |
6.261% |
|
91.278% |
|
20.472% |
41.638% |
24.638% |
4.530% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
0.096% |
0.410% |
1.599% |
|
97.881% |
|
9.291% |
20.683% |
46.310% |
21.550% |
0.047% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.094% |
|
99.903% |
|
1.661% |
6.290% |
18.914% |
71.103% |
1.935% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.020% |
1.962% |
98.018% |
Speculate Texel 1.08a13 – Wasp 3.82 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
84.927% |
14.166% |
0.782% |
0.114% |
|
99.989% |
|
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
14.922% |
82.398% |
2.440% |
0.219% |
|
99.979% |
|
0.020% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.133% |
2.902% |
67.017% |
23.373% |
|
93.425% |
|
6.507% |
0.068% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.017% |
0.429% |
14.900% |
39.503% |
|
54.849% |
|
38.422% |
4.753% |
1.407% |
0.463% |
0.100% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
0.001% |
0.105% |
14.786% |
34.392% |
|
49.284% |
|
41.031% |
6.653% |
2.041% |
0.746% |
0.202% |
0.043% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.297% |
|
0.300% |
|
3.516% |
35.640% |
21.462% |
16.502% |
12.857% |
7.170% |
|
2.553% |
|
1.923% |
0.540% |
0.090% |
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.009% |
0.960% |
|
0.969% |
|
4.443% |
19.149% |
21.868% |
20.191% |
16.919% |
12.812% |
|
3.649% |
|
3.171% |
0.453% |
0.024% |
0.001% |
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.034% |
0.655% |
|
0.689% |
|
2.876% |
16.007% |
18.903% |
20.068% |
20.262% |
15.378% |
|
5.817% |
|
4.652% |
1.086% |
0.079% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
0.029% |
0.463% |
|
0.492% |
|
2.523% |
11.343% |
20.188% |
22.705% |
20.719% |
16.933% |
|
5.097% |
|
4.714% |
0.374% |
0.009% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.024% |
|
0.024% |
|
0.651% |
6.373% |
13.876% |
17.657% |
22.318% |
27.801% |
|
11.300% |
|
8.535% |
2.573% |
0.192% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.160% |
1.167% |
4.165% |
11.941% |
|
82.559% |
|
45.634% |
26.390% |
9.713% |
0.822% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.081% |
0.407% |
2.045% |
6.263% |
|
91.200% |
|
20.461% |
41.763% |
24.607% |
4.369% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.014% |
0.094% |
0.406% |
1.563% |
|
97.922% |
|
9.313% |
20.599% |
46.405% |
21.555% |
0.050% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.090% |
|
99.903% |
|
1.597% |
6.222% |
18.862% |
71.156% |
2.066% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.019% |
2.097% |
97.884% |
Speculate Texel 1.08a13 – Wasp 3.82 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
85.203% |
13.915% |
0.786% |
0.092% |
|
99.996% |
|
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
14.637% |
82.657% |
2.477% |
0.218% |
|
99.989% |
|
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.140% |
2.893% |
66.958% |
23.300% |
|
93.291% |
|
6.636% |
0.071% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.019% |
0.418% |
14.903% |
39.510% |
|
54.850% |
|
38.424% |
4.745% |
1.415% |
0.463% |
0.098% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
0.001% |
0.117% |
14.805% |
34.487% |
|
49.410% |
|
41.159% |
6.552% |
1.955% |
0.671% |
0.213% |
0.038% |
|
0.002% |
|
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.335% |
|
0.339% |
|
3.401% |
35.756% |
21.567% |
16.429% |
12.867% |
7.080% |
|
2.561% |
|
1.929% |
0.547% |
0.085% |
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.014% |
0.961% |
|
0.975% |
|
4.426% |
19.492% |
21.716% |
20.429% |
16.565% |
12.797% |
|
3.600% |
|
3.123% |
0.442% |
0.035% |
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.023% |
0.620% |
|
0.643% |
|
2.886% |
15.875% |
18.998% |
20.059% |
20.625% |
15.213% |
|
5.701% |
|
4.540% |
1.080% |
0.081% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
0.030% |
0.451% |
|
0.481% |
|
2.471% |
11.201% |
20.526% |
22.777% |
20.743% |
16.739% |
|
5.062% |
|
4.664% |
0.382% |
0.016% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.026% |
|
0.026% |
|
0.582% |
6.291% |
13.585% |
17.531% |
22.248% |
28.050% |
|
11.687% |
|
8.771% |
2.709% |
0.207% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.147% |
1.079% |
4.227% |
12.051% |
|
82.490% |
|
45.871% |
26.083% |
9.629% |
0.907% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
0.076% |
0.473% |
2.018% |
6.361% |
|
91.063% |
|
20.505% |
41.844% |
24.331% |
4.383% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.013% |
0.089% |
0.390% |
1.556% |
|
97.950% |
|
8.894% |
20.551% |
46.716% |
21.739% |
0.050% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.110% |
|
99.884% |
|
1.701% |
6.362% |
18.875% |
70.904% |
2.042% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.025% |
2.067% |
97.908% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
18.0 |
22.45 |
1.16 |
1.22 |
80 |
19 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
16.5 |
21.24 |
1.08 |
1.87 |
20 |
75 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.0 |
18.85 |
0.97 |
3.45 |
0 |
4 |
60 |
25 |
9 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
14.0 |
17.87 |
1.16 |
4.44 |
0 |
1 |
18 |
36 |
31 |
10 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
13.5 |
17.55 |
1.15 |
4.77 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
29 |
39 |
14 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
11.5 |
15.12 |
1.16 |
7.88 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
21 |
22 |
18 |
14 |
11 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
14.86 |
2.75 |
8.54 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
6 |
8 |
14 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
4 |
8 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
11.5 |
14.77 |
1.15 |
8.43 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
13 |
18 |
18 |
17 |
15 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
12.0 |
14.69 |
1.08 |
8.60 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
11 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
16 |
11 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
11.5 |
14.55 |
1.15 |
8.82 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
10 |
15 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
13 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
11.5 |
14.30 |
1.04 |
9.29 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
12 |
16 |
18 |
20 |
18 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
10.5 |
12.84 |
0.97 |
11.75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
9 |
20 |
36 |
20 |
7 |
1 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
9.5 |
12.06 |
1.05 |
12.79 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
9 |
21 |
37 |
25 |
4 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
8.5 |
11.44 |
1.12 |
13.54 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
11 |
24 |
42 |
17 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
7.0 |
10.12 |
1.13 |
14.66 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
19 |
70 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
4.5 |
7.29 |
1.12 |
15.95 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-23 11:03 |
203 |
Pedone 2.0 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-23 12:05 |
204 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-23 13:07 |
205 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-23 14:09 |
206 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-23 15:11 |
207 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-23 16:12 |
208 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-23 17:14 |
209 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-23 18:16 |
210 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
2020-01-23 19:18 |
211 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-23 20:20 |
212 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-23 21:21 |
213 |
Fire 021819 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-23 22:23 |
214 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-23 23:25 |
215 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 00:27 |
216 |
Wasp 3.82 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 01:29 |
217 |
Minic 1.32 |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 02:30 |
218 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 03:32 |
219 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 04:34 |
220 |
Pedone 2.0 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 05:36 |
221 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 06:38 |
222 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 07:39 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 08:41 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 09:43 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 10:45 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 11:47 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 12:48 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 13:50 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 14:52 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 15:54 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 16:56 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 17:57 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 18:59 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 20:01 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 21:03 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 22:05 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 23:06 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-25 00:08 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 01:10 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |