Jan 23 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-15. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
1. Fire 021819 85.136% 13.949% 0.790% 0.113% 99.988% 0.012%
2. Defenchess 2.3_dev 14.695% 82.613% 2.455% 0.217% 99.980% 0.020%
3. RubiChess 1.6.1.1 0.147% 2.897% 67.153% 23.222% 93.419% 6.513% 0.068%
4. Pedone 2.0 0.022% 0.419% 14.872% 39.414% 54.727% 38.449% 4.779% 1.475% 0.470% 0.092% 0.008%
5. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0.122% 14.670% 34.592% 49.384% 41.063% 6.553% 2.054% 0.713% 0.194% 0.037% 0.002% 0.002%
6. Nemorino 5.27 0.001% 0.300% 0.301% 3.565% 35.525% 21.535% 16.514% 12.891% 7.223% 2.446% 1.875% 0.486% 0.084% 0.001%
7. Winter 0.7.4 0.007% 0.976% 0.983% 4.439% 19.439% 21.685% 20.403% 16.701% 12.790% 3.560% 3.110% 0.433% 0.017%
8. PeSTO 2.210 0.021% 0.670% 0.691% 2.826% 16.074% 18.716% 19.803% 20.688% 15.384% 5.818% 4.620% 1.102% 0.095% 0.001%
9. Gull 20170410_256th 0.031% 0.463% 0.494% 2.502% 11.397% 20.619% 22.763% 20.795% 16.577% 4.853% 4.461% 0.385% 0.007%
10. Texel 1.08a13 0.033% 0.033% 0.611% 6.151% 13.699% 17.710% 22.027% 28.060% 11.709% 8.794% 2.737% 0.178%
11. Minic 1.32 0.004% 0.140% 1.107% 4.177% 11.833% 82.739% 45.561% 26.587% 9.741% 0.850%
12. Demolito 20191229 0.009% 0.062% 0.432% 2.022% 6.471% 91.004% 20.771% 41.586% 24.299% 4.348%
13. iCE 4.0.853 0.001% 0.015% 0.085% 0.403% 1.494% 98.002% 9.212% 20.461% 46.669% 21.614% 0.046%
14. Igel 2.3.1 0.010% 0.123% 99.867% 1.594% 6.223% 18.897% 71.125% 2.028%
15. Pirarucu 3.2.4 100.000% 0.013% 2.061% 97.926%

Speculate Pedone 2.0 – Gull 20170410_256th 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-15. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
1. Fire 021819 85.010% 13.949% 0.862% 0.161% 99.982% 0.018%
2. Defenchess 2.3_dev 14.805% 82.201% 2.658% 0.307% 99.971% 0.029%
3. RubiChess 1.6.1.1 0.139% 2.967% 61.376% 26.503% 90.985% 8.981% 0.034%
4. Pedone 2.0 0.046% 0.775% 22.090% 44.398% 67.309% 30.861% 1.645% 0.183% 0.002%
5. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0.108% 12.992% 27.516% 40.616% 50.397% 6.626% 1.640% 0.544% 0.144% 0.033%
6. Nemorino 5.27 0.002% 0.102% 0.104% 2.772% 39.846% 21.898% 15.960% 11.220% 5.902% 2.298% 1.763% 0.450% 0.085%
7. Winter 0.7.4 0.002% 0.546% 0.548% 4.136% 21.954% 23.982% 19.278% 15.538% 11.107% 3.457% 3.027% 0.408% 0.022%
8. PeSTO 2.210 0.018% 0.456% 0.474% 2.104% 18.001% 21.076% 20.308% 19.068% 13.666% 5.303% 4.265% 0.972% 0.066%
9. Gull 20170410_256th 0.258% 5.101% 15.470% 22.968% 24.740% 23.066% 8.397% 7.665% 0.720% 0.012%
10. Texel 1.08a13 0.011% 0.011% 0.444% 6.782% 15.399% 18.837% 21.897% 25.359% 11.271% 8.443% 2.643% 0.184% 0.001%
11. Minic 1.32 0.006% 0.244% 1.564% 4.932% 12.875% 80.379% 44.180% 25.806% 9.572% 0.821%
12. Demolito 20191229 0.003% 0.089% 0.468% 2.048% 6.313% 91.079% 20.223% 41.921% 24.589% 4.346%
13. iCE 4.0.853 0.002% 0.019% 0.071% 0.408% 1.583% 97.917% 8.822% 20.628% 46.663% 21.754% 0.050%
14. Igel 2.3.1 0.005% 0.096% 99.899% 1.612% 6.452% 18.791% 71.059% 1.985%
15. Pirarucu 3.2.4 100.000% 0.016% 2.019% 97.965%

Speculate Pedone 2.0 – Gull 20170410_256th 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-15. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
1. Fire 021819 85.304% 13.894% 0.728% 0.065% 99.991% 0.009%
2. Defenchess 2.3_dev 14.552% 82.972% 2.331% 0.134% 99.989% 0.011%
3. RubiChess 1.6.1.1 0.141% 2.877% 70.659% 20.962% 94.639% 5.336% 0.025%
4. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0.105% 15.879% 36.896% 52.880% 37.684% 6.335% 1.988% 0.810% 0.249% 0.052% 0.002% 0.002%
5. Pedone 2.0 0.003% 0.152% 10.362% 39.647% 50.164% 43.946% 4.691% 1.010% 0.180% 0.009%
6. Nemorino 5.27 0.002% 0.315% 0.317% 3.382% 35.658% 20.816% 16.243% 13.365% 7.591% 2.628% 2.009% 0.534% 0.085%
7. Winter 0.7.4 0.010% 1.070% 1.080% 4.673% 18.911% 20.661% 20.286% 16.942% 13.609% 3.838% 3.386% 0.431% 0.021%
8. Gull 20170410_256th 0.106% 0.106% 1.519% 12.856% 24.373% 24.609% 20.089% 13.894% 2.554% 2.455% 0.099%
9. PeSTO 2.210 0.029% 0.763% 0.792% 2.869% 15.341% 17.981% 19.763% 21.214% 16.067% 5.973% 4.798% 1.100% 0.075%
10. Texel 1.08a13 0.042% 0.042% 0.571% 6.173% 13.008% 16.763% 22.040% 29.512% 11.891% 9.028% 2.685% 0.178%
11. Minic 1.32 0.002% 0.095% 0.890% 3.643% 11.229% 84.141% 46.781% 26.453% 10.026% 0.881%
12. Demolito 20191229 0.008% 0.054% 0.382% 2.059% 6.461% 91.036% 20.774% 41.745% 24.333% 4.184%
13. iCE 4.0.853 0.014% 0.074% 0.379% 1.472% 98.061% 9.217% 20.704% 46.490% 21.604% 0.046%
14. Igel 2.3.1 0.011% 0.113% 99.876% 1.550% 6.249% 18.766% 71.286% 2.025%
15. Pirarucu 3.2.4 100.000% 0.026% 2.045% 97.929%

Speculate Pedone 2.0 – Gull 20170410_256th 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-15. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
1. Fire 021819 85.186% 14.040% 0.740% 0.031% 99.997% 0.003%
2. Defenchess 2.3_dev 14.687% 82.878% 2.340% 0.087% 99.992% 0.008%
3. RubiChess 1.6.1.1 0.127% 2.978% 74.701% 19.123% 96.929% 2.901% 0.168% 0.002%
4. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0.085% 17.691% 46.789% 64.565% 24.727% 6.652% 2.681% 1.027% 0.274% 0.074%
5. Pedone 2.0 0.019% 4.360% 28.577% 32.956% 49.022% 11.369% 4.494% 1.705% 0.423% 0.031%
6. Nemorino 5.27 0.006% 0.694% 0.700% 5.064% 27.488% 21.447% 17.966% 15.695% 8.819% 2.821% 2.227% 0.501% 0.093%
7. Gull 20170410_256th 0.112% 1.810% 1.922% 8.233% 22.631% 27.454% 20.435% 12.907% 5.949% 0.469% 0.462% 0.007%
8. Winter 0.7.4 0.010% 1.729% 1.739% 5.239% 14.482% 18.235% 22.498% 18.716% 15.085% 4.006% 3.510% 0.482% 0.014%
9. PeSTO 2.210 0.040% 1.089% 1.129% 4.016% 12.003% 15.279% 20.402% 23.411% 17.735% 6.025% 4.906% 1.031% 0.087% 0.001%
10. Texel 1.08a13 0.071% 0.071% 0.787% 5.207% 10.347% 15.018% 23.030% 32.877% 12.663% 9.564% 2.875% 0.224%
11. Minic 1.32 0.032% 0.553% 3.101% 11.185% 85.129% 47.335% 26.925% 10.005% 0.864%
12. Demolito 20191229 0.022% 0.327% 2.050% 6.662% 90.939% 21.235% 41.594% 23.768% 4.342%
13. iCE 4.0.853 0.007% 0.069% 0.387% 1.489% 98.048% 9.174% 20.310% 46.737% 21.765% 0.062%
14. Igel 2.3.1 0.006% 0.094% 99.900% 1.587% 6.275% 19.042% 70.999% 1.997%
15. Pirarucu 3.2.4 100.000% 0.030% 2.029% 97.941%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 Fire 021819 18.0 22.44 1.16 1.22 80 19 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev 16.5 21.22 1.08 1.88 19 74 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 16.0 18.83 0.97 3.47 0 4 59 26 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 Pedone 1.9/2.0 14.0 17.85 1.17 4.47 0 1 18 36 31 11 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 13.5 17.52 1.15 4.80 0 0 11 28 39 16 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 Wasp 3.75/3.82 0.0 15.16 2.73 8.14 1 2 6 7 9 15 9 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 3
7 Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 11.5 15.11 1.16 7.91 0 0 0 1 4 20 22 18 14 11 7 2 1 0 0
8 Winter 0.7.4 11.5 14.77 1.15 8.45 0 0 0 1 3 13 18 18 17 15 11 4 1 0 0
9 Gull 191130/20170410_256th 12.0 14.68 1.07 8.63 0 0 0 0 2 10 17 19 19 16 11 5 1 0 0
10 PeSTO 2.210 11.5 14.52 1.15 8.87 0 0 0 0 2 9 14 17 18 18 14 6 1 0 0
11 Texel 1.08a13 11.5 14.24 1.04 9.39 0 0 0 0 1 5 11 15 18 20 19 8 3 0 0
12 Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 10.5 12.82 0.96 11.79 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 9 19 37 21 7 1
13 Demolito 20191225/20191229 9.5 12.05 1.05 12.81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 8 20 37 26 4
14 iCE 4.0.853 8.5 11.42 1.12 13.56 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 10 24 43 17
15 Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 7.0 10.10 1.13 14.67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 18 70
16 Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 4.5 7.27 1.12 15.95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-01-23 12:10 204 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 Demolito 20191229
2020-01-23 13:12 205 Nemorino 5.27 Fire 021819
2020-01-23 14:14 206 Defenchess 2.3_dev Winter 0.7.4
2020-01-23 15:16 207 Igel 2.3.1 PeSTO 2.210
2020-01-23 16:17 208 Pirarucu 3.2.4 iCE 4.0.853
2020-01-23 17:19 209 Pirarucu 3.2.4 Minic 1.32
2020-01-23 18:21 210 iCE 4.0.853 Igel 2.3.1
2020-01-23 19:23 211 PeSTO 2.210 Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-01-23 20:25 212 Winter 0.7.4 Nemorino 5.27
2020-01-23 21:26 213 Fire 021819 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17
2020-01-23 22:28 214 Demolito 20191229 Pedone 2.0
2020-01-23 23:30 215 Gull 20170410_256th Texel 1.08a13
2020-01-24 00:32 216 Wasp 3.82 RubiChess 1.6.1.1
2020-01-24 01:34 217 Minic 1.32 Wasp 3.82
2020-01-24 02:36 218 RubiChess 1.6.1.1 Gull 20170410_256th
2020-01-24 03:37 219 Texel 1.08a13 Demolito 20191229
2020-01-24 04:39 220 Pedone 2.0 Fire 021819
2020-01-24 05:41 221 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 Winter 0.7.4
2020-01-24 06:43 222 Nemorino 5.27 PeSTO 2.210
2020-01-24 07:45 223 Defenchess 2.3_dev iCE 4.0.853
2020-01-24 08:47 224 Igel 2.3.1 Pirarucu 3.2.4
2020-01-24 09:48 225 Igel 2.3.1 Minic 1.32
2020-01-24 10:50 226 Pirarucu 3.2.4 Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-01-24 11:52 227 iCE 4.0.853 Nemorino 5.27
2020-01-24 12:54 228 PeSTO 2.210 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17
2020-01-24 13:56 229 Winter 0.7.4 Pedone 2.0
2020-01-24 14:58 230 Fire 021819 Texel 1.08a13
2020-01-24 15:59 231 Demolito 20191229 RubiChess 1.6.1.1
2020-01-24 17:01 232 Gull 20170410_256th Wasp 3.82
2020-01-24 18:03 233 Minic 1.32 Gull 20170410_256th
2020-01-24 19:05 234 Wasp 3.82 Demolito 20191229
2020-01-24 20:07 235 RubiChess 1.6.1.1 Fire 021819
2020-01-24 21:08 236 Texel 1.08a13 Winter 0.7.4
2020-01-24 22:10 237 Pedone 2.0 PeSTO 2.210
2020-01-24 23:12 238 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 iCE 4.0.853
2020-01-25 00:14 239 Nemorino 5.27 Pirarucu 3.2.4
2020-01-25 01:16 240 Defenchess 2.3_dev Igel 2.3.1
Posted inBayesElo