For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
84.950% |
14.034% |
0.850% |
0.150% |
|
99.984% |
|
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
14.897% |
82.194% |
2.553% |
0.332% |
|
99.976% |
|
0.023% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.121% |
2.900% |
61.714% |
26.332% |
|
91.067% |
|
8.889% |
0.044% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.032% |
0.773% |
22.130% |
44.707% |
|
67.642% |
|
30.539% |
1.645% |
0.171% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.099% |
12.730% |
27.443% |
|
40.272% |
|
50.803% |
6.623% |
1.592% |
0.518% |
0.163% |
0.029% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.120% |
|
0.123% |
|
2.692% |
40.053% |
21.791% |
15.872% |
11.321% |
5.912% |
|
2.236% |
|
1.689% |
0.481% |
0.066% |
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.513% |
|
0.516% |
|
4.163% |
21.598% |
24.020% |
19.613% |
15.339% |
11.283% |
|
3.468% |
|
3.034% |
0.404% |
0.030% |
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.017% |
0.396% |
|
0.413% |
|
2.145% |
18.138% |
21.155% |
19.958% |
19.108% |
13.650% |
|
5.433% |
|
4.298% |
1.061% |
0.074% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.267% |
5.179% |
15.701% |
22.952% |
24.803% |
22.856% |
|
8.242% |
|
7.520% |
0.703% |
0.019% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
|
0.007% |
|
0.463% |
6.700% |
15.236% |
18.906% |
21.826% |
25.537% |
|
11.325% |
|
8.436% |
2.684% |
0.205% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
0.232% |
1.581% |
4.883% |
12.757% |
|
80.537% |
|
44.284% |
25.882% |
9.556% |
0.815% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.081% |
0.496% |
2.134% |
6.395% |
|
90.886% |
|
20.326% |
41.870% |
24.313% |
4.377% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.021% |
0.101% |
0.415% |
1.477% |
|
97.985% |
|
8.870% |
20.516% |
46.672% |
21.879% |
0.048% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.104% |
|
99.888% |
|
1.543% |
6.399% |
19.045% |
70.879% |
2.022% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.020% |
2.050% |
97.930% |
Speculate Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 – Demolito 20191229 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
84.588% |
14.335% |
0.890% |
0.167% |
|
99.980% |
|
0.020% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
15.243% |
81.929% |
2.442% |
0.334% |
|
99.948% |
|
0.052% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.133% |
2.792% |
56.750% |
28.064% |
|
87.739% |
|
12.215% |
0.046% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.034% |
0.740% |
20.849% |
37.663% |
|
59.286% |
|
38.650% |
1.871% |
0.189% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
0.002% |
0.204% |
19.039% |
33.047% |
|
52.292% |
|
43.766% |
3.405% |
0.459% |
0.068% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.063% |
|
0.063% |
|
1.253% |
41.846% |
21.837% |
15.730% |
11.566% |
5.735% |
|
1.970% |
|
1.536% |
0.389% |
0.045% |
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.386% |
|
0.392% |
|
2.489% |
22.752% |
24.423% |
19.646% |
15.475% |
11.795% |
|
3.028% |
|
2.773% |
0.242% |
0.013% |
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.024% |
0.273% |
|
0.297% |
|
1.297% |
18.407% |
21.215% |
20.366% |
19.667% |
14.097% |
|
4.654% |
|
3.978% |
0.625% |
0.051% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.060% |
4.947% |
15.727% |
22.937% |
24.851% |
23.508% |
|
7.970% |
|
7.651% |
0.318% |
0.001% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
|
0.003% |
|
0.198% |
6.715% |
15.875% |
19.508% |
22.219% |
26.709% |
|
8.773% |
|
6.869% |
1.756% |
0.148% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
0.251% |
1.616% |
5.234% |
13.620% |
|
79.269% |
|
50.590% |
20.909% |
7.023% |
0.747% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.025% |
0.537% |
2.763% |
|
96.674% |
|
13.904% |
42.911% |
32.725% |
7.134% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.023% |
0.100% |
0.434% |
1.639% |
|
97.803% |
|
10.812% |
24.546% |
41.110% |
21.272% |
0.063% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.134% |
|
99.859% |
|
1.887% |
8.304% |
18.861% |
68.815% |
1.992% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.023% |
2.032% |
97.945% |
Speculate Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 – Demolito 20191229 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
85.079% |
13.873% |
0.923% |
0.121% |
|
99.996% |
|
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
14.740% |
82.280% |
2.700% |
0.269% |
|
99.989% |
|
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.141% |
2.996% |
65.060% |
25.012% |
|
93.209% |
|
6.763% |
0.028% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.040% |
0.822% |
23.266% |
48.250% |
|
72.378% |
|
25.952% |
1.500% |
0.166% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.029% |
8.019% |
25.092% |
|
33.140% |
|
56.524% |
7.929% |
1.801% |
0.499% |
0.107% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.135% |
|
0.137% |
|
3.016% |
39.881% |
22.016% |
15.647% |
11.248% |
5.913% |
|
2.142% |
|
1.645% |
0.420% |
0.077% |
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.597% |
|
0.601% |
|
4.498% |
21.356% |
23.879% |
19.522% |
15.647% |
11.168% |
|
3.329% |
|
2.826% |
0.471% |
0.032% |
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.026% |
0.510% |
|
0.536% |
|
2.483% |
17.679% |
20.921% |
20.099% |
18.970% |
13.715% |
|
5.597% |
|
4.370% |
1.152% |
0.073% |
0.002% |
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.278% |
5.143% |
15.578% |
22.871% |
25.024% |
22.837% |
|
8.269% |
|
7.517% |
0.738% |
0.014% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
|
0.014% |
|
0.471% |
6.476% |
15.338% |
19.342% |
21.449% |
24.924% |
|
11.986% |
|
8.750% |
3.026% |
0.210% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.258% |
1.570% |
4.987% |
12.544% |
|
80.634% |
|
41.618% |
27.385% |
10.712% |
0.919% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.021% |
0.332% |
2.185% |
7.240% |
|
90.222% |
|
23.576% |
44.119% |
20.404% |
2.123% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.022% |
0.114% |
0.373% |
1.569% |
|
97.921% |
|
8.288% |
17.671% |
49.695% |
22.214% |
0.053% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
0.090% |
|
99.900% |
|
1.410% |
5.018% |
18.758% |
72.752% |
1.962% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.025% |
1.990% |
97.985% |
Speculate Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 – Demolito 20191229 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
85.084% |
13.929% |
0.851% |
0.136% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
14.748% |
82.347% |
2.629% |
0.270% |
|
99.994% |
|
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.125% |
2.969% |
69.004% |
24.223% |
|
96.321% |
|
3.662% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.043% |
0.754% |
24.543% |
57.981% |
|
83.321% |
|
15.343% |
1.207% |
0.126% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.001% |
2.933% |
15.724% |
|
18.658% |
|
61.485% |
13.139% |
4.289% |
1.720% |
0.604% |
0.104% |
|
0.001% |
|
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.221% |
|
0.226% |
|
6.452% |
35.856% |
21.531% |
15.709% |
10.790% |
6.192% |
|
3.244% |
|
2.321% |
0.727% |
0.196% |
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.734% |
|
0.738% |
|
7.331% |
20.275% |
23.069% |
18.712% |
15.015% |
10.656% |
|
4.204% |
|
3.288% |
0.851% |
0.065% |
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.031% |
0.696% |
|
0.727% |
|
3.913% |
17.232% |
20.399% |
19.519% |
17.959% |
12.859% |
|
7.392% |
|
5.394% |
1.845% |
0.150% |
0.003% |
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.708% |
5.573% |
15.316% |
22.504% |
24.230% |
22.025% |
|
9.644% |
|
7.866% |
1.727% |
0.051% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
|
0.015% |
|
1.100% |
6.653% |
14.588% |
18.416% |
20.542% |
22.015% |
|
16.671% |
|
11.794% |
4.556% |
0.319% |
0.002% |
|
11. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.035% |
0.452% |
1.833% |
5.883% |
13.733% |
|
78.064% |
|
32.011% |
36.085% |
9.565% |
0.403% |
|
12. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
0.209% |
1.486% |
4.579% |
11.063% |
|
82.653% |
|
30.992% |
36.582% |
14.001% |
1.078% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.021% |
0.098% |
0.394% |
1.287% |
|
98.197% |
|
5.452% |
14.391% |
56.073% |
22.218% |
0.063% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.066% |
|
99.930% |
|
0.881% |
3.236% |
19.552% |
74.207% |
2.054% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.028% |
2.089% |
97.883% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
18.0 |
22.43 |
1.16 |
1.22 |
80 |
19 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
16.5 |
21.22 |
1.08 |
1.89 |
20 |
74 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.0 |
18.84 |
0.97 |
3.56 |
0 |
4 |
53 |
30 |
12 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
18.27 |
1.07 |
4.13 |
0 |
2 |
26 |
39 |
25 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
13.5 |
17.53 |
1.15 |
4.89 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
23 |
45 |
17 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.14 |
2.74 |
8.15 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
6 |
9 |
17 |
10 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
7 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
11.5 |
15.10 |
1.16 |
7.82 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
22 |
24 |
18 |
14 |
10 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
11.5 |
14.76 |
1.15 |
8.35 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
14 |
20 |
19 |
16 |
14 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
11.5 |
14.53 |
1.15 |
8.76 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
10 |
16 |
18 |
18 |
17 |
13 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
12.0 |
14.28 |
0.98 |
9.25 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
12 |
17 |
20 |
20 |
16 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
11.5 |
14.25 |
1.04 |
9.28 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
12 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
17 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
10.5 |
12.82 |
0.97 |
11.72 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
10 |
20 |
35 |
20 |
7 |
1 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
9.5 |
12.04 |
1.05 |
12.80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
8 |
20 |
37 |
25 |
4 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
8.5 |
11.42 |
1.12 |
13.55 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
10 |
24 |
43 |
17 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
7.0 |
10.09 |
1.13 |
14.68 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
18 |
70 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
4.5 |
7.27 |
1.12 |
15.95 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-23 13:10 |
205 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-23 14:12 |
206 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-23 15:14 |
207 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-23 16:15 |
208 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-23 17:17 |
209 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-23 18:19 |
210 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
2020-01-23 19:21 |
211 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-23 20:23 |
212 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-23 21:24 |
213 |
Fire 021819 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-23 22:26 |
214 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-23 23:28 |
215 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 00:30 |
216 |
Wasp 3.82 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 01:32 |
217 |
Minic 1.32 |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 02:34 |
218 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 03:35 |
219 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 04:37 |
220 |
Pedone 2.0 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 05:39 |
221 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 06:41 |
222 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 07:43 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 08:44 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 09:46 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 10:48 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 11:50 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 12:52 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 13:53 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 14:55 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 15:57 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 16:59 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 18:01 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 19:03 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 20:04 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 21:06 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 22:08 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 23:10 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-25 00:12 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 01:13 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |