For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
84.809% |
14.193% |
0.834% |
0.155% |
|
99.991% |
|
0.009% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
15.018% |
82.006% |
2.686% |
0.279% |
|
99.989% |
|
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.142% |
2.981% |
64.949% |
25.223% |
|
93.295% |
|
6.673% |
0.032% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.031% |
0.792% |
23.248% |
48.415% |
|
72.486% |
|
25.807% |
1.538% |
0.164% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.028% |
8.252% |
24.660% |
|
32.940% |
|
56.598% |
8.006% |
1.840% |
0.510% |
0.098% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.154% |
|
0.157% |
|
3.072% |
39.630% |
21.907% |
15.729% |
11.413% |
5.919% |
|
2.173% |
|
1.626% |
0.471% |
0.076% |
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.641% |
|
0.645% |
|
4.617% |
21.059% |
23.833% |
19.613% |
15.601% |
11.141% |
|
3.491% |
|
2.991% |
0.470% |
0.030% |
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.024% |
0.463% |
|
0.487% |
|
2.485% |
17.834% |
20.992% |
20.137% |
18.919% |
13.463% |
|
5.683% |
|
4.368% |
1.209% |
0.105% |
0.001% |
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.221% |
5.142% |
15.730% |
22.739% |
24.765% |
23.103% |
|
8.300% |
|
7.519% |
0.764% |
0.017% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
|
0.010% |
|
0.507% |
6.749% |
15.282% |
19.212% |
21.771% |
24.673% |
|
11.796% |
|
8.591% |
2.974% |
0.231% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
0.209% |
1.593% |
4.799% |
12.780% |
|
80.610% |
|
41.469% |
27.286% |
10.947% |
0.908% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.027% |
0.375% |
2.198% |
7.235% |
|
90.165% |
|
23.893% |
44.297% |
19.863% |
2.112% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.016% |
0.087% |
0.422% |
1.559% |
|
97.915% |
|
8.103% |
17.649% |
49.995% |
22.118% |
0.050% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
0.119% |
|
99.867% |
|
1.440% |
4.880% |
18.717% |
72.771% |
2.059% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.019% |
2.090% |
97.891% |
Speculate Nemorino 5.27 – Fire 021819 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
70.368% |
26.581% |
2.537% |
0.488% |
|
99.974% |
|
0.026% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
29.147% |
67.819% |
2.715% |
0.304% |
|
99.985% |
|
0.015% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.376% |
4.292% |
63.618% |
24.764% |
|
93.050% |
|
6.872% |
0.078% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.109% |
1.280% |
23.044% |
47.829% |
|
72.262% |
|
25.361% |
2.103% |
0.256% |
0.018% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.028% |
8.049% |
25.125% |
|
33.202% |
|
53.684% |
9.827% |
2.451% |
0.659% |
0.164% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
0.013% |
0.483% |
|
0.496% |
|
7.567% |
55.500% |
19.716% |
10.361% |
4.855% |
1.339% |
|
0.166% |
|
0.159% |
0.006% |
0.001% |
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.553% |
|
0.556% |
|
3.747% |
13.287% |
28.296% |
21.906% |
17.009% |
11.754% |
|
3.445% |
|
2.940% |
0.471% |
0.034% |
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.021% |
0.446% |
|
0.467% |
|
2.242% |
12.960% |
19.984% |
22.282% |
21.577% |
14.751% |
|
5.737% |
|
4.515% |
1.128% |
0.094% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.125% |
2.542% |
13.756% |
23.473% |
26.743% |
24.831% |
|
8.530% |
|
7.760% |
0.752% |
0.018% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
|
0.008% |
|
0.361% |
3.703% |
15.362% |
19.638% |
22.876% |
26.359% |
|
11.693% |
|
8.501% |
2.968% |
0.223% |
0.001% |
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.163% |
1.340% |
4.642% |
12.608% |
|
81.247% |
|
42.075% |
27.413% |
10.858% |
0.901% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.254% |
1.829% |
7.062% |
|
90.847% |
|
24.056% |
44.530% |
20.138% |
2.123% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.069% |
0.299% |
1.188% |
|
98.436% |
|
8.531% |
17.791% |
49.836% |
22.231% |
0.047% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.095% |
|
99.899% |
|
1.463% |
4.941% |
18.773% |
72.832% |
1.890% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.025% |
1.912% |
98.063% |
Speculate Nemorino 5.27 – Fire 021819 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
83.459% |
15.785% |
0.678% |
0.078% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
16.399% |
80.670% |
2.620% |
0.298% |
|
99.987% |
|
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.113% |
2.790% |
65.091% |
25.132% |
|
93.126% |
|
6.865% |
0.009% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.029% |
0.722% |
23.505% |
48.035% |
|
72.291% |
|
25.995% |
1.562% |
0.147% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.033% |
8.083% |
25.308% |
|
33.424% |
|
56.478% |
7.588% |
1.884% |
0.517% |
0.106% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.053% |
|
0.053% |
|
2.865% |
43.522% |
23.235% |
15.479% |
9.816% |
4.007% |
|
1.023% |
|
0.827% |
0.181% |
0.015% |
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.602% |
|
0.605% |
|
4.524% |
19.576% |
24.204% |
20.039% |
16.092% |
11.501% |
|
3.459% |
|
2.973% |
0.461% |
0.025% |
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.020% |
0.487% |
|
0.507% |
|
2.489% |
17.366% |
20.328% |
20.141% |
19.655% |
13.853% |
|
5.661% |
|
4.405% |
1.146% |
0.109% |
0.001% |
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.263% |
4.369% |
14.875% |
23.011% |
25.380% |
23.729% |
|
8.373% |
|
7.604% |
0.751% |
0.018% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
|
0.007% |
|
0.508% |
6.000% |
15.113% |
18.970% |
21.776% |
25.681% |
|
11.945% |
|
8.748% |
2.980% |
0.217% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.176% |
1.411% |
4.773% |
12.399% |
|
81.233% |
|
41.854% |
27.573% |
10.848% |
0.958% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.016% |
0.329% |
2.005% |
7.452% |
|
90.198% |
|
23.985% |
44.299% |
19.772% |
2.142% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.022% |
0.097% |
0.391% |
1.285% |
|
98.205% |
|
8.231% |
17.546% |
50.430% |
21.956% |
0.042% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.006% |
0.090% |
|
99.903% |
|
1.373% |
5.063% |
18.549% |
72.979% |
1.939% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.017% |
1.964% |
98.019% |
Speculate Nemorino 5.27 – Fire 021819 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.848% |
7.008% |
0.137% |
0.007% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.122% |
89.983% |
2.616% |
0.268% |
|
99.989% |
|
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.022% |
2.374% |
65.768% |
25.135% |
|
93.299% |
|
6.682% |
0.019% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.008% |
0.613% |
23.390% |
48.423% |
|
72.434% |
|
26.051% |
1.369% |
0.146% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.022% |
8.068% |
24.962% |
|
33.052% |
|
57.700% |
7.199% |
1.530% |
0.471% |
0.047% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.698% |
|
0.702% |
|
5.204% |
26.168% |
21.377% |
17.860% |
14.509% |
10.853% |
|
3.327% |
|
2.867% |
0.430% |
0.030% |
|
|
7. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
|
0.007% |
|
0.864% |
29.690% |
22.233% |
18.620% |
15.274% |
9.381% |
|
3.931% |
|
2.962% |
0.814% |
0.155% |
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.017% |
0.488% |
|
0.505% |
|
2.623% |
20.393% |
21.762% |
19.081% |
17.519% |
12.732% |
|
5.385% |
|
4.145% |
1.159% |
0.081% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.313% |
6.741% |
17.037% |
22.559% |
23.534% |
21.611% |
|
8.205% |
|
7.477% |
0.704% |
0.024% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.012% |
|
0.012% |
|
0.552% |
8.400% |
15.548% |
19.054% |
20.957% |
23.642% |
|
11.835% |
|
8.480% |
3.109% |
0.245% |
0.001% |
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.017% |
0.304% |
1.797% |
5.295% |
12.585% |
|
80.002% |
|
40.832% |
27.279% |
10.928% |
0.963% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.038% |
0.428% |
2.330% |
7.298% |
|
89.906% |
|
23.558% |
43.765% |
20.406% |
2.177% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.025% |
0.130% |
0.525% |
1.776% |
|
97.540% |
|
8.222% |
17.800% |
49.687% |
21.772% |
0.059% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
0.121% |
|
99.869% |
|
1.457% |
4.940% |
18.421% |
72.922% |
2.129% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.023% |
2.165% |
97.812% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
18.0 |
22.43 |
1.16 |
1.22 |
79 |
19 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
16.5 |
21.23 |
1.09 |
1.88 |
20 |
74 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.0 |
18.84 |
0.97 |
3.52 |
0 |
4 |
55 |
30 |
10 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
18.27 |
1.08 |
4.09 |
0 |
2 |
27 |
42 |
23 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.0 |
17.36 |
1.06 |
5.01 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
20 |
48 |
19 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.14 |
2.74 |
8.15 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
6 |
10 |
16 |
10 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
7 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
11.5 |
15.11 |
1.16 |
7.82 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
22 |
24 |
18 |
13 |
10 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
11.5 |
14.76 |
1.15 |
8.36 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
14 |
19 |
19 |
16 |
14 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
11.5 |
14.53 |
1.15 |
8.76 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
10 |
16 |
18 |
18 |
16 |
12 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
12.0 |
14.28 |
0.97 |
9.24 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
12 |
17 |
20 |
20 |
16 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
11.5 |
14.25 |
1.04 |
9.28 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
12 |
16 |
18 |
19 |
17 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
10.5 |
12.82 |
0.96 |
11.76 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
9 |
19 |
34 |
21 |
8 |
1 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
10.0 |
12.21 |
0.96 |
12.65 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
9 |
23 |
38 |
21 |
2 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
8.5 |
11.42 |
1.12 |
13.61 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
9 |
22 |
46 |
18 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
7.0 |
10.09 |
1.13 |
14.70 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
18 |
72 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
4.5 |
7.27 |
1.12 |
15.95 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-23 14:19 |
206 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-23 15:21 |
207 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-23 16:23 |
208 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-23 17:25 |
209 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-23 18:26 |
210 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
2020-01-23 19:28 |
211 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-23 20:30 |
212 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-23 21:32 |
213 |
Fire 021819 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-23 22:34 |
214 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-23 23:36 |
215 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 00:38 |
216 |
Wasp 3.82 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 01:39 |
217 |
Minic 1.32 |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 02:41 |
218 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 03:43 |
219 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 04:45 |
220 |
Pedone 2.0 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 05:47 |
221 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 06:49 |
222 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 07:50 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 08:52 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 09:54 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 10:56 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 11:58 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 13:00 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 14:02 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 15:03 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 16:05 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 17:07 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 18:09 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 19:11 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 20:13 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 21:15 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 22:16 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 23:18 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-25 00:20 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 01:22 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |